Brexit - The UK leaves the EU

Deal or No Deal?

  • Voted Leave - May's Deal

  • Voted Leave - No Deal

  • Voted Leave - Second Referendum

  • Did not vote/abstained - May's Deal

  • Did not vote/abstained - No Deal

  • Did not vote/abstained - Second Referendum

  • Voted Remain - May's Deal

  • Voted Remain - No Deal

  • Voted Remain - Second Referendum

Results are only viewable after voting.
HenrySwanson
The Lib Dems topped a GE poll conducted by YouGov for The Times and Farage blames....the Brexit party being "hidden from view by the Establishment"....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...erplays-Brexit-Party-surge-hiding-voters.html

No complaints from when polls over-estimated their share of the Euro elections however.
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To be fair, EPE polls on average had TBP at 33.5%, and the last projection I saw was 31%.

Westminster is a slightly different prospect for TBP. They don't have a manifesto of any kind, so all we know is that they want Brexit. That's fine for the European Parliament - for a given value of "fine" - but not so much for five years in government.

The YouGov poll for Westminster voting intentions isn't even that odd. Just so you don't have to click on a Daily Mail link and give ad revenue to the creepy lying nonces, it sits at:
LDP: 24%
TBP: 22%
CON: 19%
LAB: 19%
GRN: 8%
UKI: 1%
CUK: 1%

Survation had TBP at an accurate-ish 31% for the Euros. The same pollsters, on the same day, had this for Westminster:
LAB: 33%
CON: 28%
LDP: 13%
TBP: 12%
GRN: 3%
UKI: 3%
CUK: 2%

Opinium, on May 20th, had the Westminster voting intentions at:
LAB: 26%
TBP: 25%
CON: 22%
LDP: 12%
GRN: 4%
UKI: 2%
CUK: 2%

And, for reference, these are all opinion polls, not exit polls, as we haven't even called a General Election yet, much less voted in one.
 
Famine
To be fair, EPE polls on average had TBP at 33.5%, and the last projection I saw was 31%.

Westminster is a slightly different prospect for TBP. They don't have a manifesto of any kind, so all we know is that they want Brexit. That's fine for the European Parliament - for a given value of "fine" - but not so much for five years in government.

The YouGov poll for Westminster voting intentions isn't even that odd. Just so you don't have to click on a Daily Mail link and give ad revenue to the creepy lying nonces, it sits at:
LDP: 24%
TBP: 22%
CON: 19%
LAB: 19%
GRN: 8%
UKI: 1%
CUK: 1%

Survation had TBP at an accurate-ish 31% for the Euros. The same pollsters, on the same day, had this for Westminster:
LAB: 33%
CON: 28%
LDP: 13%
TBP: 12%
GRN: 3%
UKI: 3%
CUK: 2%

Opinium, on May 20th, had the Westminster voting intentions at:
LAB: 26%
TBP: 25%
CON: 22%
LDP: 12%
GRN: 4%
UKI: 2%
CUK: 2%

And, for reference, these are all opinion polls, not exit polls, as we haven't even called a General Election yet, much less voted in one.
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Oops I stand corrected. Thought I saw them at 36/37% for Euros somewhere.
 
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HenrySwanson
Oops I stand corrected. Thought I saw them at 36/37% for Euros somewhere.
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There was definitely a YouGov poll with TBP at 37%, and another one (I forget which) at 38%. However the mean trendline had them at about 33.5% on May 22nd - the day before the vote started.

For the European elections it was an easy sell: no manifesto, just the clue in the name. They'll likely have less support for a General Election for the same reason: government isn't just Brexit, it's five years of custody for the economy. People like to have a plan for that (although that plan is mainly "take money from people better off than you but not you, don't give it to spongers or spend it on stuff you don't like; make laws to stop stupid people being stupid and punish them, but don't nanny you because you're smart")
 
So ... this looks like a potential watershed moment in UK politics. Given that the GE is not Prop Rep, does this mean that there's a possibility that:

1) TBP will gain a lot of seats (although not a majority) because it has its votes fairly concentrated in certain regions?

