COVID-19/Coronavirus Information and Support Thread (see OP for useful links)

[NLxAROSA]

Does anyone know which countries are and aren't reporting all deaths from Covid-19 rather than just hospitalised tested cases like the UK?
https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab

NL is like UK. They're going to monitor 'surplus deaths' to determine the true total. I think it makes sense that when there's not enough testing capacity you do it this way.

In the end we just need to ride this out while at the same time keeping the medical system from collapsing. Which seems to be going well in NL, despite (or maybe because of) the flexible/relaxed lockdown.

 

[Milouse]

Does anyone know which countries are and aren't reporting all deaths from Covid-19 rather than just hospitalised tested cases like the UK?
https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab

I know one closed to that:

Since France started to include this, we saw how ugly those cumulative figures are:
to date...
Deaths in hospitals: 10 129
Deaths in EHPADs (Home Retirement): 5600
That's a +55% correction of the death toll!

 

[Touring Mars]

I know one closed to that:

And yet that doesn't include any deaths that may have occurred outside a hospital or a care home.

I think this figure will be relatively low, but it will not be zero... and it could be a lot higher in some countries.

-

Meanwhile, the US is on the verge of having the same number of confirmed cases than the 5 next most affected countries combined (Spain, Italy, France, Germany and the UK)... incidentally, those 5 countries have almost exactly the same combined population as the US.

 

[Blitz24]

In odd COVID news, the state of Missouri is trying to sue China on the grounds that they are the cause of the virus origin.

 

[strela]

Meanwhile, the US is on the verge of having the same number of confirmed cases than the 5 next most affected countries combined (Spain, Italy, France, Germany and the UK)... incidentally, those 5 countries have almost exactly the same combined population as the US.

For some reason those European countries have reported double the deaths of US. Guess Europe is getting really old.

 

[Dotini]

In odd COVID news, the state of Missouri is trying to sue China on the grounds that they are the cause of the virus origin.

I don't think anyone in the West disputes that the novel virus originated in China, and that the CCP delayed and distorted the facts for several weeks, at least.

The basic principle in a lawsuit is that you go after the party with the money.

But yes, Missouri's action is odd, even funny according to the Chinese. China, Russia and Iran may be coalescing around the storyline of the virus originating in the US, and there may even be partial truth to that.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-ad...avirus-disinformation-report-says-11587514724

 

[Danoff]

Then what? You're moving an argument out of context to make it easier to attack.
We have to cope for months with a discourse of "don't worry, it's just a flu, keep living normally", I never read the fine prints "but we don't have vaccine so just ignored what I've just said".

I wasn't aware that I was attacking anything. I was saying that you seemed to be ignoring the point that others were making. If a comparison between COVID-19 and Influenza is being made as a whole, this is an important distinction between this data.

There's no "then what", I'm not leading you anywhere with this. In fact, this wasn't even my point. My point was that you missed the point of others.

It would be... bad. Does that change the figures in the chart you were responding to? Because it sounds like you're saying, "here look, if you compare it to this hypothetical scenario, it's not that bad!".

No it doesn't change the figures. It explains why the figure was not particularly helpful to the discussion. If anything, I was explaining that others were pointing out that influenza is more dangerous than its (still bad) statistics today would indicate.

 

[HenrySwanson]

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is revealing a problem that has existed for some time but is now becoming painfully obvious...

Non-peer-reviewed research is being snapped up by media outlets without a second thought. This study is not peer-reviewed, and yet even we are talking about it.

Read some of the comments posted on the paper at the site where it has been published (by the authors, without peer-review...)

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

... to say these results should be taken with caution is a huge understatement.

-

Frankly, the lead authors should not be going public (i.e. on Youtube) with statements about what isn't even peer-reviewed science. Indeed, the comments posted above on Youtube do not even chime with what the paper even says i.e. there is no comment in the paper about SARS-CoV-2 being in the same ballpark as seasonal flu. Not only is that particular statement misleading for a number of reasons, it is also not even substantiated by their own research... because it has not been properly critiqued.

Obviously, there is a need for new, robust data and results to be shared as soon as possible, but the danger is that the wrong message can be picked up and (ironically) go viral before that message has been properly verified - and in the current circumstances, that could be dangerous... and it is irresponsible to go public with statements on a study that hasn't even been reviewed yet. If someone in my department did this, they would likely be sacked.

-

edit: https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04...irus-study-the-authors-owe-us-all-an-apology/

Speaking of:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachel...y-trump-outside-clinical-trials/#7c8f89bc4b40

 

[Danoff]

Everybody always knew the future could be dystopian. Are we concurring the present can be characterized as dystopian?

No... I'm saying that I can see more clearly the steps between our present and the future imagined by Ms. Atwood.

