North Korea, Sanctions, and Kim Jong-un

Just curious. What do you guys think would be the best case scenario to handle a situation like we're facing with NK? I'm lost right about now.

North Korea can be defeated without firing a shot - but currently the Chinese currently will not countenance that. But it is becoming increasingly obvious to Beijing that their approach is not only not working, but is potentially catastrophic for the region, regardless of any US involvement. China need to be seriously thinking about how to deal with the collapse of the Kim regime, as opposed to sticking to the old mantra that the Kim regime cannot be allowed to collapse.
 
China need to be seriously thinking about how to deal with the collapse of the Kim regime, as opposed to sticking to the old mantra that the Kim regime cannot be allowed to collapse.

The obvious solution is an annexation by China. As diplomatically complex as that would be it would at least satisfy the main, overriding objective which is surely to halt the nuclear threats from NK.
 
North Korea can be defeated without firing a shot - but currently the Chinese currently will not countenance that. But it is becoming increasingly obvious to Beijing that their approach is not only not working, but is potentially catastrophic for the region, regardless of any US involvement. China need to be seriously thinking about how to deal with the collapse of the Kim regime, as opposed to sticking to the old mantra that the Kim regime cannot be allowed to collapse.
So from what I gathered from this entire discussion, the issue is not what US or NK want to do but if China or Russia is ok with an attack or not?
 
So from what I gathered from this entire discussion, the issue is not what US or NK want to do but if China or Russia is ok with an attack or not?
It's more about finding a solution that everyone (well, everyone except North Korea anyway) can live with.

It would certainly be a lot easier for the US and its allies to achieve their aims if China and Russia were on board, but China are particularly sensitive to any action (military or otherwise) that could being about a chaotic collapse of the Kim regime, for example super-tough sanctions and/or a ban on trading with North Korea. The problem is, though, that there is virtually no prospect of getting rid of the Kim regime in an orderly way - it's either a chaotic collapse or do nothing. So far, as far as China is concerned anyway, the latter is far preferable - but the situation is becoming increasingly dangerous for the US and its allies in the region, namely Japan and South Korea, and for China as well.

There may soon come a point where the Chinese start to think that it would be better for them to force the Kim regime out, rather than leaving it in the hands of the US - not least because China will almost certainly want to have a major say in what happens to North Korea in the event that the Kim regime is ousted. Otherwise, China could face the prospect of further US military expansion right on its door step and a chaotic collapse where China ends up picking up the pieces regardless. Of course, this would be disastrous for US-China relations, which again provides another incentive toward finding a solution that both the US and China can reasonably deal with.
 
So from what I gathered from this entire discussion, the issue is not what US or NK want to do but if China or Russia is ok with an attack or not?
From my previous post.
Its from this piece.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/08/china-remain-neutral-north-korea-attacks-170811064530204.html

It's basically says China only intervene US if they attack first, but remain neutral if NK did first instead.

But if I can add, North Korea is basically a spoiled child of Russia and China and run its government with utter lunacy. Essentially, a liability from the soviet system.

1. Geographically, China only need them so they can further apart from US bases in South Korea.

2. Economically, NK is very useless even for international community as a whole, let alone Russia and China. Both only make use of NK for free hard (forced) labor when they didn't bother about morals.

Ironically though, South Korean Company, Hyundai Group, tried to help NK by organizing tourism in Mount Kumgang and Industrial Park at Kaesong. Both got its cooperation halted by current NK government.

3. China just keep NK status quo so they dont have to face Korean Refugees on their complicated residential system and keep the peace on east asia as a whole.

East Asian society really values their culture, including their land. Annexing NK to China would be very unthinkable. South Korea probably, altough it'll be really costly.
 
It's more about finding a solution that everyone (well, everyone except North Korea anyway) can live with.

It would certainly be a lot easier for the US and its allies to achieve their aims if China and Russia were on board, but China are particularly sensitive to any action (military or otherwise) that could being about a chaotic collapse of the Kim regime, for example super-tough sanctions and/or a ban on trading with North Korea. The problem is, though, that there is virtually no prospect of getting rid of the Kim regime in an orderly way - it's either a chaotic collapse or do nothing. So far, as far as China is concerned anyway, the latter is far preferable - but the situation is becoming increasingly dangerous for the US and its allies in the region, namely Japan and South Korea, and for China as well.

