North Korea, Sanctions, and Kim Jong-un

I think that would the first time anyone ever got a peace prize for threating to rain fire and destruction.
Oh, right, and pretty sure Trump isnt the first to get NK to the table. I mean, Bush did it, Obama has done it. Pretty sure Clinton has as well. Yet here we are. Looking at a NK with nukes. Seems kinda moot now. We stopped nothing, amd given history, it won't stop anything either. Kim will come to the table, offer some platitudes, get some sanctions lifted then go right back to doing everything they were doing to get them sanctioned.
My personal opinion, they are just buying time. This gives DPRK more time to test and deploy their weapons, more time to get into what they may assume to be a position of power. Then they will go right back to threatening SK, the US, and all the allies inbetween. Because that is literally what they have done time and again, internationally, since the early 90s.
 
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My personal opinion, they are just buying time. This gives DPRK more time to test and deploy their weapons, more time to get into what they may assume to be a position of power. Then they will go right back to threatening SK, the US, and all the allies inbetween. Because that is literally what they have done time and again, internationally, since the early 90s.

Buying time for what, though? What's their endgame?

Blowing up the world isn't an endgame, that doesn't put them in a better position. Having military might isn't an end in and of itself, it's a tool to be used. It can be used for defence (which given the aggressive rhetoric towards NK I would argue is totally reasonable), it can be used to provide a credible threat to bargain for other things, or it can be used directly to capture territory or cripple opponents. But in all these situations military power is simply used as a tool to greater goals.

So given that NK want military power for some purpose, what is that purpose? What makes sense for NK to antagonise the international community so much with nuclear development that it would be worth it?
 
Perhaps regaining the entirety of the Korean peninsula? Perhaps to build/buy more military equipment before waging an attack on the us? Perhaps just to hold on to the title of biggest global troll? I don't know Kims mind set. He could be a mad man, in which case he may not even need a logical reason. What made sense about leaving the NPT in the first place, agreeing to follow the terms, then drop out again,
several times over? Self defense may be the public excuse, but i certainly dont believe it to be the truth. Throwing icbm over other countries doesnt make for a good self defense story either.
 
Given that now NK has nukes before those presidents did...

I'm not sure what that means? NK had weapons-grade plutonium during those presidents' tenures and a working rocket program, the recent developments just (allegedly) give them ranged, semi-reliable ICBM capability.
 
My personal opinion, they are just buying time. This gives DPRK more time to test and deploy their weapons, more time to get into what they may assume to be a position of power. Then they will go right back to threatening SK, the US, and all the allies inbetween. Because that is literally what they have done time and again, internationally, since the early 90s.
Buying time against what? I mean, what can happen if they don't buy time?

Trump had threatened to grind North Korea into dust. It's not like this is completely impossible for him. But on the current stage, Kim is already capable of taking a lot of people into hell with him - in South Korea, possibly Japan, and maybe even in the US. Would the world want to pay that price for a regime change? No. Will Trump consider it acceptable? I hope not. But who knows.
 
Perhaps regaining the entirety of the Korean peninsula? Perhaps to build/buy more military equipment before waging an attack on the us? Perhaps just to hold on to the title of biggest global troll? I don't know Kims mind set. He could be a mad man, in which case he may not even need a logical reason.

OK, let's just assume that he's not insane. Because despite you getting ornery about the fact that another country has the balls to tell America to shove it, from the perspective of a ruler of NK most of what he does makes sense. I mean, he does have Trump threatening to invade his country.

Do you have any reasonable things that he might wish to accomplish that would actually be in the interest of North Korea other than defence? Cos that's all I can think of. And that seems fine, that's essentially the same reason all the other nuclear states have nukes. A reasonable comparison might be Israel, who has them specifically because they are/have been under imminent threat and deemed it necessary for the survival of their nation.

What made sense about leaving the NPT in the first place, agreeing to follow the terms, then drop out again,
several times over? Self defense may be the public excuse, but i certainly dont believe it to be the truth. Throwing icbm over other countries doesnt make for a good self defense story either.

It doesn't? Hell. What about detonating nukes in the South Pacific? Does that sounds like a good self-defence story? How about flying nuclear laden bombers around the borders of another country? How about two nations moving their launch sites into allied countries closer and closer to each other's borders until we get the Cuban Missile Crisis?

Look at where North Korea is located. If they launch anything it's going over someone. They somewhat intelligently picked the country that is still under a non-aggression treaty forced on them after WW2 by America. Japan would be violating their own constitution to retaliate. The worst they can do is send a stern letter.

The US can retaliate for them, but that's sort of the whole point, right? The fact that the US and Trump are already gung ho on stomping NK into the ground, and so arguably NK makes the right call by accelerating missile development to the point where the US might consider that it's not a war worth getting into.

