That could be said about all data points. "Cases" depends on testing (which is why Trump is against . Even deaths.
Yes, cases are dependent on test. However, for the most part, total cases are counted the same way. So if Country A has 3,000 confirmed cases and Country B has 30,000 confirmed cases, chances are that data is showing a running tally of confirmed tests. There's room for error sure, but for the most part the data will be collected in a similar manner across the board.
With active cases, it's all over the place. One city might consider active cases to be all cases, a state might say after so many weeks those cases are no longer active, and a country might just reset every month. It's really hard to tell and really skews the model. Also, there's very little follow up done right now with people who've contracted the disease. Health systems don't have the resources to call every person who's been diagnosed with the virus and see if they're better or not. Even then, just because you feel better doesn't mean you're cured by any stretch.
The only surefire way to determine active cases is to continuously monitor those who've tested positive and continue testing them until the test comes back negative. Unfortunately, we don't have the luxury since it would overrun labs in less than 24 hours.
I sit in on meetings three times a week about COVID-19 (or rather on the phone). It's a multidisciplinary team comprised of some of the most intelligent people I think I've ever heard talk and schmos like me who just do predictive analytics. We, by in large, look at things like mortality rate and hospital utilization to get a picture of what's going on it Utah. We rarely bring up active cases because it's hard to really gauge that. However, the Utah Department of Health has now said after 21 days a person is no longer considered "active", even though there are instances of people needing to spending longer than 21 days in the ICU due to the virus. It's not ideal, but it probably captures 90% of recoveries.
However, while the number of new cases per day is trending smaller, it hasn't fallen off a cliff as it has in well-managed countries
While it hasn't fallen off a cliff, the US is doing better than some other countries. India, Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Russia are all seeing an upward trend for the most part. Those countries haven't hit their peak yet, while the US probably has hit its peak for this wave. We could very well find ourselves in a second wave, which would cause some serious issues since it would require another lockdown/stay and home and that'd nuke an already fragile economy.
Because it seems to me that you're being slightly defensive about America's performance? This may be because I'm over-sensitive. If so, I apologize.
To a degree I am. America is doing better than many people seem to think. While our federal government is nothing short of an absolute train wreck and Trump is a bumbling buffoon, many state and local governments are doing pretty good at managing things. The numbers in America are a bit strange too, it's heavily weighted towards the eastern seaboard. Nearly 50% of all US deaths are in New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Massachusetts. Those four states also account for about 40% of our total cases as well. Add in another hot spot region, the Great Lakes region, and those states (MI, IL, OH, IN, WI) account for 14% of cases and 14% of deaths.
By comparison, the western seaboard (CA, OR, WA) only accounts for 6% of cases and 5% of deaths. Those three states also have 51.3 million people in them compared to the 40 million in the NY-NJ-MA megatropolis region and 46.9 million in the Great Lakes region. So despite having more people, the western seaboard is doing way better than the eastern and Great Lakes regions.
I fully agree, the US could be doing more and we certainly dropped the ball big time on getting things contained right away. Trump did no one any favors when he claimed the virus was a left-wing hoax and spewing anti-science/medical rhetoric. Thankfully, some areas chose not to listen to him and focuses in on doing the right thing by enacting lockdowns, ramping up testing, and zeroing in on their problem areas. I'm most familiar with Utah, but we never had an official lockdown, one of the few states that didn't, and we've managed just fine. This is largely in part to our leaders ignoring the federal government and doing what was best for our state. We also have two big healthcare systems that didn't drag their feet.
So while things here are a mess, they're not as big of a mess as our media is making it out to be. Also, while the US is stumbling along, it's not the only country to do so. There are several other places that are botching their handling of the virus as well and we will see over the coming weeks and months just how bad those places get. I suspect when it's all said and done, the US won't be at the top of the mortality or total cases list.
