COVID-19/Coronavirus Information and Support Thread (see OP for useful links)

[Eunos_Cosmo]

Well, my company laid off 5 people today. We've been fighting for work but that work is becoming scarce. I have been seeing large international firms competing for jobs that they wouldn't have even noticed a year ago. I think my office (mid-size architecture practice) is a fairly good barometer of the health of the economy - this feels to me like the full extent of the first wave of shutdowns & lost jobs precipitating a new wave...coinciding with the ending of the paycheck protection money. This leads me to believe that without additional rounds of fiscal stimulus, the US economy is going to crater far worse than what we saw in March. Look for shocking unemployment figures in July. And covid is getting worse too.

 

[Blitz24]

New York and New Jersey are reversing course on the reopening of indoor dining due to spikes seen elsewhere. NJ, which was slated to open on Thursday, is now on indefinite hold.

 

[andrea]

China, breh, come on.

 

[ryzno]

Seriously...

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

Seriously...

Somebody's not a hugger...

 

[CodeRedR51]

New York and New Jersey are reversing course on the reopening of indoor dining due to spikes seen elsewhere. NJ, which was slated to open on Thursday, is now on indefinite hold.

Arizona just went on lockdown again effective immediately and going for 30 days. School start delayed until August 17th.

 

[Blitz24]

Arizona just went on lockdown again effective immediately and going for 30 days. School start delayed until August 17th.

I keep thinking that best case scenario, we will see some semblance of normalcy come April 2021. However, with the election coming up it might not be until summer 2021. Until people can be assured they can safely be in a large building with people without masks, most things shouldn't open.

 

[CodeRedR51]

I keep thinking that best case scenario, we will see some semblance of normalcy come April 2021. However, with the election coming up it might not be until summer 2021. Until people can be assured they can safely be in a large building with people without masks, most things shouldn't open.

There will be no normal until a vaccine is readily available.

 

[UKMikey]

I was just talking to a guy who lives in Angeles City in The Philippines. They've been open for quite a while now and City Hall was trumpeting the fact that we had zero Covid cases for more than one week prior to the lifting of the lockdown. Then a young market trader keeled over and died from virus symptoms in the middle of the city's busiest market. They locked it down but not before 22 cops tested positive (as cops and government workers are the people who get tested first).

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1106901

 

[Daz555]

There will be no normal until a vaccine is readily available.

Which might be never.....

 

[Joey D]

I'm catching up on some COVID-19 related stuff in my inbox and came across this survey from the CDC that looked at seroprevalence (the level of a pathogen in a population, as measured in blood serum) of the virus.

Commercial Laboratory Seroprevalence Survey Data

Based on the CDC's findings, it's estimating that in some areas COVID-19 infections are 10-11 times higher than reported. I got this mainly because they took samples from Utah and estimated our infected rate is estimated 11x times higher than reported. If this is true, it shows that COVID-19 is less fatal then we currently think. Taking the Utah data, on May 3rd (the last day the CDC's samples were taken on) we had 57 fatalities, and using the estimated 47,400 infections number, we end up with a mortality rate of .12%. That's a helluva lot better than the 1% that's the currently accepted fatality rate.

While this isn't anything concrete, it does paint a different picture of the virus and shows we still have way more to learn about it and its spread. Hopefully, the CDC's numbers are closer to reality than not because it means our overall fatality rate will be much lower than anticipated.

 

[Barra333]

The actual prevalence of the disease would be easier to extrapolate (using serum tests and positive cases) if China were up front about when the disease actually became a thing. Every one of us probably knows someone who had a nasty flu or something that knocked them around in December/January. Officially, these cases can't possibly be COVID, as it didn't 'exist' outside of Hubei province until well into January. If COVID was in the wild as far back as say, October, the total infection count will be astronomical as it would appear most early cases were mild enough to not ring public health alarm bells. This one is going to keep epidemiologists and virologists busy and intrigued for a long time.

