COVID-19/Coronavirus Information and Support Thread (see OP for useful links)

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I am amazed at how the supposedly educated parts of the world is responding to this. The amount of hyperbole and panic over a damn Flu is obscene, not least given that never before have we been so well equipped to handle it. I can understand being worried if you belong to one of the groups who, if they catch it, have a high probability of suffering severe consequences, and I understand worrying for family members or friends who belong to one of said groups, but it has gone well beyond that. I am supposed to go on exchange to Japan for nearly five months in two weeks time, and now there is talk of cancelling it. What for? Both Denmark and Japan have a number of afflicted people, but even conservative estimates would put the number of infected as very low relative to the total population.

Even if containment fails, and some would probably argue that it already has, if we do catch it, most of us will have a nasty fever for a few weeks, and that'll be the end of it. Don't stop the world over this... Follow the guidelines set by the relevant authorities, and keep on keeping on.

Take comfort in the fact that you are far more likely to be injured or killed in a car accident, or to obtain any number of other horrible diseases than you are of suffering any tangible, long term harm from Corvid :)
 
I just ran some projections here in Colorado. I'm guessing I get infected in May. If we have a slower than average doubling rate (ie: longer than 5 days), it could stretch to June.
 

That doesn't explain what the expansion capacity it, just that they are way over capacity and they're adding 150 beds. If 150 is their expansion capacity then Italy is way behind the curve, at least when compared to the US. We expanded our hospital by 150 last weekend.
 
I am amazed at how the supposedly educated parts of the world is responding to this. The amount of hyperbole and panic over a damn Flu is obscene, not least given that never before have we been so well equipped to handle it. I can understand being worried if you belong to one of the groups who, if they catch it, have a high probability of suffering severe consequences, and I understand worrying for family members or friends who belong to one of said groups, but it has gone well beyond that. I am supposed to go on exchange to Japan for nearly five months in two weeks time, and now there is talk of cancelling it. What for? Both Denmark and Japan have a number of afflicted people, but even conservative estimates would put the number of infected as very low relative to the total population.

Even if containment fails, and some would probably argue that it already has, if we do catch it, most of us will have a nasty fever for a few weeks, and that'll be the end of it. Don't stop the world over this... Follow the guidelines set by the relevant authorities, and keep on keeping on.

Take comfort in the fact that you are far more likely to be injured or killed in a car accident, or to obtain any number of other horrible diseases than you are of suffering any tangible, long term harm from Corvid :)

You'd have a point if this was just "a damn flu". The fact that you can go several days or more than a week without symptoms AND during that time you could be infecting people who might die, makes this a very different situation.

With the normal flu, you can get a vaccine. With this, you can't. Neither can the people you might infect.

Your mindset not only comes off as unreasonable but also selfish. Sure, you might not care about getting infected and spend a few weeks with fever (even if the chances of dying are 1/1000), but maybe the people who breathe the same air as you or are in contact with you care.
 
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@Joey D
Lombardy’s top health official, Giulio Gallera, told Bloomberg that the region had dedicated 80% of its 1,123 acute-care beds to coronavirus. But Pesenti said that according to some forecasts, Lombardy could have 18,000 hospitalized coronavirus patients by March 26, between 2,700 and 3,200 of whom would require acute care.
Gallera said that health officials were in a “race against time” to find more acute care beds, with about 150 more due to open in the next week. Whether this was enough to respond to the crisis would depend on the effectiveness of the government’s drastic containment measures.

I think that quote from the linked article gives you the closest numbers.
 
I definitely think we could have rolled out quarantine facilities at this point where we take a fraction of necessary people from healthcare, police, fire, and other infrastructure areas and expose them and quarantine them until they're safe to release. Based on our current doubling rate here in CO, we could pull off several rounds of that before the big waves come.
 
You'd have a point if this was just "a damn flu"

It's certainly an Influenza-like virus though and without a vaccine, we'd probably see something similar to this every year with Influenza A and B. It doesn't make it less serious to think of it like this because Influenza is a rather serious virus for a certain part of the population.

