North Korea, Sanctions, and Kim Jong-un

[a6m5]

I totally agree that China isn't going to let North Korea attack Japan. I do think that it is possible that North Korea is unstable enough to do something crazy like that though.

The thing about all this is it may be aimed at Japan.
China is allied to North Korea and China hates Japan at this present moment. The US needs to defend Japan as it is their first response to any Asian crisis.

While all three(China, North & South Korea) pushes Anti-Japan sentiments, I think the North & South Korea's resentment of Japan is stronger than that from China.

Japan is under the protection of the U.S., thanks to the security pact that was signed during the Cold War. While it's sometimes debated if the U.S. would back Japan in potential Chinese invasion of the Senkaku Islands(China has claimed the territory since the 1970's), attack on any undisputed territory of Japan, the U.S. is obligated to offer protection.

Interesting document on the spread of outside media in NK and its effect on those using it....

http://audiencescapes.org/sites/default/files/A_Quiet_Opening_FINAL_InterMedia.pdf


...exploiting this, many believe is the best way to undermine the NK government.

Thank you for sharing this. 👍 What a find! This is the most thorough article I've ever read on the subject. I've read just some of it, but I'm going to check it out a bit more later.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

North Korea warns that if the US goes ahead with military drills schedueld for next month, it will trigger a war:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-02-24/north-korea-warns-of-destruction-over-war-drills/4536456

It's not the first time they've shown such aggressive rhetoric, but I don't recall them doing it so soon after carrying out nuclear tests and/or inflammatory propaganda.

 

[xXKingJoshXx]

I hope we don't have to go to war with NK, but part of me just wants us to screw them up so bad they won't be able to remember why they were so stupid to mess with us and our allies. I can't tell if they are making these threats to try and intimidate us or if they are really THAT dumb and think they're performing invasion rehearsals. North Korea, you dumb, you really really dumb.

 

[arora]

I seriously doubt we will go to war with NK. They are looking for world recognition, kinda like a child who feels neglected at the dinner table.

 

[xXKingJoshXx]

I agree that they are just wanting attention, but I don't think North Korea knows when to stop when it comes to how crazy they are going to be.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

I hope we don't have to go to war with NK

If it happens, it probably won't be much of a war. The entire political system in North Korea is designed to keep the government in power. If that government were to be taken out, then there would probably be no clear command structure in the surviving military ranks. North Korea's forces, whilst fuelled by a desire to avenge the loss of their leaders, would probably be disorganised, and North Korea's "cities" (if they can be called that) are too isolated, both geograpically and technologically, to be able to pick up where Pyongyang left off.

The real danger is a fail-deadly. Where a fail-safe system is designed to prevent the launch of a missile by requiring independent confirmation, a fail-deadly is designed to guarantee the launch of a missile by requiring independent confirmation. It's believed that the Soviets had one - if, in the event, Moscow or the Kremlin were destroyed, a signal being sent to Soviet military installations would be cut off, which would be the signal to fire everything at everyone, and not to stop until they're sure everything has been wiped out. If North Korea has a fail-deadly that would activate in the event that Pyongyang is taken out, then only way to prevent it would be to simultaneously take out any high-value miliatary installation - like the enrichment plant at Yongbyon - so that if the fail-deadly signal were to stop, nothing could be launched. But you'd have to be sure that you knew where everything was, and that you could target it all at once, because one bomb falling too soon might prompt a retaliation. That said, North Korea isn't believed to have a widespread nuclear programme, so there probably wouldn't be that many targets.

 

[arora]

The real danger is a fail-deadly.

I'd say pissing off china is a larger danger then the rest of your James bond post.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

This is taken from the Wikipedia page on a fail-deadly:

Fail-deadly is a concept in nuclear military strategy that encourages deterrence by guaranteeing an immediate, automatic, and overwhelming response to an attack. The term "fail-deadly" was coined as a contrast to "fail-safe".

