North Korea, Sanctions, and Kim Jong-un
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Thanks for the links Scaff, very interesting reading. It's a topic that I am admittedly not as knowledgeable about than those in directly affected countries or who follow the story closely. For example, it's worth noting that this..
It's also a good point you raise about China's loyalty to the North. While they seem to be loosing patience with them, they are still a strong ally. Obviously the possible Chinese response is a strong reasons why nothing has yet been carried out.
Well, i guess it's fair to say that we won't be seeing an American invasion anytime soon, or a North Korean launch for that matter.
@Cam- I feel exactly the same way.
Is complete news to me. I honestly thought these guys had intercontinental missile tech figured out. Maybe they aren't the threat they build themselves up to be through media.
It's also a good point you raise about China's loyalty to the North. While they seem to be loosing patience with them, they are still a strong ally. Obviously the possible Chinese response is a strong reasons why nothing has yet been carried out.
Well, i guess it's fair to say that we won't be seeing an American invasion anytime soon, or a North Korean launch for that matter.
@Cam- I feel exactly the same way.
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- 33,155
- Hammerhead Garage
But what is unusual is when the South takes the latest round of threats seriously:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-03-07/south-korea-issues-warning-over-north-threat/4557422
I'm guessing that the North's newfound aggression stems from the way the South have a brand-new President - Park Geun-hye only took office two weeks ago - and so they want to be seen as the stronger country.
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This is hardly unusual either. North Korea sabre-rattle... South Korea respond. Rinse and repeat.
That said, the current circumstances are unique, albeit with many similarities to previous circumstances... DPRK now have proven nuclear abilities - yet no credible delivery method to really threaten the US (but SK and Japan are within striking distance) - but, counter that with the fact that China and even Russia are growing increasingly tired of and uncomfortable with their belligerent ally/neighbour, and you have a stalemate - a new one, but still a stalemate as before. Basically, DRPK have nothing but their nuclear capability to bargain with, and picking a nuclear fight with the US is never, ever going to end well for any one - China and Russia know that, hence the only credible solution is to persuade (or even force) the DPRK to chill out and forget about trying to bring down 'the great Satan'... and, while they are at it, maybe refocus their efforts and money on building a decent country/economy for their own people rather than squandering their cash on a fight they cannot win.
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Just a tip for Americans looking for some interesting news options - including a lot of coverage on North Korea...
NHK World - Newsline - from Japan.
A lot of PBS stations air this programme, half hour long - some have it on a few times a day (current - not the same news reports - they have a few a day)
My local PBS station (which I get over the air - I don't have cable tv), airs it at least twice a day - usually at 11am & 11pm.
It's a news service specifically started for Japanese traveling to other countries on business & such - like it's available in hotels & by subscription internet I believe. But PBS shows it also.
It's in English, and it's news of Asia, by Asians, centered in Japan with Japanese anchors, with correspondents around Asia, including South Korea & even Australia, Thailand, etc.
I think it's interesting to get some news from Asia that doesn't necessarily get the attention of U.S. media. And obviously North Korea's been a hot topic especially lately.
Oh, but they do have a weather segment. However it's at the end of the programme, so you could just skip that anyway. It's also kind of funny because they cover the weather over the entire globe in about 5 minutes or less.
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It's one thing to repsond verbally and diplomatically. It's another thing entirely for the South to start camouflauging buses and trains.
I am, however, curious as to what has set them off this time. Military drills, UN sanctions and the election of a new president in the South are hardly anything new, and while they usually attract aggressive rhetoric from the North, I haven't seen anything like this for years - not even when they shelled a South Korean island so that Kim Jong-un could be seen as a strong leader in the eyes of the North Korean people.
Scaff
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The south's not.....
.....Pyongyang is the capital of NK. So while its been a few years since they have done it, its not new.
The sanctions hit much closer to the ruling elite this time around and boy/god wants to appear strong, threats are pretty much the only card they hold to try and get what they want.
What is far more interesting (as the rhetoric from both North and South is relatively common place) is that China did not abstain from the sanctions vote (as they normally would do) but rather voted for them. If anything send a clear message to NK this will, but it does raise the risk of isolating them even further. However it is the first real action that China has taken to show just how much patience it has lost with the kid on the border.
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I can't believe I misread that. I should know that - one of my favourite activities to do with students when I have Geography is to send them chasing after obscure capital cities. I haven't used Pyongyang yet (the North is too prominent in the news for it to be a challenge), but I should have gotten that one right.
The North has been building up to this for a while now. Sanctions were inevitable when they had a nuclear test, but the North has been promising something drastic for a while now, and the sanctions were only just passed in the past few days.
