I remember reading something that a bunch of scientists had agreed a second-infection seemed extremely unlikely, & that your immune system would have to be severely compromised to let a second infection happen so quickly after the first.
It would seem unlikely, but what is also known is that the immune response to any particular virus is different. It ought to be the case that the immune system will produce effective antibodies against a novel virus that provides immunity to a person against that virus... but it isn't known for how long this immunity lasts. So it could well be the case that people who have had SARS-CoV-2 infections are unlikely to get re-infected
now (hence those who have tested positive again are very likely false positives) but there is no guarantee that immunity lasts forever.
McLaren
Edit* Damn, another record high today for us at 187. Wonder if this is signs of a peak or we're starting to see the real seriousness of this infection.
Trump (among others) have played into the narrative that this virus will naturally 'fade away' i.e. that it will peak naturally before spontaneously disappearing. This is true, but only if there were no interventions against it... and the peak would be utterly enormous and devastating. No country on Earth is doing nothing about it - even those countries who have 'no lockdown' still have made serious interventions (widespread/mandatory testing, quarantining, PPE use, social distancing etc.).
This being the case, the concept of a single, clearly defined 'peak' must be dispensed with. At the very least, we are talking about
a peak, or the
first peak... and if interventions (such as social distancing) are abandoned, then you will certainly get a second wave - and if that second wave overlaps with the first, then you will not see that first peak, because it will eventually end up looking like a mere bump in the rising edge of the new peak.
Those who have demonised the interventions as more dangerous as the disease could well be in for a horrible shock. Yes, some of these interventions are very costly - and some will even cost lives, not to mention the potentially ruinous economic cost to millions of people too. But the virus is bad - and IMHO we are still not at the point where the costs of intervention outweigh the cost of the disease.
One question that's been burning in my mind is how long is this going to play out in a broader sense. We'll never be really over this until everyone is over it.
Lets take just California for instance. Knock on wood, we've had a decent response and the spread of Covid has been fairly limited considering the size of the state. Let's game this out. Say we stay locked in until new cases go down to zero. Great, we beat Covid-19! Awesome. But what if another state still has a raging outbreak? Can we realistically shut the state borders to prevent another recurrence? It doesn't seem feasible. On a global scale, how long is it going to take for a country like South Korea, which has largely overcome the virus, to feel comfortable enough to let Americans in? It could be years based on how badly the US has fumbled! I could see pockets of Covid lingering in the 'States basically indefinitely. Will Americans, in particular, be subject to mandatory quarantines when traveling abroad for the foreseeable future?
I guess the answer to all of this is extremely rigorous testing infrastructure and active field teams that can quickly tamp down outbreaks without locking down huge swaths of people.
Man. This sucks.
Exactly. This is why the eradication strategy is problematic - it is going to be very costly (and almost physically impossible) to maintain for any great length of time. The hope is that a vaccine or successful treatment is developed during that time, but this too could be some time away.
What countries like SK, Australia and NZ have shown, however, is that it is possible to put the genie back in the bottle without resorting to Draconian measures - but they have required an extremely well coordinated and robust response, and they will need to keep doing it indefinitely... and that won't be easy. But, the more countries/states who achieve a similar result, the quicker they can return to something like normal.
I reckon it will be much more problematic for states who cannot get on top of outbreaks, and who end up being shunned from international travel etc while other countries re-open their borders to each other. As said before though, I'm not sure how some places (like the USA, Europe's Schegen zone, and the UK) can have different rules for different areas without the political or physical means to prevent cross contamination.