Britain - The Official Thread

[TRGTspecialist]

Whilst it's looking like an easy victory for the Tories, here's how bad UK opinion polls have been over the years:

5-6 points off on average. So all bets are off as to what the margin of victory might be. The comfortable majority in the commons May is seeking is not guaranteed - but likewise, the possibility of getting over 50% of the vote can't be entirely ruled out either. The last time a party won a majority of votes cast was the 1931 election.

 

[Touring Mars]

So in answer to my question, then, it'd put us in a stronger position to negotiate an exit from the EU, not necessarily a stronger economic position overall?

I would have thought so, but pundits on Sky News last night appeared to differ. Their analysis was similar to what you originally said, in that they believe that a Le Pen presidency would force the EU to close ranks and thus make things even harder for the UK; conversely, a Macron presidency (now looking extremely likely) would do the opposite - with the EU able to breathe a sigh of relief and not worry about France leaving, it will not need to adopt such a hard line against the UK. I'm not sure I believe that myself - but I do think a Macron presidency in France will make things easier in general by virtue of the fact that Brexit negotiations would almost certainly be significantly hampered if the EU were pre-occupied by a potential Frexit as well.

 

[Dotini]

a Macron presidency (now looking extremely likely)

I have but a limited understanding of French politics, but that's not going to prevent me from predicting a far closer result than you might imagine. I think Le Pen will pick up roughly two thirds of Melenchon's support and one third of Fillon's. Still a loss, but close. If rookie player Manny Macron fumbles the ball, Le Pen will loom ever larger next time around.

 

[Tired Tyres]

a Macron presidency (now looking extremely likely)

Why is it looking likely?

 

[TRGTspecialist]

Why is it looking likely?

Polls.

A huge polling error (like, 3-4x the error in the Brexit polls huge) and a big Le Pen comeback in just two weeks doesn't seem likely.

 

[Touring Mars]

Macron has played a canny game - he's successfully portrayed himself as an independent and a centerist, cherry-picking policies from the left and the right in order to appeal to people on both sides of the political spectrum. He's also seen/portrayed himself as an outsider and anti-establishment - the irony being that he is pretty far from that... but the perception is that he is a new broom, and not afraid to challenge the status quo - in short, he has widespread appeal and has now also garnered the backing of the establishment while also appearing to be outside of it himself - a neat trick if you can do it!

I think it would take something drastic to happen in order for Le Pen to win now - short of Putin rigging the French elections or a major terrorist incident occuring, Le Pen basically needs a miracle to beat Macron... it's not impossible, but Le Pen's appeal is fairly limited in a country that is ostensibly still very much pro-EU and multicultural/multi-racial.


edit: The Grauniad seem to think Le Pen still has a shot though:

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...nch-presidency-front-national-emmanuel-macron

 

[Dennisch]

Polls.

A huge polling error (like, 3-4x the error in the Brexit polls huge) and a big Le Pen comeback in just two weeks doesn't seem likely.

Remember how it was impossible for Trump to become President, according to the polls?

 

[ExigeEvan]

I don't know what this even means...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39696861

Marine Le Pen says she's stepping aside as leader of far-right National Front party as she seeks French presidency

 

[Touring Mars]

I don't know what this even means...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39696861

Smacks slightly (OK, alot-ly) of Nigel Farage stepping down as leader of UKIP... for a bit.

Marine Le Pen has already rebranded herself "Marine" because 'Le Pen' is synonymous with her racist father, Jean Marie Le Pen....

...clearly, Front National is also toxic to her latest brand of not-racistness.

 

[Liquid]

I do enjoy a politician who sticks to their principles.

 

[TRGTspecialist]

Remember how it was impossible for Trump to become President, according to the poll?

Nah. It was pundits who looked at close and uncertain polls within typical error but decided Clinton's a dead cert anyway because they couldn't comprehend the possibility of a Trump victory. Same with Brexit. That's on them rather than the pollsters............so no surprise who they decided to blame really.



