GT6 coming 1st quarter 2013? (Nobody knows)
- Thread starter GTRufus
- 258 comments
- 20,420 views
Those of us hoping for GT6 on PS3 still have hope, but it is diminishing. Here's why:
1) All signs point to PS4 and Xbox 720 launching late 2013. Some still think PS4 will be 2014 but anyone thinking of Sony strategy know they can't be late this time out. And yes, this is despite what Jack Tretton said about first wanting the best console... not just the first.
2) 95% of AAA games launching between now and next summer have either already been shown or are being revealed right now at E3. GT6, if it was launching in that window, would likely have been revealed.
3) That leaves a decision for Sony. Launch GT6 for PS3 right as you are launching a new PS4 or choose to develop GT6 for PS4 and get it out earlier than GT5 came out for PS3. It is possible that they will choose the PS3 route for GT6 in late 2013-- the positive is that they will sell a ton of them because so many PS3s are out there. The negative is that it delays GT7 years more into the PS4 cycle and Forza 5 will be out early in the Xbox 720 cycle so it hurts you in selling PS4s vs. Xbox.
If you were Sony and you wanted to recapture the significant market share you lost to Microsoft during the transition from PS2 to PS3, what would you choose to do? Have PD release GT6 for PS3 and then wait another 4 years for GT7? Or push PD to develop it for PS4 and get it out within a year or so of launch to help regain market share?
I do think Sony could have chosen either way... there is rationale to support either choice. But the bigger picture, which is really critical to Sony whose stock is very depressed right now, seems to point toward maximizing the launch of PS4. This doesn't mean GT6 would be a launch title but that it would arrive potentially much sooner than GT5 did in the console cycle.
If I was a significant shareholder of Sony stock, I know which route I would choose to go.
1) All signs point to PS4 and Xbox 720 launching late 2013. Some still think PS4 will be 2014 but anyone thinking of Sony strategy know they can't be late this time out. And yes, this is despite what Jack Tretton said about first wanting the best console... not just the first.
2) 95% of AAA games launching between now and next summer have either already been shown or are being revealed right now at E3. GT6, if it was launching in that window, would likely have been revealed.
3) That leaves a decision for Sony. Launch GT6 for PS3 right as you are launching a new PS4 or choose to develop GT6 for PS4 and get it out earlier than GT5 came out for PS3. It is possible that they will choose the PS3 route for GT6 in late 2013-- the positive is that they will sell a ton of them because so many PS3s are out there. The negative is that it delays GT7 years more into the PS4 cycle and Forza 5 will be out early in the Xbox 720 cycle so it hurts you in selling PS4s vs. Xbox.
If you were Sony and you wanted to recapture the significant market share you lost to Microsoft during the transition from PS2 to PS3, what would you choose to do? Have PD release GT6 for PS3 and then wait another 4 years for GT7? Or push PD to develop it for PS4 and get it out within a year or so of launch to help regain market share?
I do think Sony could have chosen either way... there is rationale to support either choice. But the bigger picture, which is really critical to Sony whose stock is very depressed right now, seems to point toward maximizing the launch of PS4. This doesn't mean GT6 would be a launch title but that it would arrive potentially much sooner than GT5 did in the console cycle.
If I was a significant shareholder of Sony stock, I know which route I would choose to go.
Like I said in another thread, what exactly are the signs of a 2013 release? Those 'leaked' rumours by Kotaku? Because it's not going to be announced until E3 that year at the earliest and it's very unlikely they will release the console that same year, 6 months later.
Also you seem to be suggesting GT and Forza games sell their respective consoles and without them they would flop. That's clearly not true as four years of PS3 without a proper GT game and good but not mindblowing sales of the Forza franchise didn't do them much harm.
Also you seem to be suggesting GT and Forza games sell their respective consoles and without them they would flop. That's clearly not true as four years of PS3 without a proper GT game and good but not mindblowing sales of the Forza franchise didn't do them much harm.
- 1,414
- redrobin347
^^^ all great point.
I feel GT6 will be released on the PS3. The foundation is there from GT5. Added tweaks, tracks and an up to date dealership is all that would really be needed. Worth it? I couldn't tell you. But PD and Sony are sitting in a nice position for some easy money before moving on to the PS4 with the GT series. They'd be foolish not to bank on it.
I feel GT6 will be released on the PS3. The foundation is there from GT5. Added tweaks, tracks and an up to date dealership is all that would really be needed. Worth it? I couldn't tell you. But PD and Sony are sitting in a nice position for some easy money before moving on to the PS4 with the GT series. They'd be foolish not to bank on it.