And by the way, to everyone participating in the thread, if you haven't read Oryx and Crake, go read it. It's phenomenal, and it's very on-point with COVID.

 

[Joey D]

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is revealing a problem that has existed for some time but is now becoming painfully obvious...

Non-peer-reviewed research is being snapped up by media outlets without a second thought. This study is not peer-reviewed, and yet even we are talking about it.

Ya it's getting a bit ridiculous. It's even worse when you look at some of these studies that are either being talked up by the media and/or the authors and then you look at them to see their data set is less than 1,000 people or is isolated to one, very small region. I'm not sure which study it was, but I think it was a Stanford one, that determined its outcome based on 3,000 people in LA County. I know data can be extrapolated, but 3,000 people in one county in SoCal seems a bit weak to draw any conclusion on or even a hypothesis for that matter.

I do have to wonder if some of these studies have other motives. I'm not suggestion they're looking to spread disinformation or anything, but I can't help but think of a bunch of grad students racing to try to be the first one to publish findings so they can secure a job and/or funding for other projects while not adhering to the scientific method we all learned in grade school. I feel like it's leading to bad science.

Speaking of:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachel...y-trump-outside-clinical-trials/#7c8f89bc4b40

We're doing clinical trials at the hospital I work at and no one seems to think we shouldn't. Patients are given all the information and if they consent to be apart of the study, then they're enrolled and given either the drug combination or a placebo. I can't read the article you posted because I don't have a Forbes account, but I'm guessing it's similar to this one on NPR. With reading through it looks like the NIH's biggest hold up on using the drug is:

As for using the use of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine alone, the panel said there was "insufficient clinical data to recommend either for or against." It reached the same conclusion about the drug remdesivir.

The only way you're going to get clinical data is to run studies. So if you never use the combination of drugs, you're never going to get that clinical data to make a determination one way or another.

At the end of the day, we need to try something to come up with a treatment. If the drugs being tried are already available, have data on them, and can be made relatively cheap, then all the better. Sitting around saying "well we shouldn't do X because it might cause Y" is counterproductive. If people are willing to submit to a drug trial and know of all the potential issues, then I say let them since they are making the choice to be apart of the study or not.

 

[HenrySwanson]

We're doing clinical trials at the hospital I work at and no one seems to think we shouldn't. Patients are given all the information and if they consent to be apart of the study, then they're enrolled and given either the drug combination or a placebo. I can't read the article you posted because I don't have a Forbes account, but I'm guessing it's similar to this one on NPR. With reading through it looks like the NIH's biggest hold up on using the drug is:

The only way you're going to get clinical data is to run studies. So if you never use the combination of drugs, you're never going to get that clinical data to make a determination one way or another.

At the end of the day, we need to try something to come up with a treatment. If the drugs being tried are already available, have data on them, and can be made relatively cheap, then all the better. Sitting around saying "well we shouldn't do X because it might cause Y" is counterproductive. If people are willing to submit to a drug trial and know of all the potential issues, then I say let them since they are making the choice to be apart of the study or not.

Yeah, so the only additional point in the Forbes article was:

Hydroxychloroquine came under more scrutiny Tuesday after a retrospective study (not a randomized clinical trial) at the U.S. Veteran’s Health Administration found hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin did not make coronavirus patients more or less at risk of death than those who did not take the drug. But the study did find that “the risk of death from any cause was higher” among those who took hydroxychloroquine alone.

Ironically that study is not peer-reviewed and is retrospective but that's likely a major reason we have it so "early"

 

[Joey D]

Yeah, so the only additional point in the Forbes article was:

Hydroxychloroquine came under more scrutiny Tuesday after a retrospective study (not a randomized clinical trial) at the U.S. Veteran’s Health Administration found hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin did not make coronavirus patients more or less at risk of death than those who did not take the drug. But the study did find that “the risk of death from any cause was higher” among those who took hydroxychloroquine alone.

Ironically that study is not peer-reviewed and is retrospective but that's likely a major reason we have it so "early"

Given how terrible the VA (Veteran's Health) is in the US, I'm inclined to take whatever they say with a grain of salt.

 

[TJ13]

CDC is now reporting the first death to be in California on Feb 29th.
I think it was like 2 weeks before Washington's cases.

Then their saying it's going to be a mess come winter with Flu and this at the same time.

 

[MatskiMonk]

I was explaining that others were pointing out that influenza is more dangerous than its (still bad) statistics today would indicate

That's fine but it's an odd choice to choose to ignore factors that mitigate the risk.

 

[Danoff]

That's fine but it's an odd choice to choose to ignore factors that mitigate the risk.

I was actually highlighting those factors.

