COVID-19/Coronavirus Information and Support Thread (see OP for useful links)

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TenEightyOne
The worse a decision gets the happier central command are for a third party to put their name on it.
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It's a tactic I'm not sure has worked here. PHE is responsible for the screening at ports (or lack of it), but most people are pointing fingers at Boris. I'm sure that something could have been done about PHE's executive powers in this case, I'm just not sure it would have been speedy or without other consequences.
 
McLaren
Arizona State Health Department asks hospitals to activate their emergency health plans.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/new...ld-fully-activate-emergency-plans/5321075002/
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I really worry that the West and Southwest states are going to have a bad time. We weren't really hit hard during March and April, I think this made us a bit complacent. I know in Utah everything was looking great, then all of a sudden, we're starting to see huge spikes. It's probably only going to get worse here too since Utah is a prime summertime travel destination for so many people due to our National Parks.

Although Trump isn't really helping things here in Utah (and I assume elsewhere):

287 workers test positive for COVID-19 at meatpacking plant as impact ripples through northern Utah

The plant employes 1,400 people are chances are they all have it, but the plant can't shut down due to Trump's executive order declaring that it's an essential business.
 
I saw that on the news last night. It can't be confirmed why they were there but we can confirm more cars in hospital parking lots at that time which clearly means more people in hospitals.
 
DesertPenguin
I saw that on the news last night. It can't be confirmed why they were there but we can confirm more cars in hospital parking lots at that time which clearly means more people in hospitals.
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Most health systems have started doing elective surgeries again, which means more people are being admitted. Someone getting a joint replacement can spend five or more days in the hospital and it can get pretty boring. Also, with more people out of the house, the likelihood of injury goes up too.
 
WHO is saying that asymptomatic transmission appears to be rare. This gels with the notion that kids don't spread it easily or often, because kids are often asymptomatic. Evidence continues to mount that schools should open in the fall.

It makes sense that asymptomatic transmission (for a virus of this type) would be rare. Symptoms are really good at spreading virus, it's one of their mechanisms for survival (extended phenotype). A virus that causes more symptoms gets spread faster, so the ones that cause symptoms win out and become prevalent.

The thing that strikes me here is that most of the fear surrounding coronavirus, and there is a ton, is that anyone can have it and transmit it without even knowing it or showing any signs. And while that does appear to be possible, it also appears to be uncommon. So maybe some of the fear was misplaced here.

It's easy to over-react to this news too. Adults put too much trust in their own ability and the ability of others to notice symptoms early on and realize what it is. There is a lot of self-deception in the early phases of an illness. I know that's the case for me at any rate... "this is probably just allergies, I just have a headache, I just didn't get enough sleep".
 
Danoff
WHO is saying that asymptomatic transmission appears to be rare. This gels with the notion that kids don't spread it easily or often, because kids are often asymptomatic. Evidence continues to mount that schools should open in the fall.

It makes sense that asymptomatic transmission (for a virus of this type) would be rare. Symptoms are really good at spreading virus, it's one of their mechanisms for survival (extended phenotype). A virus that causes more symptoms gets spread faster, so the ones that cause symptoms win out and become prevalent.

The thing that strikes me here is that most of the fear surrounding coronavirus, and there is a ton, is that anyone can have it and transmit it without even knowing it or showing any signs. And while that does appear to be possible, it also appears to be uncommon. So maybe some of the fear was misplaced here.

It's easy to over-react to this news too. Adults put too much trust in their own ability and the ability of others to notice symptoms early on and realize what it is. There is a lot of self-deception in the early phases of an illness. I know that's the case for me at any rate... "this is probably just allergies, I just have a headache, I just didn't get enough sleep".
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I saw this earlier as @Joey D also posted it.

I'm not sure if this is good news or bad news, though it makes sense... but if asymptomatic transmission is rare, and most cases are asymptomatic, that would suggest that the chances of the virus having already infected a large swathe of the population is low.

