Gran Turismo 7 Update 1.54 Prediction & Discussion Thread

[Famine]

Just for fun, here's some stats:

Mean number of cars: 3.8
Median/mode number of cars: 3

Mean number of

• Road Cars: 2.8
• Race Cars: 0.8
• Tuned Cars: 0.2

• Asia Cars: 1.7
• Europe Cars: 1.6
• USA Cars: 0.5

• Brand Central Cars: 2.3
• Used (only) Cars: 0.7
• Legends Cars: 0.8

• All-New Cars: 2.5
• Returning Cars: 1.2

("returning" includes cars which were present in slightly different specifications/years previously; "brand central" includes any cars available there whether also available used or not)

So, we could expect that our next content update has four cars. They're likely to be three road cars and one race car, probably two each from Asia/Europe (though we've never gone four updates without a US car, and this would be the fourth), with two in Brand Central and one each in Used and Legends, with either three newcomers and one returnee or two and two.

Taking into account that, the nature of recent additions filling in gaps in generations, the propensity for pulling from the first few pages of the GTP Suggestions forum, the good ol' car data lists from waaaay back, and left-field unexpected stuff that they like to pull out from time to time, my predictions would be:

BMW i8 - Road, Europe, Brand Central, New
Ford Mustang Cobra R '00 - Road, USA, Used, Returning
Mazda Roadster (NC) - Road, Asia, Brand Central, Returning
Nissan R390 GT1 LM - Race, Asia, Legends, Returning


Or maybe that awful-looking Countach LPI800 instead of the i8, as we have had two other Lamborghinis recently. Alternatively, some recent Porsche as it's been a while since we had one and they used to be every other update, pre-2024.

 

[snc]

Apparenlty round 4 nations is sports softs standing starts so it looks like new mazda roadster comming

 

[wagnerFAM98]

Mazda Roadster (NB) - Road, Asia, Used, Returning

Ah the NB, my favorite and most anticipated Mazda Roadster to appear in GT7. Don't want to sound pessimistic, but on the prediction side, unfortunately my senses are telling me Polyphony will do anything (NC, ND RF, NA J-Limited) before properly adding the NB. I just hope I'm dead wrong.

 

[newmedia_dev]

I have nothing against the Mazda being predicted but personally I'd prefer something that is new and not a variant in the game.

Nothing against people wanting more of the cars they love just find that we get a lot of variant depth for some cars and completely new to the game cars don't get included when they potentially broaden the diversity choice.

It's the same with the GTRs etc all great cars but who wouldn't love an RS4/6 or a Legacy or Stagea etc

 

[Famine]

I have nothing against the Mazda being predicted but personally I'd prefer something that is new and not a variant in the game.

Nothing against people wanting more of the cars they love

It's not about want or love, but about predicting what PD is going to do. Wants, loves, likes, preferences all go in the Wishlist thread and/or Suggestions forum; this thread is about predictions.

The chances of any of my predictions coming true are... not very, but given that we have NA (x2) and ND (x2) and PD has been filling in gaps in other model ranges recently (M3, TT, Lancer Evo) it seems more likely than not that the NB - which was in previous games, and is on the datamine list (which is at worst leftover vestigial data) - will be on someone's to-do list and make it into the game eventually.

This update? I doubt it, but it also wouldn't surprise me.

 

[Nebuc72]

If they use what I'm suspecting they'll use for Round 4, we're in for an absolute treat.

 

[hawkeyez]

I have nothing against the Mazda being predicted but personally I'd prefer something that is new and not a variant in the game.

Nothing against people wanting more of the cars they love just find that we get a lot of variant depth for some cars and completely new to the game cars don't get included when they potentially broaden the diversity choice.

It's the same with the GTRs etc all great cars but who wouldn't love an RS4/6 or a Legacy or Stagea etc

I’m with you on that. Thing is we get all these variants but no variants of the 69 Camaro? I’d rather no variants. I sold all my Honda civics.

 

[Obelisk]

NC

The Mk.3 MX5 isn't currently in GT7, though? I know the NC1 is referenced in the old datamine but I haven't seen it in game. I would've been all over it if it was in game.