And this is taken from the article on Dead Hand (quite literally "hand from coffin"), which was the mainstay of Soviet nuclear strategy:

An example of fail-deadly deterrence, it can automatically trigger the launch of the Russian Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) if a nuclear strike is detected by seismic, light, radioactivity and overpressure sensors.

Still believe that this is the stuff of spy fiction?

I'd say pissing off china is a larger danger

Why, if I may ask, do you think that China and America don't talk to one another, and the first time that each side learns of what the other side is planning is about ten minutes after the other side does it?

If the North were to attack an American military exercise, what possible reason would China have for being upset by America hitting back? They don't need North Korea. They don't get any strategic or economic value out of allying themselves with the North. The only reason why they do it is for the sake of maintaining a diplomatic presence and trying to keep the North in line, which works because the North know they need China more than China needs them. If the North attacked America, China would probably just sent a message that amounted to "you're on your own now" and leave them to dig themselves out of the mess they'd gotten themselves into. The only thing China might get upset about is if a nuclear, chemical or biological device were to be used that could spread fallout or toxic material across China. But you can bet that if ever the North attacked America, America would keep China in the loop on what their plans are.

 

[arora]

As far as NK is concerned? yes.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

As far as NK is concerned? yes.

It's not that difficult to set up.

There is a radio station outside Moscow known as UVB-76. Since 1982, it has broadcast a signal almost continuously - a flat, monotone buzzer, with an extra sound to mark the hour. Nobody knew what it was for, but when people realised that it was set up in such a way that someone had to be present at the the point of transmission to maintain the signal, speculation suggested that it was Russia's fail-deadly, sending its signal out to every military installation installation in Russia. If ever Moscow was destroyed, UVB-76 would stop transmitting, unleashing Russia's nuclear arsenal.

UVB-76 has since been moved, and has seen a flurry of other activity over the airwaves. But the the idea is as simple as it is low-tech: a radio transmitting on a set frequency that would serve as the cue to fire everything at everyone if it ever stopped. There's no top-secret technology to it, either; you can pick up UVB-76 on just about any conventional radio receiver if you know what you're looking for. North Korea already have nuclear devices, so it stands to reason that they have radio technology. It wouldn't be hard to set up a fail-deadly with it.

 

[arora]

If we wanted to attack NK, which we don't, we would not be deterred by a reverse ninja kill switch.

It's not that hard to understand.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

If we wanted to attack NK, which we don't,

Who says it's going to come down to what you want? North Korea has threatened that going ahead with next month's military drills will start a war. So what happens if America goes through with those training missiles, and North Korea fires a conventional - ie, non-nuclear - missile on an American warship in the region, which is itself an act of war?

we would not be deterred by a reverse ninja kill switch.

And if you knew that that "reverse ninja kill switch" would result in a nuclear device being fired Seoul or Tokyo or Beijing or all three, would you be deterred then?

Sure, the North wouldn'y be at war with the South, Japan or China, but they believe that America is the enemy of the world. If they thought there was a chance that America could beat them in an armed conflict, then don't you think it's possible that they might target a city so that America has the mother of all problems to deal with even after the North is gone?

 

[arora]

NK is not the old Soviet Union by a long shot. We will continue to use Reagan type tactics only on steroids, China's role has changed(economic mostly), and we have some friendly European nations willing to trade and educate NK.

These three pressures and guidance will get NK on the right track way before they will go nuclear. Maybe you want a world war to prove your theories correct, maybe you simply over estimate their capabilities and craziness.

Whatever, their threats and tests mean very little imo, and most others op's as well.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Whatever, their threats and tests mean very little imo, and most others op's as well.

Well, I'm glad you're not formulating military strategy, then. Even if the possibility of North Korea firing a nuclear missile at a city like Beijing as retailiation for America attacking Pyongyang is about as remote a possibility as it could be, it's still a scenario that any strategist would need to consider and plan for in case it comes to pass. Because it's not going to look good if it actually did happen and America admitted that they never considered it because they didn't think it was likely.

