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- Tetsumura
- Nigel Fox
About that GT6 and PS4. On both of those items, this is up to SONY and Kaz, but with Gran Turismo of course, mostly Kaz. Get ready for another LENGTHY Tenacious dissertation, but it should have a lot of food for thought. Maybe too much, but oh well. 
First the PS4. It's looking highly likely that both the PS2 and PS3 will be breaking the 11 year production barrier established by the PS1. The PS2 has proven to have extreme longevity thanks to an excellent library and surprisingly good graphic capacity. Even in this HD age, games like Devil May Cry 3 look stunning on the PS2. And the game library is freaking huge, with a massive number of new and used games of fantastic quality and gameplay. PS3 of course is far better, with true 1080p capacity with Blu-ray, a much larger optical media, Move support, and standard off-the-shelf user replaceable hard drives, as well as all kinds of built in connectivity. And then there are the incredible games, a large number of highly addicting titles from A Class developers such as Insomniac, Guerrilla Games, Naughty Dog, and our much loved Polyphony Digital. The computational, graphic and audio capacity of the PS3 is so great that it could well be manufactured for several more years, to serve as both a game system and videophile quality Blu-ray player.
GT5 seems to have plumbed the depths to which that Cell power of PS3 can be mined. While it looks breathtaking, for the most part, there are sometimes ugly graphical glitches depending on the scene and what the RSX is trying to render. Still, this is an example of the bleeding edge of graphics, and other games such as Uncharted, Killzone and Ratchet & Clank are able to paint amazingly lush, detailed worlds full of color, life and action. Great explosions and stuff.
But SONY is making products to sell to a public hungry for the best in affordable entertainment. While GT5 is an amazing racer with visuals to die for, for the most part, it's those graphic glitches that make some critics... well, critical. No one likes criticism. It affects the buying mood of the public, sometimes to a detrimental extent. It doesn't look like this has tainted GT5 or the PS3. Yet. As CSLACR has posted, within two weeks of release, the first pay-for-DLC has racked up a million sales. And I expect GT5 to sell by the truckload this holiday season.
But how long can this last with a fickle game buying public, especially with the Wii HD/2/Whatever looming in the wings next year, and fairly solid rumors of NextBox dev kits going to developers? Forza 4 is looking extremely good, with none of the graphic glitches of GT5 (as of Spec II), and a pretty rock solid 60fps framerate.
SONY execs have some well paid fortune tellers predicting market moves which they rely on to make future business decisions, such as how viable and profitable it would be to rely on PS3 as the primary HD entertainment platform for X-number years. And how many GT5 games will sell over the coming years with continued support from PD, or without. And this has to be predicted well ahead, years in advance of any decisions on production of anything. DVDs and Blu-rays can be stamped or stopped at a moment's notice, but the plants have to have their workloads scheduled for maximum efficiency. Running a manufacturing plant is nothing like managing the utilities of your home. Factories can't just be turned on and off, there's a lengthy process involved in every production action, and things must be plotted on calendars in order to keep costs manageable. Making a game console is even worse.
At some point, a prediction of some barometer crossing a certain threshhold will mean that the PS3 will be a second grade market item, then a third, then dead. If being second grade means unacceptable losses, they want PS4 to be there within a certain market timing window to fight that gap head on and begin to penetrate the market in big numbers to establish the new Playstation generation. While rumors point to 2014 or even later, this is pure speculation at this point, due to the cold war nature of the contest between SONY and MS, and the impact Wii2 will have. And how much the buying public seems hungry for the next Playstation. It's possible Wii2 or XBox3 could change these equations drastically.
So what does this mean for GT5 DLC and GT6, and its platform? SONY knows that a Gran Turismo of any kind will make them a small fortune in guaranteed globals sales. GT5 Prologue was proof of that, being a rare platinum seller on pre-orders alone, and outselling many major games. But they also know that it's cheaper to milk an existing franchise, and GT5 is still very popular. Even though some here were sure the first DLC was going to bomb, it sold amazingly well and made SONY millions of dollars more with very little cost. Many here, including me, bought the whole thing.
Some of you may not like this, but this is a sign that we may be looking at Spec III, Spec IV - plus, and periodic DLC keeping GT5 the current Gran Turismo game for a few years. On top of that, if you've read many interviews of Kazunori, he considers each game much like a son, and wants it to be loved by the fans as he does. It's clear that GT5 wasn't living up to his expectations either, with the frooky work schedule such as GT PSP production intruding, a damage model which displeased just about everyone and ended up being scrapped with a year or more of work on it, and other matters. He wanted as much as three more years of work on it, but we all begged him - well, except me - to release something which could be patched later, and no doubt SONY gave Kaz a do or die deadline of last holiday season.