It's funny how much more sense global politics makes when you put aside your personal feelings and just treat each country as it's own entity not connected to you. You don't have to buy into the propaganda about the evil Hun, or the nasty Japanese, or the suicidally bloodythirsty towelhead, or the crazy North Korean.

You can think about if you were a small country that was formed as a puppet in a war between two international powers, that has now been around for long enough to probably be reasonably considered a country in it's own right, and which is still to some extent playing second fiddle to the wishes of China and Russia. You've seen other countries like Afghanistan be turned into an endless civil war, and you've seen the US go in and stomp Iraq for basically no good reason at all. You're rightly fearful that you might be next, and that seems pretty plausible given that the US has been involved in one war or another for decades and seems to be pulling back at the moment. Are they going to let the world's biggest military stand idle, or will they use it on you? Is Trump all hot wind, or is he really crazy enough to launch an attack on you? He certainly doesn't seem that stable, and it seems an awful thing to gamble an entire country on, that the unhinged, uninformed egotistical POTUS thing is all a big act.

I'm not particularly sympathetic to the way NK seems to be run, the common people live startlingly meagre lives and are denied a great amount of knowledge about the world and their place in it. But from a military perspective I think a lot of the NK decisions seem to be quite rational given the history and what's going on around them. Particularly their recent moves to create stronger relations with SK, given that at the moment neither SK or NK seem particularly interested in taking the other by force as much as they'd simply like to keep what they have now. SK is a good ally to have in terms of keeping the US out of the Korean peninsula, and if the US goes to war in NK without the blessing of SK it could get quite sticky.
 
I believe that Kim Jong-Un is playing his 'Get Out Of Jail Free' card by making overtures towards South Korea - but the US and the rest of the world are right to be suspicious of the DPRK's motives.

What they want above all else is to diffuse the threat to their own existence, and although the US are the muscle behind that threat, it is really South Korea that hold many of the cards - an invasion of North Korea wouldn't be possible without full co-operation of the South, hence bringing the South back on side (at least to some extent) will make any serious attack on the North very much harder (as if it isn't hard enough already).

I think that the DPRK will want to strike an agreement with the South to scale back the US military presence in the South in exchange for security guarantees - it sounds like it may have already happened to some extent, but it remains to be seen what the US make of it - it will be (very) hard to persuade the US to effectively pull out of South Korea merely to placate the North; but, on the other hand, the US doesn't appear to stand to gain a great deal more than they would if by their actions they manage to secure guarantees from North Korea about nuclear disarmament and/or a mutual peace treaty of some description. Sadly, neither is (in reality) very likely - does any one believe, for instance, that North Korea will agree to international inspections of their nuclear facilities? Also, without mutual nuclear disarmament (which will obviously never happen), then the DPRK are very unlikely to trust an agreement with the US.

I think the best we can hope for right now is détente, which might allow for the North and South to restart attempts to normalise relations between them. One thing that is arguably more important than the Kim regime's survival is the possibility of re-unification, and that really would make a big difference. It is possible - and perhaps more likely - that the Koreans can find a better long term solution between them, rather than having the US, China, Russia and Japan breathing down their necks the whole time. Indeed, the whole nuclear weapons issue may not have ever arisen in the first place if not for the vested interests of these other nations.
 
I think that would the first time anyone ever got a peace prize for threating to rain fire and destruction.
Oh, right, and pretty sure Trump isnt the first to get NK to the table. I mean, Bush did it, Obama has done it. Pretty sure Clinton has as well. Yet here we are. Looking at a NK with nukes. Seems kinda moot now. We stopped nothing, amd given history, it won't stop anything either. Kim will come to the table, offer some platitudes, get some sanctions lifted then go right back to doing everything they were doing to get them sanctioned.
My personal opinion, they are just buying time. This gives DPRK more time to test and deploy their weapons, more time to get into what they may assume to be a position of power. Then they will go right back to threatening SK, the US, and all the allies inbetween. Because that is literally what they have done time and again, internationally, since the early 90s.
That's why I mentioned "satisfactory outcome" in my response. Clinton, Bush et. al didn't have successful outcomes, that being, total nuclear disarmament and cessation of threats and hostilities to their neighbours on all sides, especially the SK of course. Re-unification under democratic rule, were it to happen under Trump's reign, should grant him a lifetime achievement award from the Nobel Committee or perhaps a new award in his name:sly:
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I think it can be done by the way, all it takes is money, aircraft carriers full of money, food, medical supplies, building materials, oil tankers etc, moving a few military chess pieces a little further away and some other things.. And of course allowing Rocket Man to save face. Without that nothing happens. He's backed himself into a corner and can't come out looking weak and "losing" to the big bad Americans. Can we turn a blind eye to the brutality and savagery of his regime so far in the hopes of a better future? That, as they say, is the hundred billion dollar question.
 