I guess it is both good news and bad news - good news insomuch as we should be able to control/limit the spread by urging people to take basic precautions when out in public, and bad news insomuch as it may also mean that herd immunity is perhaps further away than it might otherwise be.
 
Danoff
The thing that strikes me here is that most of the fear surrounding coronavirus, and there is a ton, is that anyone can have it and transmit it without even knowing it or showing any signs. And while that does appear to be possible, it also appears to be uncommon. So maybe some of the fear was misplaced here.
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I think there's a big difference between asymptomatic cases which don't go on to show symptoms and those which do. In the first the virus is presumably suppressed right from the start, in the second it's multiplying. Reports such as the choir that nearly all got it from someone who didn't have symptoms at the time would suggest that it is very contagious at that point.
 
Outspacer
I think there's a big difference between asymptomatic cases which don't go on to show symptoms and those which do. In the first the virus is presumably suppressed right from the start, in the second it's multiplying. Reports such as the choir that nearly all got it from someone who didn't have symptoms at the time would suggest that it is very contagious at that point.
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Contagious for sure, and it is contagious in asymptomatic people as well as pre-symptomatic people. But you'd have to put yourself in a really bad scenario, like a choir, for it to be likely to spread from such a person (is what we're being told now). Getting it from an asymptomatic person at the grocery store or by passing them in the hallway is less likely than when such a person is spreading as much moisture into the air as their lungs can manage.
 
Touring Mars
I saw this earlier as @Joey D also posted it.

I'm not sure if this is good news or bad news, though it makes sense... but if asymptomatic transmission is rare, and most cases are asymptomatic, that would suggest that the chances of the virus having already infected a large swathe of the population is low.

I guess it is both good news and bad news - good news insomuch as we should be able to control/limit the spread by urging people to take basic precautions when out in public, and bad news insomuch as it may also mean that herd immunity is perhaps further away than it might otherwise be.
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The issue I have with it is the amount of morons using it as an excuse to say, "See, they keep changing their mind!" showcasing they didn't actually read what the WHO said, particularly the parts, "More research & data is needed" and "If proven".
 
Danoff
Contagious for sure, and it is contagious in asymptomatic people as well as pre-symptomatic people. But you'd have to put yourself in a really bad scenario, like a choir, for it to be likely to spread from such a person (is what we're being told now). Getting it from an asymptomatic person at the grocery store or by passing them in the hallway is less likely than when such a person is spreading as much moisture into the air as their lungs can manage.
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"What we're being told now" relates almost exclusively asymptomatic cases rather than pre-symptomatic people. It's pretty clear that people are generally contagious for a couple of days before showing symptoms and have the potential to spread it - whether by singing, shouting, a casual normal cough, dirty hands, being in a confined space like a car... whatever. Sure, some of those are more risky than others, that wasn't my point. I'd just be regurgitating the last third of that CNN article if I continued.
 
Good news! But I'm inclined to think there should be a ''known'' disclaimer in there.
No locally acquired cases in Australia on Tuesday
For the first day since the pandemic's peak in Australia, the country has recorded zero new locally acquired cases of coronavirus.

Nationally, there were just two coronavirus cases reported today.

Both are travellers in hotel quarantine in New South Wales.

All states and territories have now reported final coronavirus statistics for the day.

In the past week there have been only seven cases of community transmission in Australia, six of those in Victoria and one in Queensland.

More than 80 per cent of Australia's infections in the past week were acquired overseas.
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https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06...-opens-7-million-global-cases-brazil/12333804
 
While I'm not a fan of the WHO, in this case, they were a victim of bad reporting. If you watch the entire press conference, Maria Van Kerkhove spent a good deal of time explaining the reasoning behind it but nearly every media outlet hooked onto "asymptomatic people aren't contagious". I watched nearly the full press conference this afternoon and I was caught off guard how poorly it was initially reported and how bad the snippet of the press conference I got yesterday was.
 