 

[arora]

It's possible some guy who calls himself prisonermonkeys threatens nuclear launch as well, we do have intel you know, sorta like how China does.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Intelligence isn't infallible. Remember how the invasion of Iraq was justified by intelligence claiming Saddam Hussein had been developing chemical weapons? And remember how no chemical weapons were found in Iraq at all?

I'm not saying that North Korea firing a missile on a city in retaliation for being attacked is a likely scenario. But implausible does not equal impossible. It is something that would be planned for, even if those plans are never needed or used in any way. And what does it cost? A few hundred thousand dollars to investigate the possibility, and to pay someone to come up with a strategy to prevent that from happening? Balance that against the cost of dismissing it outright and then seeing it happen - however slight the possibility of that happening might be - which could be the deaths of tens of millions of innocent people. If it's really so expensive that you simply can't afford to come up with a plan, how do you afford to keep your nuclear aircraft carriers running?

 

[arora]

Like I said, we don't want to invade NK. I get the feeling you will just chase your tail around and till you feel right, so I'll give you a cookie

 

[Dotini]

If we wanted to attack NK, which we don't, we would not be deterred by a reverse ninja kill switch.

I think South Korea is making preparations, including overt wargames together with US forces and Japan, to preemptively attack North Korea.

The introduction of IRBMs and drones into the mix is making this more doable, and hence more likely, as is the "strategic pivot" of the US from the Mideast to the Pacific. Shockingly, the North Koreans may actually think the US intends to attack them. http://www.cnbc.com/id/100485930

You know in your heart that (1) the US loves the game of regime change, and (2) at the end of the day might makes right.

If I were young and in love with Earth and its humanity, I might be the least bit worried about war, nukes and the fate of human rights. But, being old and cynical with one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel, I will not protest, march and complain like I used to, but simply put my feet up and enjoy the best available entertainment. In season that is NASCAR and the Game of Thrones. But perhaps the USMC and Korean artillery barrages can improve upon that?

Respectfully yours,
Steve

 

[Dennisch]

For the entertainment part of all this, I do hope that if poop goes down in North Korea we get wide spread coverage. In HD. With Dolby.

 

[arora]

I think SK specifically has stepped up preparations, and yes US and Japan are helping, I don't think it's for a preemptive attack however. It's in response to the uncertainty of the leadership change in NK along with launching of loopy satellites and detonating underground firecrackers.

What North Koreans actually think is we are stepping up our political attack and they would be correct. That news story you linked I do not give much credit to, it might say cnbc(suspect to begin with), but follow the links and find the source.

You know in your heart that (1) the US loves the game of regime change, and (2) at the end of the day might makes right.

You know me well enough to make that statement, and of course you are correct. However in this case I just don't see it happening, we may be imperial but we have a bit of sense.

I don't know this "strategic pivot" term but all my marbles are in the Africa basket, that is where we want to be, and do what we do best. We started with Libya and are rapidly moving south. Much more important then NK imo and a larger part of our tussle with China.

I'm gonna stick with my thoughts that China definitely does not want to see NK regime fall(with good reason) and we don't either. No way we just jump in that can of worms. We want to grind them down the same way we did with Russia and that is what we will keep trying to do.

 

[MarinaDiamandis]

Intelligence isn't infallible. Remember how the invasion of Iraq was justified by intelligence claiming Saddam Hussein had been developing chemical weapons? And remember how no chemical weapons were found in Iraq at all?

Actually, they were. Both weapons and chemical labs. Wikileaks revealed this.

Nutter with chemical weapons and ballistic missiles? No thanks.

 

[Johnnypenso]

Intelligence isn't infallible. Remember how the invasion of Iraq was justified by intelligence claiming Saddam Hussein had been developing chemical weapons? And remember how no chemical weapons were found in Iraq at all?

Not according to WikiLeaks http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/201...nt-continued-in-iraq-with-surprising-results/

 

[Matthew77258]

Well, North Korea are very cranky.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/storie...ME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2013-03-07-04-25-12

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) -- North Korea is vowing a pre-emptive nuclear strike against the United States. The harsh rhetoric Thursday comes hours ahead of a vote by U.N. diplomats on whether to level new sanctions against Pyongyang for its recent nuclear test.

