North Korea, Sanctions, and Kim Jong-un

I can understand why they don't want to make a massive war and unnecessary killings.

However waiting to strike first to show you're in the defensive isn't going to work, especially when they start infiltrating someones space. Do we really need people to be killed before we try to solve the problem?

We reached the point of no return, people are going to die no matter what our approach is, we need to step in and stop this madness instead waiting for them to strike first when both events will lead to same casualties.

That might've sound a bit too heartless there :boggled:
 
So the missle flew not only in the Japanese airspace, but directly above the Japanese territory.
I wonder why the JSDF didn't shoot the missile down (because "there was no threat from it") but the government told the civilians to take cover. Could it be that they actually tried to do it but failed and came up with an excuse like that?

I think they should have shot it down. That would be a strong signal to the DPRK government that further impudent actions won't go unanswered.
 
So the missle flew not only in the Japanese airspace, but directly above the Japanese territory.
I wonder why the JSDF didn't shoot the missile down (because "there was no threat from it") but the government told the civilians to take cover. Could it be that they actually tried to do it but failed and came up with an excuse like that?

The potential debris from shooting it down may have been judged to create a potentially bigger threat to civilians then letting it just pass over.
 
Double edged sword I think. The issue TheCracker presents, and I believe that Japan was worried it might cause an escalation with north Korea. But I think that circles right back to, do you really want to wait until a bomb goes off before doing something about it?
 
Based on what, proximity alone? And you have to be specific about the four Super powers, I know of the three, I wouldn't call S Korea a super power if that's the fourth one you're referring too.

...Looks like you conveniently forgot to read the other half of that particular sentence. And sure, SK might be a small nation, but considering their economic output, it'd be shortsighted to simply dismiss them out of the hand. I mean, it's ranked 11th in 2016 by IMF in GDP alone.

The 4 superpowers I implied, if it wasn't clear to you for some reason, are China, Russia, Japan and the US.
 
I was struggling to think of your fourth too... I'm pretty sure that Japan isn't a "superpower" in any normal definition ;)

The US is the only real one left. Russia, India and China could maybe be classed as. Brazil and 'The EU' too perhaps. Japan just doesn't have enough world-wide influence to be classed as a Superpower.

Exports of Anime and Overnight Parts doesn't make one a Superpower.
 
Really... NK fires missiles over an ally that the the US has an oath to protect, and we squabble over who is and isn't a super power? Sadly, our world leaders are probably doing the same nonsense, leading up to situations like this...
 
So the missle flew not only in the Japanese airspace, but directly above the Japanese territory.
I wonder why the JSDF didn't shoot the missile down (because "there was no threat from it") but the government told the civilians to take cover. Could it be that they actually tried to do it but failed and came up with an excuse like that?

I think they should have shot it down. That would be a strong signal to the DPRK government that further impudent actions won't go unanswered.

Is it possible they calculated the missile trajectory and realized it wasn't a threat? No idea how quickly that sort of thing could be worked out, but maybe the government told civilians to take cover incase they were wrong.
 
I think they should have shot it down. That would be a strong signal to the DPRK government that further impudent actions won't go unanswered.

I think that would be a tactically bad move against a rocket that was going to miss them. It's far better to simulate the defence and learn lessons from that... why demonstrate to NK what you can (or maybe fail to) shoot down?

Is it possible they calculated the missile trajectory and realized it wasn't a threat? No idea how quickly that sort of thing could be worked out....

It will have been worked out many years ago.

...maybe the government told civilians to take cover incase they were wrong.

I imagine they were told to take cover in case the rocket exploded or suddenly altered course. In any case it makes sense to run your civil defence drills in such circumstances. I imagine that civilians going to cover will only have been part of the alert-and-mobilisation.
 
