North Korea, Sanctions, and Kim Jong-un

[Dotini]

I've always been curious as to how Putin views the Korean leader (given his country wraps around China and I believe, borders N. Korea at one tiny point), and the thought of a war so close to the mother land. Would he step in to aid, or would China as the buffer dictate his decisions?

Some have said Russia has supplied NK with support in technology and weaponry, albeit in lesser amounts than China and perhaps Pakistan. This would be because NK acts like a catspaw to scratch, irritate and flummox the Great Satan USA. But likely neither China nor Russia wants a forest of nuclear explosions on its border, with its catspaw laying dead and broken in the aftermath, and they holding the radioactive fallout. So both China and Russia will try to a degree to aid the situation.. But at the end of the day it is up to Kim and Trump to act like responsible adults. If the odds of that are each fifty:fifty, then the overall odds of responsible adult behavior is 50% x 50% = 25%.

"When Barristan the Bold tells you to run, a wise man laces up his boots."
- George RR Martin, A Dance With Dragons, book #5 of A Song of Ice and Fire.

 

[JKgo]

Some have said Russia has supplied NK with support in technology and weaponry, albeit in lesser amounts than China and perhaps Pakistan. This would be because NK acts like a catspaw to scratch, irritate and flummox the Great Satan USA. But likely neither China nor Russia wants a forest of nuclear explosions on its border, with its catspaw laying dead and broken in the aftermath, and they holding the radioactive fallout. So both China and Russia will try to a degree to aid the situation.. But at the end of the day it is up to Kim and Trump to act like responsible adults. If the odds of that are each fifty:fifty, then the overall odds of responsible adult behavior is 50% x 50% = 25%.

"When Barristan the Bold tells you to run, a wise man laces up his boots."
- George RR Martin, A Dance With Dragons, book #5 of A Song of Ice and Fire.

....You certainly have a way with your words there. The Great Satan USA?!

 

[Dennisch]

The Great Satan USA?!

That has been around for quite some time.

 

[TenEightyOne]

That has been around for quite some time.

38 years, Ayatollah Khomeini.

 

[Rage Racer]

I've always been curious as to how Putin views the Korean leader (given his country wraps around China and I believe, borders N. Korea at one tiny point), and the thought of a war so close to the mother land. Would he step in to aid, or would China as the buffer dictate his decisions?

Well, on our media and the opinion of society, North Korea is a pure example of how you should NOT run your state. No disputes here (except for very little amount of Juche regime sympathizers, mostly with extreme left views, but there are some in every country I guess).

But the last thing Russia and China want is nuclear war on their borders and massive flow of refugees. It's not like they'll step in to join the war on either side. But they'll do everything they can to not let that happen.

From what I heard on the TV news, RF and PRC have a proposal: denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. Accordingly to this, DPRK will give up all nuclear weapons it has in posession, and in exchange, United States will stop all military drills in South Korea. However, Pyongyang doesn't seem to agree. Yet.

 

[Blitz24]

Well, on our media and the opinion of society, North Korea is a pure example of how you should NOT run your state. No disputes here (except for very little amount of Juche regime sympathizers, mostly with extreme left views, but there are some in every country I guess).

But the last thing Russia and China want is nuclear war on their borders and massive flow of refugees. It's not like they'll step in to join the war on either side. But they'll do everything they can to not let that happen.

From what I heard on the TV news, RF and PRC have a proposal: denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. Accordingly to this, DPRK will give up all nuclear weapons it has in posession, and in exchange, United States will stop all military drills in South Korea. However, Pyongyang doesn't seem to agree. Yet.

That would be a huge accomplishment. The problem is is where are you going to have deterrents so that North Korea won't just try this again after they get what they want.

 

[JKgo]

....The thing is, though - China is busy butting heads with India over yonder at Bhutan's border right now. It hasn't blown into a proper confrontation yet, but there's been some harsh rhetoric bandied about between the two.

Hypothetically speaking, if Trump decides to preemptively strike while India engage China, will NK's main ally come to their aid? Can they afford to "battle" on two fronts? I wonder.

A quick reminder: before you call for a war, remember the human cost involved. US home soil might "not" be affected, but then again, populace of SK, Japan and China will certainly be. A cavalier, gung-ho attitude is definitely not what this situation requires. "We got more nukes than you" isn't going to make NK and Fat Kim back off. Just my earnest opinion.

Edited to insert the missing word.

 

[Touring Mars]

In another important advance for North Korea, Kim Jong Un appears to have developed the world's longest cigarette.

 

[Rallywagon]

In another important advance for North Korea, Kim Jong Un appears to have developed the world's longest cigarette.

Look at this grins, clearly that is a "straw" and that dish was once full of a white powdery substance....
Which actually might explain some of his behaviour...

 

[Robin]

In another important advance for North Korea, Kim Jong Un appears to have developed the world's longest cigarette.

Kim - "I really must remember to tell that handyman to come and fit these door knobs"

 

[BobK]

From what I heard on the TV news, RF and PRC have a proposal: denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. Accordingly to this, DPRK will give up all nuclear weapons it has in posession, and in exchange, United States will stop all military drills in South Korea. However, Pyongyang doesn't seem to agree. Yet.

There would have to be some enforceable guarantees NK would hold up their end of any bargain, which they historically haven't done. Does anyone remember the billion dollars they were paid not to build a bomb?

 

[kikie]

In another important advance for North Korea, Kim Jong Un appears to have developed the world's longest cigarette.

