There was a nascar.com chase prediction percentage thing that I saw on Sportscenter eariler.
It had Jeff Gordon at 50.6%, Kyle Busch at 48.1% and Marcos Ambrose at the remaining percent. I could be off by a few tenths as I'm going off memory here as I couldn't actually find said nascar.com prediction. I'm not sure how those results were achieved, but Kyle's statistics show that he is the one with the best chance at clinching.
Also, speaking of Busch, Richard Childress said that he would put Kurt in a 4th car next season if a sponsor could be found.