I was struggling to think of your fourth too... I'm pretty sure that Japan isn't a "superpower" in any normal definition ;)

...I disagree - out here in my neck of woods (Africa) there are real, concerted efforts to exert a fair amount of politicial and financial muscle-flexing done by both Japan and China. Not in an equal measure, sure, since no one can really top China and their rather loose open wallet policy towards anyone producing even a modicum of natural resources, but it's still quite noticeable.

Beside the snide remark of anime exports, let us not forget, Japan ranks right behind China in terms of their economic scale, even beating out Russia, India et al in the process. They possess a "defense force" of some sizeable nature, too. I don't really get this underestimation thing going in here.
 
...I disagree - out here in my neck of woods (Africa) there are real, concerted efforts to exert a fair amount of politicial and financial muscle-flexing done by both Japan and China. Not in an equal measure, sure, since no one can really top China and their rather loose open wallet policy towards anyone producing even a modicum of natural resources, but it's still quite noticeable.

Beside the snide remark of anime exports, let us not forget, Japan ranks right behind China in terms of their economic scale, even beating out Russia, India et al in the process. They possess a "defense force" of some sizeable nature, too. I don't really get this underestimation thing going in here.

We'd have to agree to disagree then :)

By the normal definitions of "superpower" even Russia and China struggle to make the grade right now. Japan have nowhere near the diplomatic, fiscal, political or military reach to be in those leagues, and looking through the listed sources in that article I don't seem to be alone in that ;)
 
We'd have to agree to disagree then :)

By the normal definitions of "superpower" even Russia and China struggle to make the grade right now. Japan have nowhere near the diplomatic, fiscal, political or military reach to be in those leagues, and looking through the listed sources in that article I don't seem to be alone in that ;)

...Ah, the technical definitions - how I love thee. No, not really.......

Okay, fine - "Potential" Superpowers, then.

But it is strange to read that Wiki article. In pretty much every articles and op-ed pieces written more recently, the common consensus is that China is indeed the global Superpower with political and financial reaches rivalling that of the US in several key regions. Very strange, that Wiki article....
 
...Looks like you conveniently forgot to read the other half of that particular sentence. And sure, SK might be a small nation, but considering their economic output, it'd be shortsighted to simply dismiss them out of the hand. I mean, it's ranked 11th in 2016 by IMF in GDP alone.

The 4 superpowers I implied, if it wasn't clear to you for some reason, are China, Russia, Japan and the US.

Conveniently? I've noticed lately you don't like to be challenged or have a follow up question to your post, just to remind you it's a forum, no need for an attitude. And clearly it wasn't clear to me and a few others, so yeah...

As for GDP ranking, 11th doesn't constitute them being a super power, most super powers I know of don't rely on other countries to keep the safe, have a DMZ border with a foreign presence 24/7 365 backing them up in case the "enemy" begins invading and so on. So while South Korea may be the Esports capital of the world, I can't think of any thing else that would make them a modern technological super power on par with those who are actual super power around them.
 
The potential debris from shooting it down may have been judged to create a potentially bigger threat to civilians then letting it just pass over.
Maybe. But still.
After leaving the Japanese territory, the missile collapsed into 3 pieces and fell into the sea (edit: they were 2 stages of the carrier and the warhead). What if it crashed earlier? There would be falling objects anyways.

...Looks like you conveniently forgot to read the other half of that particular sentence. And sure, SK might be a small nation, but considering their economic output, it'd be shortsighted to simply dismiss them out of the hand. I mean, it's ranked 11th in 2016 by IMF in GDP alone.

The 4 superpowers I implied, if it wasn't clear to you for some reason, are China, Russia, Japan and the US.
Currently, like our president said. the United States are "the world's only superpower".
Soviet Union was a superpower, but Russian Federation is not.
RF and China are great powers, but not superpowers.

Maybe, you just mean something different by what you called "superpowers".

Double edged sword I think. The issue TheCracker presents, and I believe that Japan was worried it might cause an escalation with north Korea.
So what would DPRK say in response? "Our peaceful missile was flying in your airspace and you, capitalist pigs, violently attacked it"?

