COVID-19/Coronavirus Information and Support Thread (see OP for useful links)

  • Thread starter baldgye
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A close friend's little girl has tested positive this morning, and so now he has to self-isolate until the 27th, meaning that their family Xmas is wrecked :( I just hope they don't get sick and that they can postpone their Xmas celebrations until after the 27th.

-

Meanwhile, here's a picture that struck home for me...



This is where I got my booster shot a couple of weeks ago, and I waited for an hour to get my shot. That queue was mostly inside the centre (45 mins inside, 15 mins outside), but was partly outside the building in three snaking rows in the car park. This queue circles the whole perimeter of the site and must be at least twice as long as the queue I had, and therefore it must be taking at least an hour for people to even get inside the building... waiting outdoors for that length of time in Scotland in December is not going to be any fun at all.
 
I was lucky enough to be in the early part of the 40s call up, so had my planned surgery jab today of Modena (no Ferraris in sight though 🤔). 10 mins in and out.

I have sympathy for those stuck in the queues though.

Just waiting for the lizard tongue and third arm to appear.
Got great 5G on my phone now though 👍
 
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Here in Ireland, we've crept a little bit closer to another lockdown. Pubs and restaurants will have to shut at 8pm from Sunday onwards (which IMHO just seems so half-assed), outdoor events are limited to crowds of 5000 or 50% capacity, and indoor ones to 1000 or 50% capacity (whichever is lower). We're still hovering around 100-110 COVID patients in ICU at the moment, but we've only got about 280-350 ICU beds in the whole country, or 5.6-7 per 100k - for comparison, Germany has 38.7. With Omicron and its vaccine-dodging abilities, it just feels like the clock has gone back 9 months.
 
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Update from the county where my university's located

COVID19 2021-12-17 Update: Omicron Variant | Tompkins County NY

tompkinscountyny.gov tompkinscountyny.gov

Results from sequencing of positive cases done through the Cornell University’s Virology Lab, in collaboration with Cayuga Medical Center and the TCHD show a high rate of Omicron transmission amongst the 18-24 Cornell University student population and additional prevalence amongst the wider community tested through the Cayuga Health testing site at the mall.

The initial batch of positive results from the 18-24 population, prioritized for sequencing due to the rapid spread observed and indication of Omicron, resulted in all 115 samples being confirmed cases of the variant. These results indicate that the primary spread amongst this population is due to the more transmissible Omicron variant. To-date there has been no severe disease reported amongst this population.

An additional batch of samples from one day of positive cases collected at the community testing site at the Shops at Ithaca Mall resulted in 18 of 44 cases being indicative of the Omicron variant. TCHD is awaiting additional sequencing results of other recent COVID-positive samples.
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This week, my school has 1567 positive cases. The county tested 115 random positive samples from the school, all of which were Omicron. This is why there has been an incredible amount of breakthrough cases and rapid spread. In addition, the county tested 44 positive cases from a community testing site, 18 of which were Omicron. This means that the variant has spread outside of the school unfortunately.

I had a close contact Monday and I tested negative on Tuesday at my school. I flew home the day after. A friend was exposed the Monday before and felt symptoms by Thursday and tested positive Friday. If my body had the same reaction, I would have felt sick today, so hopefully I'm okay.

I also got my booster today, Pfizer. My main shots were Moderna.
 
Danoff
Crushing news for parents:

www.npr.org

Pfizer plans to test a third dose of its COVID vaccine on infants and young children

Pfizer and BioNTech, which produced the first COVID-19 vaccine authorized in the U.S., say they will expand ongoing trials to include a third dose for children as young as 6 months old.
www.npr.org www.npr.org

Pfizer doesn't provide a sufficient immune response in 6 mo. - 5 years group based on a 2-dose regimen.
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Now they're saying Q2 of 2022 for the vaccine to be available. It's frankly ridiculous that we're having to wait this long for a vaccine for younger kids.

