COVID-19/Coronavirus Information and Support Thread (see OP for useful links)

  • Thread starter baldgye
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MUSC4EVER
Haven't been posting much about the supermarket where I work because things are more like what it normally is now.

We have got social distancing lines and stickers and people are mostly adhering to them especially at the tills, we now have to keep a record of every time we wash our hands whilst on shift, we are supposed to wash our hands at least every two hours, we do have gloves which I have worn a few times.

We were given a little bonus over the last two weeks and were given £20 to spend in store today, our manager is due back the week after next and my colleague who had suffered from the virus is now back in work.

I was in today but now have the rest of Easter off...hopefully!
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Is your store doing the one way aisle thing? Because I went to my local grocery store yesterday for my normal Thursday run and we were told going in that all of the aisles were one way only and had a "X" on one end and an arrow on the other and you followed the direction of the arrow down that aisle. But hardly no one was paying attention to it.

I still can't get over how certain sections are almost bare this far into this ordeal. You can still go to the grocery store even in a lock down you idiots!! You don't have to buy up everything in the store on a daily basis.
 
We haven't got the one way around the store thing no, I know most of our rivals have but we haven't, you can still walk around freely in our shop.
 
The question of how many people already have the infection is at the heart of a debate between epidemiologists at the Imperial College and Oxford university.

They do raise the question: is there a ceiling on the number of people who are prone to be infected with the disease? Do many of us have some kind of natural protection against infection? Would it ever spread among more than about one in six of us?

https://spectator.us/covid-antibody-test-german-town-shows-15-percent-infection-rate/
 
Dotini
The question of how many people already have the infection is at the heart of a debate between epidemiologists at the Imperial College and Oxford university.

They do raise the question: is there a ceiling on the number of people who are prone to be infected with the disease? Do many of us have some kind of natural protection against infection? Would it ever spread among more than about one in six of us?

https://spectator.us/covid-antibody-test-german-town-shows-15-percent-infection-rate/
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Imagine for a moment that it's not just the case that only 15 percent of the population are susceptible, but that we could predict which 15% are susceptible. We could quarantine those people, and of those people we could especially isolate only the most vulnerable groups within them.

People are treating wide sweeping lockdowns and stay-at-home orders for the entire population to be intelligent. It's only intelligent compared to ignoring the threat. The more information we get, about who is likely to need hospitalization, which treatments are effective, and which demographics actually contract the virus (whether it's because of age, or some other feature), the more we can focus those efforts into something that doesn't derail the economy going forward and enables a strong service support to be in place for the people that need it. The smarter we get about the disease, the smarter and more tailored our response can be.
 
Danoff
Imagine for a moment that it's not just the case that only 15 percent of the population are susceptible, but that we could predict which 15% are susceptible. We could quarantine those people, and of those people we could especially isolate only the most vulnerable groups within them.

People are treating wide sweeping lockdowns and stay-at-home orders for the entire population to be intelligent. It's only intelligent compared to ignoring the threat. The more information we get, about who is likely to need hospitalization, which treatments are effective, and which demographics actually contract the virus (whether it's because of age, or some other feature), the more we can focus those efforts into something that doesn't derail the economy going forward and enables a strong service support to be in place for the people that need it. The smarter we get about the disease, the smarter and more tailored our response can be.
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Yeah, I thought you would like that.

I'd like to know more about what makes some people immune. I expect research in progress will reveal this.
 
MUSC4EVER
It wasn't much, it was two days pay based off what your contracted hours are, but it was greatly appreciated and people have been losing they jobs because of the virus and the lockdowns so myself and my colleagues are very lucky that we are not in that situation.
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The consideration is what impresses me. My daughter works at a supermarket and they're having to break down their stations multiple times during the day to disinfect, which you can imagine is taxing. She got a small pay bump plus a small monthly bonus, and her boss occasionally supplies lunch (or dinner, depending on the shift) for the staff.
 
Dotini
The question of how many people already have the infection is at the heart of a debate between epidemiologists at the Imperial College and Oxford university.