Probably, if that happened to Russia, the missile would be shot (there are S-400 Triumph divisions deployed in the region) and later Shoygu would say something like "We didn't shoot down your missile, it's your missile crashed into our missile that was legitmately flying in our own airspace."

I think that would be a tactically bad move against a rocket that was going to miss them. It's far better to simulate the defence and learn lessons from that... why demonstrate to NK what you can (or maybe fail to) shoot down?
Hmm. Still, practice is practice. It would be better to know if there are any failures possible. The harder the training, the easier the fight...

Well, alright. The JSDF command probably know things better than me. They made the decision they considered right and nobody was harmed.

I imagine they were told to take cover in case the rocket exploded or suddenly altered course.
No.
From what I read, the alert was real. Some trains have stopped. If the SDF HQ knew that the missle isn't going to fall on Japan, the people didn't. Many of them were shocked.

Also... I read (in a not so trustworthy source, though) that the missile launched today was something entirely different from before. The older missiles launched by NK are ancient scrap compared to this one. The technology (rocket engines) could have been recieved from Ukraine (as NYT had noted before).
 
Conveniently? I've noticed lately you don't like to be challenged or have a follow up question to your post, just to remind you it's a forum, no need for an attitude.

...Huh. Strange to hear you say that - and I'd like to see the examples of where I've "not liked" challenges or follow up questions. Not here, since that would be off topic and thus a no-no.

As for GDP ranking, 11th doesn't constitute them being a super power,

Quite. I didn't even imply that they were. Rather, it's to point out that they are not some minute no-name country with no standing in the world's economy. In other words, you should not downplay their significance in this matter the way you have tried to in your.... rebuttal post.
 
...Huh. Strange to hear you say that - and I'd like to see the examples of where I've "not liked" challenges or follow up questions. Not here, since that would be off topic and thus a no-no.

Well I just gave one so, if you want more then feel free to pm me.

Quite. I didn't even imply that they were. Rather, it's to point out that they are not some minute no-name country with no standing in the world's economy. In other words, you should not downplay their significance in this matter the way you have tried to in your.... rebuttal post.

Then why bring up the GDP in the first place, and two say "And sure, SK might be a small nation, but considering their economic output, it'd be shortsighted to simply dismiss them out of the hand."

As if this they should be revered as a potential super power or something akin, when they're not remotely close to that. Sure it's great they have export power and aren't by any means a poor nation, but as @TheCracker suggested with Japan, the same extension could be given to S. Korea. And I did give that with the Esports quip.

Also still missing the flash point that you suggested N Korea could be, in a world that seems to point to the middle east as such. Because it's quite a comment, considering the history of the two regions.
 
Maybe. But still.
After leaving the Japanese territory, the missile collapsed into 3 pieces and fell into the sea (edit: they were 2 stages of the carrier and the warhead). What if it crashed earlier? There would be falling objects anyways.

That's why it was such a provocative act by Pyongyang. It was a potential threat to the people of Japan no matter what. You leave it alone - it could malfunction and fall apart over Japan or it's waters. You try and shoot it down when it enters your airspace - debris would fall apart over Japan or it's waters. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
 
Well I just gave one so, if you want more then feel free to pm me.

...So, in other words.... you can't. Alright then. No PM'ing necessary, since we both have lives to live, surely.

Then why bring up the GDP in the first place, and two say "And sure, SK might be a small nation, but considering their economic output, it'd be shortsighted to simply dismiss them out of the hand."

And that's what you have problems with? Really? I've brought GDP into the picture to shore up my point of SK being an integral part of the global economy, and you have an issue with me providing a context? And what "two"? Isn't that me repeating what I've said since you don't seem to agree, initially at least, with my assessment/opinion?

As if this they should be revered as a potential super power or something akin, when they're not remotely close to that. Sure it's great they have export power and aren't by any means a poor nation, but as @TheCracker suggested with Japan, the same extension could be given to S. Korea. And I did give that with the Esports quip.