 

[Famine]

The Mk.3 MX5 isn't currently in GT7, though? I know the NC1 is referenced in the old datamine but I haven't seen it in game. I would've been all over it if it was in game.

Actually, no. It's two NAs and two NDs, isn't it?

Hmm. The NC is new enough to be a BC car too...

 

[Obelisk]

Actually, no. It's two NAs and two NDs, isn't it?

Hmm. The NC is new enough to be a BC car too...

Yup. NA '89, NA TC, ND Roadster and ND NR-A.

I've been quietly predicting the NC on basically every update since the datamine came out, but I think that falls more under wishlisting than actual prediction.

 

[Famine]

Yup. NA '89, NA TC, ND Roadster and ND NR-A.

I've been quietly predicting the NC on basically every update since the datamine came out, but I think that falls more under wishlisting than actual prediction.

I like a late-NC as a prediction rather than the NB as it fills up a BC spot, so I can remove the Fiesta which is... pretty unlikely and replace it with an "American" classic-but-mainsteam-enough-to-be-used. Escort Cossie is high on our Suggestions/Cars list but not super-probable at this point, so maybe the return of the Mustang Cobra R '00?

Edit: Actually the NC would be a GT5/6 returnee so that's three returns to one new... Hmm.

 

[jrbabbitt]

if you play on controller it definitely is not, the daily race at the Nurburgring this week exposes the issues with the car losing steering mid corner especially in the carousel's. It's been broke for 3 months, fingers crossed they finally fix it

I have been controller since day one, I have been doing the Race C every night I get home from work and I have not seen nor experienced this loss of steering in the carousel nor any other speed intensive curve. I am not a rookie nor an exceptional driver but I consider myself to be good with a high C rating. Maybe it's how I drive, maybe it's not. I pick and choose when I do the Daily races as to when the races are on the tracks I know well and I do know the Nurb well.

 

[Kriptical]

Cars and tracks would be nice but the main thing GT7 needs at the moment is a fix for the physics they broke in the July update. If you play on wheel it's probably fine, if you play on controller it definitely is not, the daily race at the Nurburgring this week exposes the issues with the car losing steering mid corner especially in the carousel's. It's been broke for 3 months, fingers crossed they finally fix it 🙏

Wheels are not fine. Just bandaid/muted

 

[GOTMAXPOWER]

I have been controller since day one, I have been doing the Race C every night I get home from work and I have not seen nor experienced this loss of steering in the carousel nor any other speed intensive curve. I am not a rookie nor an exceptional driver but I consider myself to be good with a high C rating. Maybe it's how I drive, maybe it's not. I pick and choose when I do the Daily races as to when the races are on the tracks I know well and I do know the Nurb well.

I did see a comment on Discord earlier from one of the fastest pad players in the world that they're having similar issues to me in mid engine cars in those 2 corners but front engine cars are a lot better, I'll have to try out some on the weekend. I've been meaning to try the AMG since the July update anyway so fingers crossed it works better than the Huracan/R8.

 

[newmedia_dev]

Wheels are not fine. Just bandaid/muted

@GOTMAXPOWER

As kriptical said as 100% wheel user things aren't good either

1: having to change feedback torque per car is annoying as hell. Go to do QT and either it's so over weighted you can barely move the wheel to it's so light and the dead zone is massive which makes anything precise impossible.

2: mid corner the steering just gives up for a second you are literally holding a wheel and the torque disappears for a second, it's like using a wii mote at this point.

3: the FFB just doesn't bother to show up occasionally I assume it's on strike but why the whole pause at the start thing is what people do now on wheels

4: pedal calibration resets to essentially mimic button presses (not even trigger smoothness)

5: and this is my favourite one is the oscillation, driving down a straight with nothing more than a gentle grip and the wheel will start to pendulum but the torque increase ramps up quickly so you go from holding a straight line wobble to the thing trying to shake its self from the mounting plate and then the shaft "cogs" so you get no feel at all but steering angle on.

Good job!

So honestly I think there is a bigger issue than just input type but some of the issues are localised to the type of input and others are very broad problems with the overall mechanics for car control.

