COVID-19/Coronavirus Information and Support Thread (see OP for useful links)

[Touring Mars]

Meanwhile, the UK just recorded more new cases in one day than China has reported during the entire pandemic.

If you are wondering how that is possible, you are not alone...

 

[05XR8]

Thanks to this two weeks ago, we’re back to masks and checking in.

Newcastle COVID outbreak could become one of 'highest-transmission events' in the world this year

The Argyle House nightclub COVID-19 cluster has grown to 150, after 650 people checked into an event there last Wednesday.

www.abc.net.au

 

[MatskiMonk]

If you are wondering how that is possible

...also because China is probably lying through its teeth...

 

[Hayden]

Here in South Australia, we have had pretty much complete freedom along with extremely low numbers since the pandemic began. We’ve spent 10 days in lockdown total, and only had a total of 922 cases and 4 deaths.

We are about to open our borders to CV positive Victoria (1167 cases a day) and New South Wales (178 cases a day) while we’re sitting just under an 80% double vaxxed adult population.

In total, to this second, we have 324 metro ED beds, 193 are full and patients are waiting on average around 2.5 hours to get a bed. When they are busy, they fill the lot and our ambulances are failing to reach up to 16 patients at a time who are getting taxis to the ED instead. Where they’re waiting for up to 7 hours.

Adelaide hosted one of those protests yesterday, calling for the freedom to choose if you want to be vaccinated or not. My parents (52, doesn’t like needles & 50, immunocompromised) went to this rally for something to do. They came out saying how they’ve got the right to choose; if they don’t want it they don’t need it; they’ll get blood clots from the vaccine and the virus isn’t that bad etc, etc, etc.

I told them I could wax lyrical about this all day, but here’s the facts.

We have not had to worry about the virus here at all. That is certainly about to change. Our hospitals are not ready. Our ambulances are not ready. Our people are complacent beyond belief. Your 150x more likely to get a clot from the virus than the vaccine. Unvaxxed are 3x more likely to get Covid and 10x more likely to die from it. I want my 6 month old daughter to grow up knowing her grandparents.

I told them, go do your own research, from statistics and databases not YouTube and protests. And if you choose not to get it you will live, or otherwise, with the consequences.

In all honestly I am sick to death of this discussion. Get the 🤬 vaccine for 🤬 sake.

Update: It’s been a month since we opened the borders. We had a record of nearly 500 new cases in a day today. 1200 people currently have the virus. Tens of Thousands of people are in isolation for christmas.

My parents are still unvaccinated, and I’ll be heading there for Christmas. I’ve been taking extra precautions for weeks now and avoiding the public, but it’s now spreading so quickly. I seriously hope I don’t give them an unwanted gift.

 

[FerrariF1GT]

Meanwhile, the UK just recorded more new cases in one day than China has reported during the entire pandemic.

If you are wondering how that is possible, you are not alone...

Because Xi is too chicken to report the real case count because it wouldn’t look good for the CCP?

 

[Blitz24]

Because Xi is too chicken to report the real case count because it wouldn’t look good for the CCP?

Because Xi wants to make the Western world look bad. Granted, we are doing a great job of that without his encouragement but if anti-vaxxers want to see what truly is an authoritarian state then look no further than China... but I digress.

 

[Joey D]

The AstraZeneca vaccine is shown to protect against Omicron if you're boosted according to Oxford University:

AstraZeneca vaccine booster works against Omicron, Oxford lab study finds

A three-dose course of AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine is effective against the rapidly-spreading Omicron coronavirus variant, the pharmaceutical company said on Thursday, citing data from an Oxford University lab study.

www.reuters.com

 

[Biggles]

This is how hopeless this seems: last night I started to experience mild "flu-like" symptoms. I work remotely. I have had no unmasked indoors contact with other people for months.

I dutifully called into the Ontario Covid online portal. I got an appointment for a PCR test for Dec 29th. I have an appointment for a Covid booster shot on Dec 27th. I have no way of knowing if I have a cold or flu or Covid until 2 to 3 days after Dec 29th when the test results become available, at which point I may be almost beyond the contagious stage. I imagine this scenario being repeated thousands of times throughout the province over the coming days. Self isolating under those circumstances - let alone "contact tracing" - seems entirely impossible. And even if currently Ontario has rapidly climbing infection rates, it's still a fraction of what it is in the UK & other European countries.

Hopefully Omicron will prove much less deadly than previous variants & vaccines will prove effective at reducing hospitalizations & deaths ... but stopping the spread of the virus seems pretty impossible without the most rigorous mandated shut-downs.

 

[Touring Mars]

Yes, I think the time for soft-touch approaches like contact tracing is well past.

Now, it's a straight fight between the virus and the capability of people to handle it.

Frankly, if you have forsaken the protection(s) available, then good luck to you - and let's hope that the collective behaviour of those who have refused protection doesn't end up scuppering us all.

