Britain - The Official Thread

[DLR_Mysterion]

I wonder what May would do if she was asked the question....(or has she been?)

 

[Stotty]

Sure, but woe betide any political party that says no to an election, lest they be forever deemed 'undemocratic'; Corbyn has since said he welcomes a general election, and the SNP have little to fear from such a move either - if anything it gives the opposition a chance they weren't expecting to get, so why would they oppose it? May's confidence that she can solidify support behind her Brexit agenda could easily backfire, but something tells me that there will not be any significant changes between the 2015 and 2017 results, other than the fact that Theresa May will be able to say that she is a genuinely elected leader (well, as far as that is possible in UK politics at least).

My post was more aimed at the 'lefties', who were insinuating this was a opportunist move... Fact remains that May cannot call an election on her own. Labour could prevent it if they so wished (and probably should given their complete disarray).

Overall, I think it's a good thing for the country. Brexit is going to be a difficult process, and with trade negotiations, will drag on for more than 2 years. A solid majority, and no election during the process should provide a stable political base, which will at least help with FTSE and Sterling stability (both are going to be in for some big ups and downs over the next few years even without election worries).

Of course is Pen gets elected it will all become a mute subject as Europe will be done as we know it within 5 years.

 

[Touring Mars]

I think it is both opportunistic and a good move given the circumstances - it may also bizarrely help Labour a bit, as it will give Corbyn the opportunity to leave as well as giving Labour longer to regroup before the next (scheduled) election, albeit 2 years further away than before. But arguably, the Brexit negotiations have to be the top priority and having a GE during these critical transitional years would make things even more complex than they already are.

The French elections kick off very soon and who knows what will happen there - Le Pen is still not fancied to win overall, but the sudden emergence of a leftwing firebrand to split the non-right wing vote might just give Le Pen a crucial boost and hurt the others more than her. If, however, Le Pen does pull off an unlikely victory, it will be time to crack out the popcorn as there will be a 🤬-storm of epic proportions.

 

[UKMikey]

Had the Liberal Democrats used their previous time as part of the governing coalition to push for a reform of the voting system, perhaps they'd be in a better position to fight this one. Right now Labour are looking like a better option than the Lib Dems for my vote and Labour are a complete mess.

 

[Liquid]

Right now Labour are looking like a better option than the Lib Dems for my vote and Labour are a complete mess.

Which party is closer to your beliefs or closer to your conviction on how a country should be governed?

 

[UKMikey]

Which party is closer to your beliefs or closer to your conviction on how a country should be governed?

The one which would change the voting system so that I wouldn't be stuck with the same party for eternity no matter who I voted for.

 

[TenEightyOne]

The one which would change the voting system so that I wouldn't be stuck with the same party for eternity no matter who I voted for.

That would be the Liberals then, those on the left seem content with the current system and the Conservatives invented the current system.

 

[UKMikey]

That would be the Liberals then, those on the left seem content with the current system and the Conservatives invented the current system.

On paper maybe but they didn't seem interested in doing anything about reform last time they were in power as I said above.

 

[TenEightyOne]

On paper maybe but they didn't seem interested in doing anything about reform last time they were in power as I said above.

They forced the Conservative majority in their partnership to hold a public referendum on Proportional Representation... but apart from that...

 

[PeterJB]

I haven't got a clue who to vote for, I'm pretty much at a 20% split with the five main parties.

 

[Famine]

I haven't got a clue who to vote for, I'm pretty much at a 20% split with the five main parties.

Are your local candidates really that close to one another?

 

[PeterJB]

Are your local candidates really that close to one another?

I'll confess I haven't yet looked at who's running in Chippenham, but with the Tories, Labour, UKIP, Lib Dems and Greens as a whole I can find a pretty much equal amount of common ground with all of them. I voted Green two years ago, but that ship has sailed for me. I can agree with the Tories on immigration and foreign policy and they give a relative degree of stability, but on principle I can't vote for them because they appear to have no interest in the majority of people they serve and are desperate to privatise the NHS. Labour are more concerned with lower income earners and I absolutely agree with Corbyn over the trade deal with Saudi Arabia, but on the whole are not enormously different from the Tories and are a complete mess at the moment. UKIP offer a different, more populist approach to right-wing politics but have very little credibility, and have some incredibly slimy individuals among their ranks. The Lib Dems warm up to my social democrat side but haven't proved very trustworthy, although they could profit from this. And I'm all for progressive environmental and energy policies, and helping the needy and disabled, but not legalising marijuana and prostitution, an open-doors immigration policy, or a proposed three-day weekend.