Especially since we now live in a world where GT samba buses could make it to the moon and the Evos could potentially take us to mars. They have some issues that span a few touch points. Annoyingly they are important gameplay ones.

 

[GOTMAXPOWER]

@GOTMAXPOWER

As kriptical said as 100% wheel user things aren't good either

1: having to change feedback torque per car is annoying as hell. Go to do QT and either it's so over weighted you can barely move the wheel to it's so light and the dead zone is massive which makes anything precise impossible.

2: mid corner the steering just gives up for a second you are literally holding a wheel and the torque disappears for a second, it's like using a wii mote at this point.

3: the FFB just doesn't bother to show up occasionally I assume it's on strike but why the whole pause at the start thing is what people do now on wheels

4: pedal calibration resets to essentially mimic button presses (not even trigger smoothness)

5: and this is my favourite one is the oscillation, driving down a straight with nothing more than a gentle grip and the wheel will start to pendulum but the torque increase ramps up quickly so you go from holding a straight line wobble to the thing trying to shake its self from the mounting plate and then the shaft "cogs" so you get no feel at all but steering angle on.

Good job!

So honestly I think there is a bigger issue than just input type but some of the issues are localised to the type of input and others are very broad problems with the overall mechanics for car control.

Especially since we now live in a world where GT samba buses could make it to the moon and the Evos could potentially take us to mars. They have some issues that span a few touch points. Annoyingly they are important gameplay ones.

In general it sounds like the big physics update could've done with a bit more fine tuning before it was rolled out to everybody.

 

[newmedia_dev]

In general it sounds like the big physics update could've done with a bit more fine tuning before it was rolled out to everybody.

Yes.

There is a lot of missing polish on the physics, the subsequent handling and braking function.

In all honesty I think it was a rushed attempt to get more AC/ACC like but in the GT way and it hasn't quite worked V1

Basically the physics update was well intentioned but rushed if it is the physics because everything other than Gr3 the bop still actually doesn't "bop"

 

[CTznOfTime]

Just for fun, here's some stats:

Mean number of cars: 3.8
Median/mode number of cars: 3

Mean number of

• Road Cars: 2.8
• Race Cars: 0.8
• Tuned Cars: 0.2
• Asia Cars: 1.7
• Europe Cars: 1.6
• USA Cars: 0.5
• Brand Central Cars: 2.3
• Used (only) Cars: 0.7
• Legends Cars: 0.8
• All-New Cars: 2.5
• Returning Cars: 1.2

("returning" includes cars which were present in slightly different specifications/years previously; "brand central" includes any cars available there whether also available used or not)

So, we could expect that our next content update has four cars. They're likely to be three road cars and one race car, probably two each from Asia/Europe (though we've never gone four updates without a US car, and this would be the fourth), with two in Brand Central and one each in Used and Legends, with either three newcomers and one returnee or two and two.

Taking into account that, the nature of recent additions filling in gaps in generations, the propensity for pulling from the first few pages of the GTP Suggestions forum, the good ol' car data lists from waaaay back, and left-field unexpected stuff that they like to pull out from time to time, my predictions would be:

BMW i8 - Road, Europe, Brand Central, New
Ford Mustang Cobra R '00 - Road, USA, Used, Returning
Mazda Roadster (NC) - Road, Asia, Brand Central, Returning
Nissan R390 GT1 LM - Race, Asia, Legends, Returning


Or maybe that awful-looking Countach LPI800 instead of the i8, as we have had two other Lamborghinis recently. Alternatively, some recent Porsche as it's been a while since we had one and they used to be every other update, pre-2024.

i do appreciate your scientific approach to predicting based on actual data....
From an overall summary (holistic view) of everything it has come until now, it is hard to argue against your prediction...

but the real question and maybe that's the next step for you is to determine:

how close to this formula does PD/Kaz follow ?
in other word: how much variability do we see with each update from this formula

that should give us a better clue as to whether PD/Kaz actually follows any formula at all, or just the updates are based on other variables we have no visibility on... (which i suspect is the most likely case).