So Trump and Kim agree to meet...
And y'all thought there was no hope...

But as mentioned this is probably a bluff by Kim to get his sanctions lifted and he'll return to normal soon.
My girl said Trump will be the first Presidente to actually meet Kim, can anyone confirm?
 
Thought they already met at the Winter Olympics? :D

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Pretty sure this is the first time that any serving US president has met a serving NK leader so this is pretty big news if the meeting does actually happen.

I do wonder where they would hold it though because you can sure bet it wouldn't happen in NK. It would probably be in a neutral country like Switzerland or maybe in China where both sides would feel reasonably comfortable.
 
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I do wonder where they would hold it though because you can sure bet it wouldn't happen in NK. It would probably be in a neutral country like Switzerland or maybe in China where both sides would feel reasonably comfortable.
I heard on a radio show that Kim rarely if he has ever left NK, due to fear of a regime overtake if he left.
*pure speculation on hosts thoughts*
I'm interested to here y'alls.
I don't think Un will leave NK and I don't believe Trump going to NK is a good idea. SK, maybe?
Thoughts?
 
I heard on a radio show that Kim rarely if he has ever left NK, due to fear of a regime overtake if he left.
*pure speculation on hosts thoughts*
I'm interested to here y'alls.
I don't think Un will leave NK and I don't believe Trump going to NK is a good idea. SK, maybe?
Thoughts?
I can't see them meeting in DPRK or the US - it will have to be a neutral venue. Personally I would recommend Zizzi's restaurant in Salisbury, UK.
 
I am going to guess they will meet in the DMZ on the SK/NK boarder.
Either this or China. I don't think China is stupid enough to do something to Trump and anger USA and I think they're ok with the NK regime. South Korea I don't think would work too well for Kim.
 
I am going to guess they will meet in the DMZ on the SK/NK boarder.

This is probably right. I seem to remember they have some sort of building on the boarder where half of the table is in NK and the other half is in SK.
 
Thats why they use the DMZ. Neither has to cross into the other country. There are buildings that span the border that are already used for meetings between SK and NK. China may work, but thats only if Kim is agreeable. Given there are no reports of him having left NK since becoming prime supreme ruler, i find the dmz more likely.
 
Although they have those 'UN' Blue cabins along the border in the DMZ for this sort of thing it just doesn't seem the right kind of setting for such a high level meeting. It's usually used for lower level talks.

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I can imagine the tension in those rooms are pretty scary with guards from each nation standing in front of the doors on either side of the room.
 
The location has been leaked and it fits in with Trump's past.

Yugemania!
Sunday, May 27
Seoul Olympic Stadium

Steel Cage Match for the title of Craziest World Leader
Loser has to give up all nuclear weapons

WWE Hall of Famer Donald "The Don" Trump Vs. "Killer" Kim Jong-Un (Champion)
Special Guest Referee Vladimir "The Bear" Putin

Undercard to be announced at a later date.

This is what happens when I'm bored at work on a Friday.
 
That's why I mentioned "satisfactory outcome" in my response. Clinton, Bush et. al didn't have successful outcomes, that being, total nuclear disarmament and cessation of threats and hostilities to their neighbours on all sides, especially the SK of course.
They haven't even met yet, we are still a very, very long way away from this kind of outcome. As for total disarmament, we have been down this path before and its no more likely now than it was then.

Re-unification under democratic rule, were it to happen under Trump's reign, should grant him a lifetime achievement award from the Nobel Committee or perhaps a new award in his name
Never going to happen, the man is basically a living God, good luck offering a suitable alternative to that.
 
Never going to happen, the man is basically a living God, good luck offering a suitable alternative to that.
Have America do what we do best, dethrone him and install a government that will actually feed their people...
I know I know, we have a problem finishing the job at times.
Hopefully Trump can finish it first term.
My girl said she'd actually vote for him next term if he can have a successful meeting. We'll see, I heard on the radio Trump wants to see some changes before the meeting even happens.
 
Have America do what we do best, dethrone him and install a government that will actually feed their people...

There's a first time for everything I suppose.

Although I'm not sure you could call it "best" when you're batting zero versus the British and Spanish Empires who actually did so many, many times. Of course, the British and Spanish weren't doing it to "liberate" countries but to capture them as vassal states. But let's be honest, the US doesn't invade countries to liberate the citizens either. The US has been nowhere near the major genocides since WW2, but they're very up for invasions that have political expediency. And painting it as a humanitarian effort sells nicely on the news when trying to convince a US citizenry that has become far more anti-war in the last seventy years.
 
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