Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[Keef]

by air.

I'm thinking there would be two launching points, both air and sea. Bombers could fly out of Incirlik AFB in southern Turkey and launch their missiles while still inside Turkish airspace. A CSG could launch Tomahawks from the Aegean Sea and their max range could possibly take them all the way to Kharkiv. Between those two launch points, we could cover the entire Black Sea and most of the current conflict area. Our NATO allies in the area would have to agree to Tomahawks overflying their territory.

Omg dude, it's been 7 days.

It's surreal listening to 99% of you downplaying Russia's offensive. It's amazing how much social media camouflages the truth, because hey, look, hashtag this and hashtag that.. I mean, this guy I'm quoting, literally downplays the massive amount
of land Russia has garnered in a measly 7 days.

It's this mentality that is not helping Ukraine. They are pleading for help while the world says, Ahhh.. no biggie.. Russia's dollar is in the sink and they don't get iphones. Plus, we dumped Russia vodka, so you're good dude...

It's appalling and sad at the same time.

I'm sensing that you're really upset about the conflict. Believe me, we all are. But what Russia has achieved so far is considerably less than what was expected, even by Western intelligence agencies. They're genuinely surprised by the lack of competency Russia is showing.

The lack of help is a political issue. Remember that Ukraine is not a member of NATO or the EU which means there is no agreement with other nations to join an all-out war. And the problem with other nations joining is that it could spark another world war - don't forget that there are plenty of other contentious regions in the world, some of which like the Pacific are of much higher risk than Ukraine. Dedicating resources to the Ukraine conflict leaves other nations vulnerable elsewhere. Gotta pick our battles, and we've drawn the line at NATO's borders.

We might be discussing the what-ifs of NATO and the US getting involved but ultimately if we do actually have to get involved then something has likely gone terribly wrong.

 

[Blood Eagle]

Tomahawk doesn't need a fixed target anymore. It can be fired and directed where to go from real time communication with something like an F35. Anti radiation missiles which the F35 would have for DEAD are designed as such to remember where the radiation was coming from in the event the radar operator turns off their radar, also is capable of loitering in the area until said radar is turned back on and emitting radiation again. But turning off the radar is effective suppression anyways and would allow an invading aircraft into the unprotected area. If someone like the US intervened, SEAD and DEAD would be first priority , then establishing air superiority. F35 can avoid enemy air defenses all together or even if it did go into a protected zone, overwhelm the enemy radar with false returns and electronic countermeasures. So while it might pop up on a radar, it would be very hard to tell which return was the actual F35, what might be a decoy and what might be a false return. If you fire the missile at it, you may be firing at nothing and wasting an expensive missile.

 

[CodeRedR51]

Omg dude, it's been 7 days.

It's surreal listening to 99% of you downplaying Russia's offensive. It's amazing how much social media camouflages the truth, because hey, look, hashtag this and hashtag that.. I mean, this guy I'm quoting, literally downplays the massive amount
of land Russia has garnered in a measly 7 days.

It's this mentality that is not helping Ukraine. They are pleading for help while the world says, Ahhh.. no biggie.. Russia's dollar is in the sink and they don't get iphones. Plus, we dumped Russia vodka, so you're good dude...

It's appalling and sad at the same time.

Did you join this forum to just be a d*ck, or? Please go away.

 

[Obelisk]

Did you join this forum to just be a d*ck, or? Please go away.

They joined in 2019, and apparently didn't post for three years.

 

[Keef]

The Tomahawk can't be launched from planes, the air launched version was canceled I think. For air launched cruise missiles, the US uses either the AGM-86 ALCM or the AGM-158 JASSM. A CSG won't have all the VLS cells filled with Tomahawk cruise missiles, as that would lead to the ships being completely defenceless against air threats. Also given the geographical position of Ukraine, and the Black Sea being too risky for a US CSG to get in, the best way to launch a massive cruise missile attack against the russian forces in Ukraine, would be by air. A single B-52 can carry 20 ALCMs, the B-1 can carry 24 JASSM and the B-2 16 of those. The main challenge would be knowing where the targets are, specially since those missiles were made to hit fixed, strategic targets, not columns of vehicles.

The more likely strategy would probably be a mix between SEAD, and cruise missile attacks, to destroy as many radars and air defence systems as possible. Once air supremacy is achieved, the rest gets easier, as they now could just smash vehicle columns at will.