I would say nice try, but i would also be surprise if your prediction comes true...
I also would gladly be wrong to your benefit.

 

[05XR8]

So, I’m kind of there with four cars including the NB.

PD were so nice to give us some Group A cars, I’ll predict another finally makes its debut.

We’ve got a Trans-Am over 2.5L grid in the ‘69 Mustang, ‘69 Camaro and ‘70 Challenger. Under 2.5L Alfa Romeo GT and Mini Cooper S. Missing are the BMW 2002 and Datsun 510(Nissan Bluebird).
A new to the Gran Turismo franchise BMW 2002 Tii ‘75 from the datamine makes sense. It’ll help start and fill a gap of BMW classic sport sedans from the early CSL cars and E30.
The return of the Bluebird in fully rendered glory would be a great addition to the multitude of 1960s-1970s classics from many brands currently in the game. Also a switch from straight-six engines to add another choice for the four-cylinder contingent.

Really can’t call what we’ll get. PD do surprises well™️. Adding the AMG 500 E and/or 911 Turbo S add more bahn storming machines.

Buick GNX grants us more USA muscle and nice return of a new brand to GT7.

Then, there are GT partners Toyota and Mazda with the Celica '70 and a few Roadsters all in the datamine. Whew!

Shortlist I'll predict:

• 2002 tii
• 500 E
• NB Roadster(as we're currently having an NA Roadster One Make for the Weekly Challenge, including all generations of Roadsters next time would make sense)
• ARTA Garaiya '08

Going by Famine’s post, it’s interesting to note from update 1.52 we got “two” Toyotas. Not just the HiAce, but the GR010 black livery colour selection was added. If this is to be an update to showcase Gran Turismo 7 and PS5P, maybe a Toyota will also be in the Update.
The Celica 1600 GT ‘70 from the datamine is the fourth and last Toyota on that list(Alphard, Celica WRC and GR010 are in the game).

Last November was a seven car update:

• three USA(2 Dodge - 2018, 1968, 1 Tesla - 2023)
• two Japan(1 Lexus - 2010, 1 NISMO - 1995)
• two Europe(1 Mercedes-Benz - 1991, 1 Porsche - 2022)

November 2022 added four cars:

• two Japan(Nissan - 1996, Red Bull 25th)
• one Europe(BMW - 1989)
• one USA/Europe(Ford - 1987)

From my prediction:

• two Europe(Mercedes-Benz - 1991, BMW - 1975)
• two Japan(ASL - 2008, Mazda - 1998)

I need to add a car from the USA. It would then be the GNX 1987 I was thinking earlier.

Amended, my prediction is:

• 2002 tii ‘75
• 500 E ‘91
• NB Roadster ‘98
• ARTA Garaiya ‘08
• Buick GNX ‘87
• Toyota Celica ‘70

 

[Nielsen]

how close to this formula does PD/Kaz follow ?

I don’t think they are following a formula. You can always point out patterns and trends over a longer period of time, but this doesn’t mean the pattern is shaped by a deliberate formula.

 

[CTznOfTime]

I don’t think they are following a formula. You can always point out patterns and trends over a longer period of time, but this doesn’t mean the pattern is shaped by a deliberate formula.

And that's exactly my point ...

 

[wagnerFAM98]

• 2002 tii ‘75
• 500 E ‘91
• NB Roadster ‘98
• ARTA Garaiya ‘08
• Buick GNX ‘87
• Toyota Celica ‘70

Solid prediction. I could say it's a slightly optimistic one, but then I recall this coming update will be set around a relatively special scenario for marketing purposes (PS5 Pro).

Anyway, I'm still holding on for a smaller and little less interesting car selection, unless the fellas who know™ prove us otherwise by saying this next update will be something more.

 

[happycorey]

I like a late-NC as a prediction rather than the NB as it fills up a BC spot, so I can remove the Fiesta which is... pretty unlikely and replace it with an "American" classic-but-mainsteam-enough-to-be-used. Escort Cossie is high on our Suggestions/Cars list but not super-probable at this point, so maybe the return of the Mustang Cobra R '00?

