North Korea, Sanctions, and Kim Jong-un

[arora]

Basically, everything that arora doesn't say seems right.

Please elaborate.

 

[ITCC_Andrew]

I rarely ever want to agree with prisonermonkeys; he's a bit stubborn/high-strung, as people have said many times.

But, when he's right, I have to admit it, whether I want to or not.

I've never spoken to a North Korean. You've never spoken to a North Korean. I know that because we're both in North America, (or perhaps Canada) and that means that there are only three or four North Koreans in the country.

I remember seeing a documentary about North Korea, where normal people went there... Legally. Anyways, I think it's called "Departures." It showed both sides of the DMZ... And the 8000 (iirc) soldiers per kilometer, defending the borders, on both sides! () you imagine escaping from a country with security like that. The Soviets have 8 people per kilometer at the Berlin Wall (2 people every 250 meters,) and only something like 100,000 people were able to escape. Now, multiply the defenders, by a factor of 10. Seriously, it's basically impossible to escape North Korea.

My old neighbours were Cuban. That normally means that they had to escape. They didn't tell me, I never asked. Though they convinced me to learn Spanish, I never wanted to bother them about how they left Cuba. But, even Cuba's hard to escape. And, Cuba doesn't even really have much border patrol. Not compared to North Korea...

Just as a question of logistics, it's basically impossible to escape. Then, add in a trip on the Pacific Ocean, and a bunch of angry neighbours... Suddenly, it's not looking like thousands are escaping. Thousands didn't escape East Germany, with 10 times fewer guards, and no river/ocean to cross. The Berlin Wall was just a wall, with 8 guards per kilometer. Now, North Korea... 8000 per kilometer, millions of troops ready to pour across the border at a moment's notice... And a big ocean, you're not likely to ever meet a North Korean.

 

[arora]

So there was a point in time where I posted escaping from NK was easy? Don't confuse the silly hill billy now.

 

[ITCC_Andrew]

Point is: I don't have time to read through all of the back-and-forth between you, a6m5, and prisonermonkeys. "Ain't nobody got time for that." Prisonermonkeys is already known for being stubborn, almost as much as I'm known for being repetitive. Then, throw in a big argument about a small country throwing nuclear punches above its weight class, about a big topic, you've got a ridiculous argument that does nothing but take away from the purpose of the thread; to discuss North Korea. Not the number of people escaping, not what ever the last 500+ argument posts were on about.

Final note: "Ain't nobody got time" to deal with you, a6m5, and prisonermonkeys. I work 10 hour days, I like coming home to interesting opinions and funny fail video/DCMA claims. I don't like coming home to x number of posts.

 

[arora]

We are not having a big argument, we are having a discussion. Sure there is some times where one or the other(always monkey ) want's to be superior, but we let it slide.

I'm still asking though and I'm going to hold you to it, what exactly does it mean "everything that arora says is wrong"

 

[ITCC_Andrew]

I'm too tired for this. I got you and a6m5 mixed up. And, what's worse, I'd rather sleep than bother with this anymore. Good, ummm, early morning?

 

[arora]

I see, I'm sure he can speak for himself then.

 

[Encyclopedia]

"North Korea carries out biggest nuclear test"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21421841

 

[Crispy]

It seems like they will sense any foreign sanctions as an act of war.

It should be time that Obama steps up and makes other countries our bitches. "Oh, you will treat them as an act of war? Do you want a country left, then do as I say."

 

[G.T.Ace]

Looks like they just lost China as their last ally, which means they're only dangerous when doing a first strike. That was not a clever tactical decision at all.

 

[Blitz24]

Looks like they just lost China as their last ally, which means they're only dangerous when doing a first strike. That was not a clever tactical decision at all.

They still have Iran and Pakistan as allies. Iran will look at this opportunity to have an excuse to go to war with the United States.

 

[Furinkazen]

They still have Iran and Pakistan as allies. Iran will look at this opportunity to have an excuse to go to war with the United States.

Iran + North Korea, allies? Really? Knowing that China and the USA both are a little pissed with you would kinda make me back down. The Iranians are not quite as vocal and random and tbh stupid as the North Koreans, who are threatening for the sake if it.

 

[Blitz24]

Iran + North Korea, allies? Really? Knowing that China and the USA both are a little pissed with you would kinda make me back down. The Iranians are not quite as vocal and random and tbh stupid as the North Koreans, who are threatening for the sake if it.

They did share technology. Not sure if Iran would "defend" North Korea if push came to shove though.