2) The Remain vote will be split between Labour, Conservative, LDP & Greens resulting in further gains by TBP?

3) Remainers will rally to LDP, resulting in votes lost to Labour, Conservative & Greens & LDP emerging with the most seats (at least after TBP)?

4) A minority government will be formed by the LDP with the support of Labour & the Greens?

5) There is a complete collapse of the Conservative vote as it splits between TBP & LDP?

Or ... will things revert to business as usual with Conservative & Labour dominating the voting & TBP, LDP & Greens gaining relatively small numbers of votes?

It seems hard to imagine any party winning enough votes to form a majority government.
 
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Touring Mars
In a hung parliament, any seats is a substantial gain for a party who have only ever had one (temporary) MP... the DUP only have 10 MPs and yet they are responsible for delivering us the Theresa May era.

I reckon UKIP and Farage's Brexit party would win at least 10 seats in a General Election if/when Brexit is botched, but I won't be surprised if that is a big underestimate.
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Well, the Brexit party have topped a General Election poll for the first time, which suggest that Farage's party could win as many as 300 seats :ill: The Tories would be decimated...

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...arage-lead-opinion-poll-conservatives-opinium

Now, I doubt that the Brexit party would win as many as 300 seats in a GE, but I reckon that the Brexit party could comfortably score 100 seats unless the Tories unequivocally back a Hard Brexit, which is highly doubtful. Meanwhile, Labour are also facing a fundamental split for the same reason - Labour's self-confessed 'constructive ambiguity' on Brexit has, unsurprisingly, left people totally nonplussed and unable to understand what Labour actually want, let alone how they intend to actually deliver whatever it is they want.

The result is as predictable as it is ironic - the combined 'Remain/revoke' vote is now in danger of being split among four parties (Labour, a 'remainer'-led Tory party, the Lib Dems and the Greens) while, ironically, the Leave vote (which is fundamentally a more complex option) is being focused into a single party (the Brexit party)... that's quite a weird inversion, but this poll shows (scarily) that this could actually be happening.

@Biggles I didn't actually see your post before posting this, but I think it addresses most of your questions!
 
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Touring Mars
Well, the Brexit party have topped a General Election poll for the first time, which suggest that Farage's party could win as many as 300 seats :ill: The Tories would be decimated..
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So could the country be if we're collectively shortsighted enough to sign over its control to a limited company with no policies. I believe Opinium have a track record of overestimating the Brexit vote though.
 
UKMikey
So could the country be if we're collectively shortsighted enough to sign over its control to a limited company with no policies. I believe Opinium have a track record of overestimating the Brexit vote though.
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Yes, I wouldn't read too much into a single poll - but I reckon it is quite likely that there will be more polls with a similar result coming soon.

It is quite disturbing because the projected Brexit party vote is not unrealistically high - it's 'only' 26%, less that their actual vote share in the European election. But it is the splitting of the vote between the other parties that is arguably more disturbing - with the opposition split four ways, a party with just 1/4 of the popular vote could get as much as 300 seats in Parliament, thanks to our wonderful FPTP system and the simultaneous collapse of both major parties.
 
Dotini
This is exceedingly weird, novel and unexpected, IMO.
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Not if you are over here paying attention to what they have been doing and being in possession of a vote to give them the kick in the nuts they deserve.
 
Tired Tyres
Not if you are over here paying attention to what they have been doing and being in possession of a vote to give them the kick in the nuts they deserve.
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I get the impression that your nation is unstable, confused, and at odds with itself. How wrong am I?
 
Dotini
I get the impression that your nation is unstable, confused, and at odds with itself. How wrong am I?
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Very. If you listen to what media outlets put out - it is the end of everything. The reality is people just get on with their lives same as always.
 
Tired Tyres
Not if you are over here paying attention to what they have been doing and being in possession of a vote to give them the kick in the nuts they deserve.
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anigif_enhanced-30901-1421802431-18.gif
 
Tired Tyres
Very. If you listen to what media outlets put out - it is the end of everything. The reality is people just get on with their lives same as always.
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Haha so true. They make it sound like we're all preparing for war already geared up waiting to leave through the door. The media really are the enemy of the people. They do not exist to inform the public or hold politicians to accountability. They exist merely to push agendas, particularly against political opposition.
 
