Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[SMfan]

How much will this situation affect the Russian economy, and after that, the European economy, seeing the EU is a serious importer of Russian goodies..

Our eceonomy has already been affected. Take a look at the USD/RUB exchange rate:
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR
Just select "1Y" in the upper-right corner of the graph to see the long run trend. Granted, it's not just the Crimean crisis, but it fits nicely with other Putin's policies.

 

[eran0004]

Our eceonomy has already been affected. Take a look at the USD/RUB exchange rate:
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR
Just select "1Y" in the upper-right corner of the graph to see the long run trend. Granted, it's not just the Crimean crisis, but it fits nicely with other Putin's policies.

It followed the same pattern as the Euro and the SEK up until about the 10th of January and then it went bananas. The Crimean crisis didn't start until the end of February.

Edit: Comparing with the Ukrainan currency, which has been locked flat against the USD up until the protests began to flip out. At that point it seems to have dragged the Rubel along. So it seems like it's not so much the Crimean crisis that sparked this, but the Ukrainan crisis as a whole. Even before Putin mobilized the Rubel was already affected.

 

[Rage Racer]

USA IMPOSED VISA SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA
BUT TOPOL DOESN'T NEED A VISA

Topol trolol!

P.S. I need it on my model rack. Got a 1:72 BM-27 Uragan rocket launcher recently. The Topol would make the collection just awesome. ^_^

 

[JMR450]

My concern in all of this is for the minority people in Crimea. They are being assaulted, intimidated and some are fleeing to Western Ukraine. It's not right. The Russian majority in Crimea was not at all negatively effected by the change in government in Kiev, their fear of persecution was baseless, but it has been used to force change and displace people who are innocent and peace minded.

 

[Dotini]

My concern in all of this is for the minority people in Crimea. They are being assaulted, intimidated and some are fleeing to Western Ukraine. It's not right. The Russian majority in Crimea was not at all negatively effected by the change in government in Kiev, their fear of persecution was baseless, but it has been used to force change and displace people who are innocent and peace minded.

All kinds of bad things happen in a revolution.

 

[JMR450]

All kinds of bad things happen in a revolution.

Sure, but my point is this revolution would have been far less inhumane if the Russians stayed out. I understand why they are there, but the price paid by innocents should be more alarming for the media than it is.

 

[Rage Racer]

Darth Puter has officially recognized Crimea independent from Ukraine, signing order.
http://rt.com/news/russia-recognize-crimea-independence-410/

 

[SMfan]

It followed the same pattern as the Euro and the SEK up until about the 10th of January and then it went bananas. The Crimean crisis didn't start until the end of February.

Hence my quote:

Granted, it's not just the Crimean crisis, but it fits nicely with other Putin's policies.

 

[JMR450]

Darth Puter has officially recognized Crimea independent from Ukraine, signing order.
http://rt.com/news/russia-recognize-crimea-independence-410/

How is it that reasonable people think a hostile force can come into a country, hold a bogus referendum and then claim it as theirs? I thought the conquests were centuries ago.

 

[Dennisch]

How is it that reasonable people think a hostile force can come into a country, hold a bogus referendum and then claim it as theirs? I thought the conquests were centuries ago.

If the US and EU hold their promise and go on with their sanctions, Putin will find out pretty soon he did something wrong. It is a shame the Russian people will probably be the ones suffering the most when most of the export just grinds to a halt.

 

[JMR450]

If the US and EU hold their promise and go on with their sanctions, Putin will find out pretty soon he did something wrong. It is a shame the Russian people will probably be the ones suffering the most when most of the export just grinds to a halt.

Right, but a countries' sovereignty and the loss of that, should be met with a stiffer response.

 

[Blitz24]

If the US and EU hold their promise and go on with their sanctions, Putin will find out pretty soon he did something wrong. It is a shame the Russian people will probably be the ones suffering the most when most of the export just grinds to a halt.

Isn't he never wrong?

 

[Dotini]

How is it that reasonable people think a hostile force can come into a country, hold a bogus referendum and then claim it as theirs? I thought the conquests were centuries ago.

Crimea is now proclaimed an independent republic, and not (yet) a part of Russia. What you are seeing playing out in front of your eyes is "realpolitik", and not an exercise in fantasy, idealism, or morality. The past, present and future are as alike as three drops of water.

From wikipedia:

Realpolitik (from German: real "realistic", "practical", or "actual"; and Politik "politics", German pronunciation: [ʁeˈaːlpoliˌtɪk]) is politics or diplomacy based primarily on power and on practical and material factors and considerations, rather than explicit ideological notions or moral or ethical premises. In this respect, it shares aspects of its philosophical approach with those of realism and pragmatism. The term Realpolitik is sometimes used pejoratively to imply politics that are coercive, amoral, or Machiavellian.

 

[JMR450]

Crimea is now proclaimed an independent republic, and not (yet) a part of Russia. What you are seeing playing out in front of your eyes is "realpolitik", and not an exercise in fantasy, idealism, or morality. The past, present and future are as alike as three drops of water.