The main reason I think it will be PS3 is thus. We know for a FACT that the game was in development since before GT5 released. That means they either started it as a PS3 game then, started it as a PS4 game with a very very early dev kit or started it as a PS3 game and planned to morph it to a PS4 game when they had dev kits.
Which seems most likely? To me, it's the first one. I don't see them having dev kits representative of final PS4 hardware in 2010 and nor do I see them just morphing it into a PS4 game when they did get them.
We also have Kaz on record saying that GT5 was like the operating system and GT6 would just be like applications on top of it. Of course anything Kaz says should be taken with a container ship of salt but If he knew at that time GT6 would be a PS4 game that would be a pretty silly thing to say, considering a PS4 game would be a new 'operating system' again.
Which seems most likely? To me, it's the first one. I don't see them having dev kits representative of final PS4 hardware in 2010 and nor do I see them just morphing it into a PS4 game when they did get them.
We also have Kaz on record saying that GT5 was like the operating system and GT6 would just be like applications on top of it. Of course anything Kaz says should be taken with a container ship of salt but If he knew at that time GT6 would be a PS4 game that would be a pretty silly thing to say, considering a PS4 game would be a new 'operating system' again.
Last edited:
- 22,551
- Arizona
- HamiltonMP427
To be honest Simon, I wouldn't be surprised if it were on PS4. However, traditionally speaking it should be on the PS3. We will see, I always tend to agree with you but Kaz has a way of making people not believe anything he says unless it's related to the Nurb 24.
I wouldn't be surprised either, I just honestly believe everything currently points towards a PS3 release. 'traind' does raise a very good point up there though, if it is a PS3 game to be released in 2013 it's going to have to be announced quite soon. Because if it is a PS3 game they're working on Kaz would have to meet the release deadlines, he couldn't delay it this time because then it really would be too late in the cycle. Or he would end up morphing it into a PS4 game and it take even longer.
Sony lost a staggering amount of market share from PS2 to PS3. Something like 25%! That is billions in revenue for a company whose stock is currently tanking...
All the signs point to next gen launching next year. I admit, more has released about the next xbox than the ps4 but, again, Sony will not allow their next console to arrive much later, if any later, than xbox. If they do, their goose may be cooked again as xbox has more momentum as it is.
What are the signs? There are too many for me to want to list all. Here are a few:
1) Multiple sources have confirmed developers have next gen xbox kits in hand -- for the last 2-3 months, actually, if it is a big developer. I know that isn't Sony but the 'can't be late' premise pertains here.
2) Developers are working on next gen tech and games and we are seeing it more an more. E3 is showing several early game demos that are clearly next gen titles in play... 1313, the square FF tech demo, the Unreal Engine 4 tech demo debuting publicly tomorrow night. There may be more. All the DX11 heavy demos are next gen console games or tech in a very light disguise. Sure, Watch Dogs may come out on this gen but it will not look like the DX11 demo that blew everyone away! You'll also see this one be a launch/near launch next gen title. Developers were ready to show next gen if they had to due to the console makers announcing... but they didn't have to. Some did anyway
3) Next year, tablets will have caught up or passed current gen specs. Smart phones aren't too far behind. Consoles need to move forward technically (cutting edge) to continue to differentiate from this very real incursion into the gaming space from Apple etc.
I don't think next gen will be announced at E3 next year. I think it will be done separately, probably post holiday season. Microsoft will get Spike TV or MTV to do a special on it-- introduce it publicly in Q1 2013 after selling a ton of 360s at Christmas 2012. Then build up to E3 as the full coming out party.
Sony will have to follow suit, or risk losing more share, particularly in the US.
Of course this is speculation to a point. But it is informed speculation. The companies could both hold off another year until 2014... but I would bet 80/20 that one will squeeze the trigger and the other will be pressured to follow in 2013. And if Sony holds off as xbox next launches... Microsoft will be very happy.
Right, but that wasn't anything to do with GT or Forza, all about them launching too late.
Completely agree there.
Can you show me this evidence? Not that I don't believe you, I've just genuinely not seen 100% proof of anything.
Also any ideas when they got dev kits for the previous consoles, how far in advance? I can't find anything googling.
2) Developers are working on next gen tech and games and we are seeing it more an more. E3 is showing several early game demos that are clearly next gen titles in play... 1313, the square FF tech demo, the Unreal Engine 4 tech demo debuting publicly tomorrow night. There may be more. All the DX11 heavy demos are next gen console games or tech in a very light disguise. Sure, Watch Dogs may come out on this gen but it will not look like the DX11 demo that blew everyone away! You'll also see this one be a launch/near launch next gen title. Developers were ready to show next gen if they had to due to the console makers announcing... but they didn't have to. Some did anyway
Again a good point, but how can you be sure they were next gen console games in disguise? Couldn't they have been running on PC tech?