 

[cphbullet]

"North Korea carries out biggest nuclear test"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21421841

Thats pretty worrying, i wonder what the state response would be if Obama turned round and said 'fine this is us in no way being hostile, do as you want with your program, make your missiles leave us alone and eff off'.

 

[a6m5]

I'm too tired for this. I got you and a6m5 mixed up. And, what's worse, I'd rather sleep than bother with this anymore. Good, ummm, early morning?

I don't get it. Am I being challenged to a debate or something? If so, about what?

By skimming through the exchanges between you & arora, are you basically stating that "a6m5" is wrong, and "prisonermonkeys", is right?

Sorry, I don't think I'm getting the point of this?

Edit: OK, I think I see what brought it on.

Then, throw in a big argument about a small country throwing nuclear punches above its weight class, about a big topic, you've got a ridiculous argument that does nothing but take away from the purpose of the thread;

I apologize if you consider the discussion off-topic(it ended a week ago). I thought it was a related discussion, but I certainly see where you are coming from. I suggest next time, just report it to the moderator. Ultimately, it is not our place to decide if the discussion should be halted, moved, etc. This is why Admins & mods get paid the big bucks.

 

[McLaren]

I rarely ever want to agree with prisonermonkeys; he's a bit stubborn/high-strung, as people have said many times.

But, when he's right, I have to admit it, whether I want to or not.

I've never spoken to a North Korean. You've never spoken to a North Korean. I know that because we're both in North America, (or perhaps Canada) and that means that there are only three or four North Koreans in the country.

Let's do some research next time, please.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/12/nyregion/12koreans.html?_r=0

In the United States, there are 99 North Korean refugees, the State Department said. More North Korean immigrants have received visas to come to the United States, but their ranks are still sparse — only 1,293 since 1992. There are perhaps several hundred living in the city illegally, advocates say. The largest group may be ethnic North Koreans who hail from the Chinese side of the mountainous border, said Steven Choi, an advocate for Korean immigrants.

There were 99 refugees alone at the time of this report in 2010 & there are more than likely a couple hundred more illegally in the country. Even your country has a fair share of them.

On topic, it appears China is losing patience with its ally, but trying to play the peace maker with everyone.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/12/us-korea-north-idUSBRE91B04820130212

China, which has shown signs of increasing exasperation with the recent bellicose tone of its reclusive neighbor, summoned the North Korean ambassador in Beijing and protested sternly, the Foreign Ministry said.

Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi said China was "strongly dissatisfied and resolutely opposed" to the test and urged North Korea to "stop any rhetoric or acts that could worsen situations and return to the right course of dialogue and consultation as soon as possible".

Analysts said the test was a major embarrassment to China, which is a permanent member of the Security Council and North Korea's sole major economic and diplomatic ally.

 

[a6m5]

Relationship between China & North Korea is not straightforward though. China repeatedly play this role of more responsible older brother in these conflict, but expectedly, right after criticizing & threatening of slowing trades, aids, numbers in trades & aids actually keep growing.

It's almost like Israel & the U.S. U.S. criticize Israel, tell them to take it easy, but at the end of the day, they are the strongest of allies. Big dog say something(be it U.S. or China), we think something might happen, but nothing ever does.

 

[Crash]

I remember seeing a documentary about North Korea, where normal people went there... Legally. Anyways, I think it's called "Departures." It showed both sides of the DMZ... And the 8000 (iirc) soldiers per kilometer, defending the borders, on both sides! () you imagine escaping from a country with security like that. The Soviets have 8 people per kilometer at the Berlin Wall (2 people every 250 meters,) and only something like 100,000 people were able to escape. Now, multiply the defenders, by a factor of 10. Seriously, it's basically impossible to escape North Korea.

People go to North Korea legally all the time. They happen to just mostly be Chinese and Russian.

There are large swaths of wilderness area on the border between China and North Korea. The hard part isn't actually crossing the border, instead it's getting to the border undetected, and then after crossing, evading the patrols and being able to make your way to an embassy in Beijing that will give you asylum while not speaking an ounce of Chinese; that's what kills.

Just as a question of logistics, it's basically impossible to escape. Then, add in a trip on the Pacific Ocean, and a bunch of angry neighbours... Suddenly, it's not looking like thousands are escaping. Thousands didn't escape East Germany, with 10 times fewer guards, and no river/ocean to cross. The Berlin Wall was just a wall, with 8 guards per kilometer. Now, North Korea... 8000 per kilometer, millions of troops ready to pour across the border at a moment's notice... And a big ocean, you're not likely to ever meet a North Korean.