There may soon come a point where the Chinese start to think that it would be better for them to force the Kim regime out, rather than leaving it in the hands of the US - not least because China will almost certainly want to have a major say in what happens to North Korea in the event that the Kim regime is ousted. Otherwise, China could face the prospect of further US military expansion right on its door step and a chaotic collapse where China ends up picking up the pieces regardless. Of course, this would be disastrous for US-China relations, which again provides another incentive toward finding a solution that both the US and China can reasonably deal with.
I've seen this news passed around a couple times. It sounds like that may have been a plan at one point internally from within' N. Korea, but the Chinese President at the time didn't give a clear reply & an ally within' the Chinese Govt. tipped off Kim.
North Korea never acknowledged the half-brother's death, but a report by the Japanese magazine Nikkei Asian Review claimed the leader had both relatives killed because of a coup concocted a year after he came to power, Sky News reported.

The magazine cited three sources who said Jang met with then-Chinese President Hu Jintao in August 2012 and "proposed a plot to oust Kim Jong Un and replace him with his elder half-brother," with China's support.

Hu reportedly didn't give Jang a clear answer, and Zhou Yongkang, Kim's ally in the Chinese government, informed the North Korean leader about the plot. Kim then "flew into a rage" around the time when Jang was executed, whom he branded "worse than a dog" and a "despicable human scum."
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/0...brother-over-china-coup-plot-report-says.html
 
...Apologies for a belated response. Been swarmed with work and couldn't find free enough time to search through my old browser history and locate months-old articles. Regrettably, though, most of those are Korean and Google Translate ends up butchering the words in them, so I had to find the alternative English articles instead.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/anders...program-from-warheads-to-trucks/#332781c36f2f

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...elping-north-korea-nuclear-program/440029001/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ntities-for-helping-north-korea-idUSKCN1B21OG

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/article167337082.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...th-korea-to-build-up-russia-as-a-great-power/

These were the results that popped up first in Google search. Admittedly, two of them are op-eds, but they still provide links to original news articles that formed the basis of the opinions reflected. Hope they help.
Alright, thanks.

I'm not sure about China, but Russia has imposed some sanctions on DPRK earlier, however, their effectivity isn't good. (Yes, there are some private companies that sold something to someone who paid (even if it's NK), and they were hit by sanctions.) The Foreign Ministry said that the resources for sanctions on NK is exhausted. Today in China, Putin spoke about the North Korean problem, and he also noted that there's no more room for sanctions. "We have almost zero trade turnover with DPRK. ... Yes, we have about 30,000 North Koreans working in Russia, but should we leave them all with no money for living? The policy of their government will stay the same, but the life of North Korean citizens will become even worse." - that's briefly what he said.

Their current policies, prior actions, their stated desires and goals leads me to believe so.
Well, again, I can't surely speak for China, but Russia? I don't remember RF stating a desire to protect NK in case of invasion. What Moscow is interested in is stability and peace in the Far East region. Joining a war in Korea won't help this.

Russia is, in one hand, one of the few countries that North Korea doesn't consider an enemy. In the other hand, RF has no reason to stand up for NK if things get hot. We're not in 1914 when empires are itchy for war and they need just a little stated cause to start it. Today, you would need a really serious reason to join one.
 
Today in China, Putin spoke about the North Korean problem, and he also noted that there's no more room for sanctions. "We have almost zero trade turnover with DPRK. ... Yes, we have about 30,000 North Koreans working in Russia, but should we leave them all with no money for living? The policy of their government will stay the same, but the life of North Korean citizens will become even worse." - that's briefly what he said.

Of the leadership he also said "they would rather eat grass than give up their nuclear programme".
 
Of the leadership he also said "they would rather eat grass than give up their nuclear programme".
Translation: "they would rather their already destitute people eat grass as long as they can keep their bombs"?
 
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I very much doubt the leadership has any intention of starving, they'll probably subsist on a diet of roast peasant or something.

The actual starving people would have little choice in the matter from what I understand.
Well, I'm sure cannibalism will only cause their standing on the human rights leaderboard to move up.
 
Well, I'm sure cannibalism will only cause their standing on the human rights leaderboard to move up.

...Why does this post reminds me of that scene from the Brad Pitt-starrer, World War Z? You know, that scene where Pitt's being told that to avoid the zombie plague destroying NK, the baby Kim "removed" all the teeth of his citizens by force....

Russia is, in one hand, one of the few countries that North Korea doesn't consider an enemy. In the other hand, RF has no reason to stand up for NK if things get hot. We're not in 1914 when empires are itchy for war and they need just a little stated cause to start it. Today, you would need a really serious reason to join one.