No, I suspect that what has changed here is the North itself. They've made noise about military drills and presidential elections and UN sanctions before, but this is the first time that they've done it while they have both nuclear weapons and long-range rockets. While their current ability to launch a nuclear device has been questioned, they'll almost certainly be working towards a means of delivering a warhead over long ranges. They've got the Big Nuclear Stick, and now they're going around poking people with it, which would explain their aggression.
I think it's also a sign of how seriously China is taking the situation.
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The North doesn't give two hoots about the UN sanctions. They would do the same thing whether or not they were imposed (if anything the sanctions give them more reason for anti west propaganda).
This all hopefully will just blow over like it has many times before, however as PM said this time is slightly different because North Korea has some level of Nuclear weapons, the west doesn't know how far they are into the process of turning them into a viable attack option however NK can play on the fact we don't know.
This all hopefully will just blow over like it has many times before, however as PM said this time is slightly different because North Korea has some level of Nuclear weapons, the west doesn't know how far they are into the process of turning them into a viable attack option however NK can play on the fact we don't know.
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One of the major new sanctions is a ban on exporting luxury goods to the North. The UN reasons that since the power elite in Pyongyang enjoy these luxuries, starving them of access to them and forcing them to observe a lower quality of life for once might force them to back down.
Why do you think they voted in favour of the sanctions this time? Traditionally, they have abstained from voting, so that once the sanctions are imposed, they can approach Pyongyang with a diplomatic solution. They show the North that they still have a friend - after a fashion - in Beijing, and then convince them to stand down so that the sanctions can be lifted and everything goes back to being the way it was before the North did something to get sanctions in the first place.
But by voting in favour of these sanctions - some of which are the harshest ever imposed on the North - China is effectively showing Pyongyang that they no longer have the patience to pursue a diplomatic option, and that the only way forward is for them to agree to the UN's demands.
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It remains to be seen whether or not these new sanctions will have any more effect than previous/existing ones, given that China is very reluctant to enforce them for fear of a collapse of the state.
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The sanctions (or some form of action) was on the cards from the second that NK said they were going to hold a test, hence the reason why they have been turning up the rhetoric for the last few months.
The as a matter of course also build up the threats when they know the US and South will be holding military exercises, which again they have know about for some time.
They have short and medium range missile systems, but no long range systems in use at all (they have tested them with mixed success), questions also exists about just how well made they are. 25 medium range units they sold to the UAE were mothballed as they all had manufacturing issues that made them unsuitable for use.
While they are certainly working on longer range systems, they don;t have them yet and one advantage the rest of the world has is that in this day and age ICBM tests are not exactly something you can carry out behind closed doors.
They have (comparatively) a very small nuclear stick, and one that currently would require the use of a bomber to deliver to target, as such the concern over this very much is in the future for now.
The most concerning part of this is that China seem to be losing a degree of influence over SK, given that they are the main ones that would have to enforce any sanctions, they do however have the tool now to try and regain that influence. Which would go a way to explaining why they backed the sanctions.
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It depends on how Kim Jong-un reacts to them. Not only are these the most severe sanctions in years, they're also among the first that have been placed on the North since he assumed power. If he handles them wrongly, it could be perceived as weakness among the hardliners in Pyongyang, who might move to overthrow his rule. That could get messy, but at least it would defuse the current situation.
They don't need long-range missiles. Certainly not ICBMs. They've specifically pointed to military drills between America and the South as being what they would consider an act of war, so it stands to reason that if they are going to target anyone, they are going to target those drills. Since those drills are likely to take place within South Korea itself or her territorial waters, they would probably be within range for the North to attack (whether with a nuclear device or conventional weaponry).
The bomb doesn't have to go off for it to be considered an act of war. If they loaded a bomber with a nuclear bomb, and if that bomber was shot down before it could deploy its payload, and if the device was discovered on-board, then it would pretty much be the point of no return, albeit the best-case scenario for the point of no return, since it doesn't involve a nuclear device being set off. There is no way anyone would shoot that bomber down before it left North Korean airspace, and there would be no way for the North to retreive it before the Americans or the South did. So a North Korean bomber with a nuclear device on-board being shot down outside North Korean airspace would be interpreted as the intention to detonate the device, even if it was stopped before it did so. And that would be an act of war.
Scaff
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Nuclear is out at present as they don't have a device capable of being mounted on anything they currently have in the short or medium range. Which would leave conventional missile pointed at SK, which is exactly the direction they are pointed right now and have been for years.
Even the launch of 'warning shots' before, during or after exercises would not be new. The SK's have even been fairly restrained when they have lost troops to NK incidents.
And would be international suicide for the country, with no impact on the 'enemy' for them.