The only way to escape North Korea is to go through China or Russia. China returns the escapees that are caught; if they didn't, I think we would see a lot more successful escapes, and probably more attempts. Also, only the DMZ has that high of a concentration of troops. The border between North Korea and China is much lighter manned.

Another thing, the Berlin Wall isn't just a tall wall. It's actually two walls, an outer wall and a inner wall. Between the two walls is a the Death Strip, where guards do patrols, and barbed wire and other anti escape devices are installed. There are also regulations on how close East Berliners could even come to the inner wall.

They did share technology. Not sure if Iran would "defend" North Korea if push came to shove though.

I agree on this. If there's war in North Korea, and Iran does anything to "defend" them, I think that would give enough countries pretext to attack them, and I doubt Iran wants to be attacked.

And honestly, what's Iran going to do? Lob a few missiles over at Israel to show alliance with North Korea? I can see Iran shipping NK missiles and weapons, but other than that, Iran and the Middle East to too far away for them to be actively militarily involved if war broke out.

Relationship between China & North Korea is not straightforward though. China repeatedly play this role of more responsible older brother in these conflict, but expectedly, right after criticizing & threatening of slowing trades, aids, numbers in trades & aids actually keep growing.

I think there are two important paradigms that drive the Chinese-North Korean relationship. One is China's desire to use North Korea as a pawn, while at the same time the overwhelming desire for stability, not intrinsically for North Korea's sake, but for China's own sake.

A lot of what China does with trade and aid does prop up the Kim government, however, it knows that after 60 years, without the Kim government, North Korea would be in chaos, and it could be a disaster. Many refugees will end up crossing into China, refugees that China doesn't want to spend money on or deal with. China has to help any mass exodus of refugees though because denying any help would be a major embarrassment. That then raises the question of what would happen to these refugees? Does the Chinese government simply put them in camps on the border? Does it let them go to the cities and find jobs? Does it give them land and let them settle? Rather than this scenario, China prefers the stability of a slightly crazy government, so that China can deal with them on their own terms and on their own time.

Over the past 20 years, I think China has become decreasingly enamored with North Korea. At this point, China tolerates North Korea because they are right on the border, and they have to, rather than wanting to be playmates with them. I think it would be a mistake to assume China is looking out for North Korea's interests, at least ones that don't align with Chinese interests.

I would call the Chinese-North Korean alliance uneasy and forced at best.

 

[Clark]

As much as this all may seem like war-mongering from NK to some people. The moment they do anything hostile and for example launch a nuke at somebody, it'd be blown out the of the sky before the world even knew about it and NK would have the whole world (well most of the developed world) ready to attack before you can say 'Kim Jong-un'.

 

[ITCC_Andrew]

I just don't want to read 2 pages worth of "back-and-forth," when my biggest concerns are "will they blow us up, or not?"

I could care less if some North Koreans escape. But, a6m5 was saying that thousands of people are escaping. Your research, McLaren, proved him wrong. So, congratulations, unhappily, prisonermonkeys, on being more correct. Now stop blabbering. Please.

 

[Submerged]

With Crash statement of China playing the big brother to North Korea, this is needed. Most of what Crash has stated for China's reasons are reasonable.

The main one would be refugees. The Chinese government and society wouldn't really be able to cope with handling a massive influx of people into the country from the north side, as it would just basically drive out the Chinese people who are already living there, out of work and into more poverty (as the immigrants would work for far less money than the current residence there) and the government would also have to support the now out of work residents and also somehow support (in part) the new immigrants to the region.

I think that China wants North Korea to be relatively stable and be able to stand on its own two feet reasonably well, but it realises that at times, North Korea has a complete loss of reality at times and isn't sure quite what it can do to pacify them. China doesn't want NK to start a nuclear war, neither does it want NK to fight the South Koreans (Even though that could potentially help China's economy with electronics) as that would just make the region very unstable.

There seems to be quite a few column inches in China at the moment with the North Koreans, although I can't read it all in detail (yet).

 

[a6m5]

None of you guys are bring up another big reason for all this game China is playing though: They don't want the U.S. influence on Korean Peninsula right at China's doorstep.

China-North Korea alliance, arguably, the whole Korean War goes back to China wanting U.S. far away from them as possible.

I just don't want to read 2 pages worth of "back-and-forth," when my biggest concerns are "will they blow us up, or not?"