-

Of my group of 6 friends in Edinburgh, 3 are now self-isolating, all of them over Xmas day. I'm not one of them, but a positive test in my family right now would be disastrous, not least as my Dad is due to be released from hospital next week, and a positive test for any of us would make it very risky for him.

119,000 cases in the UK today, and Scotland's testing regime had a massive hiccup yesterday, but normal service seems to have resumed, with ca. 6,200 cases reported today, even though that is likely to be a large underestimate of the true infection numbers.

 

[Biggles]

Now, it's a straight fight between the virus and the capability of people to handle it.

My impression is that the spread of the virus is ultimately unstoppable. The only effect that human intervention has is to mitigate the resulting deaths & long-term sickness. Looking back. I remember predictions of up to 2.4 million deaths in the US. That seemed wildly pessimistic to most people at the the time, but I'm guessing the final figure will be around 1 million & might have reached that 2.4 million figure without the development of the vaccines.

 

[Joey D]

On the tails of Pfizer's FDA authorization, Merck gets authorization for its COVID pill molnupiravir.

U.S. authorizes Merck pill as second at-home COVID-19 treatment

The U.S. on Thursday authorized Merck & Co's antiviral pill for COVID-19 for certain high-risk adult patients, a day after giving a broader go-ahead to a similar but more effective treatment from Pfizer Inc .

www.reuters.com

 

[Biggles]

My dilemma: I don't see any obvious way I would have got Covid ... but the same thing is true of a cold or flu. Do I go to my Covid booster shot appointment on Jan 27th, two days before my PCR test? If I do have Covid, I probably don't need a booster shot. If I'm not that sick by Dec 29th there's probably no point in getting a PCR test. If I am that sick by Dec 29th it's pretty certain that I do have Covid so I don't really need a PCR test.

 

[Outspacer]

119,000 cases in the UK today, and Scotland's testing regime had a massive hiccup yesterday, but normal service seems to have resumed, with ca. 6,200 cases reported today, even though that is likely to be a large underestimate of the true infection numbers.

Zoe covid study is reporting 151k today, based on data from two days ago. Trajectory would see it closer to 200k in two days time, which would be in line with its estimates from a month or so ago being almost double the official reported cases stat. On top of that there will be some - potentially huge - number of asymptomatic and very minor cases, where people don't get a test.

Was it Ferguson who said some days ago that he thought cases were already in the hundreds of thousands? If that was right, it could easily be over half a million by now. However scary that number is though, I think it could only be correct if there were vast numbers of trivial cases. So that may be good news as far as Omicron is concerned.

There's still plenty of Delta around as well. Latest ONS report (based on data from last week) estimates that 5.9% of kids were positive, and it's likely to be mostly Delta:

Our survey shows in the week ending 16 December 2021:

• the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 in England increased in all age groups except those in school year 7 to school year 11 and those aged 70 years and older, where their trends were uncertain
• the highest percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 was in those aged two to school Year 6 at 5.90% (95% credible interval: 5.21% to 6.65%)

Recent analysis on the predictors of Omicron (B.1.1.529) positivity published on 21 December 2021 suggests that positive cases among school age children are much less likely to be compatible with Omicron (B.1.1.529) than positive cases among adults. Therefore, positivity in school age children is still primarily driven by infections with Delta (B.1. 617.2 and its genetic descendants). More information on our analysis of predictors of Omicron (B.1.1.529) positivity is available in our statement.

TBH there wasn't much else of interest in the report this week as it doesn't catch much of the Omicron surge. Another due on the 31st. One question I'm hoping that gives some insight on is whether Omicron is changing the proportion of otherwise unreported cases compared to Delta.

So overall, a whole lot of "dunno"! Especially since even the reported case numbers in hotspots are likely to be less than they would be if positivity rate wasn't so high (20% in London).

 

[TexRex]

molnupiravir

Sounds like the name of a creature from Norse mythology.

 

[Famine]

Sounds like the name of a creature from Norse mythology.

It's actually the name of the forge in which the dwarf brothers Brokkr and Eitri smithed - among other things - Thor's hammer Mjolnir.

 

[CodeRedR51]

My Mom is asking me if I am going over to my brother's house for Christmas and I told her it's probably not a great idea since he's had Covid recently. Mild case, but still. His wife had something I guess that lasted a couple days but I don't believe she was tested. One of my nephews apparently tested positive and then when tested again it came up negative. Needless to say I don't believe I, or anyone else, should be going to that house and I told her that. Especially her because her immune system is compromised from going through breast cancer treatments. Should I flat out tell her no? She seems to think it's OK because it's been 2 weeks...

Update: She told me that she didn't want to go so, I told her to tell him that she was not going over there and she did. She's just been through breast cancer treatments and just got out of surgery a couple days ago so she is in no condition to be around anyone that's been infected. Don't care how long ago it was.