===

Some other concerning news comes from the Imperial College:
www.imperial.ac.uk

Omicron largely evades immunity from past infection or two vaccine doses | Imperial News | Imperial College London

The Omicron variant largely evades immunity from past infection or two vaccine doses according to the latest Imperial modelling.
www.imperial.ac.uk www.imperial.ac.uk
Basically, what it's saying is that Omicron is more transmissible than Delta but just as severe. If this proves to be true, it's going to be a disaster. I don't know what the healthcare system is like in the UK at the moment, but here in the US, we can't deal with an Omicron wave. The ICU where I work is 98% full and the rest of the hospital is nearly as full. We're also not able to keep supplies stocked either since we're, once again, having a shortage of everything.

We're also going to be screwed because this year's influenza vaccine doesn't match the dominant strain:
www.cnn.com

Flu vaccines don't match the main circulating flu virus strain, researchers find

One of the main circulating influenza viruses has changed and the current flu vaccines don't match it well any more -- an indication they may not do much to prevent infection, researchers reported Thursday. But they are still likely to prevent severe illness.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com
I pretty much figured this was going to be the case since we had more or less no data from last flu season.

It's really concerning because when the flu shot is a mismatch, hospital cases go up, especially among the elderly and immunocompromised. Typically, this isn't a huge issue because we can handle it. However, with unvaccinated plague rats clogging up the system waiting for their turn to die, beds are in short supply.

I don't want to say we're doomed this winter, but it sure as hell looks we're going to be doomed this winter. This is assuming that SARS-CoV-2 doesn't mutate again too, which it very well might. Pi, Rho, or more likely, Sigma could be just around the corner.
 
Don't all viruses always mutate to become more transmissible but less lethal? Omicron could be a positive development, a very good sign of brighter days ahead.Time will tell.
 
Fifth Circuit stay on OSHA vax/test mandate for companies with 100 employees or more dissolved by Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals in a 2-1 panel vote. GWB/Obama appointed judges majority over Trump appointee dissent.
 
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Dotini
Don't all viruses always mutate to become more transmissible but less lethal?
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Absolutely not. This has been a pervasive myth since the beginning of the pandemic, but even if it were true, it could still be a very bad thing...

Since Omicron arrived, there have been 'early reports' and much speculation about the possibility that it is more transmissible but less severe.

One thing is for sure, it is by far more transmissible, and this fact alone makes it a massive problem. But the reason why a decrease in virulence could also pose a major problem is in how that possibility would affect government policy, public behaviour etc.

In fact, we have already seen the effects of a widespread perception that SARS-CoV-2 is a 'mild' virus. A disturbingly large number of people have repeatedly trotted out various numbers, like "99.5% of infections are mild", "only 0.1% will die", "people under 65 are not affected" etc. While these claims are not important in themselves, they do however fit into a wider narrative that basically says that taking precautions (like lockdowns, school closures, vaccinations, mask mandates, social distancing etc.) and preparing for large numbers of invalids (i.e. cancelling non-essential operations etc.) are either unnecessary or, worse still, counterproductive... so much so that thousands of people are actively campaigning and protesting against such measures, and wilfully flouting advice and laws designed to minimise the impact of the virus on public health.

Governments and people around the world are wrestling with the fact that they must act decisively in what is an inherently uncertain situation. It is not just the fact that they might get it wrong - it is inevitable that they will not get it absolutely right. And this further stokes the flames of public discontent - go too hard and people will say that the laws were unnecessary and thus risk undermining future laws (moral hazard/cry wolf scenario), but go too soft and the healthcare system (and possibly wider society too) may collapse.

We're kind of damned if we do and damned if we don't with a 'less severe' strain that can infect vastly more people in a shorter timeframe, because once the idea is planted that precautions are not as necessary as before, then you are virtually guaranteed to see a much steeper and much larger increase in cases, which even for a less virulent strain could still cause more hospitalisations and deaths just through the sheer weight of numbers alone.
 