I could care less if some North Koreans escape. But, a6m5 was saying that thousands of people are escaping. Your research, McLaren, proved him wrong. So, congratulations, unhappily, prisonermonkeys, on being more correct. Now stop blabbering. Please.

Again, I really don't think you are in position to play moderator. I don't mean any offense, but if you feel that we are going off-topic with these side discussion, report us!

 

[Dan_]

They still have Iran and Pakistan as allies. Iran will look at this opportunity to have an excuse to go to war with the United States.

Pakistan is a close ally to the US, I presume they would probably not side with North Korea on the issue. Iran on the other hand could very well be supporting the North Koreans, though I doubt they would ever declare war on the USA.

North Korea is now playing russian roulette, consensus between NATO members is imminent. If the US is in a bad mood and the chinese and russians wash their hands, the little fantasy state is done for and we might see some possibility of Korean reunification in the foreseeable future.

 

[a6m5]

But, a6m5 was saying that thousands of people are escaping. Your research, McLaren, proved him wrong.

I searched(Bing) for 'north korean defectors numbers'. I'll just pick out the top-3 results.

Top result was the Wikipedia. Numbers seems to indicate thousands.

Second hit was a story about how the number of defectors this year(2012) dropped by 50% from the previous year. Only 1400 defected this year, which was down from 2,737 in 2011. Just in two years, numbers seem to add up to in thousands.

Third one was a story with headline that reads "Number of North Korean Defectors to South Korea Tops 20,000"

I realize that you consider this discussion to be off-topic, and I apologize for bringing this up one more time. However, this is the second time you mentioned my name with the claim that I was wrong about estimating the number of defectors to be in the thousands. I just wanted to set the record straight, and I will be out of your way.

 

[McLaren]

I could care less if some North Koreans escape. But, a6m5 was saying that thousands of people are escaping. Your research, McLaren, proved him wrong. So, congratulations, unhappily, prisonermonkeys, on being more correct. Now stop blabbering. Please.

My research does nothing of that sort. It was posted in response to your exaggeration & only included the US.

If a6m5 indeed said there are thousands escaping, then he's correct. China alone says they deport hundreds a year back to N. Korea, but like all countries with illegal immigrants, the chances are high there's a lot more than the ones they catch. Thailand reported gets 500-600 a year as well, & only deports 15-20% of them.

Now take into consideration, this. Most of the countries who do catch illegal N. Koreans never actually deport them back to N. Korea. Instead, they typically send them to S. Korea. And because S. Korea's govt. is very keen on the unification of Korean people, they let them stay. They claim they have received over 24,000 refugees since 1953 with the following past 5 years:
2008 - 2,809
2009 - 2,927
2010 - 2,379
2011 - 2,737
2012 - 1,509

That's just the N. Koreans who got caught & sent south. I suspect there are easily a 1,000 more out there in other countries hiding.

 

[Lizard]

The thing about all this is it may be aimed at Japan.
China is allied to North Korea and China hates Japan at this present moment. The US needs to defend Japan as it is their first response to any Asian crisis.

 

[Scaff]

Interesting document on the spread of outside media in NK and its effect on those using it....

http://audiencescapes.org/sites/default/files/A_Quiet_Opening_FINAL_InterMedia.pdf


...exploiting this, many believe is the best way to undermine the NK government.

 

[ITCC_Andrew]

Darn, they pay less for MP3 players than I do!

 

[Starscream94]

The Nuclear launch is pretty dam scary. North Korea themselves stated they are not afraid of War and effectively declared the United States as the enemy of the Korean people. All and all seems pretty scary. After all the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, we might be on the verge of another campaign, just more severe this time with Korea's Nuclear ambitions.

China in a way is in a dilemma. North Korea has been a strong ally of theirs despite their irrational sense of reality, whilst the USA owes China mass amounts of debt. If war did come to be, I think China in their right mind would side with America than North Korea. In the long term their Economic will be more valuable than saving an irrational state that's realistically unwilling to change or even adapt to modern circumstances. Thus, China is in a dilemma between the USA and Korea if anything did come to be, it would be the USA receiving a helping hand. However, I am sure China will like to avoid anything serious if it did occur. As they have vaster interests in both countries.

 

[McLaren]

The thing about all this is it may be aimed at Japan.
China is allied to North Korea and China hates Japan at this present moment. The US needs to defend Japan as it is their first response to any Asian crisis.

China isn't going to let N. Korea attack Japan in any way just because they have some territorial disputes.