They do raise the question: is there a ceiling on the number of people who are prone to be infected with the disease? Do many of us have some kind of natural protection against infection? Would it ever spread among more than about one in six of us?

https://spectator.us/covid-antibody-test-german-town-shows-15-percent-infection-rate/
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That study from Germany is heavily reliant on antibody tests that are of uncertain validity, so the results need to be taken with a heavily salted pretzel.

Also, the 15% infection rate does not imply an 85% immunity rate (or indeed any immunity at all), though there remains the question of how prevalent innate immunity might be.
 
Danoff
According to data from New York, if you could effectively quarantine everyone over 70 years old, you'd cut the death count to less than half. If you could do it for everyone over 50, you'd cut the death count by 93%.
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Interesting. I think my town missed the memo & did the opposite. We have 24 cases right now, 6 in the 51-60 age, 1 above 80, the rest under 50. 3 are minors, 2 of which are under 10 just reported in the last day. :indiff:
 
McLaren
Interesting. I think my town missed the memo & did the opposite. We have 24 cases right now, 6 in the 51-60 age, 1 above 80, the rest under 50. 3 are minors, 2 of which are under 10 just reported in the last day. :indiff:
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Well that's a strange profile for cases regardless, but the figures I was quoting were for deaths.
 
Touring Mars
...there remains the question of how prevalent innate immunity might be.
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Who has innate immunity?

Looking at the research tools which track the coronavirus outbreak, the first impression is that Russia, sub-Saharan Africa and South America don't seem to be getting their share of the infection. I'm sure numerous factors could be invoked to explain that first impression, but just how is innate immunity determined?
 
Danoff
People are treating wide sweeping lockdowns and stay-at-home orders for the entire population to be intelligent. It's only intelligent compared to ignoring the threat. The more information we get, about who is likely to need hospitalization, which treatments are effective, and which demographics actually contract the virus (whether it's because of age, or some other feature), the more we can focus those efforts into something that doesn't derail the economy going forward and enables a strong service support to be in place for the people that need it. The smarter we get about the disease, the smarter and more tailored our response can be.
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I'm helping on a project to figure this out right now, at least for our hospital. We're not interested in the economic impact, but we are very interested in trying to figure out who is most likely to be hospitalized and who will need the most intensive care. I know there are a couple of health systems doing something similar to this as well since we've all talked about it on the message board for the EMR we use. I think between the lot of us, we'll be able to come up with something that's incredibly helpful.

We're also doing a pretty extensive study regarding hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin as well. I'm pretty interested to follow the results we come up with too since our medical research is pretty top-notch. I'll need to hound my boss to see if I can be put on that project too.
 
MUSC4EVER
Haven't been posting much about the supermarket where I work because things are more like what it normally is now.
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Can I ask, are you having problems getting flour in your store? The other half is taking up baking, but I just can't get any flour from anywhere - particularly self-raising and strong (bread) flour. Are you just not getting any in, or am I getting there too late and you sell out immediately?
 
DG_Silva
Can I ask, are you having problems getting flour in your store? The other half is taking up baking, but I just can't get any flour from anywhere - particularly self-raising and strong (bread) flour. Are you just not getting any in, or am I getting there too late and you sell out immediately?
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We did have problems getting it in when everyone was panic-buying a few weeks ago but not so much right now and we haven't been selling out of it immediately.

It has been pretty popular though because whilst mostly everyone is bored at home during the lockdown they have taken up things like baking.
 
DG_Silva
Can I ask, are you having problems getting flour in your store? The other half is taking up baking, but I just can't get any flour from anywhere - particularly self-raising and strong (bread) flour. Are you just not getting any in, or am I getting there too late and you sell out immediately?
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If it helps at all, I'm pretty sure self-rising is just AP with either baking powder or baking soda added as a leavener. Obviously you'd still need to get the AP flour and the leavener, but that may be a little easier than getting the pre-mixed.
 
Gotta say, Walmart only using one entrance and having everything barricaded off was a good deterrent for me. Decided it wasn't worth it and drove away. Think I'll stick to my local grocery store that isn't doing that...
 
Dotini
Who has innate immunity?