CDC is now reporting the first death to be in California on Feb 29th.
I think it was like 2 weeks before Washington's cases.

Then their saying it's going to be a mess come winter with Flu and this at the same time.

I saw that. It was somewhat based on a "2nd wave" occurring during the fall. But so far we have no evidence that I'm aware of to suggest that COVID is seasonal, or affected in a particular way such that it would have a 2nd wave in the fall.

If anything, we should have a tapering of COVID cases by then.

 

[Touring Mars]

I saw that. It was somewhat based on a "2nd wave" occurring during the fall. But so far we have no evidence that I'm aware of to suggest that COVID is seasonal, or affected in a particular way such that it would have a 2nd wave in the fall.

If anything, we should have a tapering of COVID cases by then.

There is no suggestion that COVID-19 will be seasonal, but governments worldwide need to start preparing now for the likely impact of flu season with SARS-CoV-2 also in the mix. Unless something major changes between now and then on the COVID-19 front, then the impact could be major.

Ironically, the same methods to halt COVID-19 would also help to minimize flu outbreaks as well... but again, that will come at a very high cost.

My biggest worry is the impact on frontline and key workers... given that the first wave could keep healthcare systems operating at full tilt until mid-summer, a second wave beginning in the fall could not only be considerably worse than the first, but we may not have the staff numbers that contended with the first. Couple that prospect with the idea that people don't buy into the lockdown as fully as they did the first time around, and we could be looking at something pretty dreadful.

 

[Dotini]

Several hundred nurses have fallen to the virus, I saw somewhere. Perhaps some unemployed persons would be interested in nursing and health care training?

 

[Milouse]

We're supposed to be under a strict stay-at-home order.
I had to go to a pharmacy today, and here's the front of the ice cream shop

Northern European countries tend to have loose rules but they're known to stick to them better than latin ones. So in practice, i'm not sure the result is really different.

 

[Jezza819]

My biggest worry is the impact on frontline and key workers... given that the first wave could keep healthcare systems operating at full tilt until mid-summer, a second wave beginning in the fall could not only be considerably worse than the first, but we may not have the staff numbers that contended with the first. Couple that prospect with the idea that people don't buy into the lockdown as fully as they did the first time around, and we could be looking at something pretty dreadful.

That's almost the exact point that I brought up with someone here locally about two weeks ago. Short of seeing people just dropping dead in the streets by the hundreds or thousands each day and maybe not even then, I see the case developing that some people are of the opinion that they will never ever agree to a quarantine or lockdown no matter how severe the problem. That's the group that I see some of these politicians will be pandering to and feeding their frenzy in the coming months and years.

 

[strela]

Several hundred nurses have fallen to the virus, I saw somewhere. Perhaps some unemployed persons would be interested in nursing and health care training?

That is a genius idea! We can just replace those sick\dead nurses and doctors. I'm sure it take just a few hours to train a person to do that job. Or not? Sarcasm intended.

Edit: Actually forget my comment. I really want to ask what are you thinking? Are you even aware how offensive your post is? Disgusting...

 

[McLaren]

That is a genius idea! We can just replace those sick\dead nurses and doctors. I'm sure it take just a few hours to train a person to do that job. Or not? Sarcasm intended.

Edit: Actually forget my comment. I really want to ask what are you thinking? Are you even aware how offensive your post is? Disgusting...

I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess his comment was meant along the lines of those who have advocated offering specialized incentives to boost our medical staff in the US (which I think is currently considered in short supply?) like free training. Of course, you're correct that it can't be done with the snap of the fingers, but the gesture I believe is in good faith.

Sadly doesn't do anything for us now as you allude to.

 

[Biggles]

We're supposed to be under a strict stay-at-home order.
I had to go to a pharmacy today, and here's the front of the ice cream shop
View attachment 913643
Northern European countries tend to have loose rules but they're known to stick to them better than latin ones. So in practice, i'm not sure the result is really different.

Ah, the lure of ice cream! Forget about alcohol or drugs - how can you resist?!

They do seem to be social distancing ... sort of. How come the ice cream store is open at all?

 

[Joey D]

Getting medical staff trained right now is going to be really hard. While there is certainly a bunch of classroom work to be done, most of the training comes from actually working in clinics and hospitals. Many universities and colleges have suspended their clinicals until at least the fall semester. Even if we could speed up that process, we then run into the problem of actually paying them a competitive wage.

None of this would be an issue and we wouldn't have sick medical staff in the first place if FEMA wasn't so terrible at everything and buying up all the PPE.

 

[Touring Mars]

I wouldn't be surprised if healthcare systems across the world begin to rely more and more heavily on volunteers and the army - and if/when that is not enough, then non-voluntary recruitment might be required.

