If someone is 1000th on the leaderboard you can't say he or she would set a top 10 time with the bug. You don't know that.
No, which is why I'm not saying it. I'm confident, based on the number of drivers I've raced with over the years, that there are at least 1000 people who are better drivers than some of the people with this bug and who are getting world records with ease. Therefore if your 3/100 assumption was correct we would expect to have seen more people with extra grip in the top 10 leaderboards.
You're making just as much of an assumption as I am.
I am making evidence based assumptions, or guessing based on the information we have, you are not, you're just plucking numbers out of thin air based on nothing.
Just because one person gains 2-3 seconds with the bug doesn't mean another person would only gain 1.5-2 seconds and therefore might not show up on the leaderboard.
Again, just plucking ideas out of thin air, we have no evidence to suggest these people are any more capable of going quickly with the bug than anyone else, the most likely event is that they gain an average amount. And seeing as we can estimate that all 4 of the drivers with the bug appear to be going 2-3 seconds faster with it based on their driving and the times they do that on average that is the time gained by the bug. It is of course most likely track/car dependent as well.
My opinion is that of the top let's say ~3% of people that play this game there is more than just these 4 people that have this bug.
Assuming it is a bug, which again,
we don't know, and that the % of bugged accounts is uniform, a fair assumption, then yes, you would expect more than 4 people in the top 3% of people, maybe even just in the top 3% of people that play sport mode. But that isn't what you have been saying. You're saying that rather than there being more than 4 in the top 5400 people who play sport mode, or 90,000 who have the game, that there are more than 4 in the top 133 players.
This also isn't even taking into account the people who don't even race in sport mode. I have many people on my friends list who are super fast and have no interest in sport mode at all because they just like racing with friends. I could be wrong and it could indeed be 4/1000's but I think that's wishful thinking honestly.
Non sport mode players are irrelevant when we are talking about %s.