 

[Joey D]

The actual prevalence of the disease would be easier to extrapolate (using serum tests and positive cases) if China were up front about when the disease actually became a thing. Every one of us probably knows someone who had a nasty flu or something that knocked them around in December/January. Officially, these cases can't possibly be COVID, as it didn't 'exist' outside of Hubei province until well into January. If COVID was in the wild as far back as say, October, the total infection count will be astronomical as it would appear most early cases were mild enough to not ring public health alarm bells. This one is going to keep epidemiologists and virologists busy and intrigued for a long time.

No doubt and I believe the virus was in other parts of the world long before February. I had an unexplained flu-like illness in January and was tested for Influenza A and B, both of which were negative. I have a fever, shortness of breath, aches, and generally felt like absolute crap. I got better, and 3-4 weeks later I came down with similar symptoms again and went to get tested. This time around I tested positive for Influenza A since my son and wife had had the week before (thanks daycare). It's unlikely that you'd get Influenza back to back like that, even between A and B (it's possible though and the flu test is only about 80% accurate). I'm not saying I have COVID-19, but I do go back and think about it anytime something comes out talking about the potential of COVID-19 being in the population earlier than expected.

Another thing that sort of makes me think too is that in January we had a huge convention in Salt Lake for one of those multilevel marketing pyramid schemes that seem to be popular in China. As a result, we had a sizeable group of Chinese convention-goers in town for about a week. Since the convention center is next to my office, the convention-goers used the restaurants, grocery store, and other commercial spaces (like the mall) around the area too. I visited those places pretty much every day that week too since I needed lunch or to run errands. When I went to urgent care when I felt sick the first time, the doctor I saw said they'd see an influx of people with the same symptoms around that time as well, but wrote it off as either "just some bug" or "the flu" without testing.

Like I said, I'm not saying this means I had COVID-19, but it really makes me think when I start putting pieces together.

I also wonder about EVALI (the disease associated with vaping). Many e-liquids are made in China or used ingredients from a chemical factory there. We started seeing this mysterious illness last year and I believe it's still not really explained all that well. While the connection is shakey, it does stand out in my mind.

 

[Barra333]

As a matter of public health record, I think serum tests should be widely available to people who think they had it before March. Problem being it probably doesn't indicate when you had the virus (did you have it in February, or an asymptomatic infection last month?) and we still aren't sure how long the antibodies stick around.

 

[Touring Mars]

I'm catching up on some COVID-19 related stuff in my inbox and came across this survey from the CDC that looked at seroprevalence (the level of a pathogen in a population, as measured in blood serum) of the virus.

Commercial Laboratory Seroprevalence Survey Data

Based on the CDC's findings, it's estimating that in some areas COVID-19 infections are 10-11 times higher than reported. I got this mainly because they took samples from Utah and estimated our infected rate is estimated 11x times higher than reported. If this is true, it shows that COVID-19 is less fatal then we currently think. Taking the Utah data, on May 3rd (the last day the CDC's samples were taken on) we had 57 fatalities, and using the estimated 47,400 infections number, we end up with a mortality rate of .12%. That's a helluva lot better than the 1% that's the currently accepted fatality rate.

While this isn't any concrete, it does paint a different picture of the virus and shows we still have way more to learn about it and its spread. Hopefully, the CDC's numbers are closer to reality than not because it means our overall fatality rate will be much lower than anticipated.

I keep looking at the data from New York and wonder if there is not already something close to herd immunity in NY already.

