COVID-19/Coronavirus Information and Support Thread (see OP for useful links)

[Dotini]

106 dead now with ~4,500 infected

Logarithm plot of confirmed cases and deaths indicates the epidemic is in an exponential phase.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019–20_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak







HEALTH
Containing new coronavirus may not be feasible, experts say, as they warn of possible sustained global spread
By HELEN BRANSWELL @HelenBranswell
https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/26/containing-new-coronavirus-may-not-be-feasible-experts-say/

Some infectious disease experts are warning that it may no longer be feasible to contain the new coronavirus circulating in China. Failure to stop it there could see the virus spread in a sustained way around the world and even perhaps join the ranks of respiratory viruses that regularly infect people.

“The more we learn about it, the greater the possibility is that transmission will not be able to be controlled with public health measures,” said Dr. Allison McGeer, a Toronto-based infectious disease specialist who contracted SARS in 2003 and who helped Saudi Arabia control several hospital-based outbreaks of MERS.

If that’s the case, she said, “we’re living with a new human virus, and we’re going to find out if it will spread around the globe.” McGeer cautioned that because the true severity of the outbreak isn’t yet known, it’s impossible to predict what the impact of that spread would be, though she noted it would likely pose significant challenges to health care facilities.

“Despite the enormous and admirable efforts in China and around the world, we need to plan for the possibility containment of this epidemic isn’t possible,” said Neil Ferguson, an infectious diseases epidemiology at Imperial College London who has issued a series of modeling studies on the outbreak.

There may be as many as 100,000 cases already in China, Ferguson told The Guardian newspaper on Sunday, adding the model suggests the number could be between 30,000 and 200,000 cases. “Almost certainly many tens of thousands of people are infected,” he told the British newspaper.

Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, suggested the estimates are sobering and point to continued spread.

“If it’s not contained shortly, I think we are looking at a pandemic,” Bedford said, though he cautioned that it’s impossible to know at this point how severe that type of event would be.

Dr. Tom Inglesby, director of the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, urged countries to start planning to deal with global spread of the new virus. Such plans need to include far more aggressive efforts to develop a vaccine than have already been announced, he suggested.

“I’m not making a prediction that it’s going to happen,” Inglesby said, though he noted the mathematical modeling, the statements from Chinese authorities, and the sharply rising infection numbers make a case for this possible outcome. “I think just based on those pieces of limited information, it’s important for us to begin some planning around the possibility that this won’t be contained.”

 

[Whitestar]

Heard on the radio from a woman in Doctors Without Borders that they don't know exactly how many are infected, because the symptoms are those of a common cold. And many people may have had the virus but not bothered to seek medical help since they thought it just was a common cold, and some may even have been infected without having symptoms at all.

Also, it apparently can stay in the body for up to 14 days without symptoms showing, making it harder to estimate how many are indeed infected.

"Exactly how dangerous it is we don't really know; it might be that those who die are people who are sick from before or have a weak/reduced immune system."

To me it sounded a bit like she wanted to say that it doesn't appear to be a lot worse than a bad flu. But she can't say that yet because there are so many unknowns at the moment.

 

[Dotini]

Right now it would seem that somewhat strangely only China is being badly affected, with zero person-to-person transmissions and zero deaths elsewhere in the world. So it cannot be designated as a pandemic. But it may be inevitable this is going to change in coming days or weeks. Of particular concern to me are clusters reported - not yet in the MSM - on both coasts of Canada. Unofficially reported cases in China exceed 150k.

 

[Famine]

What's with the dramatic shift into meme-lordery, @Dotini?

 

[Dotini]

What's with the dramatic shift into meme-lordery, @Dotini?

To be honest, I noticed that folks who posted funny memes seem to get more likes, and that funny memes seem to take any worrisome edge off the data contained in the post by introducing a note of humor, normality and levity, As an old fuddy-duddy, it's about time I put a toe into the 21st Century.

 

[PeterJB]

Ok boomer

 

[Famine]

To be honest, I noticed that folks who posted funny memes seem to get more likes, and that funny memes seem to take any worrisome edge off the data contained in the post by introducing a note of humor, normality and levity, As an old fuddy-duddy, it's about time I put a toe into the 21st Century.