We may be in the first year of his three year after-market upgrade scheme, managed by a portion of the team, though perhaps most or all of the coders from time to time. I see nothing but positives for this, as GT5 is already a solid, extremely fun and pretty darn realistic racer which just needs some modifying here and there. Some of the changes I mentioned in a previous post could easily be done to enhance an already great game, such as expanding A-Spec Events, adding an Event/Championship Generator, Livery Templates and other things. Graphics can be tweaked even more, shadows, particle effects and framerate issues more or less fixed. The online system can have a major overhaul. Many things can be implemented without too much work with periodic updates to keep GT5 fresh and engaging to the gaming public. Of course if I'm right, this means no GT6 until 2014 or 2015, and on PS4.
For you guys groaning at all this, there is another possibility.
I don't expect a GT6 until 2013 at the very earliest, because two years between GTs of this scale is just too soon, and as I said, the DLC makes GT5 just too profitable. And assuming PD took NO break, which just isn't feasable - or humane, they could model at the most an additional 100 some odd cars and 10 tracks, give or take, based on the production time of GT5. Being pretty sure that GT6 will only have Premium-level content, the game would then only have around 330 cars and 30 tracks, with some variations. At least three years would afford them some breathing room. And okay, this is with PD's current staff size of around 150, with perhaps 80 of them being modelers. In three years, with an expanded staff, a GT6 could have 500-600 cars, and 60 tracks plus the usual variations. Along with that, a whole slew of new features, and numerous fixes which caused so many complaints for GT5.
There are clearly advantages to releasing a GT6 on PS3.
But likewise, there are a number of reasons to save GT6 for PS4.
First the PS4. It's looking highly likely that both the PS2 and PS3 will be breaking the 11 year production barrier established by the PS1. The PS2 has proven to have extreme longevity thanks to an excellent library and surprisingly good graphic capacity. Even in this HD age, games like Devil May Cry 3 look stunning on the PS2. And the game library is freaking huge, with a massive number of new and used games of fantastic quality and gameplay. PS3 of course is far better, with true 1080p capacity with Blu-ray, a much larger optical media, Move support, and standard off-the-shelf user replaceable hard drives, as well as all kinds of built in connectivity. And then there are the incredible games, a large number of highly addicting titles from A Class developers such as Insomniac, Guerrilla Games, Naughty Dog, and our much loved Polyphony Digital. The computational, graphic and audio capacity of the PS3 is so great that it could well be manufactured for several more years, to serve as both a game system and videophile quality Blu-ray player.
GT5 seems to have plumbed the depths to which that Cell power of PS3 can be mined. While it looks breathtaking, for the most part, there are sometimes ugly graphical glitches depending on the scene and what the RSX is trying to render. Still, this is an example of the bleeding edge of graphics, and other games such as Uncharted, Killzone and Ratchet & Clank are able to paint amazingly lush, detailed worlds full of color, life and action. Great explosions and stuff.
But SONY is making products to sell to a public hungry for the best in affordable entertainment. While GT5 is an amazing racer with visuals to die for, for the most part, it's those graphic glitches that make some critics... well, critical. No one likes criticism. It affects the buying mood of the public, sometimes to a detrimental extent. It doesn't look like this has tainted GT5 or the PS3. Yet. As CSLACR has posted, within two weeks of release, the first pay-for-DLC has racked up a million sales. And I expect GT5 to sell by the truckload this holiday season.
But how long can this last with a fickle game buying public, especially with the Wii HD/2/Whatever looming in the wings next year, and fairly solid rumors of NextBox dev kits going to developers? Forza 4 is looking extremely good, with none of the graphic glitches of GT5 (as of Spec II), and a pretty rock solid 60fps framerate.
SONY execs have some well paid fortune tellers predicting market moves which they rely on to make future business decisions, such as how viable and profitable it would be to rely on PS3 as the primary HD entertainment platform for X-number years. And how many GT5 games will sell over the coming years with continued support from PD, or without. And this has to be predicted well ahead, years in advance of any decisions on production of anything. DVDs and Blu-rays can be stamped or stopped at a moment's notice, but the plants have to have their workloads scheduled for maximum efficiency. Running a manufacturing plant is nothing like managing the utilities of your home. Factories can't just be turned on and off, there's a lengthy process involved in every production action, and things must be plotted on calendars in order to keep costs manageable. Making a game console is even worse.
