COVID-19/Coronavirus Information and Support Thread (see OP for useful links)

[twitcher]

High quality Chinese made PPE for medical staff...

 

[baldgye]

 

[Rage Racer]

High quality Chinese made PPE for medical staff...

Well, they should blame their buyers who decided to save some money and ordered crap instead of quality equipment.

 

[twitcher]

Well, they should blame their buyers who decided to save some money and ordered crap instead of quality equipment.

Not sure how you would know what the buyers ordered, but ok.

Furthermore, regardless of what the buyers ordered - high quality or otherwise - the product that is displayed in that video is not acceptable, no matter how “cheap” it may intended to be. The gowns in that video are not a functional product, they are worth zero dollars.

 

[Northstar]

The crappy tissue paper you buy for gift bags looks more durable than that.

Well, they should blame their buyers who decided to save some money and ordered crap instead of quality equipment.

I'm not sure if you've noticed, but there is a bit of a PPE shortage at the moment, it's not like places really have a huge selection of supplies to choose from.

 

[Famine]

Furthermore, regardless of what the buyers ordered - high quality or otherwise - the product that is displayed in that video is not acceptable, no matter how “cheap” it may intended to be. The gowns in that video are not a functional product, they are worth zero dollars.

Unless it's for a fancy dress store.

 

[PzR Slim]

A series of unfortunate events.

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/04/11/...ts-woeful-response-to-the-coronavirus-crisis/

 

[Famine]

A series of unfortunate events.

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/04/11/...ts-woeful-response-to-the-coronavirus-crisis/

That's an interesting timeline. It shows that China didn't initiate any quarantine procedures at ground zero for the disease for just over four weeks after identifying it (Nov 22 [absent from the timeline] to Jan 23 (and in fact has had no nationwide measures), while the UK's first nationwide quarantines three weeks from the first person-to-person transmission (Feb 29 - Mar 20) to shift from Containment to Delay.


I also loved the references to Lancet:

24 January 2020: A group of Chinese doctors and scientists publish an article in the Lancet medical journal titled ‘Clinical Features of Patients Infected With 2019 Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China’ (Lancet). According to Devi Sridhar, chair of global public health at the University of Edinburgh, the study showed “that a third of patients require admission to intensive care, and 29% get so bad that they need ventilation.” (Guardian)

10 March 2020: “The government was accused of playing roulette with the public by the editor-in-chief of the Lancet medical journal. Dr Richard Horton called for the ‘urgent implementation of social distancing and closure policies’.” (Guardian)

Also Richard Horton, on the same day that first article was published:



Horton also, very notably, published the Wakefield paper.

 

[Liquid]

Another belter.

Why don't antibacterials work against viruses?

 

[strela]

This is getting hilarious. I am so sad I want to cry.

 

[mustafur]

Well, they should blame their buyers who decided to save some money and ordered crap instead of quality equipment.

Can you not be an apologist for nonsense atleast once?

 

[TexRex]

Another belter.

Why don't antibacterials work against viruses?

*washes hands thoroughly*

...

*facepalms*

 

[Famine]

Another belter.

Why don't antibacterials work against viruses?

Many otherwise smort people think antibiotics help with viruses. There's a whole lot of people sneering at that right now that a couple of days ago thought the same thing, but now miraculously never did.

Which is why that's not my favourite bit. My favourite bit is "People go to the hospital, they have a heart operation, that's no problem, but they end up dying from... problems."

Ahhh, the famous problems you get from no problem.

 

[Submerged]

I have to say that there is a lot of propaganda happening between China vs US. Already.

I've had quite a few Chinese friends concerned for me in UK highlighting that the US potentially cause the Covid-19 in the first place.

A few others that were sending me information that the Americans are wrong and the reasons why. (namely Fox News just running information without checking stuff).

It just feels like eventually at the end of it, a world war will come out of it and there isn't a way to make people just chill the eff out about it.

 

[01GTP]

A summary of my opinion after reading and watching many hours (days worth) of information on the pandemic. For what it's worth..I am only a person on a forum, be that as it may.