 

[Blitz24]

Sounds like the name of a creature from Norse mythology.

Perhaps it is the hammer of Loki.

 

[Joey D]

Sounds like the name of a creature from Norse mythology.

Funny enough, it's named after Mjölnir.

Meet molnupiravir, Merck’s Thor-inspired pill that hammers COVID

In Phase III trial, the drug smashed hospitalization and death rate by about half.

arstechnica.com

It's actually the name of the forge in which the dwarf brothers Brokkr and Eitri smithed - among other things - Thor's hammer Mjolnir.

I thought the forge didn't really have a name and was just a magical forge? It's been a minute since I've read Skáldskaparmál though and it probably varies greatly depending on what translation of the Prose Edda you read.

 

[TexRex]

 

[Famine]

I thought the forge didn't really have a name and was just a magical forge? It's been a minute since I've read Skáldskaparmál though and it probably varies greatly depending on what translation of the Prose Edda you read.

No idea, I made it up.

 

[05XR8]

On the tails of Pfizer's FDA authorization, Merck gets authorization for its COVID pill molnupiravir.

U.S. authorizes Merck pill as second at-home COVID-19 treatment

The U.S. on Thursday authorized Merck & Co's antiviral pill for COVID-19 for certain high-risk adult patients, a day after giving a broader go-ahead to a similar but more effective treatment from Pfizer Inc .

www.reuters.com

Is there a blue pill for the anti-vaxxers?… Just asking for a friend.

 

[TexRex]

Is there a blue pill for the anti-vaxxers?… Just asking for a friend.

They probably consider themselves "red-pilled" already. The blue pill is for those who want to stay in dreamland, or something.

 

[Whitestar]

Fresh study published by the U.K.’s Health Security Agency.

New U.K. Study Reinforces Conclusion That Omicron Causes Less Severe Disease

The study found people infected with the Omicron variant are between 50% to 70% less likely to be hospitalized, adding to a body of evidence of Omicron’s reduced severity in populations with high levels of Covid immunity.

www.wsj.com

No idea, I made it up.

You should probably ban yourself.

 

[MatskiMonk]

Is there a blue pill for the anti-vaxxers?

 

[UKMikey]

Is there a blue pill for the anti-vaxxers?… Just asking for a friend.

I thought Pfizer made the blue pills...

 

[05XR8]

I thought Pfizer made the blue pills...

Maaaaaannnnnn, I’m 50, but I‘m alllll gude!

 

[Jezza819]

Well the manager in our department started feeling sick about 2 this afternoon and left to go to the doc in a box and got tested. He just called me and said he is positive. I'm guessing I'm going to be under the close contact rule but I don't know yet what's going to happen next. There are 5 in our department and I don't have a lot of close contact with him as two others do.

And of course he is the person I brought up a few months ago saying the he didn't need to get vaccinated because he's younger and is never around anybody and goes to the gym a lot.

 

[Blitz24]

Well the manager in our department started feeling sick about 2 this afternoon and left to go to the doc in a box and got tested. He just called me and said he is positive. I'm guessing I'm going to be under the close contact rule but I don't know yet what's going to happen next. There are 5 in our department and I don't have a lot of close contact with him as two others do.

And of course he is the person I brought up a few months ago saying the he didn't need to get vaccinated because he's younger and is never around anybody and goes to the gym a lot.

So I'm guessing his gym is a private gym?

 

[Biggles]

Well the manager in our department started feeling sick about 2 this afternoon and left to go to the doc in a box and got tested. He just called me and said he is positive. I'm guessing I'm going to be under the close contact rule but I don't know yet what's going to happen next. There are 5 in our department and I don't have a lot of close contact with him as two others do.

And of course he is the person I brought up a few months ago saying the he didn't need to get vaccinated because he's younger and is never around anybody and goes to the gym a lot.

That's the point: if you're under "the close contact rule", how many people have you been in close contact with ... & the people they have been in close contact with. It quickly spins out of control & before you know it there are hundreds of people who should "self-isolate" based on one known recorded infection.

FWIW, my daughter arrived home from the Netherlands with a box full of antigen tests. I took a test & got negative response. I'll take another one tomorrow morning, but the theory here is that if you have symptoms you should get a PCR test & not rely on an antigen test ... but I can't get a PCR test until Dec 29th, so I don't know if it's even worth bothering. However, if I do have some kind of flu, it begs the question, how & where did I pick that up, given I've had no unmasked indoor contact with anyone for months?

 

[Spacegoat]

The Australian government has bought forward the time between the 2nd and 3rd shots to four months instead of five. With the time reducing further to three months at the end of January.

COVID booster shot intervals to be slashed in response to Omicron variant

Australians will soon only have to wait four months between their second COVID vaccine and booster, with plans to reduce the gap even further.

www.abc.net.au

This now means that I'm eligible for my booster in just under a month's time. Bring it on.

Hope everyone stays safe over the holiday period. 👍