I'm told that I can't compare the US health system to any European one, so I'm not sure why we're allowed to now.

Because the post I quoted did and I was asking the question for clarification.
 
You'd have a point if this was just "a damn flu". The fact that you can go several days or more than a week without symptoms AND during that time you could be infected people who might die, makes this a very different.

With the normal flu, you can get a vaccine. With this, you can't. Neither can the people you might infect.

Your mindset not only comes off as unreasonable but also selfish. Sure, you might not care about getting infected and spend a few weeks with fever (even if the chances of dying are 1/1000), but maybe the people who breathe the same air as you or are in contact with you care.

First of, it's likely just a matter of time before a vaccine is made. Second, people die. It's part of life. Like it or not, diseases too, are part of life. Always have been, and always will be. You can chalk it up to a fatalistic view if you want, but I see little logic in attempting to outright prevent the inevitable. Should we fight it via modern medicine? Yes. Should we adopt basic measures, such as increased focus on hygiene? Sure. But stopping our lives on account of the low chance that you might infect someone with a disease you likely do not have, is absurd to me. It's a disproportionate response to the current situation. I don't plan on hanging around elderly or sick people in Japan. I plan to study and spend my times out in the wild. I'm no more likely to infect someone in Japan that I would be hanging about in Denmark. Or are you suggesting that everyone stay at home?
 
First of, it's likely just a matter of time before a vaccine is made.

Thankfully, a vaccine has already been developed. Unfortunately, these things take a long time to past human testing and ensure it's safe. My guess is Europe will get it before the US since the FDA loves to drag its feet on everything. I believe several pharmaceutical companies are working on anti-virals to treat the virus as well.

The wild card here is the mutation rate. If the virus mutates as Influenza does, a vaccine might take even longer and the anti-virals might now work. It's hard to tell right now, but since there's a bunch of money that stands to be made by these pharmaceutical companies, they're busting ass to be the first one to the market.
 
You'd have a point if this was just "a damn flu". The fact that you can go several days or more than a week without symptoms AND during that time you could be infecting people who might die, makes this a very different situation.

With the normal flu, you can get a vaccine. With this, you can't. Neither can the people you might infect.

Your mindset not only comes off as unreasonable but also selfish. Sure, you might not care about getting infected and spend a few weeks with fever (even if the chances of dying are 1/1000), but maybe the people who breathe the same air as you or are in contact with you care.
A vaccine exists for the flu and yet every year thousands still die. Your tone as the vaccine being an end-all-be-all is a bit absurd considering how most virus’s are treated.
 
A vaccine exists for the flu and yet every year thousands still die. Your tone as the vaccine being an end-all-be-all is a bit absurd considering how most virus’s are treated.

Second, people die. It's part of life. Like it or not, diseases too, are part of life. Always have been, and always will be.

I don't feel like that's what's being said.
 
Why is Italy so much worse than everywhere else right now? I haven't seen anything remotely educated as to a reason why.

All the most affected countries in Europe are the ones with the highest population and highest levels of tourism (except Russia which curtailed travel to and from China pretty much straight away). France, Spain, Germany and Italy all have over 1000 cases recorded, and I think the main reason the UK's cases are comparatively lower is that being an island and being outside the Schengen area severely limits the amount of cars and trains you have coming in and out of the country. With regards to Italy, it may have just reached there first through tourists and the authorities didn't notice at first, but something I have observed from travelling there myself is there is definitely a culture of kissing each other on the cheek (across both sexes) when greeting one another, which alone is far more friendly to viruses than hand shaking is.
 
I am amazed at how the supposedly educated parts of the world is responding to this.

Educated or not, the Chinese (and Italian) response to this makes me think there's more to worry about than simply catching a cold, and they're not doing it because they got spooked by social media.
 
I don't feel like that's what's being said.
How so? People show the same ignorance, myself included, to not get a flu shot because of either adverse side-effects or failure to be the proper strand. Yet millions of flights aren’t cancelled and cities aren’t being shutdown.

And you’re saying that this can’t at all be relatable to the flu and it’s not being overblown?
 