Please keep in mind that most health and economy experts are expressing they're concern for people to keep on going with social distancing as a must to keep future waves from happening before the officials decide to open their economies. That will most likely be regional just as it was with lockdown. Some people seem to think this is to end soon, it will not. Social distancing (SD (inc isolation and lockdown)) will likely go through the summer (as even economic experts are predicting) and take 3 -5 years to recover. They also agree that the cure is not worse than the problem. Of course we can't really predict how this is actually end, or when. I'm sure we all agree it's a very hard time for all of us and we want a vaccine ASAP.

So.................SD is saving the USA $3 - 5 trillion

If the financial collapse of 2008 is anything to go by, there is a very good likelihood that the economhttps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561934ic crash due to our lockdown will be more deadly. I know I looked this up a few weeks back, but trying to sift through and find it is a bit of hassle. Something like 250,000 people died just due to not having the ability to treat their cancer. This isn't even factoring in other diseases, especially lifestyle diseases, that will ultimately harm a ton of people because they're unable to get the care they need. Yes, you can still get charity care, but there's only so much charity to go around.

I found it (maybe it) for you. Another. More. Do you remember that number is for 35 different states of the OECD, not the USA alone? Actually all 3 links have different numbers of some sort. It shows a period of 2008 - 2010. The USA saw 18,000 of those, the UK none. Each person worth $10 million.

Data from the WHO and CDC on 54 countries estimated excess suicides during 2009 was 4884 ( I can't find other data) and they're findings show that economic crises pose considerable suicide risks, though previous studies suggest that these risks are not inevitable. Research has shown that active labor market programs can help to offset the impact of economic recession on suicide as successful re-employment has been found to substantially reduce, and in some cases eliminate, mental health risks of job loss. There will be job losses but it's hard to believe that the 20 million people unemployed soon will last much past the lift on restrictions. Our Feds are throwing a ton of money into this problem which will have a positive effect on the economy. I went through the 3.4 trillion benefit of social distancing in past posts.

This report has a benefit of more than $5 trillion and includes (besides other data) a reduction of infection by 38% using SD. It also includes overwhelming the HCS which currently we are not. It includes future costs, mortality, loss GDP and the shape of recovery which is estimated to be 5 years and so on.

To me SD is the only way to go.

Info on opening the economy.
https://www.politico.com/news/magaz...economy-reopen-deaths-balance-analysis-159248

My opinion is test everybody multiple times during this crisis but as of now we can barely test the infected. Yeah, so unfortunate.

Before we start sending kids to school there has to be testing of them, be it virus testing and/or antibodies. Yes that's 81 million tests but (IMO schools out until September) by the next school year tests should be available, especially when you hear Dr. Fauci yesterday. Trump, doesn't matter what he has to say.

https://time.com/5819068/fauci-coronavirus-antibody-test-us/

"They're saying you should add zinc. Very good things, zinc. Great things. I once knew a guy made of zinc. Ryan, I think his name was. Don Jr. told me to hire him as my inferior secretary. Ryan did so many good things. Not inferior at all. Ryan had to leave. I don't think I ever met the man. He said things that were, uh, that were not very nice. Any questions? Yes, you. OAN. O-A-N. Very good, OAN. What a beautiful question."

👍👍

That's not realistic to do. While some health systems have developed their own tests that significantly reduces the turn around time on the virus, the testing supplies are coming up short. When the whole world needs nasal swabs and whatever is in the liquid they use for testing (I honestly don't know) there's way more demand than supply. It doesn't help that FEMA keeps buying things up and keeping them out of the hands of the hospitals.

We agree that testing currently is a mess, whatever the reason doesn't matter.

 

[01GTP]

According to data from New York, if you could effectively quarantine everyone over 70 years old, you'd cut the death count to less than half. If you could do it for everyone over 50, you'd cut the death count by 93%.

...and that's basically all I stated. If we could isolate them effectively, then we would achieve this great result. It's a big if.