Tomahawk doesn't need a fixed target anymore. It can be fired and directed where to go from real time communication with something like an F35. Anti radiation missiles which the F35 would have for DEAD are designed as such to remember where the radiation was coming from in the event the radar operator turns off their radar, also is capable of loitering in the area until said radar is turned back on and emitting radiation again. But turning off the radar is effective suppression anyways and would allow an invading aircraft into the unprotected area. If someone like the US intervened, SEAD and DEAD would be first priority , then establishing air superiority. F35 can avoid enemy air defenses all together or even if it did go into a protected zone, overwhelm the enemy radar with false returns and electronic countermeasures. So while it might pop up on a radar, it would be very hard to tell which return was the actual F35, what might be a decoy and what might be a false return. If you fire the missile at it, you may be firing at nothing and wasting an expensive missile.

I assume our missiles are capable of real-time satellite guidance as well? NASIC, the National Air and Space Intel Center is right here in Dayton at Wright Patt. Fortunately for us, the Europeans are currently handling most of the hard work overseas so my buddies are getting off work early . But if push came to shove they'd be staffed 24/7. I imagine Space Force and the European equivalents are already tracking Russian movements constantly. The ships in particular would be fairly easy targets to overwhelm with multiple missiles.

 

[McLaren]

Omg dude, it's been 7 days.

You said he's taken the "entire Southern half of Ukraine". That's not at all true, has nothing to do with downplaying Russia.


Lol, wonder if your IP is out of Palm Beach at Fort Margo.

 

[Obelisk]

The other thing is, if i'm not mistaken, the Russians were expecting a timeline of two days maximum. It is now 3.5 times that timeline.

 

[SassyWhiteDad]

I am Russian. It's not going as Putin planned or expected for sure. I know there has been talks that Russia could deploy a tactical nuke in Ukraine. I think this is unlikely for a number of reasons, one of them being that using such a weapon means that Putin admits to the world that he is incapable of taking Ukraine. This will also cause the countries he considers to be within his sphere of influence to question Russia's power.

Moreover, the Russian soldiers are not getting clear instruction from command. They have been sending videos to the outside world. They are hungry. Morale is low. I speak Russian so I know what they are saying in their videos; videos that you people are likely not seeing or are not being translated to English. A portion of the army was lied to about the invasion (the conscripts). They were told everything was for training.

If there is one silver lining, I believe China is less inclined to invade Taiwan after seeing this. China has expressed more than once that their concern, militarily, that they do not have combat experience and that this was the US's biggest advantage. They are seeing Russia, a country with combat experience, struggling against a much smaller and weaker neighbor. Taiwan will be a much more daunting endeavor since they are surrounded by water and are in a 24/7 state of preparedness. China would have to be willing to lose millions. I think Xi Jinping is having doubts about Taiwan now.

With all that said, one of the most shocking things is the Putin is having Russians invade and attack their brothers. There is no example in history that I can think of that will make this relatable to you all. It's not the same as say having America invade Canada, or Germany invade Austria, etc. Ukrainians are our actual brothers and sisters. Imagine invading your brother's or sister's home, armed. We are ashamed, upset, confused, and shocked. I would argue that, if there is some scenario that Putin sees where Russian interests are advanced with an invasion of Ukraine, then it is NOT actually in the interest of the Russian people.

Slava Ukraini

 

[Northstar]

Omg dude, it's been 7 days.

It's surreal listening to 99% of you downplaying Russia's offensive. It's amazing how much social media camouflages the truth, because hey, look, hashtag this and hashtag that.. I mean, this guy I'm quoting, literally downplays the massive amount
of land Russia has garnered in a measly 7 days.

In order for this move to have "worked" it had to be swift and decisive (They still would have been screwed financially, but at least we would still fear their military). The longer it takes the weaker Russia looks on the worlds stage. They've already lost most of their economic strength due to it and the longer this Ukraine mess goes on it makes them look like the mean dog down the road that froths at the mouth at anyone that passes by but in all reality couldn't defeat a chew toy.

It's not like this is some country half way around the world, it's a bordering country with a small (compared to Russia) military and a capital that's only a short distance from that border. A "military super power" should be able to use it as a training excercise, not get tripped up by... running out of fuel...

How exactly is the rest of world going to be expected to fear Russia when any potential invasion would end up on the side of the road with a jerry can in one hand and using their other to try hailing a ride before they even get close enough to do anything?

It's this mentality that is not helping Ukraine. They are pleading for help while the world says, Ahhh.. no biggie.. Russia's dollar is in the sink and they don't get iphones. Plus, we dumped Russia vodka, so you're good dude...

It's appalling and sad at the same time.

So we're ignoring all the other support the rest of the world has given them? I'm not sure what more they can do without putting boots on the ground, which would basically be the start of WWIII.