Joey D
While I'm not a fan of the WHO, in this case, they were a victim of bad reporting. If you watch the entire press conference, Maria Van Kerkhove spent a good deal of time explaining the reasoning behind it but nearly every media outlet hooked onto "asymptomatic people aren't contagious".
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I completely agree. The NYP's article posted by @Dotini is a great example. Where the article is correct is that confusion seems to remain (largely amongst the press, I'd say) about the meaning of asymptomatic - it shouldn't be confused with pre-symptomatic.
 
Agree with Joey. This falls back on the media for running a catchy headline knowing people likely weren't going to read the actual quotes being presented.

Now people are once again, just gonna use this clarification as more "evidence" to discredit the pandemic.
 
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This is not a good sign for Arizona:

Arizona calls for emergency plan as COVID-19 spikes after reopening

While nearly every health system has an emergency plan and can rapidly increase its capacity, what's going on in Arizona shows that the number of hospitalizations could outpace the number of available beds. I'm sure they'll be able to move some patients to neighboring states, although Utah is being hit hard in the south because of the Navajo Nation and I'm not sure about New Mexico. California can probably take some, but they will only take so many so they don't put their citizens in jeopardy.

Something the media doesn't really like to talk about and something that's not exactly publicized by health systems is what happens when you get to this point. Most health systems have a plan, and they all call it something different (I've seen everything from Plan <insert letter> or Code <insert some color>). It basically outlines a really in-depth procedure to determine who lives and who dies. The ones I've seen and will talk about assign a score to a number of factors and then it's put through an algorithm and spits out another score. Clinicians then use that score to determine triage order and who gets priority treatment like a ventilator.

I really hope that logistically these states can figure out how to treat as many patients as possible and not end up enacting their "doomsday" plan. If we do get to that point though, it's going to be absolutely tragic and I suspect you'll see some dire consequences among clinicians as well.
 
Joey D
This is not a good sign for Arizona:

Arizona calls for emergency plan as COVID-19 spikes after reopening

While nearly every health system has an emergency plan and can rapidly increase its capacity, what's going on in Arizona shows that the number of hospitalizations could outpace the number of available beds. I'm sure they'll be able to move some patients to neighboring states, although Utah is being hit hard in the south because of the Navajo Nation and I'm not sure about New Mexico. California can probably take some, but they will only take so many so they don't put their citizens in jeopardy.

Something the media doesn't really like to talk about and something that's not exactly publicized by health systems is what happens when you get to this point. Most health systems have a plan, and they all call it something different (I've seen everything from Plan <insert letter> or Code <insert some color>). It basically outlines a really in-depth procedure to determine who lives and who dies. The ones I've seen and will talk about assign a score to a number of factors and then it's put through an algorithm and spits out another score. Clinicians then use that score to determine triage order and who gets priority treatment like a ventilator.

I really hope that logistically these states can figure out how to treat as many patients as possible and not end up enacting their "doomsday" plan. If we do get to that point though, it's going to be absolutely tragic and I suspect you'll see some dire consequences among clinicians as well.
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I've read that capacity can be increased from 25-50% (as part of the emergency plan) to calm immediate concerns. Is there a significant chance of these additional measures quickly being used up or do they help tremendously to offset the initial max. capacity numbers?

In say, if 500 beds are being used, by the time an additional 200 beds become full, people in the original 500 will start to recover and leave. I know I've seen that Covid's ICU time is around 7-10 days.
 
McLaren
I've read that capacity can be increased from 25-50% (as part of the emergency plan) to calm immediate concerns. Is there a significant chance of these additional measures quickly being used up or do they help tremendously to offset the initial max. capacity numbers?

In say, if 500 beds are being used, by the time an additional 200 beds become full, people in the original 500 will start to recover and leave. I know I've seen that Covid's ICU time is around 7-10 days.
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From what I'm seeing the need for the ICU has quadrupled in the past 30 days. If it stays like that and they see longer than normal stays, capacity could max out again quickly or the demand for ICU beds could outpace how quickly they can set emergency units up. It's also going to depend on what other sorts of ICU related admissions Arizona hospitals see too. With it being summer, more people are traveling and spending more time doing outdoor recreation. That sort of thing definitely contributes to an uptick in ICU admissions because of accidents.