Strange to see you continue to insist that I've inferred SK as a superpower. Also, you are not saying anything different from before.

Also still missing the flash point that you suggested N Korea could be, in a world that seems to point to the middle east as such. Because it's quite a comment, considering the history of the two regions.

Both regions are dyed in the colours of blood, I agree. However..... while one region has failed to truly stabilise over the past decades due to various factors, the Far East, on the other hand, has become an important global economic hub. Any sudden instability here has enormous potential to upset the balance of the world. In my opinion, of course.

But you might be thinking, why? Simply consider the following - the debts of major global powerhouse nations are in a tangled mess. US owns a great deal of Chinese debt, China owns a great deal of US debt, Russia owns a great deal of Chinese debt, SK owns a great deal of Chinese debt, Japan owns a great deal of SK debt, so and so forth. And that's not counting the fact of EU nations' own finances tied to this region. A conflict involving China, the US, Russia, Japan, SK, whoever, should, invariably, wipe out trillions of equity right off the bat. I can imagine that's not going to be all that nice for the global economy in any descriptive form.

Will there be a conflict in the region? I don't think there will be one, since all sides bar NK has too much to lose than to gain. But wars started for any old strange reasons in the past so I could be very much in the wrong here.

And when that hypothetical war does start, it's not going to be some proxy battle fought between the major global players but will be a true hands-on conflict. Do you think either of China or Russia would want any allied nations of the US as their immediate neighbours? If the US invades NK, then you can bet your bottom dollar China and Russia will intervene militarily. The same can't be really said for the Middle East at the moment, can we?

My opinions, of course. Feel free to disagree.
 
Interesting question I got for everyone, What would it take for you to believe that America/South Korea/Japan etc has to attack North Korea?

For me atleast you can't treat them like a terrorist group because we already know where they all are and pretty much all of their places of weakness and military is based(Via Satellite), and unlike a terrorist group we really can't afford for them to strike first because atleast from what evidence is provided they may have nuclear weapons and at the very least very powerful ICBMs, they can kill hundreds of thousands and possibly millions which would be catastrophic.

We also know that Their(Possible) allies that would possibly be involved is limited to China, Russia hasn't shown much interest at all in any defence of NK and China at this stage is being very Coy as well, and given how much Military strength can be aimed at them with US and it's allies the probability of wiping them out is almost certain, but casualties atleast in South Korea will be a given.

I don't know how the feeling is in South Korea but I would be scared as hell atm because I feel this situation is coming close to the point of no return and you do not want to be in Soul when that happens.

And when that hypothetical war does start, it's not going to be some proxy battle fought between the major global players but will be a true hands-on conflict. Do you think either of China or Russia would want any allied nations of the US as their immediate neighbours? If the US invades NK, then you can bet your bottom dollar China and Russia will intervene militarily.
I got to disagree on this at least with Russia, Russia has a Land Border with 5 NATO countries already(Norway, Latvia, Estonia, Poland and Lithuania) and while it may be kind of tense Lately there has been no indication that Russia wants to invade.
 
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...Ah, the technical definitions - how I love thee. No, not really.......

Okay, fine - "Potential" Superpowers, then.

But it is strange to read that Wiki article. In pretty much every articles and op-ed pieces written more recently, the common consensus is that China is indeed the global Superpower with political and financial reaches rivalling that of the US in several key regions. Very strange, that Wiki article....
Lest we forget, Wikipedia isn't just random scribblings but (on this particular subject at least) a well-sourced encyclopedia entry.

This Time article also lays down the reasons that that US is the only global superpower - and it too cites several sources. China has a lower GDP, and a much lower per-capita GDP. The US spends four times as much on its military as China does, spends vastly more on foreign aid, has the more valuable banking industry (although thanks to a smaller population, its banks hold smaller assets), and absolutely dominates the list of most valuable public corporations (as of the second quarter 2017, Apple is value over twice that of the highest Chinese company).

