Brexit - The UK leaves the EU

[TenEightyOne]

No fixation . My original post was labeled as inaccurate and I merely asked a simple question which has not been answered

I'll ask again, what was the source of the figures you posted on Friday. You claimed they were an Exit Poll - were they?

So you needed a source.

Yes.

I guess there is no Google search in the UK or is the implication that I made it up

All you need to do is post the link to the Exit Poll that you posted on Friday.

 

[Dobermann92]

I think they (the parties of GB) shouldn't stall for time, they couldn't accept the deal so there should be a no deal Brexit, period. It is that easy, because they cannot work out a compromise between the different parties, they showed us that it is impossible. They could rejoin the EU later when they realised their big mistake

 

[UKMikey]

They could rejoin the EU later when they realised their big mistake

Under vastly inferior terms of course. If it's a mistake it's a fairly easy one to spot, why not try and do something to alleviate the pain before it happens? This is what I figure the politicians' thinking to be.

 

[Dotini]

why not try and do something ?

Aye, there's the rub; the insolence of Office. To Brexit or not to Brexit, that is the question, for who would bear the whips and scorns of time, to grunt and sweat under a weary life? And makes us rather bear those ills we have, than fly to others that we know not of. Thus conscience doth make cowards of us all, the native hue of Resolution is sicklied o'er, with the pale cast of Thought.

 

[UKMikey]

Aye, there's the rub; the insolence of Office. To Brexit or not to Brexit, that is the question, for who would bear the whips and scorns of time, to grunt and sweat under a weary life? And makes us rather bear those ills we have, than fly to others that we know not of. Thus conscience doth make cowards of us all, the native hue of Resolution is sicklied o'er, with the pale cast of Thought.

Killing one's uncle is one thing. Killing one's economy is quite another.

 

[baldgye]

I love the idiocy of it all;

Brexit will be good for the country!
Oh wait no it won’t

****ing do it anyway you traitors!!

 

[Dobermann92]

Under vastly inferior terms of course. If it's a mistake it's a fairly easy one to spot, why not try and do something to alleviate the pain before it happens? This is what I figure the politicians' thinking to be.

It won't be inferior to the other states, the UK has priviliges right now, which doesn't make sense if we pretend that all of the EU members are equal. Yes, some of them tried to figure it out but others are stubborn and want to see the failure of the process.

 

[MatskiMonk]

It's interesting that of the UK's say in the European parliment, the strongest affiliation in terms of seats is with the Socialists & Democrats (who have 20.3% of EU seats), via our 10 Labour MEP's. The Brexit party affiliated EFDD, only have 7.1% of seats. I'm not saying this in argument of voting one way or the other (I'm not a fan of voting single issue, or tactically), but in effect, when the UK keeps voting for these Anti-EU parties we give ourselves a smaller voice. People should vote for what they believe in, but fragmenting the vote in favour of single issue parties that aren't interested in actually shaping the future of Europe seems like such a waste. Like having a house party and letting the person who's going home early set the playlist for the night.

 

[Novalee]

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/29/uk/boris-johnson-faces-misconduct-trial-gbr-intl/index.html

This could prove troublesome for boris

 

[baldgye]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48451024

Bloody project fear is at it again! Pfft who needs cars anyway!? When Lord Bojo is FINALLY PM we can all ride Boris Bikes to work! Just like in the Victorian dreams Mogg has!

 

[winet]

I'll ask again, what was the source of the figures you posted on Friday. You claimed they were an Exit Poll - were they?



Yes.



All you need to do is post the link to the Exit Poll that you posted on Friday.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ctions-uk-parties-brexit-labour-conservatives. Was also mentioned in the Daily Mail as well

 

[Famine]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ctions-uk-parties-brexit-labour-conservatives. Was also mentioned in the Daily Mail as well

That wasn't an exit poll, and couldn't possibly have been an exit poll because the article was posted two hours before polling opened.

Exit polls are when people are polled as they exit polling stations. These are usually banned from publication until after the polling stations have closed, because it may affect voter intent. For the European Parliamentary Elections, that was Sunday, May 26, even though the UK's polling stations closed at 10pm on Thursday, May 23, because other European countries did not vote until Sunday, May 26.