People will get on with their lives no matter what happens. That much is true. So the media/politics stir is just a tempest in a teapot. It's all okay, nothing really matters that much, nothing really needs to get fixed, there are no real meaningful or existential problems here. There are no decisions to make. There is no end, no bottom, no top, just a cool, bland grey. Got it.
 
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Yeah, all over the world in places far worse off than the UK people just get on with their lives.. What's the alternative, sit down and wait to die? We will get on with it, but that doesn't mean there aren't problems that will need addressing.

Personally, I'm ashamed of what our nation has become, not solely because of Brexit - but as I've said before it's exposed cracks... or gaping chasms, within our social and political systems... And these things aren't going to get fixed anytime soon, and certainly not by leaving the EU...

.. What else is there to do but just keep on keeping on?
 
Here's a list of people who have formally declared their intention to run for the leadership of the Conservative Party, and thus become the UK's next Prime Minister. I've also summarised in a few words their 'Brexit stance' and number of MPs who have publicly declared their support (source: Wikipedia/conservativehome.com); I've also listed them in order of the bookmaker's odds (as per the website Oddschecker); I haven't bothered with the lower half as my sister's dog has more chance than they do.

Boris Johnson, 30 MPs in support: Leave the EU on October 31st with or without a deal (odds: 7/4 fav)
Michael Gove, 29 MPs in support: extend Article 50 to 2020; against No Deal (odds: 4/1)
Andrea Leadsom, 4 MPs in support: 'Managed' exit (No Deal/mini-deals) (odds: 6/1)
Dominic Raab, 23 MPs in support: backs No Deal (odds: 7/1)
Jeremy Hunt, 29 MPs in support: would prefer No Deal to No Brexit, but describes No Deal as 'political suicide' (odds: 14/1)
Rory Stewart, 5 MP in support: Theresa May Mk II (odds: 14/1)
Sajid Javid, 17 MPs in support: backs No Deal (odds: 20-25/1)
--
James Cleverly, 4 MPs in support: prefers deal but would accept No Deal
Matt Hancock, 12 MPs in support: Theresa May Mk II Mk II
Esther McVey, 6 MPs in support: backs No Deal
Mark Harper, 5 MPs in support: Voted Remain; wants to renegotiate deal
Kit Malthouse, 7 MPs in support: 'Malthouse Compromise' (Theresa May's deal minus the 'Irish Backstop'; this is the only form of the current 'deal' that has won a majority in the House of Commons but has been rejected by the EU)
Sam Gyimah, 1 MPs in support: wants a second referendum

I am guessing here, but I reckon Raab could end up supporting Johnson and Hunt ends up falling in behind Gove, and it will be a straight choice between Gove and Johnson, with Gove backing the status quo and Johnson taking the UK out of the EU without a deal.

edit: James Cleverly has dropped out and backs Boris Johnson
 
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Touring Mars
Well, the Brexit party have topped a General Election poll for the first time, which suggest that Farage's party could win as many as 300 seats :ill: The Tories would be decimated...

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...arage-lead-opinion-poll-conservatives-opinium

Now, I doubt that the Brexit party would win as many as 300 seats in a GE, but I reckon that the Brexit party could comfortably score 100 seats unless the Tories unequivocally back a Hard Brexit, which is highly doubtful. Meanwhile, Labour are also facing a fundamental split for the same reason - Labour's self-confessed 'constructive ambiguity' on Brexit has, unsurprisingly, left people totally nonplussed and unable to understand what Labour actually want, let alone how they intend to actually deliver whatever it is they want.

The result is as predictable as it is ironic - the combined 'Remain/revoke' vote is now in danger of being split among four parties (Labour, a 'remainer'-led Tory party, the Lib Dems and the Greens) while, ironically, the Leave vote (which is fundamentally a more complex option) is being focused into a single party (the Brexit party)... that's quite a weird inversion, but this poll shows (scarily) that this could actually be happening.