The US lags China on a few metrics - China has a net export surplus (the biggest in the world) and the US a massive deficit (also the biggest in the world)... but then I guess it's also notable that the US also has the world's global currency.

However "strange" the Wikipedia article is, it's accurate. Op-ed pieces are just that - opinions - and may throw around terms like "superpower" based on little more than assumption.
 
Interesting question I got for everyone, What would it take for you to believe that America/South Korea/Japan etc has to attack North Korea?

In my opinion, China is the key player in all this. The moment Beijing wipes its hands of North Korea and says to The US, Japan and South Korea 'Do what needs to be done', is the moment it can be resolved by military conflict. Until then all sides can only posture and goad each other.

I still believe North Korea's actions are all about getting some favourable trade deals and aid supplies. It makes no sense for them to actually go to war. The regime will get overthrown and Kim Jong-un killed or disgraced in front of his people and their corruption exposed. He has nothing to gain from a physical conflict.
 
...So, in other words.... you can't. Alright then. No PM'ing necessary, since we both have lives to live, surely.

No I can pretty easily, you made it clear that you didn't want to drag out something trivial, and was just a friendly reminder not to be nearly as upset about being

And that's what you have problems with? Really? I've brought GDP into the picture to shore up my point of SK being an integral part of the global economy, and you have an issue with me providing a context? And what "two"? Isn't that me repeating what I've said since you don't seem to agree, initially at least, with my assessment/opinion?

Problem? You said fourth super power, I said I couldn't think of one and that the closest fourth nation would be S. Korea, and asked if that was what your suggestion was. You brought up GDP and not underestimating them based on size, and the first point economy. That's two things. It's a wrong statement outright, in the sense of what it is to be a super power or great power they're not there they aren't close to it and may never be. Same goes for Japan, the country that was so obvious to see, even though yet again others like me didn't understand what you were on about.

Strange to see you continue to insist that I've inferred SK as a superpower. Also, you are not saying anything different from before.

No I asked if that was who you were referring to, rather than say no outright you decided to defend them for whatever reason. As if it could have been the fourth, rather than your equally head scratching example of Japan.

Both regions are dyed in the colours of blood, I agree. However..... while one region has failed to truly stabilise over the past decades due to various factors, the Far East, on the other hand, has become an important global economic hub. Any sudden instability here has enormous potential to upset the balance of the world. In my opinion, of course.

How are both regions similar in the war torn as your colorful imagery puts it? The east by your point just posed here easily shows they're not similar, one is a constant boiling over point with various higher powers in the world. And really when any major power got involved with it has been bogged down and politically pushed out.

But you might be thinking, why? Simply consider the following - the debts of major global powerhouse nations are in a tangled mess. US owns a great deal of Chinese debt, China owns a great deal of US debt, Russia owns a great deal of Chinese debt, SK owns a great deal of Chinese debt, Japan owns a great deal of SK debt, so and so forth. And that's not counting the fact of EU nations' own finances tied to this region. A conflict involving China, the US, Russia, Japan, SK, whoever, should, invariably, wipe out trillions of equity right off the bat. I can imagine that's not going to be all that nice for the global economy in any descriptive form.

No Japan owns the greatest deal of U.S. debt, China no longer has that title and has for a couple years now been off loading it. I've never heard that the U.S. owns the greatest deal of Chinese debt, since the Federal Reserve owns the greatest deal of U.S. debt among any entity/power. The idea which is where I was figuring you'd head to, is that North Korea is some true flash point, that will embroil the other five nations of the six parties talks into combat. Most of the groups in that region are aligned with the U.S., China has been a mediator and this isn't the 50s. China would most likely protect its border, and there is no indication Russia would retaliate either, other than protecting its border as well.

Will there be a conflict in the region? I don't think there will be one, since all sides bar NK has too much to lose than to gain. But wars started for any old strange reasons in the past so I could be very much in the wrong here.