 

[twitcher]

We're supposed to be under a strict stay-at-home order.
I had to go to a pharmacy today, and here's the front of the ice cream shop
View attachment 913643
Northern European countries tend to have loose rules but they're known to stick to them better than latin ones. So in practice, i'm not sure the result is really different.

That looks like downtown Kelowna BC, where I live. Talking with the guys at work, over the last week, we’ve all noticed a massive increase in the number of people we’re seeing around downtown. Traffic on the roads is almost at typical summer levels, parallel parking spots on all the downtown streets are full all day long (whereas roughly 2 weeks ago, it was a ghost town downtown).

At the waterfront hotel where I’m working (and had agreements about no one other than our construction crew being on the floors we’re working on), they’ve started renting out rooms hella cheap ($1500 CAN per month, when these luxury suites usually go for 100s per night, the penthouse is usually about $1000 per night). There’s kids running all over the place, I watched a “family” of about 10 people get out of the elevator this morning, just watched two women carry their snowboarding gear through our work area (hey claimed they were just at Mt Panorama) and just help themselves to moving our gear out of their way so they could push their cart full of groceries down the hall. The parkade fills up more every day, and I’m seeing license plates from Alberta, Sask, Manitoba, and even a plate from Colorado (no idea how they got across the boarder).

The other annoying thing is we were supposed to be doing all the hallways and common areas this year, and then do in the suites next year. Well, they’ve decided to get another company to start doing the suites, so there’s now twice as many construction people in the building as well. Furthermore, when this all started, we sat down with everyone who was going to be working here and laid out some rules and guidelines to keep us working while staying safe and cautious. We have sign in sheets to keep track of who has been on the job site, we have sanitizing stations scattered through our work area, we disinfect new areas we go into, etc. These new guys, don’t do any of that stuff. I’m getting to the point where I want to ask them if they’ve heard of this thing called Coronavirus that’s apparently happening right now.

Thankfully we still have lots of other work starting on some residential where we’ll be fully in control of the job site, no more of this playing around with these clowns. We may end up just finishing what we’ve started on the first two floors, and then bail on this job. I get that BC hasn’t been severely effect yet (as I’ve mentioned a few times, still consider myself very fortunate), but these people seem to be acting like there’s nothing going on. Everyone’s just on extended vacation, on the government’s dime.

 

[Blitz24]

I wouldn't be surprised if healthcare systems across the world begin to rely more and more heavily on volunteers and the army - and if/when that is not enough, then non-voluntary recruitment might be required.

Don't look at me to deal with it then. I cannot stand the sight of gore/blood, so I'd be useless as a medic.

 

[VolkswagenX]

"According to data from the best-studied countries such as South Korea, Iceland, Germany and Denmark, the overall lethality of Covid19 is between 0.1% and 0.4% and thus up to twenty times lower than initially assumed by the WHO." [source]

And for anyone bored of Netflix and interested in a different perspective on the pandemic. The part about our general health is very interesting to me and is imo missing the conversation about COVID-19.


+
10 more experts criticising the coronavirus panic and then 8 more criticizing it.

 

[PzR Slim]

Several hundred nurses have fallen to the virus, I saw somewhere. Perhaps some unemployed persons would be interested in nursing and health care training?

It's a great idea but don't know how successful it would be. For example, a group of different vegetable growers have earlier this week chartered a number of commercial airliners to fly in eastern Europeans to pick their crops. They had to do this because the British people who applied did not have the necessary skills to pick vegetables. I reckon the skills needed to be a nurse or health care worker are probably going to be a step up from picking veg. Pesky foreigners coming over here and knowing how to pick veg properly!

 

[Danoff]

There is no suggestion that COVID-19 will be seasonal, but governments worldwide need to start preparing now for the likely impact of flu season with SARS-CoV-2 also in the mix. Unless something major changes between now and then on the COVID-19 front, then the impact could be major.

No doubt.

Do we have any idea how much of flu hospitalization and death is "preventable" by vaccine?

 

[Jezza819]

It's a great idea but don't know how successful it would be. For example, a group of different vegetable growers have earlier this week chartered a number of commercial airliners to fly in eastern Europeans to pick their crops. They had to do this because the British people who applied did not have the necessary skills to pick vegetables. I reckon the skills needed to be a nurse or health care worker are probably going to be a step up from picking veg. Pesky foreigners coming over here and knowing how to pick veg properly!

The great state of Alabama tried something similar back in 2011 when we thought we needed to do anything necessary to get rid of them dern furiners. I remember it was said at the time that good American workers would gladly take those farm jobs. Well it didn't actually go as planned.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/alabama-immigration-law-farms_n_58c1d07fe4b0ed71826b55e0