Why did it go up dramatically?
Looking at past trends the fact that a new console has a new graphics showcase feature is hardly a revelation, and certainly not an indication that PD would be able to have a product ready to support it for launch. The PS2, PS3 and PS4 all pushed graphics in a new direction in one way or another, yet PD singularly failed to release a launch title for any of these.
Nor does the use of PD in terms of tech demo mean anything, we have had tech demos from them before that have not panned out to mean launch releases, hell we have even had actually named titles promised for launch that never saw the light of day, GT2000 was supposed to be a launch title for the PS2 after being used as a graphics showcase, ditto with the original GTHD and the PS3. A tech demo and a new graphics feature on a new console are not an accurate indicator that PD will make a launch window. That's also putting aside that even being generous, PD and release dates are not exactly great bedfellows.
Personally, if I were to put my money on any studio being used to both hit a launch window and be able to showcase new graphics features it would be Guerilla Games, with Naughty Dog a second. They both have a better track record of hitting release dates for software, both are known for outstanding graphics and pushing systems early on and the former has released with a new console before.