So we agree then, N. Korea is alone at this point. And since there is so much at stake, a group that offers nothing to the big powers in that region seems to be hardly a reason to bring a world into conflict. It's the political storm after the a potential war has ended that I think would be the worry.

And when that hypothetical war does start, it's not going to be some proxy battle fought between the major global players but will be a true hands-on conflict. Do you think either of China or Russia would want any allied nations of the US as their immediate neighbours? If the US invades NK, then you can bet your bottom dollar China and Russia will intervene militarily. The same can't be really said for the Middle East at the moment, can we?

My opinions, of course. Feel free to disagree.

Of course China doesn't want a new U.S. ally on their border. They do have neighbors though that are U.S. Allies so it's not like this would be a first one. Why can you bet that those two will intervene? The new sanctions imposed on N. Korea show that China and Russia don't like the current trajectory of NK, because they voted in favor with the U.S. which is shocking considering the history of how they've voted in the past. And still N. Korea in the face of that shows no disregard. At this point it's the U.S. waiting for something to happen, and having provocation. Those two aren't going to do anything if the U.S. is provoked. If the U.S. invades I find it risky but still unlikely of any actual fight between anyone that isn't NK or U.S.

In my opinion, China is the key player in all this. The moment Beijing wipes its hands of North Korea and says to The US, Japan and South Korea 'Do what needs to be done', is the moment it can be resolved by military conflict. Until then all sides can only posture and goad each other.

I still believe North Korea's actions are all about getting some favourable trade deals and aid supplies. It makes no sense for them to actually go to war. The regime will get overthrown and Kim Jong-un killed or disgraced in front of his people and their corruption exposed. He has nothing to gain from a physical conflict.

Which they seem pretty close to be doing, I think realistically for this all to happen the six parties (five really) would have to come back together and politically address how the interim and future government of a post North Korea would work. Would it become Korea as one again, with South Korea frame of government being the model for the new singular hypothetical Korea. Also would this end the long held treaty between the U.S. and Korea about being a military presence there. That alone would probably help move things forward, if China knew the U.S. would only be an ally and not a constant physical military presence.
 
No I can pretty easily, you made it clear that you didn't want to drag out something trivial, and was just a friendly reminder not to be nearly as upset about being

...Being, what? Please finish what you are trying to imply. Indeed, I don't want to drag on something trivial, as it were, if it's not going to add much to this discussion going forward. Honestly, you shouldn't even try to accuse me in the first place. Would've saved us both time.

Problem? You said fourth super power, I said I couldn't think of one and that the closest fourth nation would be S. Korea, and asked if that was what your suggestion was. You brought up GDP and not underestimating them based on size, and the first point economy. That's two things. It's a wrong statement outright, in the sense of what it is to be a super power or great power they're not there they aren't close to it and may never be. Same goes for Japan, the country that was so obvious to see, even though yet again others like me didn't understand what you were on about.

I just went back and read my prior post - since I can hardly recall what I did write back then - and just realised that I was unclear about who the four major players in the regions were, since my definition for a "superpower" nation was wrong. For that, it was my fault. However, it also became somewhat clear to me too, that there seems to be a certain underlying disregard for South Korea in your reply post and the subsequent follow ups.

Thus, GDP was brought into the mix to clarify my position, which, seen from above quote, you still seem to take issues with. And yes, it is a "wrong" statement to call SK a superpower, funnily enough, I never did - it was you who first introduced the idea to the table.

No I asked if that was who you were referring to, rather than say no outright you decided to defend them for whatever reason. As if it could have been the fourth, rather than your equally head scratching example of Japan.

See above. In my rebuttal, I clearly stated the four nations I believed to be "superpowers." You did see that, didn't you?

The 4 superpowers I implied, if it wasn't clear to you for some reason, are China, Russia, Japan and the US.

