COVID-19/Coronavirus Information and Support Thread (see OP for useful links)

[Danoff]

While we're sharing stories, my wife's parents (low 70s) are going to come visit us. They just sent us an email with COVID "facts" aimed at making it seem benign. It's the most skewed set of statistics I have seen in a while. I honestly feel that their visit will put us at greater risk, when shouldn't it be the other way around? 2 of my kids are in daycare, and the 3rd is headed to summer school shortly. And my wife's elderly parents are the most dangerous for us to be around? I think it might be the case. They intend to hit hotels/etc. on the road trip to visit.

This led to a big confrontation and went poorly.

It occurs to me after this experience that to someone who is trying to protect themselves against coronavirus, the more you argue that it is not a big deal and that precautions are unnecessary, the more of a personal risk you make yourself out to be.

 

[Chrunch Houston]

I am expecting a huge spike in covid cases in the next few weeks because of all the protests.

I have a little optimism, because even though, for the most part, they weren't social distancing, they were outdoors (except for the looters).

We shall see what happens.


The Harris county Texas (Houston +), County Judge, Lina Hidalgo, ordered all residents to wear a mask in public. I believe that order has expired, but when I go into a store, I still wear a mask.

I agree with Ben Ben Shapiro. But I still wear a mask.

 

[Touring Mars]

This led to a big confrontation and went poorly.

It occurs to me after this experience that to someone who is trying to protect themselves against coronavirus, the more you argue that it is not a big deal and that precautions are unnecessary, the more of a personal risk you make yourself out to be.

Sorry to hear that, but I also strongly suspect that this kind of scenario will be very common indeed.

The trouble is that people like your in-laws are not just gambling with their own health ("We'll take our chances, thanks...") but they are also gambling with the health of everyone they come into contact with. Ergo, you would be well within your rights to tell them that they are welcome to visit provided they stick to the precautions that you deem necessary, and that if they are not prepared to respect that, then they are not welcome.

It's easy to see how this kind of thing can cause confrontation, and that is not going to go away any time soon.

The annoying thing is that the more careful people are, the more it reinforces the (false) belief that precautions were unnecessary/excessive.

 

[Touring Mars]

For the first time since lockdown restrictions were introduced, Scotland has reported zero deaths from COVID-19 today - a landmark achievement that should not be understated. That said, there is a definite sense that people are 'returning to normal' more quickly than the Scottish government may wish - from local observations such as groups of kids playing together for the first time in weeks (which I saw today), to protests (albeit admirably socially distanced) for the Black Lives Matter cause.

Meanwhile, the US passed 2 million confirmed cases - and the decreasing trend of daily new cases has definitely stalled.

 

[Joey D]

Ya even here in Utah where we've been cruising along with 200-250 cases per day saw a jump to nearly 600 cases yesterday. That's not a good sign.

I suspect later this week we start getting a bump due to the protests. I feel like a 1,000 cases per day is not out of the question, which means the likelihood of me getting it pretty high since my wife works with the public.

 

[Dotini]

...the US passed 2 million confirmed cases - and the decreasing trend of daily new cases has definitely stalled.

I believe I'm beginning to see a surge in new cases here in Washington. Possibly attributable to big crowds gathering in protest starting over a week ago.

 

[gnomefromnome]

https://www.ktuu.com/content/news/A...er-tests-positive-for-COVID-19-571085521.html

ANCHORAGE, Alaska (KTUU) - According to the Alaska Department of Transportation, a crewmember onboard the M/V Tustumena tested positive for COVID-19 in Dutch Harbor. Future sailings of the Tustumena are canceled until further notice.

At the time of the incident, the vessel had 35 crewmembers and no more than 60 passengers going from Homer to Dutch Harbor.

So far, 16 people have been identified who came in close contact with the crewmember. All 16 are also crewmembers.

 

[Daniel]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/418514/no-active-cases-and-no-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-nz

There are no active cases and no new cases of Covid-19 in New Zealand, the Ministry of Health has confirmed.