A figure of around 10x higher actual cases than confirmed cases is definitely plausible... and that would put NY state on around 25% infected already, based on seroprevalence alone. That doesn't include other kinds of immunity (like T cell response) which could account for a similar chunk of cases going unreported. That could plausibly put somewhere like NY state on something close to 50% immunity already, which is getting on for close to herd immunity. Couple that with lockdown of the most vulnerable groups, and this could explain why cases in NY are still going down, even though one might have expected to see a reversal of the decreasing trend by now.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

No doubt and I believe the virus was in other parts of the world long before February. I had an unexplained flu-like illness in January and was tested for Influenza A and B, both of which were negative. I have a fever, shortness of breath, aches, and generally felt like absolute crap. I got better, and 3-4 weeks later I came down with similar symptoms again and went to get tested. This time around I tested positive for Influenza A since my son and wife had had the week before (thanks daycare). It's unlikely that you'd get Influenza back to back like that, even between A and B (it's possible though and the flu test is only about 80% accurate). I'm not saying I have COVID-19, but I do go back and think about it anytime something comes out talking about the potential of COVID-19 being in the population earlier than expected.

Another thing that sort of makes me think too is that in January we had a huge convention in Salt Lake for one of those multilevel marketing pyramid schemes that seem to be popular in China. As a result, we had a sizeable group of Chinese convention-goers in town for about a week. Since the convention center is next to my office, the convention-goers used the restaurants, grocery store, and other commercial spaces (like the mall) around the area too. I visited those places pretty much every day that week too since I needed lunch or to run errands. When I went to urgent care when I felt sick the first time, the doctor I saw said they'd see an influx of people with the same symptoms around that time as well, but wrote it off as either "just some bug" or "the flu" without testing.

Like I said, I'm not saying this means I had COVID-19, but it really makes me think when I start putting pieces together.

I also wonder about EVALI (the disease associated with vaping). Many e-liquids are made in China or used ingredients from a chemical factory there. We started seeing this mysterious illness last year and I believe it's still not really explained all that well. While the connection is shakey, it does stand out in my mind.

You might have had it. I think I might have had it. Back in late March just after the shelter in place order, my gf had a mild fever for about a week and I felt out of sorts (really bizarre headache and detached feeling) and had a sore throat but was otherwise ok. My office's HR manager, on a whim, did an antibody test (despite not ever having symptoms) on a whim and it actually came up positive. So if my office HR manager had the virus it seems reasonable that other people in my office could have had it as well. I think it is a massively contagious virus that is a little more dangerous than flu. It's hard not to see the number of fatalities and say it's nothing serious, but I do think we have been overestimating its fatality rate and underestimating it's spread. If the federal government had taken testing seriously at the start of this, we would probably have a much better handle on both our understanding and our response.

I used to hold Federal US institutions (such as the CDC, FBI, CIA) in the highest regard - top level professionals with the best judgement. That veneer has been lifted during the Trump administration and all of those agencies just look like perfectly (and often) fallible groups of ordinary people subject to nonsense political whims. I feel like our blundering response to Covid is something akin to the Soviet's response to Chernobyl...the US Government is looking pretty exposed right now. Truthfully, I think a lot of this lays directly at the desk of the President because of his willfully incompetent leadership, apathy, and his aggressive gutting of federal agencies. While I personally despise Donald Trump, and always have, this is less a criticism of his platform (which I disagree with but that's his prerogative where legal - he won) and more an indictment of his complete failings as a leader...he cannot do it, even on the rare occasion that he tries to. He is magnificently incompetent in the role of President of the United States. This is what I wish my friends on the right would see.

I keep looking at the data from New York and wonder if there is not already something close to herd immunity in NY already.

A figure of around 10x higher actual cases than confirmed cases is definitely plausible... and that would put NY state on around 25% infected already, based on seroprevalence alone. That doesn't include other kinds of immunity (like T cell response) which could account for a similar chunk of cases going unreported. That could plausibly put somewhere like NY state on something close to 50% immunity already, which is getting on for close to herd immunity. Couple that with lockdown of the most vulnerable groups, and this could explain why cases in NY are still going down, even though one might have expected to see a reversal of the decreasing trend by now.

This seems plausible to me. Also explains how Wuhan and places that were hit hard early on have become nearly free of the virus in otherwise seemingly unexplainable circumstances.

