Britain - The Official Thread

[Liquid]

Problem is, they want change back to a time that never existed

It's called being a reactionary.

 

[HenrySwanson]

 

[Famine]

I’m not entirely convinced that the shift from con to reform is because the tories are not far enough to the right, the general low turnout seen so far means that people are just fed up with the general state of play and don’t see Labour looking like they’ll do enough to make a difference to their lives. The strong showings for reform, so far, have been in parts of the country that feel left behind and want real change.

Of the people I know who expressed any intent to vote Reform, one said that "Some of what Farage says makes sense", one was voting against our Conservative candidate for "knifing Boris in the back" (he signed the Boris out letter), and one is basically a slightly racist septuagenarian troll. I think only the latter did vote Reform.

Reforms results in Swindon South(?) were lower than the exit poll predicted.

Exit polls don't give vote shares, and can't be used to predict constituency results other than the likely winner.

The official exit poll basically gathers national voting trends and uses that to extrapolate a swing for each seat to then calculate which party will win each seat to come up with the seat totals.

The last pre-Polling Day polls were about 40% LAB, 20% CON, 15% NAZ REF, and 12% LIB. That's a swing of 22% away from CON to everyone else (15% to REF, 5% to LIB), except LAB, which also got 40% in 2019. For the purposes of what follows, we can assume the exit polls were similar (but they may well not be).

Swindon South last time out had CON on 52.3%, LAB on 39.2%, and LIB on 8.5%, with no other candidates and no UKIP (last stood in 2017, scored 2.5%). With that 22% swing away from CON applied you'd see LAB on 40%, CON on 30%, LIB on about 12%, REF on about 10-15% (tough to say given no candidate in 2019), and the exit poll would call that for LAB.

What we actually saw was LAB on 48% (8 more than expected), CON on 27% (3 less than expected), LIB on 4% (8 less), REF on 14% (about right, plus or minus 2%), and a surprising 6% from GRE.

 

[MatskiMonk]

Ah, that's more like it Darlington.

.. and Nuneaton, Stroud...

 

[Famine]

Ah, that's more like it Darlington.

LAB actually lost share and votes compared to 2019, but won due to a 16% tank from CON and 16% gain from REF.

Again, more a Tory loss than a Labour win - and again I'm hoping this isn't lost in all the champagne popping.

 

[MatskiMonk]

LAB actually lost share and votes compared to 2019, but won due to a 16% tank from CON and 16% gain from REF.

Aye.

Still +15ml though.

... infact, this has kicked up a gear pretty quickly. Eastleigh, Telford & Bridgend! +45ml...

 

[Liquid]

Again, more a Tory loss than a Labour win

I don't think too many people have been claiming that this election was an endorsement of Labour. At least to me, it's been quite clearly a rejection of the Tories.

Edit: Outside of the Labour party, I mean. Obviously Labour themselves will claim this as a ringing endorsement but I don't think the rest of the country have seen it that way. Perhaps that's wishful thinking on my part.

 

[MatskiMonk]

Ashfield coming in...

Well, it's a CON loss.

... and also a loss of National dignity.

 

[HenrySwanson]

Jesus....

Ashfield coming in...

Well, it's a CON loss.

... and also a loss of National dignity.

Well he wants his country back.

And, he's again an MP.

EDIT: 34% swing from CON to REF (30p Lee)

 

[MatskiMonk]

Of all the politicians I hate, and I hate a lot of them, 30p Lee is probably target number one on the list, or at least joint first with JRM.

edit: Kinnock: "Galloway is Repulsive... I couldn't find a good way to kick him out, he's repellent" .. so Galloway out, so that's something.

 

[Famine]

Farage potentially getting a seat while Galloway loses his is close to the definition of

 

[UKMikey]

I'd put some of that down to a lower turnout which, if I've followed it correctly, is based on "well they're going to win anyway".

I suspect the timing of the election along with our greater isolation from Europe has resulted in an increased nunber of voters being disenfranchised like I've been.

Thousands fear they will lose vote in UK election after postal ballot delays

Voters in the UK and abroad have either not received their ballots or have been left with too little time to return them

www.theguardian.com

 

[MatskiMonk]

God, Farage talking makes my skin crawl... where's an Onlyfans model with a killer milkshake when you need one.

 

[Liquid]

Starmer has lost about 10,000 votes in his own constituency.

 

[MatskiMonk]

Grant Shapps' neck on the block ...

edit: HA ******* SUCK THAT SHAPPS

edit 2: Irritable Duncan Syndrome keeps his seat.

 

[dylansan]

As an American somewhat unfamiliar with UK politics, do you all think Starmer shifting Labour towards the right had a big effect on these results? Is it just bad luck that he happened to be the leader now that Labour's in power? Is there any likelihood of pushback within the party on issues like trans rights? (Have I gotten any of this correct?)

 

[Liquid]

edit 2: Irritable Duncan Syndrome keeps his seat.

Because of Labour's split. And on that, Corbyn has kept his seat as an independent.

 

[MatskiMonk]

do you all think Starmer shifting Labour towards the right had a big effect on these results?

Personally I think it makes Labour more generally electable, but as has been said, a pro-Labour drive isn't what's giving us a landslide, that would be the movement of the right, further to the right. edit: or, I suppose, I a movement from Liberal to Authoritarian.

Is there any likelihood of pushback within the party on issues like trans rights?

With such a majority, fractures within the Labour party are bound to occur on many issues.

 

[MatskiMonk]

Clacton...

Farage is now an MP after a career trying.

Clacton-on-ᛋᛋea, twinned with Сулак

 

[Liquid]

The monkey paw worked very well.

 

[Tired Tyres]

Oh dear.

 

[MatskiMonk]

Badenoch keeps Saffron Walden

 

[Liquid]

The monkey paw worked very well.

 

[MatskiMonk]

Fabricant out!

That's a +25ml if ever I've seen one.

On the downside, Reform gets a third.

edit: Braverman keeps Fareham

Cruella is soooo going to push the party to the right and make a play for the biggest **** in the country award from Farage. Her definition of listening, is to run to the Reform voters.

edit: Tice takes Boston & Skeggy.

edit: Looks like PM4PM is keeping her seat -- HAAAAAA Penny falls to LAB!

 

[Liquid]

Alyn & Deeside, my old constituency, stays Labour as expected. It was very close in 2019, just 200 votes, but not this time - 9,000 majority. Reform beat the Tories to 2nd.

Edit:

Removed. False info.

 

[MatskiMonk]

Mercer gone too!

Denyer gets Bristol Central.

I've given up on measures.

 

[MatskiMonk]

Jeremy #unt up next...

And Rishi!

Will this be our BINdependance day!

Ahhhh... BOOO, both kept their seat.

Rishi doesn't look too happy about it...

#unt in by 891 votes against the Lib Dems.

 

[Liquid]

Quite sobering to see this verbal transfer of power and admission of defeat compared to what goes on in the US.

 

[MatskiMonk]

Quite sobering to see this verbal transfer of power and admission of defeat compared to what goes on in the US.

The poo-throwing over the change of mandate probably won't start until all the knuckle dragging Reform voters wake up and see they've got more votes than the Lib Dems (so far) and a tenth of the seats (so far).

 

[MatskiMonk]

JRM GONE! BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM! and with that, Labour are the first past the post.