Educated or not, the Chinese (and Italian) response to this makes me think there's more to worry about than simply catching a cold, and they're not doing it because they got spooked by social media.

If it spreads to your entire country, that means no revenue from tourism, and a potential massive deficit in trade. It also means people not working for 1-3 weeks owing to be sick, which leads to further economic loss. Surely there's nothing surprising in governments wanting to curb such developments?
 
The whole article just shows how awful America's response to this has been

They really need to hand over testings to state health departments and private labs.

All the most affected countries in Europe are the ones with the highest population and highest levels of tourism (except Russia which curtailed travel to and from China pretty much straight away). France, Spain, Germany and Italy all have over 1000 cases recorded, and I think the main reason the UK's cases are comparatively lower is that being an island and being outside the Schengen area severely limits the amount of cars and trains you have coming in and out of the country. With regards to Italy, it may have just reached there first through tourists and the authorities didn't notice at first, but something I have observed from travelling there myself is there is definitely a culture of kissing each other on the cheek (across both sexes) when greeting one another, which alone is far more friendly to viruses than hand shaking is.

Thanks, this is the sort of thing I was looking for. I didn't think about the cultural thing with kissing.
 
How so? People show the same ignorance, myself included, to not get a flu shot because of either adverse side-effects or failure to be the proper strand. Yet millions of flights aren’t cancelled and cities aren’t being shutdown.

And you’re saying that this can’t at all be relatable to the flu and it’s not being overblown?

I didn't think he was suggesting that a vaccine is an end-all be-all.
 
First of, it's likely just a matter of time before a vaccine is made. Second, people die. It's part of life. Like it or not, diseases too, are part of life. Always have been, and always will be. You can chalk it up to a fatalistic view if you want, but I see little logic in attempting to outright prevent the inevitable. Should we fight it via modern medicine? Yes. Should we adopt basic measures, such as increased focus on hygiene? Sure. But stopping our lives on account of the low chance that you might infect someone with a disease you likely do not have, is absurd to me. It's a disproportionate response to the current situation. I don't plan on hanging around elderly or sick people in Japan. I plan to study and spend my times out in the wild. I'm no more likely to infect someone in Japan that I would be hanging about in Denmark. Or are you suggesting that everyone stay at home?

I'm suggesting that maybe your idea that it's just a damn flu is a bit short-sighted. This kills 20x more than the flu. Yeah, it kills more old people and people with other chronic deseases. But they're people too. They're our parents and grand parents. Unless you live on an island and don't care about older people, I don't get why you'd be so dismissive of other people's concerns.

Have you thought about the possibility that whatever institution you're going to Japan to study at might close soon? Or you're so desperate to go (and I can understand that if that's something you've been planning for a while) that you're willing to ignore what's happening?

The places where the virus seem to be more in control are South Korea, where millions of people are not leaving their homes, or China. But with China we don't really know what's true and what's not.

Italy is immersed and will be immersed in chaos for a while, and other countries might follow if they don't approach the outbreak differently.

If you keep living your normal life as nothing is happening around you, because "people will die", try to imagine if everyone thought and did the same. Would you consider that a good decision? I bet the doctors and nurses who are and who will be risking their lifes in the hospitals wouldn't find it very smart, to say the least.

A vaccine exists for the flu and yet every year thousands still die. Your tone as the vaccine being an end-all-be-all is a bit absurd considering how most virus’s are treated.

This kills 20x more.

A vaccine for Covid19 that worked as well as the vaccine for the normal flu (~50% success rate iirc) would be a major step. My main point was not about the vaccine, as Danoff pointed out.
 
Yup, first case confirmed at a school within the town I live in, child had isolated for 2 weeks after being in contact with someone who'd already got the virus.

Best buy 50 packets of bog roll and some pasta.
 
UK minister's staffer has coronavirus
She didn't name the staff member, but according to the parliamentary register of MPs' staff she employs three people - one of whom is her daughter.
This morning Ms Dorries posted in a WhatsApp group of Tory MPs that if any of them had sat next to her last week in the "tea room or library etc", to please let her know, because it was "hard to remember" everyone she had come into contact with.