The "exit poll" first quoted by Gateway Pundit and then circulated around other, similar sites, was a YouGov projected "voting intention" poll from May 21 - two days before polling opened, so clearly not an exit poll.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48451024

Bloody project fear is at it again! Pfft who needs cars anyway!? When Lord Bojo is FINALLY PM we can all ride Boris Bikes to work! Just like in the Victorian dreams Mogg has!

This is an odd one.

April's production is well down because car manufacturers scheduled a shutdown (they usually shut down in the summer, but they brought it forward) because Brexit means Brexit and it was definitely happening on March 29th. And it didn't, but you can't unschedule a shutdown.

So this isn't because of Brexit or uncertainty or a change/downturn in trade, but it is because of Brexit in the sense that there was possibly going to be a change in trade because Brexit was supposed to happen but there wasn't because it didn't.

 

[baldgye]

This is an odd one.

April's production is well down because car manufacturers scheduled a shutdown because Brexit means Brexit and it was definitely happening on March 29th. And it didn't, but you can't unschedule a shutdown.

So this isn't because of Brexit or uncertainty or a change/downturn in trade, but it is because of Brexit in the sense that there was going to be a change in trade because Brexit was supposed to happen but there wasn't because it didn't.

It's also not going to be repeated for the actual Brexit (assuming it happens in October)... which, sounds like it could be a massive disaster? In theory if they don't lower production wouldn't they just have thousands of cars just sat around unable to send them out to destination countries?

 

[Famine]

It's also not going to be repeated for the actual Brexit (assuming it happens in October)... which, sounds like it could be a massive disaster? In theory if they don't lower production wouldn't they just have thousands of cars just sat around unable to send them out to destination countries?

Essentially, it was the usual Summer shutdown brought forward to Spring - and across the whole supply chain; demand for bits dropped because people stopped making cars, so component plants shut down too. The idea was to ameliorate the effects of a drop in demand for the product if there was a change in trading conditions.

With the Summer shutdown in Spring instead, manufacturing is likely to be at normal levels year-to-date by September. As for what'll happen come October... *shrug*

 

[TenEightyOne]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ctions-uk-parties-brexit-labour-conservatives. Was also mentioned in the Daily Mail as well

So it wasn't an exit poll as you claimed, at least you came back to clear it up.

 

[winet]

So it wasn't an exit poll as you claimed, at least you came back to clear it up.

It was a preliminary exit poll but because you don't like the results of the poll it wasn't valid but you can call it whatever floats your boat. I only grabbed the headline from a website in the US. By the way . Didn't you already vote to leave the EU once already. Is it two out of three ?

 

[Famine]

It was a preliminary exit poll but because you don't like the results of the poll it wasn't valid but you can call it whatever floats your boat.

A "preliminary" exit poll? No such thing. Exit polls are called that because they poll people exiting the polling stations. They're also illegal to publish before polls have closed (which in this case was Sunday, May 26).

The YouGov voting intentions poll with the projected 37% figure - which Gateway Pundit first, wrongly, called an exit poll (with the exact phrase you pasted) before it was picked up by other, similar outlets - was gathered a week before polling opened and published two days before polling opened. You posted it a day after UK polls closed, at which point it would have still been illegal to publish if it were actually an exit poll. It wasn't illegal to publish voting intention polls though - you can publish any other poll at all so long as the information is not gathered from polling actual voters directly.

Several voting intentions polls had TBP at 30% and up - one at 38% - and the final result was 30.5%. It's got nothing to do with liking it or not, it's just not an exit poll even if the sites you got it from wrongly called it that. The reason @TenEightyOne likely asked is because it would be literally a criminal offence for a site to publish an exit poll in the middle of polling.

 

[TenEightyOne]

It was a preliminary exit poll but because you don't like the results of the poll it wasn't valid but you can call it whatever floats your boat.

You still don't get that it wasn't an exit poll. The voting was largely split along the same lines as the referendum vote, depending on how you attribute Brexit positioning to each party.

Didn't you already vote to leave the EU once already. Is it two out of three ?