 

[Keef]

Apparently Russia have moved a fleet on An-2 biplanes to an airfield near the Ukrainian border. While useful for small troop movements and rough fields, the An-2 has basically zero relevance on a modern battlefield. Which is why some experts think they've been converted into drones and will be used as decoys. Not a bad idea honestly. Whether these drones are armed and/or kamikaze drones, nobody knows. One interesting note is that their radial piston engines have a distinct sound obviously different than a jet or helicopter and unlike anything else in use so I'm not really sure how sneaky these things can possibly be on a battlefield. Honestly they would be more threatening as kamikaze drones because I don't think any AA operator would be silly enough to give up their position to shoot down a piston-powered biplane decoy.

 

[Populuxe]

Apparently Russia have moved a fleet on An-2 biplanes to an airfield near the Ukrainian border. While useful for small troop movements and rough fields, the An-2 has basically zero relevance on a modern battlefield. Which is why some experts think they've been converted into drones and will be used as decoys. Not a bad idea honestly. Whether these drones are armed and/or kamikaze drones, nobody knows. One interesting note is that their radial piston engines have a distinct sound obviously different than a jet or helicopter and unlike anything else in use so I'm not really sure how sneaky these things can possibly be on a battlefield. Honestly they would be more threatening as kamikaze drones because I don't think any AA operator would be silly enough to give up their position to shoot down a piston-powered biplane decoy.

They could be using the biplanes to get the Ukrainian defenses to use their AA against them instead of much more expensive and effective modern fighters. It they've been converted into armed drones, they could do considerable damage for very little investment. If they're drones, they could be used to locate defensive locations simply by flying them around until someone starts shooting at them. Then it becomes a gamble for the Ukrainians. Do we save our ammo and let them go blow up whatever it is they've been aimed at, or do use up the ammo against them and now we have little ammo left to down the really dangerous aircraft?

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

Wonder if Ukraine has any flak cannons laying around? Seems like it would be a good weapon for low and slow skeet shooting.

 

[inCloud]

Bbs, meduza, Facebook, twitter, dw, app store, Google play, Wikipedia, радио свобода banned to some degree. Agony

 

[Tornado]

Omg dude, it's been 7 days.

Omg dude, it's been 7 days and the Russian army haven't accomplished much since the events showed on the dates of the picture you linked.

 

[Grand Prix]

An-2 has a max speed of 258km/h apparently, which is hilariously slow even by 1940s biplane standards. Some 12.7mm machine guns will probably suffice to bring it down, if it's low enough.

Interestingly, it doesn't really have a stall speed. It still has full control even at 50km/h.

 

[Populuxe]

The Antonov An-2 is a fascinating and incredibly versatile plane. It was produced from 1947 to 2001. The Shetsov 9-cylinder radial engine is actually an evolution of an American Wright radial engine. It's been used by dozens of air forces around the world, and there are thousands in private hands as well. The irony is this is being used by the Russian Air Force, but it's actually a Ukrainian company.

Related, Antonov also made the An-225 Mriya, the largest plane in the world. It's been confirmed as destroyed on the ground by Russian forces. It held numerous world records for heavy lifting, transporting everything from main battle tanks to humanitarian supplies around the world.

 

[inCloud]

Russian military using publicly available frequencies for coordination. Not all military, but some companies don't have signal specialists and electronic warfare specialists.

 

[PeterJB]

If Hitler was leading this invasion he would've taken the the whole country by now and probably Moldova and the Baltic states along the way, as well.

 

[Touring Mars]

I'm personally not convinced that Putin's invasion of Ukraine is failing in any way.

The media and most commentators I've seen seem to be under the impression that Putin's aim was to swiftly capture Ukrainian cities and force a quick military win. However, other than some mild inconvenience to the Russian troops and additional expense to the Kremlin, there never was much reason to believe this is the case - and indeed, the actions on the ground appear to back up the idea that this was indeed not the plan at all.

Putin is besieging every major city in Ukraine. Kiev is being attacked but troops have not advanced on the city yet - and yet, the people of Kiev are trapped in underground bunkers already. By the time the Russian troops do attack, the people will already be weak, exhausted and urging their leader to do whatever he can to save their lives. That means surrendering to Putin.

More time does also give the Ukrainian army time to regroup and resupply etc., but Putin's aim here is a war of attrition against the Ukrainian people - Russian troops are as expendable as Ukrainian lives as far as Putin cares, hence he knows they will win militarily eventually.

What other aims does a war of attrition achieve? The main one is indignation of other countries - unable to do anything more thanks to Putin's threat of nuclear retaliation and/or visiting more and more atrocities on the Ukrainian people directly. And as international efforts to stop the war are thwarted, Ukraine's leadership will grow more and more despondent as they see that no-one is coming to save them.