The ministry says they were notified by Auckland Regional Public Health that its remaining case has been symptom free for 48 hours and is regarded as recovered. The person has now been released from isolation, they said. Their case had been linked to the St Margaret's Hospital and Rest Home cluster in Auckland.

"This is really good news for the person concerned, and it's also something the rest of New Zealand can take heart from," Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield said in a statement.

The ministry said the individual was listed earlier on as a probable case but was removed when they tested negative for Covid-19. Then at a later date when they again became unwell, they tested positive. They were then included in the national tally as a confirmed case, the ministry said. Dr Bloomfield said it's the first time since 28 February that there have been no active cases.

 

[Necroternal]

Lol tree'd.....thanks daniel.

 

[Touring Mars]

I sincerely hope that NZ continue to manage SARS-CoV-2... their policy of stringent border controls seems to be working, but there must be a very high level of public co-operation in order to have achieved a remarkable level of control i.e. zero cases of COVID-19 in the country.

A few words of caution, however... since cases in NZ peaked around two months ago, global cases have increased over 500%, and currently active cases are around 350%. Daily new cases worldwide are still rising, and hence it is hard to see how outbreaks can be held at bay unless countries (like NZ are doing) are willing to enforce tough measures at the border.

Meanwhile, in the UK, quarantine measures for all overseas arrivals began today - and yet all that is really required of people is to fill in a form and promise you won't leave the house for 14 days. Most people will probably abide by the spirit of the measures, but plenty won't.

 

[Danoff]

Sorry to hear that, but I also strongly suspect that this kind of scenario will be very common indeed.

The trouble is that people like your in-laws are not just gambling with their own health ("We'll take our chances, thanks...") but they are also gambling with the health of everyone they come into contact with. Ergo, you would be well within your rights to tell them that they are welcome to visit provided they stick to the precautions that you deem necessary, and that if they are not prepared to respect that, then they are not welcome.

It's easy to see how this kind of thing can cause confrontation, and that is not going to go away any time soon.

The annoying thing is that the more careful people are, the more it reinforces the (false) belief that precautions were unnecessary/excessive.

I sincerely hope that NZ continue to manage SARS-CoV-2... their policy of stringent border controls seems to be working, but there must be a very high level of public co-operation in order to have achieved a remarkable level of control i.e. zero cases of COVID-19 in the country.

A few words of caution, however... since cases in NZ peaked around two months ago, global cases have increased over 500%, and currently active cases are around 350%. Daily new cases worldwide are still rising, and hence it is hard to see how outbreaks can be held at bay unless countries (like NZ are doing) are willing to enforce tough measures at the border.

Meanwhile, in the UK, quarantine measures for all overseas arrivals began today - and yet all that is really required of people is to fill in a form and promise you won't leave the house for 14 days. Most people will probably abide by the spirit of the measures, but plenty won't.

I can sympathize with New Zealand just slightly, in that my own attempts to protect myself and my family have left me unable to welcome others. At this point I can have an in-person relationship with people inside my "travel bubble" if you will, but not with people who have "open borders". Similarly, people with "open borders" find themselves shut off from people who are protecting themselves.

The US is my in-laws, and I'm New Zealand. I can't let them into my house because they're not being careful, and they can only have in-person visits with people like them, who have open borders.

I'm not saying that the US should be more like New Zealand, but I'm realizing that the same scene that is playing out nationally is playing out personally.

 

[Joey D]

I found this rather interesting.

Covid-19: 'We have to assume the virus has attenuated'

*If you're like me and have no idea what 'attenuated' means, it means 'reduced or weakened'.

While there's not peer-reviewed research out there right now, I think it's probably worth investigating. If COVID-19 is losing its punch, it'd have a positive impact across the globe.

 

[Danoff]

I found this rather interesting.

Covid-19: 'We have to assume the virus has attenuated'

*If you're like me and have no idea what 'attenuated' means, it means 'reduced or weakened'.

While there's not peer-reviewed research out there right now, I think it's probably worth investigating. If COVID-19 is losing its punch, it'd have a positive impact across the globe.