My hope is that health systems like Banner are equipped well enough to meet the demand. I assume they'll cancel all elective surgeries and turn most of their ORs and PACUs (post-op) into ICUs. Also, by removing elective surgeries, that'll free up space on the med-surg and ortho floors. They probably also have mobile units that they can bring in (think big mobile home looking things).

I know most health systems in the US are equipped to handle a huge influx of patients, but my biggest worry is the time it takes to get it all set up. There's also staffing issues too, but I think if things ended up really dire you'd see nurses come from out of state to help. Here in Utah, both major health systems sent quite a few nurses to NYC when they were at their peak. I suspect we'd see something similar in Arizona if it gets really bad there.
 
Joey D
From what I'm seeing the need for the ICU has quadrupled in the past 30 days.
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Arizona has seen an upturn in daily confirmed new cases, averaging a 4% increase every day in the last two weeks.... this is consistent with a quadrupling of new ICU cases over a month...

The fact that they are already seeing a quadrupling of cases in ICU implies that these figures are lagging behind the reality on the ground in hospitals.

The only way to ensure that this capacity crisis doesn't play out is to stop people from becoming infected at anything like this rate.

McLaren
In say, if 500 beds are being used, by the time an additional 200 beds become full, people in the original 500 will start to recover and leave. I know I've seen that Covid's ICU time is around 7-10 days.
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This is a major question - how quickly can people be turned around from an ICU stay... but even in a best case scenario, ICUs would quickly run out of room if the growth rate in cases is beyond a certain level... I can't see how ICUs could cope with a quadrupling of cases for longer than a month or so.
 
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Touring Mars
The only way to ensure that this capacity crisis doesn't play out is to stop people from becoming infected at anything like this rate.
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At this point, Arizona's only real option is to go back into a stay at home. But I can pretty much guarantee that will end poorly and won't be followed. I know Utah wants to effectively bar entry to the state from Arizona, but the legality of it is really questionable. Essentially states can't stop interstate commerce, but can close the border to everyone else. However, since pretty much anyone entering a state is doing so under commerce, you can't really ban anyone.

I told my wife the other day that I suspect the entire country will be knocking at the door of a full lockdown sometime around the beginning of August. I think I was a bit optimistic about that.
 
My kids' pediatrician was explaining to me that recent research into why children are less affected has identified that a lack (or pre-development of some sort) of H2 receptors in children may be responsible, as they seem to play a key role in the disease and aren't fully formed until adulthood. A quick search has not turned up any published research on this. But she seemed convinced that children are spared (for the most part, statistically speaking of course) this disease. She was telling me that her office (which has multiple locations and handles lots of kids) has only seen 2 cases of COVID, neither was tested and confirmed (presumably due to test availability at the time), symptoms were mild.
 
I dodged the Corona bullet it seems. One of my customers just called me to let me know that he had just spent almost 3 weeks in the hospital and is now at home with an oxygen tank. He started to feel ill when I was with him to work on his car, and that evening he went to the hospital and stayed there. Looks like my social distancing skills saved me, and perhaps it's wise to get myself tested.

Edit.

It has been 23 days since I was with him.
 
Dennisch
I dodged the Corona bullet it seems. One of my customers just called me to let me know that he had just spent almost 3 weeks in the hospital and is now at home with an oxygen tank. He started to feel ill when I was with him to work on his car, and that evening he went to the hospital and stayed there. Looks like my social distancing skills saved me, and perhaps it's wise to get myself tested.

Edit.

It has been 23 days since I was with him.
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Just out of interest, was your customer older than you, or a different ethnicity?

It sounds like you did indeed dodge a bullet... I do wish testing were more generally available... the UK is still only testing those who think they have symptoms, and even some key workers can still not get tests, let alone regular tests.
 

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