I'm not sure what you mean? It's three years since the vote was taken, it's accepted that opinions shift over that time (which is why we've had General Elections more frequently than that). Given that the countries know a lot more now it would make sense (imo) to put a proper vote to them. Personally I still think it should be along the lines of Leave(Deal), Leave(NoDeal), Remain.

Remember that two countries voted to Remain and two voted to Leave. The two that voted remain are split on the subject of independence, and one stands to see a return to the conditions of civil war if they Leave. Getting it right is very important for supporters of a Kingdom and otherwise.

 

[baldgye]

It was a preliminary exit poll...

Exit Poll - An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations.

Preliminary - preceding or done in preparation for something fuller or more important.

 

[Dennisch]

Exit polls are when people are polled as they exit polling stations. These are usually banned from publication until after the polling stations have closed, because it may affect voter intent.

Is this for the whole of Europe, because we had our exit polls Thursday evening already.

 

[Famine]

Is this for the whole of Europe, because we had our exit polls Thursday evening already.

Yes. Apparently no.

They're not published because they can affect voter intent - if the countries voting Thursday publish exit polls indicating one party is winning, voters in other countries may choose to vote differently on other days as they may believe that party doesn't need their vote, or countering that party's vote, or even whether to vote or not. As it's an election for a parliament, the whole thing is taken as active polling, from the first polls opening to the last closing.

 

[Dennisch]

Yes. They're not published because they can affect voter intent - if the countries voting Thursday publish exit polls indicating one party is winning, voters in other countries may choose to vote differently on other days as they may believe that party doesn't need their vote, or countering that party's vote, or even whether to vote or not. As it's an election for a parliament, the whole thing is taken as active polling, from the first polls opening to the last closing.

If that's actually an exit poll from Thursday, someone is in a lot of trouble. If it's merely labelled as one, like the one mentioned above, it's just a crappy outlet.

It is an actual exit poll, performed by Ipsos, ordered by the NOS (Dutch Broadcasting Foundation)

 

[TenEightyOne]

It is an actual exit poll, performed by Ipsos, ordered by the NOS (Dutch Broadcasting Foundation)

Seemingly it's UK law that bans us from publishing exit polls until ballots are revealed, not EU law in general.

Just more proof that we're the servants of Europe etc. etc., as soon as we give top power back to our unelected Lords the better!

 

[Dennisch]

Seemingly it's UK law that bans us from publishing exit polls until ballots are revealed, not EU law in general.

Just more proof that we're the servants of Europe etc. etc., as soon as we give top power back to our unelected Lords the better!

Silence, servant.

 

[Famine]

Seemingly it's UK law that bans us from publishing exit polls until ballots are revealed, not EU law in general.

This is weird, as everything I've seen says it's law across Europe - but it looks like Ireland had exit polls published after polling closed there on May 25th.

I guess we're just the fair play people of Europe.

 

[winet]

The post he "liked" didn't imply anything of the sort. It asked for a source because the user, @TenEightyOne, thought exit polls weren't legally allowed to be published until Sunday.

And he's right, they weren't - so whatever you posted on Friday could not have been an exit poll, as you stated it was. But you never provided a source for it either.

The reason exit polls weren't allowed until Sunday is because, while the UK voted on Thursday, much of Europe did not vote until Sunday and publishing UK exit polls may have influenced votes in other countries.

So it was a correct poll with no exit . Got it

Is this for the whole of Europe, because we had our exit polls Thursday evening already.

But but but but that is just not possible !!!!!! How dare you

You still don't get that it wasn't an exit poll. The voting was largely split along the same lines as the referendum vote, depending on how you attribute Brexit positioning to each party.



I'm not sure what you mean? It's three years since the vote was taken, it's accepted that opinions shift over that time (which is why we've had General Elections more frequently than that). Given that the countries know a lot more now it would make sense (imo) to put a proper vote to them. Personally I still think it should be along the lines of Leave(Deal), Leave(NoDeal), Remain.

Remember that two countries voted to Remain and two voted to Leave. The two that voted remain are split on the subject of independence, and one stands to see a return to the conditions of civil war if they Leave. Getting it right is very important for supporters of a Kingdom and otherwise.