Looking at the research tools which track the coronavirus outbreak, the first impression is that Russia, sub-Saharan Africa and South America don't seem to be getting their share of the infection. I'm sure numerous factors could be invoked to explain that first impression, but just how is innate immunity determined?
Click to expand...

It is very difficult (if not impossible) to determine* what individuals may have innate immunity to a specific strain of a specific virus - perhaps the best we can probably hope for would be to determine roughly what percentage of the population may have immunity (either innate or gained), the latter of which can at least be determined through the use of a reliable antibody test which should be available soon. Innate immunity, on the other hand, could only really be estimated after the pandemic has passed.

This ties in with what @Danoff and others are suggesting - that if more can be done to identify who is at low risk (i.e. virtually no risk of requiring intensive care treatment should they become infected with the virus), then future lockdown periods could be much less severe and thus less economically damaging.

The trouble with that idea is that it may not be possible to determine that risk on an individual basis i.e. it may be that we can only know the percentage of low/lower risk individuals and cannot specifically say that any one person will not suffer severe illness. There is also the point that the virus can apparently still be spread by people who do not become ill or even show any symptoms, meaning that exempting these people from lockdown restrictions would allow transmission chains to persist, and thus put vulnerable people at more risk for longer - and by vulnerable people I mean anyone who ultimately develops severe COVID-19. Hence, without knowing (or even being able to ever know) who those individuals are, I can't see it being safe to exempt large sections of the community from lockdown until the transmission rate of the virus has dropped to almost zero.

The upshot of this is that it is perhaps unlikely that a general lockdown can be avoided through 'intelligence gathering' - and until a vaccine or successful and widely available drug treatment exists, lockdown measures of various sorts are the best weapon against runaway infection rates and overwhelmed healthcare facilities/staff.

*at least in a timely manner that would make a difference right now
 
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I'm all for some sort of immune testing and card system. Every day more and more people become immune but remain in lockdown as their mental health, buisnesses and infratructure deteriorate. If we can get those people back to a semblence of their lives and work then the longer term effects on mental health and getting the country/ies restarted again will be diminished.

My only concern would be that it might encourage people to try and deliberatly get the bug, in the belief that they are young and therefore will be fine, just to get an immunty card.

Another month of this and my company goes under, and potentially thousands of other companies too taking with them hundreds of thousands of jobs, meanwhile potentially millions of people who are immune remain locked inside worried about their futures. That might seem small in the face of the thousands who are dying each day but in the long term the damage to economy and and infrastructure could take many more lives, and steps now, even to only get an extra 10/20% of people going again could take the edge off that.


Dotini
Who has innate immunity?

Looking at the research tools which track the coronavirus outbreak, the first impression is that Russia, sub-Saharan Africa and South America don't seem to be getting their share of the infection. I'm sure numerous factors could be invoked to explain that first impression, but just how is innate immunity determined?
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I would be skeptical of the claims coming from many of those areas. Russia may be helped by a smaller population for size of the country and as such skipping the virus breeding hellscapes of London and New York but we have seen doctors from the area talking about massive increases in deaths from 'pneumonia' etc.
 
I went outside to get a delivery yesterday evening and my area was buzzing with people. Not many cars, but more people walking, jogging and cycling than I’ve ever seen since moving here little over a year ago.

Do we really think the movement restrictions will be lifted before the end of May?
 
baldgye
I went outside to get a delivery yesterday evening and my area was buzzing with people. Not many cars, but more people walking, jogging and cycling than I’ve ever seen since moving here little over a year ago.

Do we really think the movement restrictions will be lifted before the end of May?
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I don't think there is any chance the lockdown will be (or should be) relaxed before the end of May... but the end of May is maybe a good estimate of when we might expect to see transmission rates drop to a low enough level to start thinking about relaxing some restrictions. That said, the more people begin to ignore restrictions, the further away that point will become.

I think the Government could/should say something like 'We either put up with 6 more weeks of tough lockdown now, or we'll need to start the whole thing all over again when we could have been lifting restrictions'... it will all depend on what transmission rates look like next month.

If this lockdown ultimately fails, then we can not only expect to see a second, possibly even higher peak and a fresh 3-month period of lockdown. I hope that the general public do not need to experience a failed lockdown before they take it more seriously the next time, but it is possible.