People who talk sense get more likes - but likes themselves aren't an indicator of the intrinsic value of a post (or member). Trying to force a weak meme into every post looks like this:

 

[Dotini]

People who talk sense get more likes - but likes themselves aren't an indicator of the intrinsic value of a post (or member). Trying to force a weak meme into every post looks like this:

View attachment 885540

Thank you for your hints and suggestions. I'm always interested in improvements to my posts and to my intrinsic value as a member.

 

[Touring Mars]

A touch of paranoia perhaps, but a girl who shares my office came back from her holiday in South East Asia today with flu-like symptoms, and yet she still came to work - and into an office of 15 people

Now, I know there is a miniscule chance that she has the dreaded new coronavirus, but it still winds me up immensely when people come into work when they are obviously sick. There’s even a new term for it - “presentee-ism”... people who come into work and cause others to get sick are just as bad, if not worse, than people who don’t come in when they could.

Anyway, as a precaution, I have decided to work the rest of the day at home.

 

[Dotini]

A touch of paranoia perhaps, but a girl who shares my office came back from her holiday in South East Asia today with flu-like symptoms, and yet she still came to work - and into an office of 15 people

Now, I know there is a miniscule chance that she has the dreaded new coronavirus, but it still winds me up immensely when people come into work when they are obviously sick. There’s even a new term for it - “presentee-ism”... people who come into work and cause others to get sick are just as bad, if not worse, than people who don’t come in when they could.

Anyway, as a precaution, I have decided to work the rest of the day at home.

Was the individual with flu-like symptoms wearing a mask? It is reported that wearing a mask may help prevent the spread of disease from an affected individual. Are such masks at all in common use in the UK?

 

[Touring Mars]

No, she wasn’t - and no, masks are not common in the UK...

That said, I spotted three Chinese students with masks on on my way to work this morning.

It should be noted that only certain types of mask are effective at blocking airborne viruses such as flu, as some cheaper/flimsier masks only offer limited protection, and can even be counterproductive (if, for example, they get damp through usage).

 

[Dotini]

No, she wasn’t - and no, masks are not common in the UK...

That said, I spotted three Chinese students with masks on on my way to work this morning.

It should be noted that only certain types of mask are effective at blocking airborne viruses such as flu, as some cheaper/flimsier masks only offer limited protection, and can even be counterproductive (if, for example, they get damp through usage).

Yes, the N95 rated mask is said to be more effective, but it has the disadvantage of taking much more effort to breathe through. And I guess guys with beards needn't bother even trying due to leaks. I have seen reports of shortages or delays in the availability of these masks, not just in China but in domestic orders online, etc. I purchased (3) N95 masks yesterday morning at my local hardware store - the last ones on the shelf.

 

[baldgye]

That said, I spotted three Chinese students with masks on on my way to work this morning.

I struggle to get through a regular day when I'm out during sociable hours where I don't see an Asian person wearing a mask.

 

[Dotini]

I struggle to get through a regular day when I'm out during sociable hours where I don't see an Asian person wearing a mask.

Do these Asians know something you don't? Do you feel the wearing of a mask in your area is socially unacceptable, an attempt to avoid recognition, or fear mongering? Are there etiquettes, regulations or protocols governing such measures? Should/could there be?

 

[baldgye]

Do these Asians know something you don't? Do you feel the wearing of a mask in your area is socially unacceptable, an attempt to avoid recognition, or fear mongering? Are there etiquettes, regulations or protocols governing such measures? Should/could there be?

My understanding is that its common social etiquette in some Asian countries, that when you have a cold or something similar, you wear a mask. But no, I don't think the government needs to step in and enforce the use of masks and I don't know why people would have an issue with it...

 

[Danoff]

@Dotini

My understanding is that its common social etiquette in some Asian countries, that when you have a cold or something similar, you wear a mask. But no, I don't think the government needs to step in and enforce the use of masks and I don't know why people would have an issue with it...

It's often for smog (and it's definitely prudent).

 

[Touring Mars]

It’s also (far) more common in big cities than elsewhere due to pollution...

But yes, I’ve also noticed many more Asians wearing face-masks prior to this outbreak - I guess it is also a cultural thing.

That said, there is definitely anxiety about coronavirus now thrown into the mix here too. I know of at least two people who were due to attend Chinese NY parties at the weekend in Glasgow but both were cancelled.

 

[Dotini]

My understanding is that its common social etiquette in some Asian countries, that when you have a cold or something similar, you wear a mask. But no, I don't think the government needs to step in and enforce the use of masks and I don't know why people would have an issue with it...