So you should have stated the facts as they were presented in your link, or skipped the link and told us what you were insinuating and that it was not according to the article but just using the data. Hence the backlash form me. It should of read: According to New York data 93% of deaths are over 50 years of age. If you could effectively quarantine them (before they died) you could have saved their lives. If those areas in the country (or world) behind the spread can do that with SD it'd be a win-win no doubt. The USA is not mandating to quarantine them but they have been warned to SD (including isolation) if they aren't essential workers (like my wife) or as some are doing, using the StayhomeStaysafe mentality.

So you mean it has more death than Norway and Denmark? Because....
Sweden is tracking about like the US in terms of death per capita. Similar to Switzerland, less than Netherlands and France. Obviously less than Italy, Begium, Spain, the UK...
What was your point again?

My point is echoed here................
From article...................................

On Saturday, Sweden Prime Minister Stefan Löfven said the coronavirus may have spread slower in Sweden than in many other countries, but that did not mean it could avoid its worst effects. "We have chosen a strategy of trying to flatten the curve and not get too dramatic a process because then the healthcare system probably will not cope," he told Sweden's Dagens Nyheter newspaper, according to The Guardian. "But it also means that we will have more seriously ill people who need intensive care. We will have significantly more deaths. We will count the dead in thousands."

At least he realizes thousands may (he says will) die, don't you? We'll have to see if they're deaths/capita increases compared to the USA for your comparison. I believe they're rate is going to climb a lot according the Prime Minister's remarks. We'll add the $10 million/person then, but now it's at $8.87 billion.
Even though you state that Sweden is not in an economic depression they are still forking out $30 billion in economic measures for this pandemic. So they have lost/spent $38.87 billion, chump change compared to the USA. You seem to miss the point that dead people cost money too.

Denmark initially used a "containment strategy" based on "fast diagnosis, contact tracing and quarantine of those evaluated to be at risk." But as the virus spread, Denmark moved to a "mitigation strategy," banning large gatherings and seeking to protect the most vulnerable people and was the second country in Europe to announce a lockdown, on March 11. It did so before it reported any deaths from the virus. They are planning on opening school next week. Of course Denmark's efforts to slowly reopen come as the World Health Organization cautions against relaxing restrictions. It has pointed to some countries close to China that managed to keep the virus at bay for months only to see surges in cases as they relaxed their suppression measures.

Good example to your schooling dilemma is in Sweden they're still going to schools (primary, others online), even some areas are making it illegal for kids to stay home if they are not sick.
From article.............

“The healthy children who do not come to school are breaking the law, and in the case of a long period of invalid absence, you will be called to a meeting with the principal, after which social services may be contacted.”While Swedes are encouraged to use their individual sense of moral responsibility, apparently there are limits to this, especially if your moral responsibility prompts you to socially distance with your kids at home. Perhaps most troubling is the fact that parents seem to have little authority over the final decision as to whether or not their children can legally socially-distance at home.

Watch the video below on kids spreading the virus from Dr. Fauci.



Switzerland's numbers are high likely due to bordering Italy.
France started reporting cases in January but put restrictions in place too late, March 16th.
Norway's numbers are low as a result of early and high amounts of testing.

I mean this:
GDP and life expectancy have a huge correlation.

Well this should set your mind at ease on that.
Info on opening the economy.
https://www.politico.com/news/magaz...economy-reopen-deaths-balance-analysis-159248

Only if ours is. Apparently. But perhaps they're a little better off because they're not facing an economic depression?

Yet to be seen, but I would bet they will. Seeing they're GDP is only 556.1 billion in 2018 and they have already spent $38 billion doesn't look good already. Add a couple more thousand deaths and yeah.......................

We're in a discussion forum. This is where we discuss whether we think the experts are right. And we know there is a lot of guesswork going on with C19.

I think the experts are correct, mostly because I don't do pandemics or financial crises. I don't expect others to question my expertise in my trade so I'll give them the respect they deserve. Not to mention we are talking life or death situations. This s..t is real.

I respect your wanting to question things we don't know about otherwise I wouldn't be spending time on this discussion. I just don't understand the school part of this discussion.