Clear case of megalomania. Look at the size of that cigarette.

 

[Rallywagon]

That poor little pointer stick is like "wtf did I do in a past life to deserve this."

Honestly though, when do we give up the rhetoric, decide enough is enough and punch the bully in the eye? It would seem in the past that we would only reach that point when they actually dropped a nuke.
I'm no fan of Trump. His lack of tact and his outlandish tirades make all of this country look... I'll just leave it at bad. But, if NK continues to test their arms capabilities and also continues to threaten out allies, I might find myself agreeable... I'd just rather not see them drop a nuke on anyone. It would be terrible to see NK become destabilized. But not as bad as thousands or more dying in a single strike.

 

[CodeRedR51]

But, if NK continues to test their arms capabilities and also continues to threaten out allies, I might find myself agreeable...

It would be nice if the countries in the immediate vicinity of NK take action first. But of course we're the world's police so it has to be us.

 

[Milouse]

But of course we're the world's police so it has to be us.

Well, in that case it's a bit more than that. NK is after the US since the 50's and build its nationalist propaganda around that.

source of pics

 

[McLaren]

Fox News reports Japan will protect Guam.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/08/10/japan-ready-to-protect-guam-defense-minister-says.html

In the event of a North Korean nuclear attack on Guam, Japan’s new defense minister said Thursday that his country’s military could shoot down the missiles before they reach the U.S. territory.

In such a scenario, Japan has the right to activate its Aegis destroyer missile defense system, Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera said during a session of the National Diet, Japan’s parliament.

Any attack against Guam would be considered an existential threat to Japan, the defense minister said, also citing a mutual defense agreement with the United States.

 

[Blitz24]

Fox News reports Japan will protect Guam.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/08/10/japan-ready-to-protect-guam-defense-minister-says.html

Even though I understand why they are doing it, I can't see why Japan is going to defend a leader who would happily throw them to the wolves by the smallest sleight.

 

[McLaren]

Even though I understand why they are doing it, I can't see why Japan is going to defend a leader who would happily throw them to the wolves by the smallest sleight.

The article states that an attack on Guam is much a threat to Japan itself. I'm guessing that by defending Guam, Japan will show the US they have our back & in return, the US will do everything it can to protect Japan as they appear to be the first country in sight of a NK missile.

 

[Blitz24]

The article states that an attack on Guam is much a threat to Japan itself. I'm guessing that by defending Guam, Japan will show the US they have our back & in return, the US will do everything it can to protect Japan as they appear to be the first country in sight of a NK missile.

Still think South Korea is the more likely target. Then Japan.... then I'd actually venture China or Russia because I am hoping that NK is still bumbling.

 

[McLaren]

Still think South Korea is the more likely target. Then Japan.... then I'd actually venture China or Russia because I am hoping that NK is still bumbling.

Un wouldn't be that stupid, surely? That's complete suicide.

 

[ryzno]

On the ODD chance they hit China or Russia first, do y'all think we(America) will respond?

 

[Blitz24]

On the ODD chance they hit China or Russia first, do y'all think we(America) will respond?

While this would qualify as gallows humor, here is a possible response:

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

On the ODD chance they hit China or Russia first, do y'all think we(America) will respond?

Sure, it's enough provocation, but I'm sure China and Russia would be quicker

 

[Rage Racer]

Still think South Korea is the more likely target. Then Japan.... then I'd actually venture China or Russia because I am hoping that NK is still bumbling.

Why?
Unlike Guam, South Korea and Japan, there are no US military bases in China or Russia. Fortunately.
And they are ones of the fewest states that DPRK doesn't consider an enemy.

 

[Robin]

...Guam? China ain't gonna let that happen - I mean, all 'em casinos there are the favourite of Chinese elites. With them all blown up, where would they go for the injection of the illicit thrills? It's not going to happen.

Erm, they all go to Macau. It's pretty much Las Vegas and that's where all the crazy rich mainlanders go.

 

[TheCracker]

Even though I understand why they are doing it, I can't see why Japan is going to defend a leader who would happily throw them to the wolves by the smallest sleight.

If North Korea is going to fire some largely untested (at the distance targeted) missiles over Japan's densely populated islands they have every right to defend their airspace IMO. Guam and the US shouldn't even factor in Japan's decision to do so.

 

[Blitz24]

This morning a Chinese newspaper has stated what the Chinese Government's stance on an NK missile launch at Guam would be.

If NK launches a nuclear missile at Guam, China will be neutral.

If the United States in any way attempts a pre-emptive strike, China will defend NK.

 

[m8h3r]

This morning a Chinese newspaper has stated what the Chinese Government's stance on an NK missile launch at Guam would be.

If NK launches a nuclear missile at Guam, China will be neutral.

If the United States in any way attempts a pre-emptive strike, China will defend NK.

So if NK go first then US retaliate is it ok?

 

[Famine]

Once again, the media talk on this reminds me of The Day Today:

 

[Blitz24]

So if NK go first then US retaliate is it ok?

From the wording I heard this morning on CBS, I believe that it would not be okay. It almost sounds like China will stand for NK regardless of conflict and wants this to be de-escalated diplomatically. This might also be due to the fact that North Korea is deliberately saying they will target Guam (but I saw nothing on them vowing to hit Guam). Rather, drop the missiles just off of Guam. If they miss and hit Guam, I cannot imagine they would change their stance though. They are clear in not wanting a US presence in their area and they don't want a unified Korea to be led by the South.