Once again true but tablets and phones will still not get close to the core console gaming markets because....they're not a console.
Interesting theory, I suppose that could happen.
Indeed, and it is interesting to wonder how the two companies keep an eye on each other, what they're planning and trying to match them. You have to assume they both have insiders for each other if they're trying to release at the same time. They probably knew about Wii U long before we did but just let them release first becaue they knew it would barely be more powerful than their current hardware.
It'll be interesting to see how this does pan out.
- 3,239
- New York
- thepatriots
This is my theory as well. The tradition unveil at E3 and release next year schedule will not be followed next gen. Its stupid anyways. Why? Look at Apple. Announce one week, sell the next. It works much better. Look at Wii sales after the WiiU was announced. \ = that is what it looks like.
I think we will see rumblings at GDC for both 720 and PS4 and then each will, like you said, have their own coming out party on Spike TV or whatever. If they are really smart they will start their own event. No distraction, just company and product.
The next Forza (5) IS going to be a nextbox title. With this in mind, I think it would be logical for Sony to counter with GT6. I do not think either game will be available at launch, but they will both be shown and demoed as a showcase of what the console can do.
- 646
- UK
It's not even a tradition. The PS2 wasn't announced at E3, the GameCube wasn't announced at E3, the 360 wasn't announced at E3 and nor was Vita. In the 360's case, it launched six months after it was announced in the same year.paskowitz
Every system is all over the place wrt their announcement-to-release, and they don't all happen at E3. For sure PS4/Nextbox won't be released without a E3 2013 showing, but after that, anything is possible.
Wow... I am spending too much time on this!! Here goes
1) The GT6 Forza relevance for console launches is that racing games are a console mainstay and showing the games early helps sway on the fence buyers to your camp. The $ pain Sony in, in theory, should impact decision making. Then again, it was mediocre decisions that got them to this point although their games business is not suffering like their other segments
2) Here are a few links from generally good sources:
http://semiaccurate.com/2012/01/18/xbox-nextxbox-720-chips-in-production/
http://www.develop-online.net/news/39580/Next-gen-Xbox-chips-enter-production-for-devs
http://www.tomsguide.com/us/Oban-Xbox-IBM-GlobalFoundries-SoC,news-13984.html
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-04-03-next-gen-consoles-mean-increased-development-costs
http://semiaccurate.com/2012/01/18/xbox-nextxbox-720-chips-in-production/
http://www.tomsguide.com/us/PlayStation-PS4-Masaru-Kato-Kaz-Hirai-Console-Gaming,news-11339.html
Most of those links are about the xbox, the last is about a financial report for Sony where significant spending on R&D was noted for PS4 early last year
3) Dev kits never come out early enough! Devs have to wing it to a certain degree... because kits are not finalized until late in the game... usually. Withe the next gen, devs have been doing everything on PC first with DX11 until they go the kits recently. This gives them close to two years including PC time to get games ready for next November. That is better than other console launches in the past.
4) The 'next gen' games I mentioned were all running on PC in DX11 at E3. DX11 is a proxy for next gen consoles at this point. Next year it will be more console specific.
5) I agree tablets don't compete in the hardcore gamer space... but they do take more casual gamers away from consoles... or at least they have the potential to continue to grow in this area. The gaming business is more than just hardcore gamers....
6) Microsoft formally launched the 360 on MTV... they bought the 30 minute or 60 minute segment... I think it was 30 minutes. If they don't go this route again, they will use GDC as they will not want to fully wait until E3.
It will be interesting. Again, above is informed speculation.
One other thing... Jack Tretton from Sony spoke yesterday about wanting the best console... not just being first to market. That it was good to be first and cheapest and best... but best is the key one. It is possible that Sony is behind Microsoft in the race to get Dev kits to developers. Thus he states the issue in the way he did. They have never been as good as MSFT at DevKits anyway, after all, MSFT is a software company.
But this could mean 1) they are behind the curve and want to catch up 2) they are behind the curve and don't care because they just want quality or 3) it was just a way of him saying we'll be the best regardless of what MSFT does and has no bearing at all on launch timing vs. MSFT.
Who knows? Most of it is a bit of double talk anyway until they get ready to reveal the true plans. And it is high stakes... (executive) heads will roll if PS4 loses market share in the next transition
But this could mean 1) they are behind the curve and want to catch up 2) they are behind the curve and don't care because they just want quality or 3) it was just a way of him saying we'll be the best regardless of what MSFT does and has no bearing at all on launch timing vs. MSFT.