How are both regions similar in the war torn as your colorful imagery puts it? The east by your point just posed here easily shows they're not similar, one is a constant boiling over point with various higher powers in the world. And really when any major power got involved with it has been bogged down and politically pushed out.

Where did I say war-torn? Wasn't it "both regions are dyed in the colours of blood" - may I remind you of Korean War, Japanese aggression in the mainland China, battles fought by Japan and Russia, the conflict in Vietnam? And the Far East, despite all that, found a way to stabilise their economy. In your contention that the conflict in the Middle East has more major powers involved, that seems rather false to me. After all, China has all but distanced itself from it, with its state media hardly mentioning the ongoings, if at all. Of course, that could be due to certain other factors, but the point is, one of the major global players aren't as heavily invested in the Middle East situation as much as you're implying.

No Japan owns the greatest deal of U.S. debt, China no longer has that title and has for a couple years now been off loading it. I've never heard that the U.S. owns the greatest deal of Chinese debt, since the Federal Reserve owns the greatest deal of U.S. debt among any entity/power. The idea which is where I was figuring you'd head to, is that North Korea is some true flash point, that will embroil the other five nations of the six parties talks into combat. Most of the groups in that region are aligned with the U.S., China has been a mediator and this isn't the 50s. China would most likely protect its border, and there is no indication Russia would retaliate either, other than protecting its border as well.

I think this here also is partly my fault - the debt isn't truly the accurate depiction of what I wanted to convey - debt implies someone owes something to someone else. However, I didn't say "the greatest" as I highlighted in the quote. I simply said "a great deal" which is rather different in meaning, no? Hopefully, you aren't going to try denying the fact that the economies of the nations involved in this ever growing mess aren't intertwined beyond comprehension.

And it's interesting you bring up 50s, because actually that's a pretty good analogy - the current Chinese President Xi Jingping has been aggressively pursuing the policy of "Chinese Dream" where the nation becomes the greatest economic, military and political powerhouse of the world, even to overtake the US in the future. Just the way the Communist leaders of the 50s were telling the populace they were building the greatest nation on earth back then.

You may not believe it, but there have been confirmed reports of Chinese troops moving near NK borders as the THAAD systems were being put in place. Are they there for a show, or to pounce the moment something happens to NK leadership by external forces?

You think China will not retaliate using their military? Their near showdown with India at the borders of Bhutan begs to differ.

And Russia - whew, this one's more complicated. There's a chance that they might not act, but if NK is embroiled in a war and falls, would they risk a complete besiegement of their borders by NATO nations? Or will they chose to support NK regime, as they have been doing currently with covert crude oil shipments? And they do have form when it comes to engaging in combat - just ask Crimean residents.

So we agree then, N. Korea is alone at this point. And since there is so much at stake, a group that offers nothing to the big powers in that region seems to be hardly a reason to bring a world into conflict. It's the political storm after the a potential war has ended that I think would be the worry.

As I said, wars start with just about any excuses people in power can come up with. North Korea isn't really, really alone, though - it still has China and Russia backing it.

Of course China doesn't want a new U.S. ally on their border. They do have neighbors though that are U.S. Allies so it's not like this would be a first one. Why can you bet that those two will intervene? The new sanctions imposed on N. Korea show that China and Russia don't like the current trajectory of NK, because they voted in favor with the U.S. which is shocking considering the history of how they've voted in the past. And still N. Korea in the face of that shows no disregard. At this point it's the U.S. waiting for something to happen, and having provocation. Those two aren't going to do anything if the U.S. is provoked. If the U.S. invades I find it risky but still unlikely of any actual fight between anyone that isn't NK or U.S.

You don't know what's truly being discussed behind the close doors at the Chinese leadership. Neither do I, and we can only speculate. From what I read so far, the so-called UN sanctions haven't been supported down at the ground by either China and Russia, so....