At some point, a prediction of some barometer crossing a certain threshhold will mean that the PS3 will be a second grade market item, then a third, then dead. If being second grade means unacceptable losses, they want PS4 to be there within a certain market timing window to fight that gap head on and begin to penetrate the market in big numbers to establish the new Playstation generation. While rumors point to 2014 or even later, this is pure speculation at this point, due to the cold war nature of the contest between SONY and MS, and the impact Wii2 will have. And how much the buying public seems hungry for the next Playstation. It's possible Wii2 or XBox3 could change these equations drastically.
So what does this mean for GT5 DLC and GT6, and its platform? SONY knows that a Gran Turismo of any kind will make them a small fortune in guaranteed globals sales. GT5 Prologue was proof of that, being a rare platinum seller on pre-orders alone, and outselling many major games. But they also know that it's cheaper to milk an existing franchise, and GT5 is still very popular. Even though some here were sure the first DLC was going to bomb, it sold amazingly well and made SONY millions of dollars more with very little cost. Many here, including me, bought the whole thing.
Some of you may not like this, but this is a sign that we may be looking at Spec III, Spec IV - plus, and periodic DLC keeping GT5 the current Gran Turismo game for a few years. On top of that, if you've read many interviews of Kazunori, he considers each game much like a son, and wants it to be loved by the fans as he does. It's clear that GT5 wasn't living up to his expectations either, with the frooky work schedule such as GT PSP production intruding, a damage model which displeased just about everyone and ended up being scrapped with a year or more of work on it, and other matters. He wanted as much as three more years of work on it, but we all begged him - well, except me - to release something which could be patched later, and no doubt SONY gave Kaz a do or die deadline of last holiday season.
We may be in the first year of his three year after-market upgrade scheme, managed by a portion of the team, though perhaps most or all of the coders from time to time. I see nothing but positives for this, as GT5 is already a solid, extremely fun and pretty darn realistic racer which just needs some modifying here and there. Some of the changes I mentioned in a previous post could easily be done to enhance an already great game, such as expanding A-Spec Events, adding an Event/Championship Generator, Livery Templates and other things. Graphics can be tweaked even more, shadows, particle effects and framerate issues more or less fixed. The online system can have a major overhaul. Many things can be implemented without too much work with periodic updates to keep GT5 fresh and engaging to the gaming public. Of course if I'm right, this means no GT6 until 2014 or 2015, and on PS4.
For you guys groaning at all this, there is another possibility.
I don't expect a GT6 until 2013 at the very earliest, because two years between GTs of this scale is just too soon, and as I said, the DLC makes GT5 just too profitable. And assuming PD took NO break, which just isn't feasable - or humane, they could model at the most an additional 100 some odd cars and 10 tracks, give or take, based on the production time of GT5. Being pretty sure that GT6 will only have Premium-level content, the game would then only have around 330 cars and 30 tracks, with some variations. At least three years would afford them some breathing room. And okay, this is with PD's current staff size of around 150, with perhaps 80 of them being modelers. In three years, with an expanded staff, a GT6 could have 500-600 cars, and 60 tracks plus the usual variations. Along with that, a whole slew of new features, and numerous fixes which caused so many complaints for GT5.
There are clearly advantages to releasing a GT6 on PS3.
- The PS3 is well established, with a large user base and good racing wheels available.
- Much of the work is already established making GT5.
- The team knows the system well by now, and can perhaps squeeze even more power out of it with time to devote specifically to enhancements.
- A number of fans want it on PS3.
- Shortcomings of GT5 left many fans wanting GT6 early.
- Game design can be focused on by the team, and will be more like the game we want, without strange things like the XP system and paint chips.
But likewise, there are a number of reasons to save GT6 for PS4.
- GT5 is still quite popular.
- DLC and updates will keep GT5 interest high, make a lot of profit for SONY, transform the game in many ways, and buy extra time for GT6 development.
- The power of the PS3 has been tapped for the most part, and GT5 shows the consequences.
- Some features just can't be done on PS3, such as the Movie Maker which was scrapped because PS3 lacks enough ram.
- The team will have worked on the development of PS4, the OS and tools, so it will be mostly familiar to them.
- GT6 will sell a good number of PS4s.
- New technology means automatic hype and appeal for a new game.
- Game engine porting will require little work, can have numerous added features and much more performance. Model and asset porting will be no trouble.
- Graphics will show huge improvement.
- More powerful processors will allow more complicated dynamics such as A.I., damage modeling, effects such as weather and time of day transition, and the same may well be true of physics.
- Race fields will have more cars.
- Movie Maker will now be possible, as well as many, many powerful features.
- More, but I'm getting tired.