An unidentified spokesman for Pyongyang's Foreign Ministry said the North will exercise its right for "pre-emptive nuclear strikes on the headquarters of the aggressors" because Washington is pushing to start a nuclear war against the North.

Such inflammatory rhetoric is common from North Korea. But it has been coming regularly in recent days. North Korea is angry over the possible sanctions and over upcoming U.S.-South Korean military drills.

 

[Hayden]

The thought that somewhere in the world stands an angry little man with enough weaponry to end the world as we know it absolutely terrifies me. Matthew's quote is a direct threat to America, so why the hell isn't the most powerful military in the world doing anything about it?

The fact that we've made it to this point and North Korea is still standing really makes me wonder what they need to do to be taken seriously. We know they have the weapons. The threat is valid and real. UN sanctions don't bother these guys and all they seem to understand and want is violence.

I know it's a very complex political situation but when a country literally threatens to start a nuclear war, i think it's time to put down the pen and pick up the sword.

 

[ITCC_Andrew]

What can America do, that's not going to further infuriate, frustrate, and ultimately threaten the North Koreans into something worse than threats?

For now, it's all "he says, she says, I've got a bigger nuclear arsenal, so I can attack, but, I won't, unless you provoke me." There's no danger in backing up, and trying to slow it down, and calm people down. There's more danger in throwing nuclear missiles around like volleyballs, and invading countries like homeless people into a homeless shelter.

If we force our hand, or if they force their hand... Something's gotta give. And, when anyone's talking about "giving," the other words I really don't want to see are "surprise," "nuclear," "pre-emptive," and/or "explosion."

"Giving a surprise nuclear, pre-emptive explosion" is quite the catch phrase, though.

 

[Touring Mars]

The thought that somewhere in the world stands an angry little man with enough weaponry to end the world as we know it absolutely terrifies me. Matthew's quote is a direct threat to America, so why the hell isn't the most powerful military in the world doing anything about it?

Probably because doing something about it now is the greater of two evils. If North Korea is attacked/invaded, it will certainly use its existing weapons to create devastation - most likely in South Korea - but potentially further afield. If North Korea is not attacked, then any attack by North Korea will be met with total international condemnation and they will be wiped out. Either way, it doesn't end well for them. The only difference is whether or not North Korea can justifiably claim the right to retaliate - if it is attacked/invaded, then it can; if it isn't, then it can't. In any case, North Korea could (and might) decide to kill millions of innocent people for the hell of it, but I don't see that happening when there remains other options still available.

 

[Scaff]

The thought that somewhere in the world stands an angry little man with enough weaponry to end the world as we know it absolutely terrifies me. Matthew's quote is a direct threat to America, so why the hell isn't the most powerful military in the world doing anything about it?

Because threats from NK are not exactly something new, nor are they even uncommon.

The fact that we've made it to this point and North Korea is still standing really makes me wonder what they need to do to be taken seriously. We know they have the weapons. The threat is valid and real. UN sanctions don't bother these guys and all they seem to understand and want is violence.

No the threat is not Valid and real right now. NK have launched long range missiles (with a wildly varying degree of success - mainly a lack of it) and they have carried out three nuclear tests. However joining those two together to actually manufacturer a missile with a small enough warhead that could actually land on US soil (let alone Washington) is not currently within the capabilities of NK.

UN sanctions do most certainly bother them (as does the threat of the withdrawal of food aid) which is exactly why they are making this noise. They don't want the sanctions, however they can actually do very little about it other than shout.

I know it's a very complex political situation but when a country literally threatens to start a nuclear war, i think it's time to put down the pen and pick up the sword.

Which will resolve what exactly?

