Russian Invasion of Ukraine
- Thread starter Rage Racer
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Because people don't want to go to war? Because unlike Iraq in 2003 there are definitely weapons of mass destruction and there is no way to ensure Putin won't fire them if things don't go his way. This was known years ago that unless countries try to join NATO, NATO can't provide troops. Moldova should probably push to join NATO while it still can (since Putin can't use the neighboring excuse yet).
Your suggestion is to fight World War III. You want there to be war. The difference between Hitler and Putin is Putin HAS nuclear weapons. You don't seem to understand this.
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NATO are in a very difficult position here. If NATO continue to decline to engage militarily in Ukraine - as most of us seem to agree would be a bad idea - then Putin will have proved his point... that faced with his new, far more aggressive strategy, NATO are understandably reluctant to get directly involved with Russian forces.
The question, however, is how Putin will react to this. If it worked in Ukraine, then why not elsewhere too?
That NATO is not engaging militarily in Ukraine is not simply because Ukraine is not a NATO member, it's because of the risk of triggering WW3. But let's be absolutely clear - there is just as much of a moral case for engagement against Russian aggression in Ukraine as there would be if/when Putin attacked a NATO member state. So NATO are not acting out of moral obligation, even though one clearly exists - and Putin must know that he can stay NATO's hand even when there are other forms of obligation too, i.e. Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
It remains to be seen, but all depends on what Putin chooses to do. God forbid that he decides to call NATO's bluff and attack the Baltic states, but I believe he is likely to unless and until NATO calls his bluff and is genuinely prepared to engage. Meanwhile, Putin can basically leave his enemies guessing and hold military drill after military drill on the borders of the Baltic states until the cows come home.
One must look at what Putin is demanding in the grander scheme of things - that all US nuclear weapons are withdrawn from mainland Europe. What's that got to do with Ukraine? Nothing and everything at the same time. US nukes are already there, but Putin knows that NATO are unlikely to ever use them defending the Baltic states. Some may ask why Putin would do such a thing? But you may also ask, if he can be virtually assured of another military success with virtually no opposition, why would he not do it?
The question, however, is how Putin will react to this. If it worked in Ukraine, then why not elsewhere too?
That NATO is not engaging militarily in Ukraine is not simply because Ukraine is not a NATO member, it's because of the risk of triggering WW3. But let's be absolutely clear - there is just as much of a moral case for engagement against Russian aggression in Ukraine as there would be if/when Putin attacked a NATO member state. So NATO are not acting out of moral obligation, even though one clearly exists - and Putin must know that he can stay NATO's hand even when there are other forms of obligation too, i.e. Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
It remains to be seen, but all depends on what Putin chooses to do. God forbid that he decides to call NATO's bluff and attack the Baltic states, but I believe he is likely to unless and until NATO calls his bluff and is genuinely prepared to engage. Meanwhile, Putin can basically leave his enemies guessing and hold military drill after military drill on the borders of the Baltic states until the cows come home.
One must look at what Putin is demanding in the grander scheme of things - that all US nuclear weapons are withdrawn from mainland Europe. What's that got to do with Ukraine? Nothing and everything at the same time. US nukes are already there, but Putin knows that NATO are unlikely to ever use them defending the Baltic states. Some may ask why Putin would do such a thing? But you may also ask, if he can be virtually assured of another military success with virtually no opposition, why would he not do it?
- 87,668
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- GTP_Famine
The European new car parc was nearly 30% electric in 2021 - up from less than 1% in 2011.
In Europe, power generation was 66% "green" in 2021 - 39% renewable, 27% nuclear. That's an increase from 10% in 2011.
Europe has been rapidly divesting itself from reliance on fossil fuels for a decade. Most of Europe has legislation on the books or coming that will more or less outlaw gas-fired home central heating by 2030, and purely petrol/diesel cars by 2035, resulting in an even more rapid uptake of things like ASHP/GSHP and PHEV/BEV tech.