Edit: Actually the NC would be a GT5/6 returnee so that's three returns to one new... Hmm.

Ugh don't get me excited over that Cobra R.. One of my top wishes.

It seems more probable to me that they would fill the gaps in Honda Civics with the FD2 or EP3 Type Rs. Or maybe the DC5 since it would also be returning. But the C5 Corvette is also the last missing link in the Corvettes lineage.

 

[05XR8]

Solid prediction. I could say it's a slightly optimistic one, but then I recall this coming update will be set around a relatively special scenario for marketing purposes (PS5 Pro).

Anyway, I'm still holding on for a smaller and little less interesting car selection, unless the fellas who know™ prove us otherwise by saying this next update will be something more.

Main flag in my prediction are they’re all datamine cars. Which never happened in updates so far. I’d have to include at least one we didn’t see coming. That ND RF is in the datamine, but it’s at least an up to date Roadster and new to the franchise. Plus, it’s more recent than the latest car(ASL ‘08) in my list. We just got a new R35. So, adding something more current seems more likely.
I’ll stick to my prediction and as usual, see what happens.

 

[Famine]

how close to this formula does PD/Kaz follow ?

There is no formula.

That was just a log of what we've had so far, averaged out, to give you an idea of what's come before so that expectations are... more realistic. We've only had 90 cars so far, in 24 content updates, so it's not going to be anywhere close to statistically relevant and nailing down precisely what the cars - or even types of cars - will be from that alone will be impossible.

The next update could follow the patterns of previous ones, or it could be completely different. Maybe PD will decide that we've had enough updates of 3-4 cars, mostly Europe/Asia, mostly road, mostly BC, mostly all-new and completely buck the trend to go with an unprecedented eight-car update comprising the Chaparral 2D, Chevrolet Camaro LM, Dodge Copperhead LM, Dodge Viper Oreca '99 and '00, Mario Andretti's Hudson, Saleen SR Widebody, and Vector M12 LM.

Similarly there's no reason the update can't be four UCD cars with nothing worth more than 12,000cr. It doesn't make any particular sense that it would be - they like to have at least one higher-profile car to headline it, whether expensive, classic, Vision GT, or so on - but if you could come up with a good reason for predicting that, sure (and if you're a multiple offender banned from several previous predictions threads for wishlisting and your... reason is "memes", no). There's no reason it couldn't be seven brand-new GT3 cars, except that they've never done anything like this nor shown any particular interest in bringing multiple cars of this ilk at once (or much at all).

But you can't predict that because there's no evidence for it. Nobody could have accurately predicted that 1.36 had an ambulance in it (or that it would be unavailable to buy until the next update), or that 1.52 had a commercial van in it, but that's what we got. Updates surprise us all the time, and there's a first time for everything, but it wouldn't have been reasonable to predict a HiMedic even if that's what arrived. Of course there are those who have the capability and inclination to dig out what cars are coming, but that shifts from "prediction" to "actually knowing".


Ultimately, this is supposed to be for fun - to try and guess what PD will do next - but there's always a core of people who despite having been given multiple places to make wishlists (the Suggestions/Cars forum, the actual Cars & Track Wishlist thread, threads for returning cars you'd like to see, all-new cars you'd like to see, "dream updates", and so on) and one direct instruction about not doing it in this one just have to tell everyone what they're wishing for.

Then get arsey about getting their posts removed.


Anyway, have some charts - updates by percentage of each car type:

 

[MarkBH6080]

Let's have a go then, I'm going off a Spec 2 style update:

Ferrari 812 Superfast
Aston Martin Vantage '18
Lamborghini Huracan STO
McLaren 765lt
BMW M4 '22
Porsche 718 Cayman GT4 RS
Audi TT RS '23

A track of some sort, Apricot Hill, Midfield Raceway, Pikes Peak, Gilles Villenueve, any would do.

Some kind of update to Sport mode would like to see some more races per week. And of course the Pro enhancements.

Edif: I appear to have become a comedian.

i am down with Apricot Hill and Midfield Raceway coming back to GT7

 

[suomi1]

There is no formula.