Cool idea. My first read-through was making me think that this would just show up in mortality statistics, but then I realized that attenuation would also show up as a reduced cases since fewer people would get tested.

 

[Joey D]

Cool idea. My first read-through was making me think that this would just show up in mortality statistics, but then I realized that attenuation would also show up as a reduced cases since fewer people would get tested.

So the data is sort of all over the place because of how things are reported. But, looking at this chart the weekly hospitalization rates appear to be going down. Then if you look at this site (scroll down a bit) you'll see that the daily mortality rate is decreasing as well. Yesterday only saw 373 COVID-19 deaths, which is the lowest it has been since the end of March.

This could mean many things: 1.) A large number of people who were going to die from the virus have already died, 2.) those who are at the greatest risk are taking physical distancing and isolation seriously, 3.)we're getting better at treating patients with the virus, or 4.) the virus is losing potency causing fewer people to need intensive care. I'm sure there are other conclusions to draw for the data too. Personally, based on conversations I've had with medical professionals, I think the most likely scenario is that we're getting better at treating patients with the virus and the virus is mutating and becoming less harmful to humans.

We still have a long way to go, but I think we're starting to move in the right direction overall. Now I just hope the leadership around the country can catch up and help medical professionals make strides instead of putting up a brick wall to halt progress.

 

[Nessy]

Meanwhile, in the UK, quarantine measures for all overseas arrivals began today - and yet all that is really required of people is to fill in a form and promise you won't leave the house for 14 days. Most people will probably abide by the spirit of the measures, but plenty won't.

One of my work colleagues friends returned from Milan to the UK after a skiing trip in Northern Italy, back in the beginning of March. She was advised to self isolate for a couple of weeks, but failed to do so, (she said she couldn't understand what all the fuss was about, Flu kills more etc).
Low and behold an outbreak of positive Covid-19 cases, occurred at a nursing home literally just around the corner from where she lives.
I do hope with all these relaxed measures, people do abide by the spirit of the measures put in place by our government.

 

[Touring Mars]

I found this rather interesting.

Covid-19: 'We have to assume the virus has attenuated'

*If you're like me and have no idea what 'attenuated' means, it means 'reduced or weakened'.

While there's not peer-reviewed research out there right now, I think it's probably worth investigating. If COVID-19 is losing its punch, it'd have a positive impact across the globe.

The article cites a postdoc in my old department, who recently authored a paper that debunked the claim that SARS-CoV-2 had mutated into two different strains, one being worse than the other. In your article, he suggests that there is no evidence to suggest the virus itself has changed, and I'd be surprised if he was incorrect.

As you say, there's a load of reasons why it might appear that the virus is 'weakening', but it is probably wishful thinking to believe that the virus itself is mutating into less dangerous forms.

 

[Daniel]

I sincerely hope that NZ continue to manage SARS-CoV-2... their policy of stringent border controls seems to be working, but there must be a very high level of public co-operation in order to have achieved a remarkable level of control i.e. zero cases of COVID-19 in the country.

There really was. I remember seeing one poll that was taken shortly after we went to level 2 (so we had already gone through over a month of level 4 lockdown and level 3 lockdown-lite) indicating that New Zealanders overwhelmingly supported the government's decisions.

 

[Submerged]

I sincerely hope that NZ continue to manage SARS-CoV-2... their policy of stringent border controls seems to be working, but there must be a very high level of public co-operation in order to have achieved a remarkable level of control i.e. zero cases of COVID-19 in the country.

A few words of caution, however... since cases in NZ peaked around two months ago, global cases have increased over 500%, and currently active cases are around 350%. Daily new cases worldwide are still rising, and hence it is hard to see how outbreaks can be held at bay unless countries (like NZ are doing) are willing to enforce tough measures at the border.

Meanwhile, in the UK, quarantine measures for all overseas arrivals began today - and yet all that is really required of people is to fill in a form and promise you won't leave the house for 14 days. Most people will probably abide by the spirit of the measures, but plenty won't.

Border controls does actually work well in negating the virus impact in the country for sure.