The time to hold the world to ransom over 10% of its oil supply was ten years ago.
I'm not typing on a phone, but you've also (oooh, shock!) completely missed the point.
It's not about "getting off oil", but vastly decreasing the reliance on it. Oil will still be required to make lots of things, but its number one use right now is shoving into things and setting it on fire to make stuff go or get hot. Demand for that has fallen 60% in a decade.
Danoff
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Thankfully it's not really working in Ukraine.
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Russia does always seem to be advancing and capturing more though, there isn't really any news about Ukraine recapturing anything or forcing Russia away from towns. Siege tactics don't require you to take places if it ends that way. Just hold them up and keep throwing munitions in.
Russia may have massively underestimated Ukraine, but they're still gaining.
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- Simcoeace
Soyboys? Perhaps it's a fitting analogy. Here's what happened when Canadian Conservative Senator, karate black belt Patrick Brazeau challenged Trudeau to a boxing match a few years ago.
Trudeau was fitter, better prepared and better trained than bully boy Brazeau. I suspect the same thing is true of Nato's armed forces. The problem with taking on Russia is the stakes are the highest they have ever been in any conflict in human history. In that sense, it's not even like Europe in the 1930's. Caution & a long term view are possibly the safest strategies. It's unfortunate for Ukraine, but a nuclear exchange - even on a small scale - would be worse.
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Joey D
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Natural gas isn't sold by the barrel. There's barrel oil equivalent (BOE) but natural gas still isn't sold by the barrel. Honest question though, did you just glance at that post, see $750, and assume it meant $750 per barrel of crude oil?
Regarding oil, the higher the price of oil climbs the quicker the transition away from fossil fuels will happen. That's not necessarily a bad thing either. We need to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels sooner rather than later and the best way to do that is with the market. Still, many Western countries have an oil reserve. I'm not too worried about it.
Danoff
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High fossil fuel prices is a good thing. Extreme may not. But high.
As I'm sure you know (but I'm going to say anyway for the benefit of anyone who doesn't), US oil reserves fluctuate based on the price of oil. As the price of oil goes up, we have more oil in the US. As the price of oil goes down, we have less. The reason for this is that a large amount of oil exists in the US that is expensive to tap. The more that oil is worth, the more viable it is to tap.
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- FN_WMedeiros
Ukraine reclaimed Kulbakino Air Base.
Although Russia is definitely advancing in South, and technically winning the war, the more they win, the more they lose. They are winning by brute force (by having more equipment) but astonishingly inneficient and corrupt, losing a ton of arsenal in every front, considering the difference of armed forces size. Their logistics are flawed too. People though they advanced too kickly to Kyiv, Kharkiv, and the southern cities, but forgot how close to the Russian border (or Crimea) those cities are. And even then there are forces carrying 2015 expired ration, and lets not forget trucks and tanks left behind without fuel, or with flat tires due to long exposition to sun...
I still belive the tendency of Russia "winning" the war, but it will be a Pyrrhic victory.
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Dotini
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I have further learned from CNBC the following:CNBC is reporting European spot futures of natural gas at 1000% above one year ago, the equivalent of spot oil at $750 a barrel.
Also,
"FAZ informs us that the Swift sanctions are essentially dead in the water. Only seven banks, representing a quarter of the Russian banking sector, are subject to the sanctions. What happened is that once this sanctions list went through the mill of talks with member states, only this pared-down lists survives. The EU originally promised to hit 70% of the Russian banking system. One reason for the exclusion of Sberbank is the deposits held by savers in the bank’s EU subsidiaries. It would have triggered massive deposit insurance claims.
The reduced ambitions embed an important piece of hard information. It is telling us that EU member states will not be ready to impose transactional sanctions on Russia in areas deemed vital to the EU economy, especially the import of Russian gas, oil and coal. What this will also tell us is that we have no means to crush the Russian economy, as Bruno Le Maire suggested."
EuroIntelligence
www.eurointelligence.com
- 90% of US grade Neon, critical for lasers used in chip manufacturing, comes from Ukraine.