This afternoon she told the BBC: "Contact tracers have full list of everyone I have been in contact with."

hmmmm
 
I'm suggesting that maybe your idea that it's just a damn flu is a bit short-sighted. This kills 20x more than the flu. Yeah, it kills more old people and people with other chronic deseases. But they're people too. They're our parents and grand parents. Unless you live on an island and don't care about older people, I don't get why you'd be so dismissive of other people's concerns.

Have you thought about the possibility that whatever institution you're going to Japan to study at might close soon? Or you're so desperate to go (and I can understand that if that's something you've been planning for a while) that you're willing to ignore what's happening?

The places where the virus seem to be more in control are South Korea, where millions of people are not leaving their homes, or China. But with China we don't really know what's true and what's not.

Italy is immersed and will be immersed in chaos for a while, and other countries might follow if they don't approach the outbreak differently.

If you keep living your normal life as nothing is happening around you, because "people will die", try to imagine if everyone thought and did the same. Would you consider that a good decision? I bet the doctors and nurses who are and who will be risking their lifes in the hospitals wouldn't find it very smart, to say the least.

I'm not dismissive of their concerns. As I said, I understand why people in the demographics most at risk, or who have relatives or otherwise who are at risk, are concerned. But I do not support shutting down countries on that account when the number of cases are so relatively low, even if assuming the more conservative estimates. I've also already made clear that, while life goes on, everyone ought to adhere to the guidelines established by the relevant authorities, such as the CDC or similar. If you truly believe that the current situation is enough to warrant what amounts to Marshall Law, then I respectfully suggest that you have been carried away by the excessive and sensationalist news coverage of the issue at hand.

When you compare the reported numbers of deaths and infected to the total population of any one nation, then the numbers simply aren't that high. When you compare the fatalities to those of "ordinary" causes, such as car accidents, then Corvid does seem rather trivial. The WHO estimates that on average, more than 3000 people die on a daily basis from car accidents. That's not counting those who suffer complications from inhaling exhaust gases on a daily basis in our congested cities, or the injuries that don't result in death. In well over three months, there have "only" been about 4000 deaths from Corvid.

If the number of afflicted were higher, and correspondingly, the risks of any one individual infecting people before they even knew they were infected, then I could perhaps get behind a short term stay indoors policy. But thus far, in spite of what the news headlines suggests, the overall numbers are low. I'm by no means particularly knowledgeable about viruses are how they transmit, but I presume that the numbers can be kept low by using some common sense and again, following the hygienic advice stipulated by the relevant authorities. If such relatively low fatalities are enough to warrant a shutting down of society, then I wonder how or why people ignore the number of other diseases, or otherwise harmful effects, that they expose themselves to on a daily basis, be it car emissions (or the chance of crashing), industry emissions, smoking, alcohol consumption and fat foods. The list goes on and they kill far more people.

If we stop living every time the slightest risk presents itself, then we'll never get to live. lastly, I would also suggest that the people who are most at risk ought themselves to take extra steps to avoid catching it, rather than expect all of society to simply stop.
 
@Jawehawk I didn't suggest people should go into quarantine right now. Or that they should stock pile and prepare for the apocolaypse. Following the advice of health authorities is pretty much all we can do.




Listen a couple of minutes starting from 30:41.

Very optimist predictions, given what we know atm, point to 60million people infected in the USA and 300.000 dead from this virus. That's considering a low 20% of population get infected and a very optimistic 0.5% death rate.

Numbers could go up to 60% infected and close to 2.000.000 dead with 1% death rate. In the USA alone.

ATM the death rate is between 1 and 2%, so things could be even worse.

I don't get the comparison with car crashes. Next thing we're talking about people who die of hunger and thirst. Seriously? This virus is something on top of all the other causes of death we have already. The chances of dying are higher if you have more things that can kill you. They're not mutually exclusive.

The number of infected people will get higher btw.
 
