My fat 40gb (soon to be fat 1tb) launch is still working...though I'll admit the online games are a tad quieter than usual.
From what I've gathered, it's not specifically the firmware's inability to deal with leap years, rather the interaction between the PS3 and the PSN. If you've tried programming before, you'll know what happens when machine 1 thinks it lives 24 hours ahead of machine 2 and neither of them are programmed to deal with something like that.
Word is they've got a fix almost done. Apparently it'll go live on the 2nd, failing that the worst case scenario is "to have users download updates to a USB and install from there".
Oh, and if you're looking for a free game / online credit (like MS sent out when XBOX Live went down for...most of the holidays), don't bet on it.
On the other hand, a really messed up LittleBigPlanet character called APACOLYPS3...with model geometry all over the place and textures sideways and some aborted animation and bad clipping.