@Biggles I didn't actually see your post before posting this, but I think it addresses most of your questions!
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This is reminiscent of what has happened on a couple of occasions in Canada. Notably, in 1993 the Progressive Conservatives went from having a majority government to winning TWO seats (out of 295). Kim Campbell, dropped into the PM's office when Mulroney stepped down, had the good fortune to preside over this debacle (shades of Teresa May).

The reasons for this were not unlike what is happening now in the UK. The conservative vote was split between the breakaway Reform party - the Brexit party, if you will - & the Progressive Conservatives. The PC vote was further decimated in Quebec by the rise of the Bloc Quebec - a second Brexit party, if you will. However, in the case of the 1993 Canadian election the Liberal party was a beneficiary of these developments, as it was able to move up the middle & take advantage of the split in the conservative vote. The Bloc & the Reform party were, effectively strong regional parties.

There is no equivalent of the Liberal party in the UK ... unless a big bloc of traditional Labour voters moved to the LDP. That doesn't seem all that likely, does it? If the Brexit party looked to be in a position to win a majority, would the LDP, Labour & Greens cooperate to consolidate voting in certain constituencies? That doesn't seem all that likely, does it? If the Brexit party failed to win a majority, would the LDP, Labour & Greens work together to form a colalition government?

What an unbelievable mess ...
 
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Very interesting parallels - we also have another Scottish independence referendum looming too, as if this situation wasn't enough of a mess already.

I reckon the Greens are likely to join a coalition with either Labour or the Lib Dems, but Labour and the Lib Dems might struggle to form a coalition unless Labour ditch Jeremy Corbyn and get behind abandoning Brexit altogether. I can't see that happening though.
 
Touring Mars
Very interesting parallels - we also have another Scottish independence referendum looming too, as if this situation wasn't enough of a mess already.

I reckon the Greens are likely to join a coalition with either Labour or the Lib Dems, but Labour and the Lib Dems might struggle to form a coalition unless Labour ditch Jeremy Corbyn and get behind abandoning Brexit altogether. I can't see that happening though.
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Of course ... I should have mentioned that the SNP is another parallel with the situation in Canada. However, Quebec accounts for more than 19% of the total seats in the Canadian parliament, where Scotland only accounts for about 9% of the total seats in the British parliament. Quebec represents a very important voting presence in Canadian politics & in the last 30 odd years has swung widely from Conservative, to Liberal, to the (separatist) Bloc Quebecois, to NDP, playing a critical role in the fate of each federal government.

My personal stake in Brexit? I went to some trouble to get my two daughters British citizenship. This we considered a gateway to the entire EU. My eldest daughter is attending university in the Netherlands & currently pays (very modest) "EU fees". She is fluent in French & Spanish. Should the UK complete Brexit, I may have to dig deeper to obtain Hungarian citizenship. The unfortunate reality of that, is that the way things are going under Orbán, Magyarexit is a distinct possibility. It's not easy being a member of the global elite. :irked:
 
Dennisch
That's Woody Johnson. He works at Brickleberry National Park.
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Gotcha. Yeah, no...this would be Robert Woody Johnson IV, great grandson of one of the founders of Johnson & Johnson, co-owner (with his brother) of the New York Jets and guy who, if I recall correctly, purchased capital losses at bargain basement prices in order to bilk the IRS out of hundreds of millions of dollars. And now he's a United States Ambassador.
 
TexRex
Gotcha. Yeah, no...this would be Robert Woody Johnson IV, great grandson of one of the founders of Johnson & Johnson, co-owner (with his brother) of the New York Jets and guy who, if I recall correctly, purchased capital losses at bargain basement prices in order to bilk the IRS out of hundreds of millions of dollars. And now he's a United States Ambassador.
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Also his name is, like, penis penis.
 


Worth noting. It’s still such a mess and there is no clear end in site... but, this is the U.K. in the 21stC. A total cluster****.
 

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