It kinda makes me sad to wonder why the economy is that important that MP in Government is willingly able to allow a large majority of people to die off from the virus itself to allow tourism to occur.

It doesn't make much sense.

 

[Famine]

Border controls does actually work well in negating the virus impact in the country for sure.

It kinda makes me sad to wonder why the economy is that important that MP in Government is willingly able to allow a large majority of people to die off from the virus itself to allow tourism to occur.

It doesn't make much sense.

The decisions on border screening (at least in England) fall under the purview of Public Health England, which is an executive agency that more or less operates independently of government and the DOH under which it technically falls. In effect that means government "can't" (which I'd suggest means "can, but there'd need to be a legislation change") force it to implement these measures.

The situations in Wales, Northern Ireland, and Scotland are a little more complex - Public Health Wales is an NHS Trust and part of NHS Wales, Health and Social Care is the equivalent body in Northern Ireland and reports to the Executive directly, and Public Health Scotland is accountable to both the Scottish Government and a local councils body called COSLA - but it looks like the various parliaments can control their PHE equivalents.

 

[Submerged]

So.... if England wanted to be the "world beating" option in "beating" the virus as BJ, the idiot, keeps banging on, then it makes sense for him to keep to the quantine line.

Honestly. I am not using it to be keeping other people out, it just makes sense to keep everyone out first, so you don't infect everyone else FIRST!

It would be such a bad media circus if that happened.

But it seems some people in goverment is so short-sighted it boggles my mind.

 

[Famine]

Honestly. I am not using it to be keeping other people out, it just makes sense to keep everyone out first, so you don't infect everyone else FIRST!

Yep, makes sense, but the decision rests with PHE, not parliament.

Well, kinda. I suppose that ultimately, if we wanted to keep everyone out, the UK could simply shut the borders via the UK Border Agency (directly under the Home Office), or to allow citizens to return it could suspend all visas via UK Visas and Immigration (also directly under the Home Office) - or suspend them from hot spots.

For the most part the latter is what actually happened - we closed most visa application centres outside the UK - and several airlines refuse to fly to China. Italy, of course, shut its own borders, so no-one got out. The fact we had zero screening at ports rests on PHE though.

But it seems some people in goverment is so short-sighted it boggles my mind.

This might be the big issue with COVID-19: the long term. People are looking at the UK's figures right now, and thinking we've ****ed the pup*. 41,000 deaths is a lot (it's comparatively middling though which, given our outrageous population density, is actually an achievement; people seem eager to forget this as a factor for a contact-spread pathogen) and it's about a 14% death rate compared to known positive tests.

That's actually relatively interesting because it's around double the global average and an order of magnitude higher than we saw earlier in the pandemic. That is interesting too, because early indications with random tests of populations with no known infections showed that around 96% of cases were totally unknown. Running those numbers up suggests that between 17 and 68 million people in the UK have had the virus - and that latter figure is our entire population and then some. That's somewhere between 25% and 100% of the UK population infected and, for the most part, recovered. Of course we cannot know whether that is the case without nationwide testing, which is why I said it was interesting rather than true.

Here's where it gets fun: COVID-19 won't just go away. It can't, unless everyone currently infected worldwide is isolated along with anyone they may have been in contact with since the first time they could have been infected (which is up to two weeks before showing symptoms), and if we accept that 96% of cases never present obviously that's simply not going to happen. The only solution to COVID-19 is herd immunity from the virus itself, whether that's acquired immunity from having the virus and recovering or artificial immunity from a vaccine. And a vaccine is not only not a sure thing, it's not even a reasonably confident thing - there has never been a human coronavirus vaccine (this may be because there has never been an economic reason to study one, or because it's incredibly difficult, or both) and the only coronavirus vaccine I'm aware of is for chickens.

That means that, really, acquired immunity is the way to go. I'm not sure what the appropriate figure for that is, but it's likely to be at least 55-65% of the population being immune to the virus. The UK might be near that figure, if the earlier fagpacket calculations were an indication - but again, that's only a point of interest, rather than a fact. Of course the risk of trying to get 65% of your population infected is that 1.5% of your population dies, and they're the people the herd immunity is supposed to protect.