Wouldn't the routine wearing of masks defeat facial recognition cameras? Would such individuals be welcome in banks or jewelry stores?

 

[baldgye]

Wouldn't the routine wearing of masks defeat facial recognition cameras? Would such individuals be welcome in banks or jewelry stores?

I don't live in China and the UK (despite the met's best efforts) dosnt have widespread deployment of facial recognition cameras, so I don't know. However, I've seen Asian people in banks and jewellers with face masks (just like I've seen Muslim women in full hijabs) and there has been no drama or issue....

 

[Danoff]

It’s also (far) more common in big cities than elsewhere due to pollution...

I felt stupid in Beijing not wearing one. I brought one even, but couldn't bring myself to wear it (because stupid culture reasons). Probably shaved a month off my lifespan by inhaling all that crap.

Wouldn't the routine wearing of masks defeat facial recognition cameras? Would such individuals be welcome in banks or jewelry stores?

In China they do it all over the place, and nobody is unwelcome for it. They even have cool stylish ones:

 

[Touring Mars]

 

[Dotini]

In China they do it all over the place, and nobody is unwelcome for it. They even have cool stylish ones:

In Seattle, it is typical for banks to have signs at the entrance alerting that wearing caps or hats is prohibited.

@Touring Mars
I ran across that meme in my short-lived quest for funny coronavirus memes. We should probably limit such things, as we would arouse the ire of @Famine.

 

[Touring Mars]

The difference, I think, is that you were posting memes that had already been posted, apparently to make your posts more likable... the picture I posted above is not a meme and is a direct response to the conversation.

 

[Dotini]

I just watched an interview on CNBC with Ron Klain, former Obama admin Ebola czar and Biden chief of staff. FWIW, by my memory, he said the following:

- There are likely several hundred thousand infections already in China.
- WHO should have declared it a global pandemic several days ago.
- Breakouts in the US are inevitable.
- The US is not and will not shut down to and from flights between the US and China. (He may already be wrong on this one)
- Local and regional hospitals are not well equipped to stop the disease from spreading.
- By his plan set up in the previous administration, the US response will be at 60 strategically located hospitals with special facilities, etc, located around the US.

Edit:
In a subsequent statement of US HHS Sec'y Azar - a former pharma lobbyist in regular contact with Pres. Trump - says "all options are on the table" with respect to travel restrictions.

 

[Carbonox]

Chinese gov't continue to be snowflakes who would like satire to be restricted even outside of their own borders.

 

[baldgye]

Coronavirus: Japan and Germany confirm patients who caught disease did not visit China
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-china-japan-latest-outbreak-bus-driver-wuhan-death-toll-a9305406.html


Slightly concerning

 

[Dotini]

Coronavirus: Japan and Germany confirm patients who caught disease did not visit China
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-china-japan-latest-outbreak-bus-driver-wuhan-death-toll-a9305406.html


Slightly concerning

It is, not least because WHO now technically has the grounds to declare the outbreak to be global pandemic, dramatically elevating the concern, attention and policy adjustment required for the rest of the world.

I have been switching back and forth between cable TV business channels all day long. Not even one of the anchors believes the official number of announced infections. They all manage to convey the idea it is 1 or 2 orders of magnitudes higher.

Edit:
First coronavirus death in India?
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...oman-dies-in-kolkata/articleshow/73683758.cms

 

[Tappajakoala]

Just on news that Chinese tourist from Wuhan has confirmed coronavirus infection at Rovaniemi hospital, Finland. Plausible 15 people infected.

 

[Dotini]

Latest official numbers: 7783 confirmed cases, 170 dead, 133 recovered.

Chart below from yesterday.

 

[TheCracker]

It’s also (far) more common in big cities than elsewhere due to pollution...

But yes, I’ve also noticed many more Asians wearing face-masks prior to this outbreak - I guess it is also a cultural thing.

That said, there is definitely anxiety about coronavirus now thrown into the mix here too. I know of at least two people who were due to attend Chinese NY parties at the weekend in Glasgow but both were cancelled.

We have a large Chinese student population in Sheffield, somewhere in the region of 4000, i pass the university on my way to and from work and i've noticed a massive increase in mask wearing from the Chinese students (which is a good thing all round given its a time of year when many will have been visiting home or had friends or family visiting here), even with mask wearing being a fairly common sight anyway.