Anything other than the Tories feels like a wasted vote but it would take a lot of convincing to get me to trust them.

 

[ExigeEvan]

Had the Liberal Democrats used their previous time as part of the governing coalition to push for a reform of the voting system, perhaps they'd be in a better position to fight this one.

They got us a referendum on proportional representation, and tried to extend the vote to 16 and 17 yr olds.

They also disenfranchised a whole generation to politics, but moving on from that...

 

[Famine]

I'll confess I haven't yet looked at who's running in Chippenham, but with the Tories, Labour, UKIP, Lib Dems and Greens as a whole I can find a pretty much equal amount of common ground with all of them.

For the first three that shouldn't be much of a surprise - they can be considered three flavours of broadly the same position - however the Green party's position is pretty much diametrically opposed to those three and Lib Dems are a little way away from the group, though they have been wandering closer since 2007:

(if you're unfamiliar with the compass, the chart should be read with social issues on the vertical axis [more laws at the top, fewer at the bottom] and financial issues on the horizontal axis [more laws on the left, fewer on the right])

But you don't elect the Prime Minister, you don't elect a party and you don't elect a government. You elect your local representative, so you should be looking at what your local candidates to be your representative say.

 

[ExigeEvan]

But you don't elect the Prime Minister, you don't elect a party and you don't elect a government. You elect your local representative, so you should be looking at what your local candidates to be your representative say.

Or more importantly if incumbent, how they have previously voted.

 

[Biggles]

For the first three that shouldn't be much of a surprise - they can be considered three flavours of broadly the same position - however the Green party's position is pretty much diametrically opposed to those three and Lib Dems are a little way away from the group, though they have been wandering closer since 2007:

​

​

Who came up with this chart? The Liberal Democrats & Labour way over to the Right? Really? This goes back to the discussion of what constitutes the "Left" in the US - it all depends on how & where you locate the "centre".

 

[Famine]

Who came up with this chart?

Politicalcompass.org

The Liberal Democrats & Labour way over to the Right? Really?

Yes. Both are more in favour of fiscal conservatism than fiscal socialism - with Labour, still emerging from the New Labour days of Conservatism with red ties, gradually moving to the left. Both parties are notably less fiscally conservative than the Conservatives (shock, I know) and UKIP (which is racist Conservatives), with Labour being only marginally more socially liberal and the Liberal Democrats less socially liberal than 5 years previously:

This goes back to the discussion of what constitutes the "Left" in the US - it all depends on how & where you locate the "centre".

Centre is neither consistently fiscally socialist nor fiscally conservative, and neither consistently socially liberal nor socially authoritarian. Left is more consistently fiscally socialist and right is more consistently fiscally conservative.

Broadly, the Conservatives change little in being fiscally conservative and socially authoritarian, while the Liberal Democrats - having had a taste of power - are becoming less liberal and more conservative. Labour practically occupied the same position as the Conservatives with their blend of crony capitalism under 'New Labour' of Blair, Brown, Mandelson and Campbell, but have been wandering leftwards towards the centre in more recent years since discarding the dead duck and New Labour throwback Miliband. If you want leftism in UK politics, you go for a nationalist party (other than the BNP, which is dead in the water now anyway) or Greens.

 

[Biggles]

I had never looked at the Political Compass website, although I had taken the "chart test". It's going to take some time to absorb, but I see a bunch of issues with it. For one thing it appears, at least in the context of US politics, to be very Euro-centric & perhaps Anglo-centric. The chart is based on a list of questions that can be answered by an individual to create a position on the intersecting axes, I'm not sure I understand how the positions are arrived at for the political parties?

 

[TenEightyOne]

Politicalcompass.orgYes. Both are more in favour of fiscal conservatism than fiscal socialism - with Labour, still emerging from the New Labour days of Conservatism with red ties, gradually moving to the left.

Am I right in thinking that that graph shows New Labour in 2010? I'd expect New New Labour under Corbyn to have moved back to its pre-Blair position somewhat.

 

[Liquid]

I would be interested to know why these parties drift towards the upper right and not in any other direction.

Some parties such as Plaid Cymru and maybe the SNP have instead drifted somewhat towards the lower left than they previously might have been.

 

[Famine]

Am I right in thinking that that graph shows New Labour in 2010?

The first was 2015 (so Miliband's New Labour) and the second was 2010 (so still Blair/Brown/Mandelson/Campbell's New Labour). I too would expect some leftward ambling under Corbyn - but not a huge amount and almost certainly no liberalisation.

I would be interested to know why these parties drift towards the upper right and not in any other direction.