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People who are dismissing this as nothing worse than the flu are dangerously misguided.

The problem is not just the relative danger of the virus itself - it's the likelihood of a vast number of people requiring hospital care that is simply not going to be available. The more people who get infected, the bigger the multiplier effect of casualties caused by global healthcare systems being simply overwhelmed - not to mention the problem of what happens if/when medical professionals and volunteers fall ill themselves. This also means that people who need urgent hospital care for everything are less likely to get the care they need - this pandemic will also very likely create a massive global healthcare problem that endangers people who are not even infected.
 
Don't know if it was shared already here but seems like an important insight into what's happening in Italy.

Coronavirus: 'Stop saying it's a bad flu' - Doctor fighting Italy outbreak shares dramatic account


"After much thought about whether and what to write about what is happening to us, I felt that silence was not responsible.

I will therefore try to convey to people far from our reality what we are living in Bergamo in these days of Covid-19 pandemic. I understand the need not to create panic, but when the message of the dangerousness of what is happening does not reach people I shudder.

I myself watched with some amazement the reorganization of the entire hospital in the past week, when our current enemy was still in the shadows: the wards slowly 'emptied', elective activities were interrupted, intensive care were freed up to create as many beds as possible.

All this rapid transformation brought an atmosphere of silence and surreal emptiness to the corridors of the hospital that we did not yet understand, waiting for a war that was yet to begin and that many (including me) were not so sure would ever come with such ferocity.

I still remember my night call a week ago when I was waiting for the results of a swab. When I think about it, my anxiety over one possible case seems almost ridiculous and unjustified, now that I've seen what's happening. Well, the situation now is dramatic to say the least.

The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. But now that need for beds has arrived in all its drama. One after the other the departments that had been emptied fill up at an impressive pace.

The boards with the names of the patients, of different colours depending on the operating unit, are now all red and instead of surgery you see the diagnosis, which is always the damned same: bilateral interstitial pneumonia.

Now, explain to me which flu virus causes such a rapid drama. [post continues comparing Covid19 to flu, link here]. And while there are still people who boast of not being afraid by ignoring directions, protesting because their normal routine is 'temporarily' put in crisis, the epidemiological disaster is taking place. And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us.

Cases are multiplying, we arrive at a rate of 15-20 admissions per day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the E.R. is collapsing.

Reasons for the access always the same: fever and breathing difficulties, fever and cough, respiratory failure. Radiology reports always the same: bilateral interstitial pneumonia, bilateral interstitial pneumonia, bilateral interstitial pneumonia. All to be hospitalized.

Someone already to be intubated and go to intensive care. For others it's too late... Every ventilator becomes like gold: those in operating theatres that have now suspended their non-urgent activity become intensive care places that did not exist before.

The staff is exhausted. I saw the tiredness on faces that didn't know what it was despite the already exhausting workloads they had. I saw a solidarity of all of us, who never failed to go to our internist colleagues to ask, 'What can I do for you now?'

Doctors who move beds and transfer patients, who administer therapies instead of nurses. Nurses with tears in their eyes because we can't save everyone, and the vital parameters of several patients at the same time reveal an already marked destiny.

There are no more shifts, no more hours. Social life is suspended for us. We no longer see our families for fear of infecting them. Some of us have already become infected despite the protocols.

Some of our colleagues who are infected also have infected relatives and some of their relatives are already struggling between life and death. So be patient, you can't go to the theatre, museums or the gym. Try to have pity on the myriad of old people you could exterminate.

We just try to make ourselves useful. You should do the same: we influence the life and death of a few dozen people. You with yours, many more. Please share this message. We must spread the word to prevent what is happening here from happening all over Italy.

I finish by saying that I really don't understand this war on panic. The only reason I see is mask shortages, but there's no mask on sale anymore. We don't have a lot of studies, but is it panic really worse than neglect and carelessness during an epidemic of this sort?"


We're the same as Italians.
 
One comparative statistic stands out to me:

South Korea - 7,755 cases, 54 deaths

Italy - 10,149 cases, 631 deaths

What's the explanation for that?
 
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