Of course, I don't want a war to break out, as much as the next guy. I'm just saying, weirder and flimsier reasons were often bandied about when going off on a war in the past so anything is possible. I'm just hoping that doesn't come to pass.
 
...anything is possible. I'm just hoping that doesn't come to pass.

Not only is anything possible, something wonderful seems to be already happening. According to news reports, the tunnel used for the No Ko H-bomb test was poorly designed and constructed, and is partially collapsed, leading to the potential of deadly radiation leaking out of the mountain and drifting across to China - a fitting reward for the help they've given to the Kim's nuke and rocketry programs. With a little bit of, ah, help, the rupture of the tunnel could be truly catastrophic. If Kim's gang don't do themselves in first, I'm recommending a complete and total trade ban with China until they see fit to do their duty, which is to rein in their proxy state.
 
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a complete and total trade ban with China

....Eh, that's not gonna happen.

Also, I know you were being sarcastic, but uh, "wonderful" isn't exactly the kind of adjective to describe a potential catastrophe where millions of lives would be lost....
 
....Eh, that's not gonna happen.

Also, I know you were being sarcastic, but uh, "wonderful" isn't exactly the kind of adjective to describe a potential catastrophe where millions of lives would be lost....

I seriously doubt millions would die due to a radiation leak. But some would have their hair fall out and many others would lose confidence in leadership. Not so bad a deal for us!

And I do think Donald Trump would love to do a trade ban - even if only partial - on China!
 
Translation: "they would rather their already destitute people eat grass as long as they can keep their bombs"?

Too late, from smuggled out video and talking with those who have made it out, that's already being done. Maybe they rather eat gravel, next?

The tunnel collapse is in the USGS data that I posted somewhere above. The collapse may or may not be intentional (or foreseen) on NK's part. Without the collapse the cast-iron proof of a nuclear detonation is absent.

True but that's not the point he was making, the point is that nuclear radiation is supposedly seeping out and drifting toward mainland China. Now who knows how true this is, the Navy and Airforce have aircraft that can detect and track fallout and radiation movement post suspected or known blast, but I doubt they'll be able to get one anywhere near to find out the reality.

It's hopeful thinking but I doubt it will be something that China puts their foot down on it, unless it's a major issue that they would have to speak out upon.
 
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What luck would that be, though? Talk of the US & N. Korea finally at war, and N. Korea ends up inadvertently getting China involved who wanted to remain neutral. Just replace USA with China & it reminds me of this skit.
68611809.jpg


All wishful thinking of course. N. Korea would have to really screw up to get China involved.
 
The only reason North Korea is threatening the US and others is because the US and others are threatening North Korea with annihilation.

Here's a revolutionary thought: Stop threatening North Korea with annihilation. They can go back to being 95% farming peasants with a ridiculous aristocracy. The rest of us can go about our lives.

Why push a country to the brink of war over weapons that exist in multiple other nations, several of which are also distinctly anti-US and far more of a real threat? This feels a lot more like Sarajevo in 1914 or the invasion of Poland than a real reason to go to war. It's a casus belli the US can use to start WW3. Why they would want to is slightly beyond me, but given that America's military is it's main remaining strength as a country there are worse ideas than putting all your eggs in that basket. Sort of sucks if you're not American though.
 
The only reason North Korea is threatening the US and others is because the US and others are threatening North Korea with annihilation.

Here's a revolutionary thought: Stop threatening North Korea with annihilation. They can go back to being 95% farming peasants with a ridiculous aristocracy. The rest of us can go about our lives.

Why push a country to the brink of war over weapons that exist in multiple other nations, several of which are also distinctly anti-US and far more of a real threat? This feels a lot more like Sarajevo in 1914 or the invasion of Poland than a real reason to go to war. It's a casus belli the US can use to start WW3. Why they would want to is slightly beyond me, but given that America's military is it's main remaining strength as a country there are worse ideas than putting all your eggs in that basket. Sort of sucks if you're not American though.

Who are those that are far more of a threat that own nuclear weapons? We've been over this once or twice on this thread, and I still haven't found a solid basis of understanding. It seems more of an ethical argument and thus justification for N. Korea doing what it is doing, but they've been at it since the 80s and threatening the U.S. not the other way around. We and the world at large don't agree with them illegally having WMD. And their openness to use them, they've agreed to international talks, agreements and the gauntlet and time and time again have broken them all, in a quest for nuclear weapons.