Who knows? Most of it is a bit of double talk anyway until they get ready to reveal the true plans. And it is high stakes... (executive) heads will roll if PS4 loses market share in the next transition
Sony is in a rush to "right the ship" . Their stock, a few days ago, was at the lowest point it had been in over 25 years!
That means they need to make smart choices across all business units and the games business is their best bet to anchor them, so to speak. PS3 is not hurting like the TV business is, as a example. If they make a bad strategic choice about launching, they make a poor situation worse. This all adds a ton of pressure onto the PS4 system and launch choices.
MSFT, on the other hand, has momentum in the games sector and a large war chest of cash to support next gen.
- 99
- London, UK
- PM me.
- 1,414
- redrobin347
Just speaking on the gaming side of things. Has technology advanced enough since the launch of the PS3 to warrant a PS4 within the next couple of years? With the economy in the tank, would it be wise to rush a next gen system which would probably run between $600 - $800?
I feel the PS3 is at the middle of its life span. 2014 seems a bit soon to me. I think we are more likely to the PS4 around the 2016 time period. I still feel GT6 will be launched on the PS3. History would prove that point. 2 GT titles per gen.
100% yes. It's moved on enough to warrant a PS4 tomorrow.
I get the feeling Sony will learn their lesson and it won't even be as much as PS3 on launch. Although with that being said, people nowadays seem willing to spend $600+ on a tablet so maybe the market is ready. I still think they'll keep it as cheap as possible though, same for the Xbox.
No, that's far too late. PS3 has a ten year life cycle like the PS2 but that doesn't mean the next console launches at the end of the cycle in November 2016. PS3 launched only 6 years into the PS2s cycle.
It's 2013 or 2014, I'm certain.
I think both companies will try to avoid a staggering initial price even though the early adopters will pay it (and more on Ebay). It is possible the hardware will not be as bleeding edge as it was with the 360 and PS3. They can increase horsepower by 5-6 times what consoles have now and keep the price reasonable. To get 10-12 times the power, they need to go bleeding edge and price the box more.
MSFT also has the issue of bundling Kinect v2 with every box... and what does that add to the cost? Sony likely will not take that route with Move so that may let them keep cost the same and ramp up power or memory a little bit over MSFT.... or lower the cost slightly.
MSFT is playing with cell phone like contracts right now with the 360. You can by one for $99 with an xbox live contract that is slightly more per month than you would otherwise pay for Live. That is an experiment for their next gen selling model which may be something like $400 with no contract and $200 with a 2 year contract at $15/month. More in the long term for MSFT but upfront costs are much lower for the consumer.
MSFT also has the issue of bundling Kinect v2 with every box... and what does that add to the cost? Sony likely will not take that route with Move so that may let them keep cost the same and ramp up power or memory a little bit over MSFT.... or lower the cost slightly.
MSFT is playing with cell phone like contracts right now with the 360. You can by one for $99 with an xbox live contract that is slightly more per month than you would otherwise pay for Live. That is an experiment for their next gen selling model which may be something like $400 with no contract and $200 with a 2 year contract at $15/month. More in the long term for MSFT but upfront costs are much lower for the consumer.
- 5,897
- Pittsburgh, PA
- The_Bman24
A single exclusive AAA title won't sell millions of consoles in a short time, even as a launch title. If Sony launched the PS4 with multiple AAA exclusives, such as God of War, Uncharted, and Gran Turismo, the console would sell like pancakes.
Otherwise, if GT6 is the only exclusive AAA launch title, the console won't sell as well. Sony should be smart and have their studios develop games for all of these franchises and release all of them at launch. It will increase sales and there will be a high demand for PS4 consoles.
I would prefer GT6 on PS3, but if they won't release it on PS3 then I would prefer it to either be release a year into the PS4's lifespan or as one of the console's launch titles, but only if it will be launched alongside other AAA exclusives. That being for sales to increase.
- 5,785
- Norman, OK
- McClarenDesign
Slashfan
1. That's unnecessary. Stop.
2. Evidence?
- 2,059
- Under your bed.
- Ask me, man.
[Kazunori Yamauchi]: I actually enjoy working. So I do not tend to want to take a Holiday. And of course there are still many things I can do for Gran Turismo. This will probably lead me to begin the development of GT6. Whatever happens I can assure you that waiting for GT6 will not be as long as that of Gran Turismo 5.
From this article.
If GT5 took roughly 5 years, what is "not as long"? 3 years? 4 years? 2-2.5?
From this article.
If GT5 took roughly 5 years, what is "not as long"? 3 years? 4 years? 2-2.5?