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News and comment this morning from BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21709917#
North Korea says it is scrapping all non-aggression pacts with South Korea, closing its hotline with Seoul and shutting their shared border point.
The announcement follows a fresh round of UN sanctions punishing Pyongyang for its nuclear test last month.
Earlier, Pyongyang said it had a right to carry out a pre-emptive nuclear strike and was pulling out of the armistice that ended the Korean War.
The US said "extreme rhetoric" was not unusual for Pyongyang.
I for one will await actual hostilities before admitting that a state of war exists.
If it does, the North holds a possible trump card with the way their well dug-in heavy artillery zeroes in on Seoul. To lose Seoul at the beginning of a ruinous war is a serious matter to them, I would suppose.
Respectfully submitted,
Steve
North Korea says it is scrapping all non-aggression pacts with South Korea, closing its hotline with Seoul and shutting their shared border point.
The announcement follows a fresh round of UN sanctions punishing Pyongyang for its nuclear test last month.
Earlier, Pyongyang said it had a right to carry out a pre-emptive nuclear strike and was pulling out of the armistice that ended the Korean War.
The US said "extreme rhetoric" was not unusual for Pyongyang.
I for one will await actual hostilities before admitting that a state of war exists.
If it does, the North holds a possible trump card with the way their well dug-in heavy artillery zeroes in on Seoul. To lose Seoul at the beginning of a ruinous war is a serious matter to them, I would suppose.
Respectfully submitted,
Steve
Scaff
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I actually serious doubt that the people who would make the final decision in NK (i.e. the Military) believe that for a second, the puppet running the place might do and some of the population might.
What the North rely on is that no one would strike them first, based on the very simple fact that China would get involved straight away. However were the North to launch an attack I serious doubt that even China would want to get involved and despite the vast number of troops that NK have, they would stand very little real chance in conventional warfare (which is what they are geared up for) against a combination of the US and most of SE Asia.
The single biggest issue with NK is not nuclear, its Chemical and Biological, weapons they are quite open about having and would almost certainly use.
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Joel
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At this point it's hard to be worried about NK's nukes. They'd have to drop it from a plane, and the second it deviates from a standard flight path, a Japanese, American, or South Korean missile or fighter will be there within minutes. An all out war vs. NK would assuredly be over in a matter of days, if not hours. Forget the Americans, Japan and SK could do it themselves (I know Japan can only fight defensively, but I'm sure a nuke outside of NK airspace counts). As Pupik said, the biggest concern is Bio or Chem weapons, I just hope we know where they are and could knock them out before too much damage is done (I say we because Canada would send 4 token CF-18's or something).
NK with no WMD's would be a pretty onesided affair, 1st Gulf War-esque. I just hope the Japanese, SK, and US military know where the bio chem weapons are to minimize the damage. I also don't think China would fight on behalf of NK at this point, I think they'd stay out of it if NK made the first move.
NK with no WMD's would be a pretty onesided affair, 1st Gulf War-esque. I just hope the Japanese, SK, and US military know where the bio chem weapons are to minimize the damage. I also don't think China would fight on behalf of NK at this point, I think they'd stay out of it if NK made the first move.
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There's a reason why the Korean war is still not technically over. Don't underestimate those northerners, especially when they're a brainwashed military state.
A full fledged US invasion would probably still obliterate them, but I think they're more likely to invade Venezuela now than do that.
A full fledged US invasion would probably still obliterate them, but I think they're more likely to invade Venezuela now than do that.
Joel
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NK is using old cold war era decrepit Soviet weapons, compared with Japan, SK, and the US having some of the most technologically advanced armies in the world (especially Japan and the US). Knife to a gun fight. That's why the WMD's are so important, it's their ace in the hole.
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China only really maintain cordial relations with the North for the sake of finding a diplomatic solution every time Pyongyang run off the rails. China doesn't need the North the way the North needs China, so I imagine that there would be certain conditions under which China would not object to a pre-emptive strike on the North. If someone had reason to believe that the North was preparing chemical and biological weapons to launch on a city like Seoul, and if a diplomatic route had failed, China probably wouldn't have any problem with a strike designed to take out that capability. The only thing stopping them from participating in it would be the desire to maintain a relationship with the North so that a solution can be found once the strike is over and the dust has settled. I suspect they have to make a show of reluctance just to convince the North that Beijing is willing to work with them.
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Oh North Korea you!
Video on how it's like living in America, according to North Korea.
Video on how it's like living in America, according to North Korea.
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Oh yeah, for sure of course!! I think the "yummy" is a dead giveaway.
Yep it is.
I just wasn't sure if some were taking it seriously. This is the internet at the end of the day.
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