Joey D
Basically, what it's saying is that Omicron is more transmissible than Delta but just as severe.
Click to expand...
I read the report as saying that it could be just as severe, but they really can't say yet since there haven't been enough hospitalisations to quantify it. (That will of course change because no doubt it isn't completely harmless, especially to unvaccinated, but last I heard it accounted for only 15 hospitalisations in the UK so far). Looks like the title of the page you linked has changed since the preview for your link was generated...?

From the report: "We find no evidence (for both risk of hospitalisation attendance and symptom status) of Omicron having different severity from Delta, though data on hospitalisations are still very limited."

Obviously I'm no expert, but at this point the reports coming out of SA have more data behind them than this does, with the question being whether other places will have similar findings.

Touring Mars
n fact, we have already seen the effects of a widespread perception that SARS-CoV-2 is a 'mild' virus. A disturbingly large number of people have repeatedly trotted out various numbers, like "99.5% of infections are mild", "only 0.1% will die", "people under 65 are not affected" etc. While these claims are not important in themselves, they do however fit into a wider narrative that basically says that taking precautions (like lockdowns, school closures, vaccinations, mask mandates, social distancing etc.) and preparing for large numbers of invalids (i.e. cancelling non-essential operations etc.) are either unnecessary or, worse still, counterproductive... so much so that thousands of people are actively campaigning and protesting against such measures, and wilfully flouting advice and laws designed to minimise the impact of the virus on public health.
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They may be noisy, but at least in the UK, a thankfully tiny minority. That said, it's been reported that the first UK death with omicron was a man in his 70s who wasn't vaccinated, who had been taken in by the lies (and I'm assuming this was indeed a death 'from' omicron).

But largely, as supply issues with LFTs and massive queues for vaccinations show, people are acting responsibly and that's great to see.

Touring Mars
Governments and people around the world are wrestling with the fact that they must act decisively in what is an inherently uncertain situation. It is not just the fact that they might get it wrong - it is inevitable that they will not get it absolutely right. And this further stokes the flames of public discontent - go too hard and people will say that the laws were unnecessary and thus risk undermining future laws (moral hazard/cry wolf scenario), but go too soft and the healthcare system (and possibly wider society too) may collapse.

We're kind of damned if we do and damned if we don't with a 'less severe' strain that can infect vastly more people in a shorter timeframe, because once the idea is planted that precautions are not as necessary as before, then you are virtually guaranteed to see a much steeper and much larger increase in cases, which even for a less virulent strain could still cause more hospitalisations and deaths just through the sheer weight of numbers alone.
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I've said it before, but lockdowns have been as much if not more about being able to protecting businesses financially as protecting public health. Witness the current complaints that businesses are being hung out to dry while xmas parties are being cancelled, while footfall is way down generally - people mostly do listen to the advice, the uncertain part is how long they would heed it without being forced to.

Not in any way an argument against what you said, just another angle on "damned if we do and damned if we don't".
 
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Dotini
Don't all viruses always mutate to become more transmissible but less lethal?
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Typically yes.

A virus that's too deadly kills hosts before it can spread, killing the virus so it's unable to pass on its deadly mutations. A virus that's easily transmissible without being deadly spreads more easily, allowing for more generations with the mutations for transmissibility. Evolutionary forcing results in more transmissibility and less deadliness.

"Always"? No. They're not mutually exclusive traits, and just because transmissibility is selected for over deadliness doesn't mean deadliness can't occur - a virus that's highly transmissible will have more generations and more mutations across the board, including for enhanced deadliness. That means you might suddenly see a generation that's much more deadly while also being highly transmissible.

Over a great deal of time you should see any one virus type become more easily transmissible and less deadly, but in shorter windows you could see spikes of deadliness associated to a new subtype.
 
Famine
Typically yes.

A virus that's too deadly kills hosts before it can spread, killing the virus so it's unable to pass on its deadly mutations. A virus that's easily transmissible without being deadly spreads more easily, allowing for more generations with the mutations for transmissibility. Evolutionary forcing results in more transmissibility and less deadliness.