So who has these weapons that we should be far more focused on? Pakistan is the only one I can think of outside of North Korea. They'd be destroyed rather quick considering they supposedly don't have Hydrogen bombs also they don't seem to really be looking anywhere close to a threat. MAD theory as I said last time has essentially made China and Russia and the U.S. think multiple times before pointing nuclear weapons at each other. Russia and the U.S. also have an proliferation agreement to decrease weapons as well as the NTI reporting that nuclear weapon amount had decreased between the known nuclear nations.

Once again there is a deeper argument to be had on the ownership of such armament, and the reason they (N.Korea) are in this situation, is because it is internationally agreed, that outside of those who have them no other nations should. And for good reason, as I said before. So I'm troubled when you make a parallel yet again that this is akin to Nazi Germany invading Poland. As an American and someone critical of my gov't foreign policy since JFK and further, when others suggest that said gov't is looking to start WW3 it's a concerning quip that is either hyper critical of a situation or ignorant. And I know you're not ignorant on the topic.

Also what's with the popular anecdote of "such and such event is going to cause WW3"? Saw this said with Crimea, didn't happen, saw this said with Syria, didn't happen. I guess third time is the charm?
 
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Of the leadership he also said "they would rather eat grass than give up their nuclear programme".
Exactly. He said that too.

Also, today in Vladivostok, on the Eastern Economic Forum, when talking to South Korean president Moon Jae-in, Putin spoke about North Korea again, calling to stop "cornering North Korea". "Everyone must keep cool heads and avoid steps leading to escalation of the tensions." However, he also said that Russia does not recognize the nuclear status of DPRK and condemns the recent missile and nuclear tests. Meanwhile, Putin expressed RF's readiness to participate in joint three-side economic projects involving Russia and both Koreas. Something about gas supplies and electric network integration.

So, it may be that Putin is trying to be a "good cop" to NK, on the contrary of Trump being a "bad cop".
 
So, it may be that Putin is trying to be a "good cop" to NK, on the contrary of Trump being a "bad cop".

And "sensible cop", perhaps. For Putin this could be a nuclear (or heavy conventional) conflict right against Russia's border. That's something he'd like to avoid even before considerations of a Chinese/Russian/American-Japanese-SK standoff on the peninsula.

For Trump... I get the feeling that for some Americans (certainly not all, and not at this forum) anywhere foreign is a looooong way away and that a war over NK wouldn't affect them as much. A good war is always good for a President, at least in the run up.
 
And "sensible cop", perhaps. For Putin this could be a nuclear (or heavy conventional) conflict right against Russia's border. That's something he'd like to avoid even before considerations of a Chinese/Russian/American-Japanese-SK standoff on the peninsula.

For Trump... I get the feeling that for some Americans (certainly not all, and not at this forum) anywhere foreign is a looooong way away and that a war over NK wouldn't affect them as much. A good war is always good for a President, at least in the run up.

@Rage Racer It's good this is being talked about, since many people seem to take it for granted or believe that Russia and China don't have their own condemnation for what NK are doing nuclear wise. Also I am not surprised that Russia is the more "sensible" party in this area, since that was their role during the six party talks. They typically were the mediator or neutral ground seeking for people to be clear minded. The U.S. seemed to take this as an act at times of just appeasing to a nation that has no care for the rest of the world, and is setting a trail ablaze with its nuclear ambitions. In reality as hard as it is to believe for many Russia could be doing it out of interest of preserving the region from a mass exodus of people, and worse nuclear fall out/destruction if it were to come to that. That's not to say China and the U.S. aren't also taking strides to prevent this but they're not using the same rhetoric at times Russia does.
 
Who are those that are far more of a threat that own nuclear weapons?

Russia and China? Both are capable of giving the US military an actual run for their money, as opposed to North Korea who are mostly stuck with tech from the 80s or earlier.

North Korea doesn't really threaten the US. At most, they'd get a missile or two through. Russia and China could potentially do far more damage if they so chose, and neither of them are exactly allies with the US. They will cooperate when it's in their interests only.

We and the world at large don't agree with them illegally having WMD.

Nobody agrees with anybody having WMD, except we've sort of ended up at this place where it's deemed OK for those that already have them to keep them (US, Russia, Britain), and if someone develops them it's OK if they're a large enough threat that actually doing anything about it would be tough (France, India, China, Pakistan, Israel).