No 1 It was called an exit poll at the website I read it on. Basically who cares. It was accurate which is what really burns your arze
No 2 What I mean is the UK already voted to leave the EU in 2016 . I thought you lived in a democracy ?
No 3 So Brexit was a referendum conducted in four countries and all the votes were added together, Nope
No 4 It amazes me you want unelected officials making decisions for you as a citizen of the UK

 

[baldgye]

No 1 It was called an exit poll at the website I read it on. Basically who cares. It was accurate which is what really burns your arze
No 2 What I mean is the UK already voted to leave the EU in 2016 . I thought you lived in a democracy ?
No 3 So Brexit was a referendum conducted in four countries and all the votes were added together, Nope
No 4 It amazes me you want unelected officials making decisions for you as a citizen of the UK

This is the kind of deep intellectual discussion I crave

 

[TenEightyOne]

No 1 It was called an exit poll at the website I read it on. Basically who cares. It was accurate which is what really burns your arze

I accept that the prediction was accurate so your attempt to obfuscate your error is misplaced. It wasn't an exit poll, get over it.

No 2 What I mean is the UK already voted to leave the EU in 2016 . I thought you lived in a democracy ?

We also voted for a Conservative majority but that was overruled in a new election. We live in a democracy.

No 3 So Brexit was a referendum conducted in four countries and all the votes were added together, Nope

Yes, that's what happened. If you don't have a grasp of that basic fact then... well.

No 4 It amazes me you want unelected officials making decisions for you as a citizen of the UK

Me too, that's why I think we should stay in the EU. We elect the EU parliament, we don't elect the UK House of Lords - those positions are given arbitrarily with no vote and are for life.

This is the kind of deep intellectual discussion I crave

Blerp.

 

[UKMikey]

I accept that the prediction was accurate so your attempt to obfuscate your error is misplaced. It wasn't an exit poll, get over it.

The truth is that the result was what we expected and I wouldn't've minded some accurate confirmation at the time, just that I was incredulous that an exit poll would come out before the UK deadline. Whether it was right or not meant nothing before the deadline was up.

That's what @Famine explained to the poster at length and is why I liked your original post. I suspect this'll be lost on him though as is the convention not to double or triple post or harass individual posters.

[EDIT] This just in...

 

[Famine]

So it was a correct poll with no exit . Got it

No 1 It was called an exit poll at the website I read it on. Basically who cares. It was accurate which is what really burns your arze

Actually it was neither an exit poll nor accurate.

On the matter of caring what it's called... well, there's a huge difference between voting intention polling and exit polls. One polls voters before they vote, and may be published whenever, while the other polls voters at polling stations after they have actually voted and is not legal to publish during polling.

It's important to spot when your news sources are not telling you the truth. In this instance you've read a site telling you that the Brexit Party is winning in exit polls at 37% - that site originally being Gateway Pundit (the dead giveaway being the literally copy-paste you did of its headline "Exit Polls: Nigel Farage and Brexit Party Leading in Britain with 37 Percent of Vote!"), although it was also picked up by Teaparty.org, Conservative Treehouse and the Reddit channel "The Europe", along with a random Youtuber with a lazy eye who seems to specialise in reading articles from these sites out loud, all using the exact same headline.

However, it's not an exit poll - as even a fraction of a second of research would show. It's a YouGov poll from May 21st, two days before the polling, gathered on May 19-21 for the Times.


On the matter of accuracy, here's the numbers from the YouGov poll in question:
TBP - 37%
LDP - 19%
Lab - 13%
Gre - 12%
Con - 7%
CUK - 4%
UKI - 3%
Oth - 6%

(you'll note that adds up to 101%, because of rounding)

Here's the actual results, rounded to whole percentages:
TBP - 31% (-6)
LDP - 20% (+1)
Lab - 14% (+1)
Gre - 13% (+1)
Con - 9% (+2)
CUK - 3% (-1)
UKI - 3% (-)

All the polls had TBP at 30%+ (the mean trendline was at 33.5%) and the next leading party at 15-20% (split between Labour and the Lib Dems), as I have no idea why you'd think this one particular poll would involve any anal burning to anyone. The question was simply how it was an exit poll published when exit polls weren't allowed to be published.

The answer is "it wasn't, but your chosen media sites told you it was - so perhaps be a little more sceptical of what these sites present you in future, particularly with regards to non-US politics".