That gif, so amply demonstrating what Birx had to deal with, is utterly depressing
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Today though there's some hopefully good news about Omicron in another study from South Africa, finding that Omicron cases are maybe 80% less likely to be hospitalised than from other variants. Huge caveat over what role the high previous infection rate vs low vaccination rate has to play.
Background The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant of concern (VOC) almost completely replaced other variants in South Africa during November 2021, and was associated with a rapid increase in COVID-19 cases. We aimed to assess clinical severity of individuals infected with Omicron, using S Gene Target...
www.medrxiv.org
Similar findings in Scotland but with much smaller numbers:
The risk of needing hospital treatment could be 30 - 70% lower with Omicron than other variants.
www.bbc.co.uk
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UK has hit a new record of 106k recorded cases today, after bouncing around about 95k for a few days. TBH there are so many factors in those figures that it's not a particularly useful one to watch. The Zoe covid study's estimate today is 144k. Both have some lag. Unclear whether we'll get an update from the ONS on Friday, but in any case it has even more lag.
Better to look at London:
Cases were hovering around 3k to 4k per day but recently peaked (?) at 26k.
Testing has doubled however the positivity rate is also up, from about 5% to about 20% - this is well into the kind of levels that mean many cases are missed, IMO (the opposite of "more testing means more cases", since that only applies if case rates are stable).
Admissions are up three-fold to 300/day, although there have been reports that about 50% were incidental findings ('with' not 'from') a few days ago. If that's true, it could be an even higher % now.
Deaths are continuing to fall, under 100/day now, but of course it's too early to see how the latest surge in admissions will turn out.
Re admissions, in Dec 2019, London region had about 84k non-elective and 102k elective admissions, so a bit over 6k per day (
ref). Although those numbers may be lower this month, particularly elective, it's easy to see how the number of incidental findings of COVID can be quite high given the expected prevalence of COVID in London right now.
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Stark warnings from UK Government scientific advisers tonight, as they predict between 600,000 and 2 million cases a day by the end of the month (in two weeks from now), 3000 - 10000 hospitalisations per day, and between 600 and 6000 deaths a day...
The situation is now that even the low end of these estimates would be very bad indeed, causing widespread disruption and crippling the healthcare system for weeks if not months to come. The high end, on the other hand, would be nothing short of a catastrophe.
I am going home tomorrow and I'm preparing for the worst. Unfortunately, I'm way less prepared this time around as I was at the start of the pandemic, but unfortunately most of my worst predictions that didn't transpire in early 2020 could now well play out within the next month here in the UK.
Has there been an official release of this modelling yet? Curious to know which of the estimates are worst case and which might actually be realistic - it appears to be something of a mixture! (admissions/case appears to allow for some degree of vaccine protection / reduced severity, however, deaths/admission seems to go very far the other way for the high estimate).