Also, there's not really any such thing as illegal on the international level. "Illegal" is determined by the victors. There are various conventions on how war and weapons should be treated, but these are really no more than gentleman's agreements to limit the use of certain tactics or weapons.

And their openness to use them, they've agreed to international talks, agreements and the gauntlet and time and time again have broken them all, in a quest for nuclear weapons.

Yes, and the stories of those talks are rather more complicated than "North Korea keeps violating our earnestly offered olive branches".

MAD theory as I said last time has essentially made China and Russia and the U.S. think multiple times before pointing nuclear weapons at each other.

Yes, and why does MAD work? Because all parties present a credible threat. MAD doesn't work if you believe that the other party won't actually use their weapons.

Russia and the U.S. also have an proliferation agreement to decrease weapons as well as the NTI reporting that nuclear weapon amount had decreased between the known nuclear nations.

And Mr. Trump has espoused the opinion that he'd like to increase the US nuclear arsenal. I wonder how that will go down with the other nuclear powers?

Once again there is a deeper argument to be had on the ownership of such armament, and the reason they (N.Korea) are in this situation, is because it is internationally agreed, that outside of those who have them no other nations should. And for good reason, as I said before.

Why should those who have them be allowed to keep them? The arguments I've heard amount to either "just cause" or "it would be to difficult to enforce removal". Which are both fair points, but hardly good reasons. I mean, there was nowhere near this much fuss over Israel becoming a nuclear power, and they're actually in a shooting war with another state.

I often get the impression that the rules that are applied to NK are not the same rules that apply to other states. Probably simply because they're the "bad guy", which means that they happened to be on the wrong side of a geographical line back when the powers that be divided Korea in half.

I honestly don't see anything worse about NK having defensive nukes than anyone else. I don't like it, but I don't like anyone having nukes. I figure if America and Russia and China are allowed nukes, so is anyone else. To try and claim otherwise is just the big kids trying desperately to maintain their military stranglehold on the world, because a nuke is only really useful if your enemy doesn't have one to fire back.

Fair play to them for trying, but I'm a little more equal minded than that. I don't think little countries should be forced to kowtow to bigger ones simply because they didn't exist at the start of the nuclear game. If NK and Iran and whoever else want into the nuclear power club I say the more the merrier. And maybe everyone will realise that actually no one should have these things before we all destroy ourselves.

So I'm troubled when you make a parallel yet again that this is akin to Nazi Germany invading Poland. As an American and someone critical of my gov't foreign policy since JFK and further, when others suggest that said gov't is looking to start WW3 it's a concerning quip that is either hyper critical of a situation or ignorant. And I know you're not ignorant on the topic.

No, I'm not. And I'm well aware that NK could be the spot that the US and either China or Russia or both use to start a proxy war that could very easily become a real war. A real war that because of various treaties and alliances could very quickly involve a significant portion of the world's militaries.

Let's be honest, North Korea in and of itself isn't scary or a significant threat. It's a tiny country with outdated hardware that could draw blood but would be crushed very quickly were it to come to open warfare. NK is only a threat because nobody really knows to what extent NK could also include the militaries of Russia or China, which are a (potential) threat. And if Russia or China go to war with the US, that's potentially a really big deal.

I'm not trying to compare America to Nazi Germany. I'm simply pointing out that the wrong small military action can turn into a world war. NK could be that military action for the US, the one where Russia and China say "the US is striking this country right on our borders, this is unacceptable".

However I do think that the US military is very large and a significant portion of the US economy. If it shrinks, that has problematic effects for America. I do think that the government is aware of this, and I do think that they take it into account when determining when and where they should enter into conflicts. It's very hard to maintain a large military if it's never used, quite apart from the fact that green soldiers and officers are a lot less useful than ones with some experience.
 
Why should those who have them be allowed to keep them? The arguments I've heard amount to either "just cause" or "it would be to difficult to enforce removal". Which are both fair points, but hardly good reasons. I mean, there was nowhere near this much fuss over Israel becoming a nuclear power, and they're actually in a shooting war with another state.

I often get the impression that the rules that are applied to NK are not the same rules that apply to other states.

I think the two countries that those rules have been applied to are Iran and NK. It's historically complicated for both but the TLDR is that both have strongly claimed an intention to use them first (one against Israel, one against the US). For the MAD countries the deterrent is, in theory, going to be annihilating in retaliation for a first strike.
 
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