- 33% of global Palladium production used to make electronics/chips comes from Russian mines.
- Fortunately, the industry has astutely stockpiled enough of these commodities to last 6-8 weeks.
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Well, this too 😆. But with so many forces stactionary in the border, many trucks have their tires directly facing the sun, for a long period of time. If they aren't repositioned from time to time, it can create fractures that they will only know when changing the pressure to pass through mud.
Dotini
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Wheat and corn, not a glamorous commodity, is also affected:
"Barely a week into the conflict, wheat prices have already spiked to record highs as traders fear exports from Ukraine, known as the breadbasket of Europe, could slow to a trickle or even halt altogether while Russian forces damage Ukrainian ports. In Russia, the world’s top wheat producer, exports are being interrupted as international companies abandon long-standing business ties and extricate themselves from the country amid massive Western sanctions.
“We’re talking about something that would really disrupt production,” said Joseph Glauber, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute. “The fact that it’s happening in one of the breadbasket areas of the world is what’s so worrisome.”
Even before the war began, global markets were already strained by the ongoing pandemic and regional droughts, which squeezed production and fueled inflation around the world. In the first few months of the pandemic, wheat prices surged by 80 percent, according to the International Monetary Fund. Wheat futures climbed to $10.59 per bushel on Wednesday, the crop’s highest price since 2008.
the economic shocks of the Russian invasion will reverberate well beyond Eastern Europe, particularly for vital crops like wheat. “Look where these wheat exports go,” Croft said. “They go to countries that have underlying social tensions, and we’ve seen issues over cost of living, food prices, commodity prices causing protests before.”
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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens to significantly disrupt the global supply of wheat, sending prices for the vital crop skyrocketing and raising alarm bells among food security experts over its ripple effect on import-reliant countries in the Middle East and North Africa."
foreignpolicy.com
"Barely a week into the conflict, wheat prices have already spiked to record highs as traders fear exports from Ukraine, known as the breadbasket of Europe, could slow to a trickle or even halt altogether while Russian forces damage Ukrainian ports. In Russia, the world’s top wheat producer, exports are being interrupted as international companies abandon long-standing business ties and extricate themselves from the country amid massive Western sanctions.
“We’re talking about something that would really disrupt production,” said Joseph Glauber, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute. “The fact that it’s happening in one of the breadbasket areas of the world is what’s so worrisome.”
Even before the war began, global markets were already strained by the ongoing pandemic and regional droughts, which squeezed production and fueled inflation around the world. In the first few months of the pandemic, wheat prices surged by 80 percent, according to the International Monetary Fund. Wheat futures climbed to $10.59 per bushel on Wednesday, the crop’s highest price since 2008.
the economic shocks of the Russian invasion will reverberate well beyond Eastern Europe, particularly for vital crops like wheat. “Look where these wheat exports go,” Croft said. “They go to countries that have underlying social tensions, and we’ve seen issues over cost of living, food prices, commodity prices causing protests before.”
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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens to significantly disrupt the global supply of wheat, sending prices for the vital crop skyrocketing and raising alarm bells among food security experts over its ripple effect on import-reliant countries in the Middle East and North Africa."
Forget Oil. Putin’s War Is Wrecking the Wheat Market.
Vulnerable countries, especially in the Middle East, rely on grain imports that are now under threat. It’s a recipe for disaster.
foreignpolicy.com
McLaren
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Soy boy is a classic conservative diss when they use it repeatedly like a 10 year old who learned new a swear word. Funny part about it is they probably have a FB page full of tweets and memes about how the US military has gone soft while also advocating US boots on the ground. These people are confused and it doesn't take much other than a post or 2 to determine that.
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Joey D
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I'm sure they have FB pages given that some of my more idiotic family members keep posting stupid memes about the military being "woke". I want to tell them, even if the US military is the wokest military on the planet, they're still likely the best trained and have the best weaponry. It's really weird to see people who had some weird military worship fetish a few years ago now want nothing to do with any of the branches of the military.