This takes me back to the long-term point. The figures right now are pretty high (again they're actually not, given the population density), but that's right now. What will they look like in October, if we have a significantly immune population and there is no vaccine? Or by March 2021? What would they have looked like if we hadn't flattened the curve (and bear in mind that this slogan was never about stopping infections, but keeping them at levels the NHS could cope with at any one time; it may have saved some lives by preventing too many patients from needing care at once).

It may be that by humping the hound*, the UK is accidentally in a pretty fair position to survive in the COVID world thanks to widespread immunity, while other nations have to keep on tightening and relaxing measures to combat further spikes. It may be that it isn't. June 2020 is too early to say... yet. To do so would be, as you say, short-sighted.


*And to be clear, there was more we could have done; some criticisms of the government are warranted, some are not, and while we all have the wisdom of retrospect there were things we ought to have done but didn't, notwithstanding the stupid legislative barriers like PHE's executive fiat. For further clarity, any strategy that sacrifices the lives of a small number of people to provide safety for a large number of people is wrong unless the people are willing to be sacrificed, and heads should roll if that was the plan. That said I wonder if a few commentators on this are rethinking their trolley problem solutions while attacking this putative approach...

 

[Joey D]

I watched some excerpts from the WHO press briefing this afternoon and was surprised to see Maria Van Kerkhove's statements about the spread of COVID-19 from asymptomatic people. Apparently, the WHO is finding it to be rare in asymptomatic and presymptomatic people. If this turns out to be true, it'd be huge and go a long way in figuring out how to stop the spread of the virus. I'm still not totally convinced that asymptomatic people aren't spreading the virus around though, if that was the case you'd think we'd see fewer cases. From what I gather, for many people, getting COVID-19 feels like getting influenza. I don't know how many people feel like doing anything when they come down with the flu, they pretty much stay at home in bed until their fever breaks.

Here's the CNN story on this if anyone is interested:

Coronavirus spread by people with no symptoms 'appears to be rare,' WHO official says

 

[Submerged]

@Famine , it mainly sounds like that the government were pretty lackadasical if they allowed between 17 to 68 MILLION people to be infected.

I don't know, it just seems that @Famine is trying to defend the government, which is fair enough with data and information. But when it comes to govermental incomponentcy on not preventing it happening and creating the worse EU number of death rate, its kinda hard to make a postive statement of it.

 

[Famine]

@Famine , it mainly sounds like that the government were pretty lackadasical if they allowed between 17 to 68 MILLION people to be infected.

And yet without a vaccine there is no hope for our society to function without at least 60% of the population infected and recovered.

it just seems that @Famine is trying to defend the government

Go re-read the bit at the end.

 

[Submerged]

And yet without a vaccine there is no hope for our society to function without at least 60% of the population infected and recovered.

Go re-read the bit at the end.

I'm sorry, you are going to need to highlight to me the bit at the end of whatever you typeed out as it was a LOT you typed out,

Did you mean this part:

It may be that by humping the hound*, the UK is accidentally in a pretty fair position to survive in the COVID world thanks to widespread immunity, while other nations have to keep on tightening and relaxing measures to combat further spikes. It may be that it isn't. June 2020 is too early to say... yet. To do so would be, as you say, short-sighted.

Personally, I don't think we are on par to surive COVID-19 from what you are saying

 

[McLaren]

Banner Healthcare claims its Arizona's ICU capacity is approaching 100%. The Depart of Health added the state has its highest number of corona hospitalizations to date. Upside is all Arizona hospitals have plans in place that increase capacity by 50% as the article mentions the administrators preparing to add an additional 25% ICU capacity.

https://www.abc15.com/news/region-p...er-says-icu-beds-are-approaching-100-capacity

Similar news in North Carolina reporting the most corona hospitalizations at the moment as well.

Arizona State Health Department asks hospitals to activate their emergency health plans.