And also from the pieces straight out SK media, the current SK president, Mr. Problematic Person, has been singing the tune of "the US won't start anything without my consent." Whether that's true or not... who knows. But if the US invades, then again, I assert that China and Russia will intervene. Their current policies, prior actions, their stated desires and goals leads me to believe so.
 
That's why it was such a provocative act by Pyongyang. It was a potential threat to the people of Japan no matter what. You leave it alone - it could malfunction and fall apart over Japan or it's waters. You try and shoot it down when it enters your airspace - debris would fall apart over Japan or it's waters. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
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The missile flew over the Japanese land twice: over the southwest of Hokkaido and Cape Erimo. Most of the time, it was flying over the water, so they could shoot it so it falls into the sea. If they did it, the people would feel less scared and knew that the SDF is able to protect them and they aren't feeding them for nothing.

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You don't know what's truly being discussed behind the close doors at the Chinese leadership. Neither do I, and we can only speculate. From what I read so far, the so-called UN sanctions haven't been supported down at the ground by either China and Russia, so....
Citation needed.

But if the US invades, then again, I assert that China and Russia will intervene. Their current policies, prior actions, their stated desires and goals leads me to believe so.
Why?
 
For the record, I'd just like to point out that ICBM travel at about 15000mph... Roughly 4 miles a second. They would have had mere minutes to decide to shoot it down or not before the potential fall out would be over land. My thought is that Japan probably didn't have enough time to access the data and make an informed decision. Someone (teneighty?) Had made a comment about taking the data gathered and processing it as opposed to firing away and hoping for the best (very paraphrased). In this case i think that makes a lot of sense. Now they have data to extrapolate from, next time one of their ICBMs are fired, Japan and allies will have a far clearer picture of what to do and when to try and knock it out of the air... That is if they can. If they (NK) got any tech from Russia, THAAD probably won't work.
 
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For the record, I'd just like to point out that ICBM travel at about 15000mph... Roughly 4 miles a second. They would have had mere minutes to decide to shoot it down or not before the potential fall out would be over land. My thought is that Japan probably didn't have enough time to access the data and make an informed decision. Someone (teneighty?) Had made a comment about taking the data gathered and processing it as opposed to firing away and hoping for the best (very paraphrased). In this case i think that makes a lot of sense. Now they have data to extrapolate from, next time one of their ICBMs are fired, Japan and allies will have a far clearer picture of what to do and when to try and knock it out of the air... That is if they can. If they (NK) got any tech from Russia, THAAD probably won't work.

Looking at the missiles flight path above, Japanese airspace along that route extends to about 420 miles before it's over land. That's about a minute and a half between entering airspace and being over actual Japanese soil. The trajectory of any debris from a ICBM hit at the airspace border travelling at that speed i reckon still has a good chance of making land - let alone any shipping that could be within that flight path. It would be too risky IMO.
 
For the record, I'd just like to point out that ICBM travel at about 15000mph... Roughly 4 miles a second. They would have had mere minutes to decide to shoot it down or not before the potential fall out would be over land. My thought is that Japan probably didn't have enough time to access the data and make an informed decision. Someone (teneighty?) Had made a comment about taking the data gathered and processing it as opposed to firing away and hoping for the best (very paraphrased). In this case i think that makes a lot of sense. Now they have data to extrapolate from, next time one of their ICBMs are fired, Japan and allies will have a far clearer picture of what to do and when to try and knock it out of the air... That is if they can. If they (NK) got any tech from Russia, THAAD probably won't work.

They're almost certainly not going to make those decisions in real time. Nobody expects to make an informed and rational decision in a couple of minutes with a missile heading for them.

They'll have standing orders for a variety of circumstances that will have been analysed and discussed in minute detail by dozens of people over months, at minimum. If they don't shoot a missile down, it's because that's what their procedures dictated. There are examples of this not happening (see Petrov, Stanislav), but that's almost certainly not the case here.
 
North Korea claims that they've successfully detonated a Hydrogen bomb, triggering an earthquake hitting 6.3 on the Richter scale.
 
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