 

[Joey D]

This is a non-peer-reviewed study from Brazil, but the findings are interesting all the same:

SARS-CoV-2 in human sewage in Santa Catalina, Brazil, November 2019

I'm a bit fascinated that they can pinpoint the date of poop so well, but beyond that, it's interesting to see some potential confirmation of the virus spreading beyond China much earlier than expected. What would be even weirder is if scientists were able to prove that the virus didn't originate in China but in another country. I don't think that's likely, but I do think it's something worth exploring assuming I'm not missing something that's placed the virus in China last fall.

I do have to wonder though if the virus was present earlier why didn't we see the uptick in deaths? Or did we and did we just attribute it to something like Influenza, Pneumonia, etc.?

 

[Touring Mars]

This is a non-peer-reviewed study from Brazil, but the findings are interesting all the same:

SARS-CoV-2 in human sewage in Santa Catalina, Brazil, November 2019

I'm a bit fascinated that they can pinpoint the date of poop so well, but beyond that, it's interesting to see some potential confirmation of the virus spreading beyond China much earlier than expected. What would be even weirder is if scientists were able to prove that the virus didn't originate in China but in another country. I don't think that's likely, but I do think it's something worth exploring assuming I'm not missing something that's placed the virus in China last fall.

I do have to wonder though if the virus was present earlier why didn't we see the uptick in deaths? Or did we and did we just attribute it to something like Influenza, Pneumonia, etc.?

A similar study (again, a pre-print and thus not peer-reviewed...) allegedly yielded a positive test for SARS-CoV-2 in Spain from March 2019... (this article does a reasonable job of explaining why this should be treated with caution:

https://theconversation.com/was-coronavirus-really-in-europe-in-march-2019-141582

... and yet it doesn't stop various news articles and media outlets from stating it like it is established fact. I have it on excellent authority that pre-prints are essential to the business of research science, but sadly one downside of pre-prints is that they are not intended to be a go-to source for media/news, but there is nothing to stop anyone from doing exactly that.

 

[Danoff]

A similar study (again, a pre-print and thus not peer-reviewed...) allegedly yielded a positive test for SARS-CoV-2 in Spain from March 2019... (this article does a reasonable job of explaining why this should be treated with caution:

https://theconversation.com/was-coronavirus-really-in-europe-in-march-2019-141582

... and yet it doesn't stop various news articles and media outlets from stating it like it is established fact. I have it on excellent authority that pre-prints are essential to the business of research science, but sadly one downside of pre-prints is that they are not intended to be a go-to source for media/news, but there is nothing to stop anyone from doing exactly that.

I have it on excellent authority right here on GTPlanet that non-peer-reviewed material is ass-wipe.

 

[Blitz24]

I keep looking at the data from New York and wonder if there is not already something close to herd immunity in NY already.

A figure of around 10x higher actual cases than confirmed cases is definitely plausible... and that would put NY state on around 25% infected already, based on seroprevalence alone. That doesn't include other kinds of immunity (like T cell response) which could account for a similar chunk of cases going unreported. That could plausibly put somewhere like NY state on something close to 50% immunity already, which is getting on for close to herd immunity. Couple that with lockdown of the most vulnerable groups, and this could explain why cases in NY are still going down, even though one might have expected to see a reversal of the decreasing trend by now.

While I can only hope this, we still can see new exposures in this area. It mostly boils down to people taking this seriously still AND not behaving like morons. There were 14 people who tested positive for the virus in Westchester county due to an individual(s? unsure if just one) returning from Florida to a high school graduation AND THEN attended a couple of parties. So, yes, it is definitely on the downward swing here, but you still have morons who don't seem to understand.

 

[JKgo]

...Another grim milestone in good ol' Republic of South Africa: 151,000+ cumulative cases, nearly 78,000 active. Over 2,650 dead. Almost 7,000 new cases overnight.