You still have to catch it. Even if you're spreading it asymptomatically, you need to be able to test positive (at least if the test is legit) to be spreading it. In other words, you have to catch it to spread it. Not that you have to have symptoms. All evidence points to the fact that kids are fairly resistant at catching it, therefore an elementary school is not a good place for this disease to be spreading.

I'll agree that the chances of spreading it is more if you show symptoms, that's obvious.
It's not the school itself or the fact it's a gathering area that I'm talking about, it's sending any population into public to aid in spreading the virus. You do realize that just the number of students in the USA is 81.5 million in primary and secondary schools. Yes, children numbers are very low on testing positive and even lower on deaths. Comparing Connecticut's test data on confirmed cases ( ages 0 -19) out of those 81.5 million children over 10,000 will be infected. Nationwide 5 days ago 0 - 17 age cases were 593. Currently we (Ct) have only 68 cases and New York's 0 - 17 cases total 1928 people and we border New York on our total western border. New York alone has more than tripled the numbers of that age group, in a week. Don't forget 55 million students are under stay home orders (quarantine) including New York.
.
According to CDC children do contract the virus, as has been stated here many times.......................
A graph I don't understand, maybe you do..??

FIGURE 1. COVID-19 cases in children* aged <18 years, by date reported to CDC (N = 2,549)† — United States, February 24–April 2, 2020

If I've missed something, let me know. I don't know everything about disease pathology.

Some reading for you..........................
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6914e1.htm
Not only asymptomatic but presymptomatic

From article.............

Presymptomatic transmission was defined as the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from an infected person (source patient) to a secondary patient before the source patient developed symptoms, as ascertained by exposure and symptom onset dates, with no evidence that the secondary patient had been exposed to anyone else with COVID-19. Seven COVID-19 epidemiologic clusters in which presymptomatic transmission likely occurred were identified, and 10 such cases within these clusters accounted for 6.4% of the 157 locally acquired cases. In the four clusters for which the date of exposure could be determined, presymptomatic transmission occurred 1–3 days before symptom onset in the presymptomatic source patient

Not at a rate consistent with their population footprint. They get it far less often than other age groups (based on South Korean data, which as far as I know is the best data taken to date).

I couldn't find anything about that besides ecological and/or human footprints, sorry. Please inform me.
Do they get/spread the virus is the only question here. Answer yes. Spreading is spreading at any rate.

Apparently you don't need to. Kids don't catch it very easily (based on SK data). This disease is heavily weighted toward older hosts.

Change your mind yet?


That is not a chart about schools at all, that's the total unemployment numbers, though it's now a lot more. If that many school associated people were out of work I could better understand your issue with schooling. Our school teachers are still employed during lockdown and from what I hear and posted in earlier posts that online schooling is being used as well as home learning. Lunch programs for those that need it are still in effect as well. To go a bit further a lot of our day care centers are for health care workers children as well as other essential workers.

We all need to honestly assess how much risk we can take with our particular biological situation. That's tougher to do with C19 than usual, but it is the task we are faced with.

I'm up for the task. 👍

That's why you need to take personal responsibility for your family's well-being and not leave it up to others. They're not all in your situation. In fact, none of them are. You're the only one dealing with your particular biological exposure to this disease.

This is not about me or my problems with this pandemic. This is about others and protecting them. Haven't you heard the nation yet.

I still find it odd how many people are oblivious to the fact that if there is a major economic collapse, people will die. Large amounts of them at that. This will happen if we continue to have everything locked down for months. It’s not just a matter of people killing themselves or domestic abuse even though there will certainly be large amounts of that, it is also a fact that many people will become homeless. Many people will starve to death. Many people will get killed because of looting and home invasions. This is why we can’t forget about the economy when having a country locked down. Yes, social distancing is saving lives, but we can’t let it continue to the point where the damage caused by it is worse than the virus itself. There will certainly be a point where the economy needs to open back up whether the virus is gone or not.