That's where two thirds of the voters are. Generally, people believe:
* They should not have to pay so much tax
* Rich people (people with more money than them) should pay more taxes
* Poor people (people with less money than them) should not get so many handouts
* They should be free to do whatever they want because they're intelligent and know what's best for them
* Rich people are white collar criminals and should be prevented from doing rich people things, which are evil
* Poor people are stupid/chavs/criminals and should be prevented from doing poor people things

It's basically an extension of 'anyone who drives slower than me is dangerous, anyone who drives faster than me is a maniac'. The top right corner panders to this mindset of wanting to keep hold of their own money which they earned (capitalism), while rich people have too much or didn't earn it and poor people shouldn't get handouts because they're lazy, while wanting laws against everything (authoritarianism) except for them because they're intelligent and special.

 

[Liquid]

Ah yes, Mary Whitehouse Syndrome.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Gorton (I lived there once by accident, a **** hole) is to cancel the by-election caused by the death of Gerald Kaufmann. There is no formal ruling on how to deal with a by-election that would occur after parliament is dissolved in advance of a GE but there is, we're told, a similar precedent from 1923. BBC.

 

[Touring Mars]

An excellent synopsis of the situation in Britain right now...

 

[Liquid]

I don't know whether it is only Tory MPs involved but it was very dilligent of the PM to sidestep this issue completely.

 

[Stotty]

I think it is both opportunistic and a good move given the circumstances - it may also bizarrely help Labour a bit, as it will give Corbyn the opportunity to leave as well as giving Labour longer to regroup before the next (scheduled) election, albeit 2 years further away than before. But arguably, the Brexit negotiations have to be the top priority and having a GE during these critical transitional years would make things even more complex than they already are.

The French elections kick off very soon and who knows what will happen there - Le Pen is still not fancied to win overall, but the sudden emergence of a leftwing firebrand to split the non-right wing vote might just give Le Pen a crucial boost and hurt the others more than her. If, however, Le Pen does pull off an unlikely victory, it will be time to crack out the popcorn as there will be a 🤬-storm of epic proportions.

For Pen to get elected, all that needs to happen is some form of terrorist incident in France in the few weeks leading up to the election.

If she does get in, I think this put the UK in a generally stronger position, but unfortunately, I also think the threat of a Euroland break up would lead to a major Global economic catastrophe (bigger than 07/08).

 

[UKMikey]

If she does get in, I think this put the UK in a generally stronger position

What would it put us in a stronger position to do?

Telegraph

There are some hardcore Brexiteers who believe that a Le Pen victory might be good for Britain’s prospects in the Brexit talks, since it would land a potentially fatal blow on the EU, an institution that they revile.

But this is not a view shared by Theresa May or British negotiators who fear that a shock Le Pen presidency would sow chaos in the EU, making Britain’s negotiating partners even more defensive and hardline, possibly paralysing EU decision-making to the point where it is impossible to do a deal in two years.

 

[Touring Mars]

A Le Pen presidency would mean France would hold a referendum on EU membership, but it's not certain that France would vote to leave... the fact is, France can't just vote to leave like the UK has already done because it is also a member of the Euro; that makes leaving the EU a completely different prospect for France. But even the act of a large Eurozone member instigating a referendum on EU membership (or even Eurozone membership) would basically force the EU to rethink its entire strategy, and if that were to happen then I reckon that they will have more than enough on their plate already, hence they ought to be a lot less inclined to make heavy-weather of Brexit negotiations, which will be small beer in comparison to the possible collapse of the Eurozone and possibly the entire EU itself.

 

[Stotty]

What would it put us in a stronger position to do?

Telegraph

Started to reply, but @Touring Mars has pretty much said what I was going to say myself

Germany will do anything and everything to prevent the break up of the Euro... they are screwed if the Euro collapses!

 

[UKMikey]

A Le Pen presidency would mean France would hold a referendum on EU membership, but it's not certain that France would vote to leave... the fact is, France can't just vote to leave like the UK has already done because it is also a member of the Euro; that makes leaving the EU a completely different prospect for France. But even the act of a large Eurozone member instigating a referendum on EU membership (or even Eurozone membership) would basically force the EU to rethink its entire strategy, and if that were to happen then I reckon that they will have more than enough on their plate already, hence they ought to be a lot less inclined to make heavy-weather of Brexit negotiations, which will be small beer in comparison to the possible collapse of the Eurozone and possibly the entire EU itself.

So in answer to my question, then, it'd put us in a stronger position to negotiate an exit from the EU, not necessarily a stronger economic position overall?