No matter what happens, however, social distancing might well be with us for a very long time.
 
Touring Mars
I don't think there is any chance the lockdown will be (or should be) relaxed before the end of May... but the end of May is maybe a good estimate of when we might expect to see transmission rates drop to a low enough level to start thinking about relaxing some restrictions. That said, the more people begin to ignore restrictions, the further away that point will become.

I think the Government could/should say something like 'We either put up with 6 more weeks of tough lockdown now, or we'll need to start the whole thing all over again when we could have been lifting restrictions'... it will all depend on what transmission rates look like next month.

If this lockdown ultimately fails, then we can not only expect to see a second, possibly even higher peak and a fresh 3-month period of lockdown. I hope that the general public do not need to experience a failed lockdown before they take it more seriously the next time, but it is possible.

No matter what happens, however, social distancing might well be with us for a very long time.
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Do what my president do and extend the quarantine each 2 weeks...
 
TexRex
If it helps at all, I'm pretty sure self-rising is just AP with either baking powder or baking soda added as a leavener. Obviously you'd still need to get the AP flour and the leavener, but that may be a little easier than getting the pre-mixed.
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Thanks. The other half is a qualified pastry chef (hasn't baked anything in 15 years, of course) and has asked specifically for self-raising flour - I'm guessing there is something slightly different because we do already have plenty of plain flour and baking powder - but I've tried four differnent stores when I've been passing (small local stores right up to supermarkets), all without success.
 
baldgye
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Not sure this is a fair comment... it's not like the 10 richest people in the UK are appealing for people to donate to the NHS... and it's not like none of them are doing anything to help, not to mention what charities they support privately.
 
Touring Mars
Not sure this is a fair comment... it's not like the 10 richest people in the UK are appealing for people to donate to the NHS... and it's not like none of them are doing anything to help, not to mention what charities they support privately.
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Perhaps, but the press did sorta go after footballers, expecting them to cut salaries
 
There seems to be a reliable antibody test now coming into use which requires only one drop of blood, can be administered and analyzed within 20 minutes, and costs less than $20. Antibodies may vary in amount, and may go away after a few months.

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/02/2004168117


South Korea reports 91 recovered patients test positive for virus again. They appear to be relapsing, not being reinfected. This virus may be like HIV - it can be suppressed, but never goes away.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...X?utm_source=reddit.com&utm_source=reddit.com


People with blood type A may be more vulnerable to infection by the new coronavirus, while those with type O seem more resistant, according to a preliminary study of patients in China who contracted the disease known as Covid-19.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...ay-be-more-vulnerable-coronavirus-china-study

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18818423/

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.20031096v2
 
baldgye
Perhaps, but the press did sorta go after footballers, expecting them to cut salaries
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The main reason for that was that clubs were furloughing non-playing staff (i.e. getting the government to pay them) while continuing to pay some players (who are currently not working at all) astronomical sums out of their own pocket.
 
Touring Mars
The main reason for that was that clubs were furloughing non-playing staff (i.e. getting the government to pay them) while continuing to pay some players (who are currently not working at all) astronomical sums out of their own pocket.
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It’s not like none of them are doing anything to help, not to mention what charities they support privately.
If it’s fair to go after footballers, don’t see why it isn’t fair to expect anyone who earns ‘astronomical’ amounts of money to help support the NHS and other key workers. Without which they wouldn’t have had the environment in which to become so wealthy.

I guess I would include bankers in that too, probably many CEO’s...
 
Touring Mars
The main reason for that was that clubs were furloughing non-playing staff (i.e. getting the government to pay them) while continuing to pay some players (who are currently not working at all) astronomical sums out of their own pocket.
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That and footballers being the usual easy targets. When Wayne Rooney is the man talking sense, you know there's issues :lol:
baldgye
If it’s fair to go after footballers, don’t see why it isn’t fair to expect anyone who earns ‘astronomical’ amounts of money to help support the NHS and other key workers. Without which they wouldn’t have had the environment in which to become so wealthy.
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A sudden attack of consistency.
 

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