As COVID-19 numbers in Arizona climbed last week, the state health director sent a letter to hospitals urging them to "fully activate" emergency plans.

Hospitals are also being asked to prepare for crisis care, and to suspend elective surgeries if they are experiencing a shortage of staff or bed capacity, Dr. Cara Christ, Arizona Department of Health Services director, says in the June 6 letter.
....
One day later, Banner Health said it had reached capacity for its nine ECMO machines. ECMO stands for stands for extracorporeal membrane oxygenation — it works like an external lung and is for patients whose lungs get so damaged that they don't work, even with the assistance of a ventilator.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/new...ld-fully-activate-emergency-plans/5321075002/

 

[Touring Mars]

I'm sorry, you are going to need to highlight to me the bit at the end of whatever you typeed out as it was a LOT you typed out,

Did you mean this part:

It may be that by humping the hound*, the UK is accidentally in a pretty fair position to survive in the COVID world thanks to widespread immunity, while other nations have to keep on tightening and relaxing measures to combat further spikes. It may be that it isn't. June 2020 is too early to say... yet. To do so would be, as you say, short-sighted.

Personally, I don't think we are on par to surive COVID-19 from what you are saying

The only bit I'd disagree with in Famine's post is the word 'accidentally'... though it may well be true.

The UK Government's scientific advisers have said from the start that there's not much point in attempting to eradicate the virus (via extreme and prolonged lockdown measures) when the virus is still abundant elsewhere - it could work in the short term (and it is working in NZ, for example) but there also needs to be a long term solution... and eradication is not going to work in the longer term.

-

Meanwhile, looking at the number of confirmed cases per capita gives an interesting result. With a few exceptions (chiefly Gulf states), the percentages fall within a pretty tight range (around 0.4-0.65%). Qatar is way higher than anywhere else (2.2%), but they rely heavily on migrant workers from much poorer (and far more populous) states...

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/...per-million-since-1-per-million?yScale=linear

It is still too early to say, but the next couple of months should (hopefully) confirm or disprove the hypothesis that some countries may have reached a fundamental upper limit...

 

[Famine]

I'm sorry, you are going to need to highlight to me the bit at the end of whatever you typeed out as it was a LOT you typed out,

The bit at the end is the bit at the end, which counters this comment before you made it...

it just seems that @Famine is trying to defend the government,

And to be clear, there was more we could have done; some criticisms of the government are warranted, some are not, and while we all have the wisdom of retrospect there were things we ought to have done but didn't, notwithstanding the stupid legislative barriers like PHE's executive fiat. For further clarity, any strategy that sacrifices the lives of a small number of people to provide safety for a large number of people is wrong unless the people are willing to be sacrificed, and heads should roll if that was the plan.

To repeat though, right now is too soon to draw any conclusions from the numbers - and it would be short-sighted to do so.

The UK may have got enough people immune that we do not see a second wind (or at least a second major spike) for the virus... though it may not have. We won't know until at least October, and we won't have a clear picture of the virus worldwide until at least next March - or if a vaccine does come along to create artificial herd immunity (which is no done deal).

40,000 deaths is a lot, but it's well under the feared 1-2% of the population (in fact it's under 0.1%), and in terms of our population density (again, a key factor in the spread of a contact-spread virus; a heat map of population density in Europe is very close to a heat map of COVID-19 deaths) it's actually remarkably low. However, if those 40,000 deaths are the result of a deliberate strategy to sacrifice lives to generate widespread immunity, the architects belong in the sea - and not as a statue. If, as I suspect is more likely, it's due to the widespread inefficiencies of bureaucracy, we need a radical restructure of government; how PHE can come to the conclusion that there's no need to screen incoming travelers until two months after our caseload spike and three months after our own nationwide lockdown is bewildering (and it's still not even doing that), but how it can be allowed the power to take the decision is even more baffling.

 

[TheGeologist]

.

 

[TenEightyOne]

how it can be allowed the power to take the decision is even more baffling.

The worse a decision gets the happier central command are for a third party to put their name on it.