I think you're
vastly overestimating how sophisticated the penalty system is.
I believe
@sturk0167 got penalized simply because the game sensed he made contact with a slower car and that the slower car left the track shortly afterwards.
You've basically just simplified my explanation.
Here's a query; if the game doesn't register that the recovering car has just been in a crash, resulting in it slowing down, why doesn't it get a penalty for pushing
@sturk0167 off track?
Why wouldn't PD try to make the penalty system follow real world rules of racing? Every other racing game that tries to simulate real world racing does.
Have you ever tested the leniency of the penalty system? Try running wide, full throttle on a corner that you know you'll get a penalty on for ignoring track limits, Tetre Rouge at La Sarthe is an example. Next run wide on the same corner, except as soon as you leave the track remove throttle and coast back on to the track. You'll find that the game doesn't give you a penalty if you don't have throttle, because you gained no advantage. Another example is if you're on the inside of a corner and get punted from behind, causing you to cut the corner - you won't get a penalty because the game has some form of situational awareness i.e. it knew you cut the corner because of the contact, you couldn't help that/it wasn't your fault.
If the penalty system were so simple that slow car 1 can hit fast car 2, push fast car 2 off of track and give them a penalty, PD would have overhauled it years ago, because that is a serious flaw - just make sure you're going slower and you can push people off track without getting a penalty!
Whereas if you stop and consider how penalties are handed out vs real world, some of them start to make more sense.
But hey, unless you want do deep dive into the actual coding, or force Kaz to talk specifics on a subject he's very tight-lipped about, this is all conjecture so it doesn't matter anyway.