Gauteng, the province I stay in, has over 32,000 active cases alone. With about 15 million living here, that's like one in every 470 people now "officially" has coronavirus. Bloody hell.

But the government publicly acknowledged that they simply don't have enough money to do another lockdown - although they "threatened" to do it a couple of times already - and the relentless march towards reopening the economy continues. What a bunch of jackasses.

 

[Blitz24]

...Another grim milestone in good ol' Republic of South Africa: 151,000+ cumulative cases, nearly 78,000 active. Over 2,650 dead. Almost 7,000 new cases overnight.

Gauteng, the province I stay in, has over 32,000 active cases alone. With about 15 million living here, that's like one in every 470 people now "officially" has coronavirus. Bloody hell.

But the government publicly acknowledged that they simply don't have enough money to do another lockdown - although they "threatened" to do it a couple of times already - and the relentless march towards reopening the economy continues. What a bunch of jackasses.

You can only do so much to control people who don't want to be controlled (or are too stupid to see that there's a problem dancing naked in front of them).

 

[Barra333]

You can only do so much to control people who don't want to be controlled (or are too stupid to see that there's a problem dancing naked in front of them).

Or can't afford to stay at home. I think it was the Pakistani leader who said it - lockdowns are for rich countries.

 

[GBO Possum]

lockdowns are for rich countries.

Lockdowns are for countries with leadership who act quickly and decisively, and can lead their people in a spirit of mutual cooperation.

We humans have a limited tolerance, influenced by culture and empathetic leadership. Even the Kiwis were getting restive and they have the advantage of sensible leadership.

Here in America, we have (to put it politely) "erratic leadership" and adoption of the motto "Live Free AND Die".

Once the genie is out of the bottle, lives and livelihoods will be damaged.

NZ has reached 4 deaths per million
USA has reached 389 deaths per million

Elections matter.

 

[Danoff]

Lockdowns are for countries with leadership who act quickly and decisively, and can lead their people in a spirit of mutual cooperation.

We humans have a limited tolerance, influenced by culture and empathetic leadership. Even the Kiwis were getting restive and they have the advantage of sensible leadership.

Here in America, we have (to put it politely) "erratic leadership" and adoption of the motto "Live Free AND Die".

Once the genie is out of the bottle, lives and livelihoods will be damaged.

NZ has reached 4 deaths per million
USA has reached 389 deaths per million

Elections matter.

View attachment 936585 View attachment 936586

Rich country privilege.

 

[GBO Possum]

Rich country privilege.

Which is the "rich" country, New Zealand or America?

 

[Barra333]

Lockdowns are for countries with leadership who act quickly and decisively, and can lead their people in a spirit of mutual cooperation.

But they also need the financial ability to support people who can't work/lose their jobs to lockdowns.

Edit to the post above: both.

 

[GBO Possum]

This is a non-peer-reviewed study from Brazil, but the findings are interesting all the same:

SARS-CoV-2 in human sewage in Santa Catalina, Brazil, November 2019

I'm a bit fascinated that they can pinpoint the date of poop so well, but beyond that, it's interesting to see some potential confirmation of the virus spreading beyond China much earlier than expected. What would be even weirder is if scientists were able to prove that the virus didn't originate in China but in another country. I don't think that's likely, but I do think it's something worth exploring assuming I'm not missing something that's placed the virus in China last fall.

I do have to wonder though if the virus was present earlier why didn't we see the uptick in deaths? Or did we and did we just attribute it to something like Influenza, Pneumonia, etc.?

Anecdote: A tradesman was here recently and reported that he had a serious case of "the flu" in December 2019, and recent testing shows he has SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. He was on flights between Boston and Honolulu shortly prior to that infection.

 

[Danoff]

Which is the "rich" country, New Zealand or America?

Compared to Pakistan?

 

[RacingGrandpa]

Which is the "rich" country, New Zealand or America?

Both.