That was just a log of what we've had so far, averaged out, to give you an idea of what's come before so that expectations are... more realistic. We've only had 90 cars so far, in 24 content updates, so it's not going to be anywhere close to statistically relevant and nailing down precisely what the cars - or even types of cars - will be from that alone will be impossible.

The next update could follow the patterns of previous ones, or it could be completely different. Maybe PD will decide that we've had enough updates of 3-4 cars, mostly Europe/Asia, mostly road, mostly BC, mostly all-new and completely buck the trend to go with an unprecedented eight-car update comprising the Chaparral 2D, Chevrolet Camaro LM, Dodge Copperhead LM, Dodge Viper Oreca '99 and '00, Mario Andretti's Hudson, Saleen SR Widebody, and Vector M12 LM.

Similarly there's no reason the update can't be four UCD cars with nothing worth more than 12,000cr. It doesn't make any particular sense that it would be - they like to have at least one higher-profile car to headline it, whether expensive, classic, Vision GT, or so on - but if you could come up with a good reason for predicting that, sure (and if you're a multiple offender banned from several previous predictions threads for wishlisting and your... reason is "memes", no). There's no reason it couldn't be seven brand-new GT3 cars, except that they've never done anything like this nor shown any particular interest in bringing multiple cars of this ilk at once (or much at all).

But you can't predict that because there's no evidence for it. Nobody could have accurately predicted that 1.36 had an ambulance in it (or that it would be unavailable to buy until the next update), or that 1.52 had a commercial van in it, but that's what we got. Updates surprise us all the time, and there's a first time for everything, but it wouldn't have been reasonable to predict a HiMedic even if that's what arrived. Of course there are those who have the capability and inclination to dig out what cars are coming, but that shifts from "prediction" to "actually knowing".


Ultimately, this is supposed to be for fun - to try and guess what PD will do next - but there's always a core of people who despite having been given multiple places to make wishlists (the Suggestions/Cars forum, the actual Cars & Track Wishlist thread, threads for returning cars you'd like to see, all-new cars you'd like to see, "dream updates", and so on) and one direct instruction about not doing it in this one just have to tell everyone what they're wishing for.

Then get arsey about getting their posts removed.


Anyway, have some charts - updates by percentage of each car type:

View attachment 1400465 View attachment 1400466

View attachment 1400467 View attachment 1400468

Have you collected data on VGT / Fantasy cars?

 

[Famine]

Have you collected data on VGT / Fantasy cars?

Not especially no. Other than what updates they came in:

1.13 - Apr 22 - 3 cars - 0 VGT
1.15 - May 22 - 3 cars - 1 VGT
1.17 - Jun 22 - 3 cars - 1 VGT
1.19 - Jul 22 - 3 cars - 0 VGT
1.20 - Aug 22 - 3 cars - 0 VGT
1.23 - Sep 22 - 3 cars - 1 VGT
1.25 - Oct 22 - 4 cars - 0 VGT
1.26 - Nov 22 - 3 cars - 0 VGT
1.27 - Dec 22 - 5 cars - 1 VGT
1.29 - Feb 23 - 5 cars - 2 VGT
1.31 - Mar 23 - 5 cars - 0 VGT
1.32 - Apr 23 - 4 cars - 0 VGT
1.34 - May 23 - 3 cars - 0 VGT
1.35 - Jun 23 - 3 cars - 0 VGT
1.36 - Aug 23 - 4 cars - 0 VGT
1.38 - Sep 23 - 3 cars - 0 VGT
1.40 - Nov 23 - 7 cars - 0 VGT
1.42 - Jan 24 - 3 cars - 2 VGT
1.43 - Feb 24 - 3 cars - 0 VGT
1.44 - Mar 24 - 3 cars - 0 VGT
1.46 - Apr 24 - 3 cars - 1 VGT
1.48 - May 24 - 5 cars - 0 VGT
1.49 - Jul 24 - 6 cars - 1 VGT
1.52 - Oct 24 - 3 cars - 0 VGT

Fun fact: No month, across all years, has ever had more than one update with VGTs in it, and no month with more than two updates has not yet had a VGT update:

January - 1 update - 1 VGT update (2 VGTs)
February - 2 updates - 1 VGT update (2 VGTs)
March - 2 updates - 0 VGT update
April - 3 updates - 1 VGT update (1 VGT)
May - 3 updates - 1 VGT update (1 VGT)
June - 2 updates - 1 VGT update (1 VGT)
July - 2 updates - 1 VGT update (1 VGT)
August - 2 updates - 0 VGT update
September - 2 updates - 1 VGT update (1 VGT)
October - 2 updates - 0 VGT update
November - 2 updates - 0 VGT update
December - 1 update - 1 VGT update (1 VGT)

If the next update comes in November and doesn't have a VGT it'll break that latter pattern.

 

[hawkeyez]

Ultimately, this is supposed to be for fun - to try and guess what PD will do next - but there's always a core of people who despite having been given multiple places to make wishlists (the Suggestions/Cars forum, the actual Cars & Track Wishlist thread, threads for returning cars you'd like to see, all-new cars you'd like to see, "dream updates", and so on) and one direct instruction about not doing it in this one just have to tell everyone what they're wishing for.

The tricky thing with this is, nobody can predict what’s in an update such as the ambulance as you said, so everybody is essentially wishlist predicting until their wishlist actually comes true. I’ve been consistently “predicting” Autumn Ring but it hasn’t happened… yet. But mark my words, we’re getting it at sometime. Unless we don’t. Then it was just my personal wishlist.

Truthfully speaking, if I am going to successfully predict what’s in the next update, I’d scrap my “wishlist” items and say it’s probably a handful of cars I don’t care to own, some new scapes, a couple new single player races and another physics tweak to mess up all of our tunes yet again, because that’s one thing that’s been consistent for me recently.

There’s three things I’ve noticed in the prediction threads and in the order of what’s mostly commented

1- wishlist items
2- sarcastic disappointment in update joke
3- simply listing off stuff that’s in data mines

They’re be fun and I think all three of those keep it fun.

 

[Famine]

so everybody is essentially wishlist predicting until their wishlist actually comes true

No. A wishlist is a list of things you wish for. A prediction is a guess with evidence. There's no reason that there can't be some overlap, as I'm sure that there's some things you can list that have evidence that you would also like, but when you go for something that has no evidence it's no longer a prediction


Previous updates show that an update is likeliest to be three cars, but the mean is four. The largest ever update in GT7 history had seven cars, and we've had one update with six and four updates with five. If you're listing ten cars, that's a wishlist; there's no evidence that an update will be that large, and lots of evidence that it won't be. PD might drop a ten-car update, in which case that's evidence for future updates.

Previous updates show that an update is likeliest to have a spread of cars from different regions, but it's more likely than not to skip out one region (15 updates) than it is to have all cars from one region (two updates). The only times an update has been all one region have been three-car, all-Asia updates (1.13, 1.52). If you're posting a four-or-more-car update all from Europe, that's a wishlist; there's no evidence that an update will be that biased and in that direction, and lots of evidence that it won't be. PD might drop an all-Europe, four-car update, in which case that's evidence for future updates.

Previous updates show that an update is likeliest to bring Brand Central cars more than any other kind, and that there has never been an update without at least one car available in Brand Central. Only seven of 24 updates have seen BC cars outnumbered by Used (only) or Legends, and indeed 15 of 24 have had more BC cars than both combined (plus two where BC equals all others combined) and on only one occasion has that occurred with more than three cars in the update (1.29). If you're posting a list of four cars all from Used Cars, that's a wishlist; there's no evidence that an update will be slanted that way, and lots of evidence that it won't be. PD might drop an all-UCD, four-car update, in which case that's evidence for future updates.

A prediction must have evidence, and reasoning. That's not required of a wishlist.


Again, we have pretty much a dozen different threads for putting different types of wishlists in. The predictions threads are not for that, and I don't know why people insist on making wishlists in them when there are so many other threads for it; can't we have one thread a month for intelligence and reasoning?

The answer to that is "yes, we can, and we will". This is it (for the next update), this is what post #1 says, and that's the line drawn underneath it.