I believe that Ukraine will eventually capitulate to Putin, but not before many thousands of innocent civilians have either been murdered directly by Russian thugs, or will die as a result of the siege of Ukraine's cities.

The West must prepare now for an emboldened and massively aggressive Russia rolling back NATO and US forces and arms across the continent. I fear that President Zelenskyy is correct insomuch as if/when Ukraine falls, Russia will invade the Baltic states as well.

 

[Dotini]

Disturbing footage shows Ukraine's largest nuclear power plant suffering rocket/artillery attack with subsequent fires. US expert scoffs at any danger to the reactors, but worries somewhat about the spent fuel storage facility.

 

[Peppelino]

.. . I imagine Space Force and the European equivalents are already tracking Russian movements constantly.

Yes. It's a fact. BBC reporter already
travelling with Germany based AWAC / JSTAR over Polish airspace - 24/7.
Monitoring everything..

If Hitler was leading this invasion he would've taken the the whole country by now...

Yes, eighty years ago, maybe...
Definetly, not now... Think again...

 

[Mark folsom]

You said he's taken the "entire Southern half of Ukraine". That's not at all true, has nothing to do with downplaying Russia.


Lol, wonder if your IP is out of Palm Beach at Fort Margo.

It's all good my dude Zelensky. We dumped Russian vodka, and they won't be getting the new iphone. Oh and don't worry about your southern ports and stuff.. water access is way overrated. Hang in there bro! Sending love and hugs. 😍😍

 

[Jimlaad43]

The takeover of the Nuclear Power plant may be a major issue with potential for a continent-wide disaster (but with so many fail-safes and lessons learned from Chernobyl, this one will be fine), but for Ukraine itself they have a bigger issue for large-scale internal environmental disaster. Zhaporizhzhia is right next to one of 6 dams along the Dnieper river through central Ukraine. The first is only a few km upstream from the capital, Kiev. If the Russian army is careless or Putin gets particularly vindictive, compromising just one of those dams will cause untold damage within just a few hours. Potentially taking out the Kiev dam alone could overwhelm all dams downstream depending on their systems designed to cope with upstream breaches.

With large cities such as Kiev, Dnipro, Zhaporizhzhia, Kremenchuk and Kherson all in danger.
In such a flat landscape as the Steppe of Ukraine, dam compromises is an easy way to cause pretty fast major devastation.

Does anyone have an idea of who has control of the Kiev dam currently?

 

[Dotini]

Reportedly there is progress in the peace talks, with agreement to establishing safe corridors to get civilians out and supplies in.

 

[inCloud]

So its full size censorship - 100.000₽ or 3 years in jail for peace protest

 

[dacc10]

I assume our missiles are capable of real-time satellite guidance as well? NASIC, the National Air and Space Intel Center is right here in Dayton at Wright Patt. Fortunately for us, the Europeans are currently handling most of the hard work overseas so my buddies are getting off work early . But if push came to shove they'd be staffed 24/7. I imagine Space Force and the European equivalents are already tracking Russian movements constantly. The ships in particular would be fairly easy targets to overwhelm with multiple missiles.

Speaking of tracking forces, yesterday an american E-8 was flying around Europe, plus an RC-135 and an E-3. Today, 2 RC-135 are flying near Ukraine, one in Poland, the other in Romania. Two B-52s flew off UK, crossed danish air space, and are now moving into Germany. Also yesterday, in the US, one E-4 and one E-6B Mercury were in the air, don't know if that's usual, or if it has anything to do with the nuclear threat.

Meanwhile, in Romania, they lost contact with one Mig-21 near the ukrainian border and the Black Sea. Soon after, they sent an helicopter to search for it, which they also lost contact with. Coincidence? The helicopter was found, with 7 death I think. The Mig-21 is yet to be found from what I've seen. If they conclude they were shot down by russian air defences, things might get messy.

 

[Tornado]

We dumped Russian vodka, and they won't be getting the new iphone.

Repeating dumb stuff doesn't make it less dumb, but it certainly has the opposite effect on the one saying it.

 

[Mark folsom]

Repeating dumb stuff doesn't make it less dumb, but it certainly has the opposite effect on the one saying it.

So you left out the part where the southern ports and access to the sea were cut off... Any reason? Ya think maybe Zelensky doesn't give a hoot about iPhones and vodka, but does care about his land and ports and cities being overrun?

 

[Jimlaad43]

What do iPhones and Vodka have to do with this? Your point was lost a long time ago and you're doing nothing to get people on your side.

 

[eran0004]

The support for joining NATO is increasing in Sweden. Latest poll shows that around 50% are in favour now, while around 25% are against.