Britain - The Official Thread

[Fezzik]

Cost of living crisis, food prices so high, I’ve resorted to poaching deer from old Charlie’s backyard

He has so many, surely can spare one for a loyal subject (who is absolutely not a member of Republic).

 

[UKMikey]

He has so many, surely can spare one for a loyal subject (who is absolutely not a member of Republic).

Sounds like the setup for an episode of Robin Hood.

Venison is way too "deer" for this reluctant subject's dinner table.

 

[Fezzik]

First time in my life I’ve had to queue to vote, and I don’t live in a particularly crowded area. All very civilized of course, and oddly happy.

 

[MatskiMonk]

First time in my life I’ve had to queue to vote, and I don’t live in a particularly crowded area. All very civilized of course, and oddly happy.

Very long queue at our polling station too. I'm not going to read too much into that as the venue's changed and there's likely more wards using the same place. I did however recognise quite a few people in the queue from their customer facing roles in the town, and I'm going to paint them with a broad brush, and say this is probably a good thing for Labour... or Reform.

 

[Liquid]

That's big.

 

[Fezzik]

BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll:

Lab 410, Con 131, LD 61, Ref 13 (ffs), SNP 10 (lol)

170 majority, not super, 9 less than 97 TB

 

[TheCracker]

Reform is a bit worrisome and I was hoping LibDems would be a bit stronger. Only exit polls though.

 

[Fezzik]

Reform is a bit worrisome and I was hoping LibDems would be a bit stronger. Only exit poles though.

The poll is usually accurate to within 4 seats (except in 2015). EDIT - that is the average of how far out it has been, a couple of times it was dead on.

If true Reform are about the level of the LibDems in the last parliament and they were treated as an irrelevance. Same should happen to Farage, we know it won’t.

Also sorry Scotland, independence is dead for at least a decade.

 

[Touring Mars]

Also sorry 45% of Scotland, independence is dead for at least a decade.

FTFY

-

BBC have Steve Baker in the studio, and literally just said "Sorry to put you up on the screen here, but our polls indicate your chances of holding on to your seat are less than 1%..."

 

[MatskiMonk]

Dammit... that's a 131 more Conservative seats than I was hoping for, and JRM still roughly 50/50 to keep/loose his seat.

 

[Fezzik]

FTFY

-

BBC have Steve Baker in the studio, and literally just said "Sorry to put you up on the screen here, but our polls indicate your chances of holding on to your seat are less than 1%..."

Yes apologies. Sorry to the very loud SNP & Alba parts of Scotland.

 

[Liquid]

BBC have Steve Baker in the studio, and literally just said "Sorry to put you up on the screen here, but our polls indicate your chances of holding on to your seat are less than 1%..."

He handled it far better than most.

 

[Fezzik]

It’s odd that the (official) Tories are possibly headed for their lowest number of MPs since the 1830s and yet I’m still a bit disappointed by the result.

 

[MatskiMonk]

Well, we're still blue according to the BBC exit poll.

Bugger.

 

[Liquid]

He handled it far better than most.

And the BBC are not giving him an easy time on the way out.

 

[Fezzik]

He handled it far better than most.

He was so sure he’d lose at the start of the election period that he went on a planned holiday to Greece rather than campaign.

The poll says my area has an 85% chance of going orange at about 4am. That other 15% worries me.

 

[MatskiMonk]

From what Prof Curtice is saying, the Reform and SNP seat predictions from the Exit poll could vary by more than normal.

 

[Fezzik]

From what Prof Curtice is saying, the Reform and SNP seat predictions from the Exit poll could vary by more than normal.

Reform get less seats than predicted. Farage rants about stolen votes for the next 5 years.

Welsh Secretary David TC Davies has told BBC Wales he's lost his seat.

Cabinet member goes - DRINK!

 

[Famine]

🤡

 

[Liquid]

#AlternativeFacts

 

[MatskiMonk]

Reform get less seats than predicted. Farage rants about stolen votes for the next 5 years.


Cabinet member goes - DRINK!

To avoid getting paralytic too early, I'm going to have to wait for the declaration... I'm also using these...

5ml for LAB HOLD
15ml for a CON loss
25ml for a cabinet or prior Tory cabinet member loosing their seat

 

[Touring Mars]

First 2 seats declared as Labour holds... Reform P2 in both

 

[Liquid]

@MatskiMonk, I always enjoyed your posts. Was nice knowing you.

 

[MatskiMonk]

Well finally, that's a LAB gain from CON in Swindon South.

 

[Famine]

First 2 seats declared as Labour holds..

Well, Blyth & Ashington was a new seat - but Ian Lavery who held Wansbeck over much of the same area (some of which was in Conservative-held Blyth Valley) took the new seat.

I note that thus far the story has been not a Labour victory but a Conservative defeat... In each of the three seats so far (with a wiggle for the new one), Labour's gained 6-8% but the Conservatives have lost 20%...

Houghton & Sunderland South: LAB/Phillipson 40.7% to LAB/Phillipson 47.1% (CON -19%)
Blyth & Ashington: LAB/Lavery 42.3% (Wansbeck) to LAB/Lavery 49.6% (CON -18%)
Swindon South: CON/Buckland 52.3% to LAB/Alexander 48.4% (CON -25%)

And, worse, in each of those we've seen Reform pick up double-digits - 28/29% in the north-east seats, 14% in Swindon.

What the Conservatives have been taking from this is that they aren't far-right enough...

 

[Scaff]

Well finally, that's a LAB gain from CON in Swindon South.

One down in Swindon, one to go (mine)...

What the Conservatives have been taking from this is that they aren't far-right enough...

Unbelievably yep, "I guess we just weren't unpleasant enough..."

 

[Famine]

Same for Washington & Gateshead South: Labour on 48% (up 5%, sort of), Conservative lose 20% and Reform pick up 30%. Same for Newcastle C&W: Labour on 45% (down 13%), Conservatives lose 16%, Reform on 19%. Turnout seems to be down single-digits across the board too.

Just seems like the same people are voting Labour as did before, but the Conservatives are losing share to Reform (and smaller amounts to the Greens and Lib Dem).

Quite a concerning set of results up here, and the Labour reaction (including from Neil Kinnock right now) that Keir's turned it all around when he's getting similar numbers to Corbyn 2019 seems like turbo-complacency.


The reactions from Swindon South have been interesting, with the winner Heidi Alexander praising the outgoing Sir Robert Buckland for his service and he reciprocating with praise for her character and values. And digging into populists.

Seems like a decent MP being booted for his tie colour, which I suspect we'll see a lot (and nobody can be surprised at it; a barrel of 75% bad apples isn't worth digging through for the good ones)...

 

[Liquid]

I'd put some of that down to a lower turnout which, if I've followed it correctly, is based on "well they're going to win anyway".

 

[TheCracker]

I’m not entirely convinced that the shift from con to reform is because the tories are not far enough to the right, the general low turnout seen so far means that people are just fed up with the general state of play and don’t see Labour looking like they’ll do enough to make a difference to their lives. The strong showings for reform, so far, have been in parts of the country that feel left behind and want real change. Labour have had to target their policies fairly centre-right to gain some blue seats back, and haven’t proposed anything to rock the boat too much. Reforms results in Swindon South(?) were lower than the exit poll predicted.

 

[HenrySwanson]

The strong showings for reform, so far, have been in parts of the country that feel left behind and want real change.

Problem is, they want change back to a time that never existed or to a future that can never exist.