This just isn't in the same ballpark right now. Error in the Brexit polls (~4 points) and the US election polls (~2 points) combined still doesn't get Le Pen level. A massive Macron scandal being uncovered in the next few days would make me think twice about her chances. (and okay, since this is France, that definitely isn't impossible........)

 

[PeterJB]

Remember how it was impossible for Trump to become President, according to the polls?

Or Britain to leave?

 

[mistersafeway]

(and okay, since this is France, that definitely isn't impossible........)

Yeah, but why would a Frenchman considering running for office be helpful to an English speaking tourist?...

 

[Tired Tyres]

Or Britain to leave?

Or the Conservatives winning the last General Election.

 

[UKMikey]

Yeah, but TRGT covered all those examples in his last two posts and explained why they might not apply to Marine so much.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Frexit

Frortie? Doesn't have the same ring, I agree.

 

[mistersafeway]

So, I caught a little of I think it would've been PM's questions, and I was massively disappointed by what I saw. I saw it a few times while "Dave" was PM, and while I usually (okay, pretty much always) disagreed with what he said, he at least answered questions and usually in an intelligent way. Theresa May didn't seem like she had an answer for anything. Somebody would bring up the NHS, she'd respond by saying something like 'we support the NHS', somebody brought up a previous promise about the pension going up by 2.5% per year, she said 'the pension will keep going up every year', a couple of times she was asked something she clearly had no answer to... how do I know she had no answer? She went right back to 'we'll have a stronger economy and stronger leadership under a Conservative government'. Do people really fall for that 🤬? It's like nobody ever listens to her speak, she doesn't seem to have a plan for what she's doing or the ability to think on her feet. Hillary Clinton lost the US election for that reason even though she was running against a narcissistic idiot who advocated murder 'we've got to take out their [terrorists'] families' and sexual assault 'I grab 'em by the [genitals]*, I don't even wait'. So why do I get the feeling Theresa May will actually win?

*We all know he said "cat", but I'm not sure if that's an AUP violation if said in that sense...

 

[Dotini]

So, I caught a little of I think it would've been PM's questions, and I was massively disappointed by what I saw. I saw it a few times while "Dave" was PM, and while I usually (okay, pretty much always) disagreed with what he said, he at least answered questions and usually in an intelligent way. Theresa May didn't seem like she had an answer for anything. Somebody would bring up the NHS, she'd respond by saying something like 'we support the NHS', somebody brought up a previous promise about the pension going up by 2.5% per year, she said 'the pension will keep going up every year', a couple of times she was asked something she clearly had no answer to... how do I know she had no answer? She went right back to 'we'll have a stronger economy and stronger leadership under a Conservative government'. Do people really fall for that 🤬? It's like nobody ever listens to her speak, she doesn't seem to have a plan for what she's doing or the ability to think on her feet. Hillary Clinton lost the US election for that reason even though she was running against a narcissistic idiot who advocated murder 'we've got to take out their [terrorists'] families' and sexual assault 'I grab 'em by the [genitals]*, I don't even wait'. So why do I get the feeling Theresa May will actually win?

*We all know he said "cat", but I'm not sure if that's an AUP violation if said in that sense...

Is there a provision your law for removing or replacing the PM in the event of stroke, mental/emotional breakdown or other partially incapacitating personality disorder?

 

[TheCracker]

Is there a provision your law for removing or replacing the PM in the event of stroke, mental/emotional breakdown or other partially incapacitating personality disorder?

No need. Incompetency has been a prerequisite for all Prime Ministers for a number of decades now. Perhaps longer.

 

[mistersafeway]

Is there a provision your law for removing or replacing the PM in the event of stroke, mental/emotional breakdown or other partially incapacitating personality disorder?

None that I've heard of. She could foam at the mouth for all I cared, but I want to hear some plans. If she doesn't want to put more money into the NHS then she should explain why, same with the pension increase, or any other issue. A politician who talks about having great plans that they can't specify should be considered untrustworthy by the electorate by default, but it seems like it's the opposite for a lot of them. Like or dislike Corbyn, he's happy to specify what he wants to do. 👍

 

[Liquid]

Is there a provision your law for removing or replacing the PM in the event of stroke, mental/emotional breakdown or other partially incapacitating personality disorder?