Yes the economy will open before the virus is gone. Looting and home invasions, you watch too much TV. What's next a guy with a gun shooting people in Las Vegas? Been there done that. The rest you should understand better if you read through the information.

It happens in more subtle ways too. Someone loses a job and some new piece of medical technology fails to get invented. A drug trial gets postponed, a company that was producing life-saving technology goes under, and prices rise. It's a thousand paper cuts.

If either of you are really that worried I hope you spent the agonizing time to read through this information. If you do I think it would ease your worries.

And back to our regularly scheduled programming......racing.

Oh and Happy Easter!

 

[baldgye]

I guess this is kinda supporting my view that an earlier lockdown should have happened, it’s a whole thread on Twitter on the difference/similarities between England and Ireland's response:



It is a thread so you might have to click into it to get the details. I’m not saying this is conclusive, but it makes for interesting reading

 

[Chrunch Houston]

Tonight I cry.

We are not getting out of this thing anytime soon.

The only thing that is preventing us (the US) from turning out like Italy is social diatancing.

This whole thing in the US started with a nursing home in seattle, and a lawyer in NY.

Now we have locked down the entire country. But what would happen if we unlocked it?

I cry some more.

 

[Touring Mars]

But what would happen if we unlocked it?

It entirely depends on when and how we are 'unlocked'.

If we scrapped lockdowns now, our countries would face an unprecedented disaster.

The fact is, though, that the current lockdowns in the US and the UK are relatively lax - they could, in theory at least, be much tougher. In the US and the UK, we are much more respectful of individual rights. However, in a pandemic scenario, this also makes us more vulnerable... and hence we are expected as individuals to choose to do the right thing - as opposed to the Chinese approach, where you are not given a choice in the matter.

The sad truth is, however, that we are likely to face multiple waves of this - even when restrictions are relaxed, our countries will face a stern challenge in preventing another wave. Hopefully, we will be much better prepared and capable of containing future waves, but that will only work if everyone plays their part and does what is necessary to prevent transmission of the virus.

 

[Liquid]

I can't be certain of the accuracy of the figures but Slovakia's extreme lockdown measures have resulted in a far lower death toll than pretty much everywhere else in Europe. Only Montenegro and Latvia are also still in single digits.

There are 715 cases in Slovakia with 2,000 tests done on the particular Thursday before the most recent increase in case numbers. I'm not certain how many tests have been done overall but I believe it to be of a roughly significant amount to back up the data. With a population of 5.5 million that averages to roughly 1 case of covid every 7,700 people.

23 people have recovered and 2 people have died, one of whom dropped dead of a preëxisting heart condition as soon as he left the hospital.

 

[McLaren]

It entirely depends on when and how we are 'unlocked'.

If we scrapped lockdowns now, our countries would face an unprecedented disaster.

The fact is, though, that the current lockdowns in the US and the UK are relatively lax - they could, in theory at least, be much tougher. In the US and the UK, we are much more respectful of individual rights. However, in a pandemic scenario, this also makes us more vulnerable... and hence we are expected as individuals to choose to do the right thing - as opposed to the Chinese approach, where you are not given a choice in the matter.

The sad truth is, however, that we are likely to face multiple waves of this - even when restrictions are relaxed, our countries will face a stern challenge in preventing another wave. Hopefully, we will be much better prepared and capable of containing future waves, but that will only work if everyone plays their part and does what is necessary to prevent transmission of the virus.

Wonder how things are going to play out here in Texas. Gov. Abbott is already talking about reopening businesses whilst the US is still looking at April 30 potential release.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/greg-abbott-texas-business-coronavirus-guidelines

 

[Touring Mars]

@McLaren I should have added the important caveat that provided social distancing measures are maintained, and other measures are rigorously adhered to (like PPE use, testing, quarantining etc.), then it could be possible to reopen businesses sooner rather than later and avoid the worst public health outcomes. However, until transmission rates have dropped significantly, it is taking quite a risk to reopen too soon, esp. if these measures are not universally adopted.

It's a tough call, but it would make more sense to at least wait until transmission rates were back to pre-peak levels (i.e. fewer than 1% new cases per day) before lifting restrictions. This could well be the case within a few weeks in the US, though.