Everyone on the face of the planet knows that NK can't follow through with this threat, and acting preemptively would risk drawing China into it and we end up back in the '50's (you know the last Korean war - the one that technically is still going on). Sanctions are having an effect, increased media access for the NK citizens is working (down load and read the info I posted on this a while ago) and China is loosing a degree of patience they have with the regime.

Right now going in guns blazing is exactly the wrong thing to do.

 

[Hayden]

But that isn't what they're saying mate. North Korea stated that if the US and South Korea do training drills together,'pre-emptive strikes on the headquarters of the aggressors' will be launched. That isn't nonsensical willy waving. it's a downright statement.

I know that America went to the Middle East when the possibilities that Iraq may have had WMDs arose... Yet they know for sure that North Korea has nuclear missiles pointed at them and all they do is try to be democratic. If that was going to work, it would've done so by now. I fear that one day i'll wake up to see that America is at war after North Korea decided to release their arsenal.

I honestly think that this whole situation is going to end in war eventually. I also think that by throwing the first punch, the US could massively reduce casualties. Whether that punch consists of a missile, drone, strike team or fully fledged invasion is down to people far more qualified than myself. But it needs to happen soon.

Edit: Wow that was quick. I feel that i better stress that i certainly don't envy the decision makers on this matter nor am i saying it's an easy or inconsequential move to make. It can clearly go very, very wrong extremely quickly. How many more times can they keep threatening before physical action is taken, was my question. Sorry i haven't replied to you guys individually but it'd probably take all night and will end in me completely annihilated by people more knowledgeable than myself. (As below)
At least i got people talking i guess

 

[Scaff]

But that isn't what they're saying mate. North Korea stated that if the US and South Korea do training drills together,'pre-emptive strikes on the headquarters of the aggressors' will be launched. That isn't nonsensical willy waving. it's a downright statement.

You seem to be utterly unaware that NK threatens this every time the US and SK hold exercises, it is not anything new at all.

2 years ago: https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&r...EsEiP4qWNT0BolmMVEqPDQQ&bvm=bv.43287494,d.aWc
Some Ballons: https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&r...pdmhZ2do5BWoCZinA38dL7A&bvm=bv.43287494,d.aWc
Three Years ago: https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&r...-h-SLWnPnDzU-xdW8vpvQqQ&bvm=bv.43287494,d.aWc

Nothing new at all.

I know that America went to the Middle East when the possibilities that Iraq may have had WMDs arose... Yet they know for sure that North Korea has nuclear missiles pointed at them and all they do is try to be democratic. If that was going to work, it would've done so by now. I fear that one day i'll wake up to see that America is at war after North Korea decided to release their arsenal.

Can you please provide me with one source that proves that NK have a nuclear missile ready and aimed at the US and capable of hitting it.

They do not have this capability, it doesn't matter what they claim, they can't do it currently.

Oh and that 'arsenal' consist of at most 6-8 low grade weapons that can not be used within missile delivery systems at all, which would mean a bomber would have to fly it to the target. Fairly safe bet that if a NK plane breaks airspace its not going to last long over SK or Japan, let alone make it to the US. Seriously, please actually check what you are taking about before making claims of ICBM's aimed at the US and SK by NK, claims that don't hold up at all.

I honestly think that this whole situation is going to end in war eventually. I also think that by throwing the first punch, the US could massively reduce casualties. Whether that punch consists of a missile, drone, strike team or fully fledged invasion is down to people far more qualified than myself. But it needs to happen soon.

Well its been going on since the 50's without it happening so far and it most certainly doesn't need to happen soon unless you want the US fighting China.

 

[Dotini]

Right now going in guns blazing is exactly the wrong thing to do.

👍
When things get shaky, it's the right time to listen to the voice of calm and reason.

The most powerful man in the world, Barack Obama, is fortunately by nature a cautious, manipulative and dithering sort of man. His new SecDef Chuck Hegel is similarly prudence and caution oriented. Backstage, we have the Secretary of Thugs, Bill Richardson, and Ambassador Dennis Rodman.

With this team against one angry little man, what can possibly go wrong?

Respectfully,
Steve