Prime Ministers have resigned due to health reasons in the past but the monarch no longer has the power to dismiss the Prime Minister nor appoint one contrary to the will of Parliament, both having last happened in the 1830s, and I don't think there is a specific clause for removal of the PM except a motion of no confidence in the government.

 

[Dotini]

Prime Ministers have resigned due to health reasons in the past but the monarch no longer has the power to dismiss the Prime Minister or appoint one contrary to the will of Parliament, both having last happened in the 1830s, and I don't think there is a specific clause for removal of the PM except a motion of no confidence in the government.

We have the 25th Amendment. In addition to the congressional impeachment process.

 

[Touring Mars]

We have the 25th Amendment. In addition to the congressional impeachment process.

We have politically suicidal referendums.

 

[Dotini]

We have politically suicidal referendums.

Well, that fixed Cameron (if he needed fixing). What will do for May?

 

[Liquid]

Well, that fixed Cameron (if he needed fixing). What will do for May?

Anybody taking even a cursory glance at what she's doing, done, supported, been behind, acknowledged, permitted and ordered.

But even then I doubt that will dissuade the electorate. For some reason.

 

[Pupik]

Well, that fixed Cameron (if he needed fixing). What will do for May?

If history is any guide, someone named "June" might take the helm.

 

[Dotini]

Anybody taking even a cursory glance at what she's doing, done, supported, been behind, acknowledged, permitted and ordered.

But even then I doubt that will dissuade the electorate. For some reason.

If you are being serious, I hear you saying the electorate is disconnected with reality. Is democracy in your land therefore to be judged a failure? How might it be fixed or replaced?

 

[mistersafeway]

But even then I doubt that will dissuade the electorate. For some reason.

If you're serious when you say that, I'm glad I'm not the only one, I get the feeling she'll somehow win no matter what she does. Maybe it's just that everyone thinks that everyone else thinks Corbyn is unelectable and she's trying to fan that flame so she doesn't have to hurt herself by thinking too hard. Corbyn'll lose even if 80% (PIDOOMA) of the population happens to agree with him because they all think that the inverse is true and would rather vote for the winner than who they think is the better choice*. Yes, I'm probably voting Labour, although I'm sure that was obvious by now. Anybody who's been paying attention knows I can just vote Monster Raving Loony and still get the same result.

*Two GEs for me so far, Lib Dem which is why I brought this up, they got 25% of the votes and maybe 10% of the seats at a push, Labour last time, looking like Labour again this time as said above, because I still don't trust the Lib Dems to not sell out again, and I actually like Corbyn for the most part.

If you are being serious, I hear you saying the electorate is disconnected with reality. Is democracy in your land therefore to be judged a failure? How might it be fixed or replaced?

We don't have democracy just democratic elections, and the only way to fix the problem is to get people to actually educate themselves about issues and what a politician really means when they say something. 'We'll save £350 million a week, money which could be used on the NHS' meant 'wahey, better healthcare' to most people. I read that, rolled my eyes, and said we're now way more likely to leave the EU and then see a load of angry fools wondering why the NHS is still underfunded and understaffed.

 

[mustafur]

Prime Ministers have resigned due to health reasons in the past but the monarch no longer has the power to dismiss the Prime Minister nor appoint one contrary to the will of Parliament, both having last happened in the 1830s, and I don't think there is a specific clause for removal of the PM except a motion of no confidence in the government.

Well it happened in 1975 in Australia, not sure if the same could apply to UK.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Australian_constitutional_crisis

 

[TheCracker]

If you are being serious, I hear you saying the electorate is disconnected with reality. Is democracy in your land therefore to be judged a failure? How might it be fixed or replaced?

Ban all the current British newspapers and news channels from spewing their lies, partial truths and biased political agendas that the British public lap up. Let them find their news from foreign sources. Obviously they'll all have their own leanings and agendas, but maybe, just maybe, they'll read something from another point of view to what they've been force fed on and dumbly lapped up and use it to form better, more rounded opinions on what's going on.