"Always"? No. They're not mutually exclusive traits, and just because transmissibility is selected for over deadliness doesn't mean deadliness can't occur - a virus that's highly transmissible will have more generations and more mutations across the board, including for enhanced deadliness. That means you might suddenly see a generation that's much more deadly while also being highly transmissible.

Over a great deal of time you should see any one virus type become more easily transmissible and less deadly, but in shorter windows you could see spikes of deadliness associated to a new subtype.
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With COVID though, where is the evolutionary pressure to do so? An average of 10 days from infection to hospitalisation, for those which get it that badly, gives it ample time to spread. Mortality rate is high enough to worry us, but not enough to limit spread. Along with the sneaky trick of being able to spread even before someone is symptomatic, it seems like the deadliness is almost just a random byproduct.

Is there a possibility that to achieve increased transmission there would be a greater viral load in the host, leading to greater damage? Or would that mainly occur in upper airways and be relatively benign for severity?
 
Outspacer
With COVID though, where is the evolutionary pressure to do so?
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Indeed - COVID's trick seems to be to do enough damage to make you infectious before doing enough damage to make you ill, so whether it kills you or not isn't relevant.
 
We're expecting they're going to announce a full lockdown, only keeping the essentials open, starting tomorrow till January 14th.
 
Dennisch
We're expecting they're going to announce a full lockdown, only keeping the essentials open, starting tomorrow till January 14th.
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It only took our government about two years to try and do the right thing before it's too late. I wonder who convinced our dr. Fauci (van Dissel) that now is a good time to panic. Van Dissel expertly played down, for a long time, the effectiveness of both facemasks and boosters.
 
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Denur
It only took our government about two years to try and do the right thing before it's too late. I wonder who convinced our dr. Fauci (van Dissel) that now is a good time to panic. Van Dissel expertly played down, for a long time, the effectiveness of both facemasks and boosters.
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Maybe they now understand that taking action before the poep op de ventilator klapt is better than panicking and knee jerking afterwards. As you say, perhaps they needed 2 years to learn.
 
Stark warnings from UK Government scientific advisers tonight, as they predict between 600,000 and 2 million cases a day by the end of the month (in two weeks from now), 3000 - 10000 hospitalisations per day, and between 600 and 6000 deaths a day...

The situation is now that even the low end of these estimates would be very bad indeed, causing widespread disruption and crippling the healthcare system for weeks if not months to come. The high end, on the other hand, would be nothing short of a catastrophe.

I am going home tomorrow and I'm preparing for the worst. Unfortunately, I'm way less prepared this time around as I was at the start of the pandemic, but unfortunately most of my worst predictions that didn't transpire in early 2020 could now well play out within the next month here in the UK.
 
Dennisch
We're expecting they're going to announce a full lockdown, only keeping the essentials open, starting tomorrow till January 14th.
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My daughter, who is at UCR Middelburg, told me that one of her classmates organized a big Christmas party yesterday. She asked him to reconsider, but he laughed it off. Now he's going home to Czechia - a country which already has one of the highest mortality rates in the world - to visit with his parents & grandparents. 😕
 
Biggles
My daughter, who is at UCR Middelburg, told me that one of her classmates organized a big Christmas party yesterday. She asked him to reconsider, but he laughed it off. Now he's going home to Czechia - a country which already has one of the highest mortality rates in the world - to visit with his parents & grandparents. 😕
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Quality logic, which isn't uncommon nowadays around the world.
 
Piers Corbyn, anti-vaxxer Covidiot extraordinaire and brother of the former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, spoke at the protest rally in London tonight and called on people who disagreed with COVID restrictions to "visit their MPs office and burn them down".

I hope this disgusting **** gets what he deserves.
 
Touring Mars
Piers Corbyn, anti-vaxxer Covidiot extraordinaire and brother of the former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, spoke at the protest rally in London tonight and called on people who disagreed with COVID restrictions to "visit their MPs office and burn them down".

I hope this disgusting **** gets what he deserves.
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He sounds nice.
 

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