 

[Aloha62_2]

Slovakia's extreme lockdown measures have resulted in a far lower death toll than pretty much everywhere else in Europe. Only Montenegro and Latvia are also still in single digits.

The downside to this is that the more extreme the lockdown the slower the developement of herd immunity, which in turn causes the extreme lockdown to be needed for far longer. At some point the collapse of jobs, industry and mental health effects will cause more deaths than Covid would have.

The cure would do more harm than the disease, especially if you are waiting for a vaccine that could be a year or two off.


If we keep with social distancing, use the influx of equipment going to hospitals and be sensible then a steady reopening should be possible much sooner, and it is essentially neeeded in order for herd immunity to ever overcome the problem. The lack of immunity testing is the real issue, that should be a priority so that those who are already immune can get back to work and mitigate the long term damage to the countries economy, which again could in the long term claim more lives than Covid.

 

[Touring Mars]

I was also going to saying that low infection numbers right now are not necessarily a good sign...

... but, it is buying time and allowing these countries to better prepare for what might be an inevitable wave of infections.

The UK is very close to a) not having done enough quickly enough and b) being unprepared for the peak.

It is a scandal that our healthcare and key workers are struggling to source PPE. At the very least, delaying the onset of a first peak gives other countries more time to prepare.

 

[McLaren]

@McLaren I should have added the important caveat that provided social distancing measures are maintained, and other measures are rigorously adhered to (like PPE use, testing, quarantining etc.), then it could be possible to reopen businesses sooner rather than later and avoid the worst public health outcomes. However, until transmission rates have dropped significantly, it is taking quite a risk to reopen too soon, esp. if these measures are not universally adopted.

It's a tough call, but it would make more sense to at least wait until transmission rates were back to pre-peak levels (i.e. fewer than 1% new cases per day) before lifting restrictions. This could well be the case within a few weeks in the US, though.

So that means it's more concerning that Texas is the worst state when it comes to testing, yet ready to reopen?

Nearly 116,000 people have been tested for COVID-19 in Texas, but when it comes to the number of tests per capita, the Lone Star State ranks last.

Statewide, Texas is administering about 3,660 tests per 1 million residents, according to a 13 Investigates analysis of data from the COVID Tracking Project.

Last week, Texas was testing about 1,748 people per 1 million in population. But, despite an increase in testing every week, Texas is still trailing behind other states.

https://abc13.com/coronavirus-test-covid-19-testing-rates-in-texas-fewest-patients/6093037/

 

[Touring Mars]

So that means it's more concerning that Texas is the worst state when it comes to testing, yet ready to reopen?

https://abc13.com/coronavirus-test-covid-19-testing-rates-in-texas-fewest-patients/6093037/

Yeh, it doesn't bode especially well.

Part of the trade off is that lifting lockdown restrictions requires much stronger personal measures to prevent transmission. It can be done, but the question is how well it is done.

 

[baldgye]

I’ve not see this brought up in the thread yet; https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52255863
Coronavirus: Ethnic minorities 'are a third' of patients

 

[Famine]

I guess this is kinda supporting my view that an earlier lockdown should have happened, it’s a whole thread on Twitter on the difference/similarities between England and Ireland's response:



It is a thread so you might have to click into it to get the details. I’m not saying this is conclusive, but it makes for interesting reading

The UK's population density is four times higher than Ireland's - even North Yorkshire has a higher population density.

I mean, I'm no expert, but it is just faintly possible that a virus which spreads via person-to-person contact and which survives on surfaces might just spread more easily and quickly, and kill more, among a population that's more densely packed.

 

[Touring Mars]

Just saw an ad for EE - they are giving all NHS staff unlimited free data until October.

I really think more companies need to do something like this, and not just for NHS staff but all key workers... but it is a great start and nice to see that some companies are really stepping up to help out where they can.

 

[MUSC4EVER]

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been discharged from hospital and is now recovering at Chequers, he has been advised by his medical team not to return to work immediately.