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I'm assuming you're just an alcoholic at this point.
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Ministry of Education of the Russian Federation: "Particular attention is paid to how to navigate in a turbulent flow of information, how to distinguish lies from the truth."More interesting stuff for the Russian speakers.
Ðа оÑкÑÑÑом ÑÑоке «ÐаÑиÑники миÑа» ÑколÑникам ÑаÑÑказали, ÑÑо Ñакое ÑпеÑопеÑаÑиÑ
Ð Ñом, ÑÑо пÑоиÑÑÐ¾Ð´Ð¸Ñ ÑейÑÐ°Ñ Ð½Ð° УкÑаине, о ÑпеÑиалÑной опеÑаÑии, коÑоÑÑÑ Ð¿ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð¾Ð´Ð¸Ñ Ð Ð¾ÑÑиÑ, говоÑили 3 маÑÑа на ÐÑеÑоÑÑийÑком оÑкÑÑÑом ÑÑоке «ÐаÑиÑникиizvmor.ru
And...
"We are forcing Ukraine to peace"
Poor students, they will need a complete reboot after that...
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One for the war crimes tribunal....
Obviously this didnt happen because Russia are only hitting military targets... wearing PRESS on their front, unarmed in a car...
news.sky.com
Obviously this didnt happen because Russia are only hitting military targets... wearing PRESS on their front, unarmed in a car...
Sky News team's harrowing account of their violent ambush in Ukraine this week
On Monday, near Kyiv, chief correspondent Stuart Ramsay and his team were attacked. Camera operator Richie Mockler took two rounds to his body armour, Stuart was wounded. Their experience illustrates the scale of the mayhem and violence as Russia's invasion enters a new and deadlier phase.
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On Germany's Eurovision selection show tonight, their special guest stole the show with a truly haunting performance.
2016 Eurovision winner, Jamala from Ukraine, sung her winning song - 1944 - on the show. 1944 is a song written about the Soviet invasion of Crimea in 1944, in which Crimean Tatars were expelled from the region by Stalin, on false allegations of cooperation with the Nazis by the Tatars. In 2016, this song was performed at the Song Contest, and its not-so-subtle reference to Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 resonated with a lot of voters, hence why it was crowned winner that year.
Fast forward to 2022, and Jamala is one of the million+ refugees from her country, which has come under attack from Russia once again. Having fled with her children to Turkey, she was invited to perform her song in Germany. Holding the Ukrainian flag the whole time, this performance of a song written about a Russian leader attacking Ukrainians because they might be Nazis, but really was about a situation happening in modern times is all too chilling and uncanny seeing what is currently happening.
A song which is naturally full of emotion and pain must have been unbearable to perform on such a big stage, less than a week after fleeing her country. Jamala's strength in these three minutes cannot be understated, to get through such a performance without being overcome by emotion is truly remarkable.
2016 Eurovision winner, Jamala from Ukraine, sung her winning song - 1944 - on the show. 1944 is a song written about the Soviet invasion of Crimea in 1944, in which Crimean Tatars were expelled from the region by Stalin, on false allegations of cooperation with the Nazis by the Tatars. In 2016, this song was performed at the Song Contest, and its not-so-subtle reference to Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 resonated with a lot of voters, hence why it was crowned winner that year.
Fast forward to 2022, and Jamala is one of the million+ refugees from her country, which has come under attack from Russia once again. Having fled with her children to Turkey, she was invited to perform her song in Germany. Holding the Ukrainian flag the whole time, this performance of a song written about a Russian leader attacking Ukrainians because they might be Nazis, but really was about a situation happening in modern times is all too chilling and uncanny seeing what is currently happening.
A song which is naturally full of emotion and pain must have been unbearable to perform on such a big stage, less than a week after fleeing her country. Jamala's strength in these three minutes cannot be understated, to get through such a performance without being overcome by emotion is truly remarkable.
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