From wikipedia:

Realpolitik (from German: real "realistic", "practical", or "actual"; and Politik "politics", German pronunciation: [ʁeˈaːlpoliˌtɪk]) is politics or diplomacy based primarily on power and on practical and material factors and considerations, rather than explicit ideological notions or moral or ethical premises. In this respect, it shares aspects of its philosophical approach with those of realism and pragmatism. The term Realpolitik is sometimes used pejoratively to imply politics that are coercive, amoral, or Machiavellian.

Interesting take, thank you. I would like to know if this kind of action is tolerated by-in-large by people from inside and outside Russia. I am not seeing similar reactions to the way I feel about this and I am wondering where the voices are. I can't be the only one who finds this situation offensive. I've seen deeper emotional rants over the video game than I have seen here today following this referendum.

 

[Dennisch]

I've seen deeper emotional rants over the video game than I have seen here today following this referendum.

Welcome to the more mature part of the website.
Most of us here know that going into a sweary rant doesn't work so well in a discussion. And we know that all we can do now is wait for politicians to act in this (and many other) situation.

 

[JMR450]

Welcome to the more mature part of the website.
Most of us here know that going into a sweary rant doesn't work so well in a discussion. And we know that all we can do now is wait for politicians to act in this (and many other) situation.

My apologies for how that was worded, I am not seeking emotional rants, I would however like to read about other peoples reaction to this latest development. True, we have no role to play in this but it bothers me if many think the human story here is not worth discussing.

 

[Dennisch]

My apologies for how that was worded, I am not seeking emotional rants, I would however like to read about other peoples reaction to this latest development. True, we have no role to play in this but it bothers me if many think the human story here is not worth discussing.

You are completely right, but all we can do now is discuss the current events, and hope for the best.
If Russia wants to play it their way, expect serious suffering in the coming years for those affected by the situation.
If we can can trust the politicians (....) at least the Ukrainian people should see some western aid heading their way if things go down. The Russians on the other hand, they will most likely see Putin stay in great shape while a lot of them will see empty shelves in the stores.

 

[TenEightyOne]

@RageRacer, be careful what you wish for, the way things are going you might have the 1:1 outside your house soon enough

 

[Chrunch Houston]

Dmitriy Kiselyov, the media director and anchorman, has said on his TV program on Rossiya 1 channel today:

Uh oh.

This reminds me of something...
"We'll bury you!"

And something more:

Oh sh~~.

We already call Kiselyov "the Russian Joseph Goebbels". The "propaganda minister".

This was both on our local radio news earlier today, and our national ABC World News Tonight.

The news media here loves a good fight, it is great for ratings, and the lost plane story is getting a little stale.

We have been giving Ronald Reagan's Star Wars tech to everyone, I hope we kept some for ourselves.

 

[eran0004]

Hence my quote:

The second image suggests that it's got to do with the Ukrainian crisis. The rubel followed the Euro pattern all the way until the Ukrainian central bank couldn't manage the float of their currency anymore and it started it's rollercoast, by which time it dragged the rubel with it. After that point the Rubel follows the Hruynia (however it's spelled, looks like a Pagani ) for a month until the revolution takes place, which has a bigger impact on Ukraine than on Russia.

So the direct cause looks more like a regional uncertainty as a result of the demonstrations in Ukraine. Indirectly Putin's policies may have contributed to that, had he been closer to the EU for instance the Ukrainian president may have followed that path too and the initial demonstrations would not have taken place. But the discontent with the president seems to have been a dormant volcano, so chances are that something else might have kicked in instead.

 

[terminator363]

USA IMPOSED VISA SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA
BUT TOPOL DOESN'T NEED A VISA

Topol trolol!

P.S. I need it on my model rack. Got a 1:72 BM-27 Uragan rocket launcher recently. The Topol would make the collection just awesome. ^_^

These things are scary as hell.

 

[SMfan]

So the direct cause looks more like a regional uncertainty as a result of the demonstrations in Ukraine.
Indirectly Putin's policies may have contributed to that...

Well, guess why people are throwing their rubles away. It's mostly the internal policies that continue to contribute to the poor investment climate and sad living conditions.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Well, guess why people are throwing their rubles away. It's mostly the internal policies that continue to contribute to the poor investment climate and sad living conditions.

Already reported.

Oh, wait...

From what I've heard and read in the UK one of the reasons people are worried about Russian investments is that if you find a good supplier, help build them up, establish trade.... one day you find out they've been "bought out" by 5 identical men called "Sergei" who you can only tell apart by their scars.


EDIT: Putin announces that Crimea have formally invited him to make it "another bit of Russia". He is happy, say the Kremlin, to ignore the fact that he's making a lot of stuff up right now.

 

[Rage Racer]

@RageRacer, be careful what you wish for, the way things are going you might have the 1:1 outside your house soon enough

You probably misunderstood what I wish for. I wish a more complete collection of 1:72 scale Russian "wunderwaffen" on my rack.
And I wish all wars occur only on racks, couches, Internet and computer games. Actually I am a couch soldier (who also had a training with a real AK-74 though).

These things are scary as hell.

It's not scary compared to what they can do to their target.

This was both on our local radio news earlier today, and our national ABC World News Tonight.

The news media here loves a good fight, it is great for ratings, and the lost plane story is getting a little stale.

We have been giving Ronald Reagan's Star Wars tech to everyone, I hope we kept some for ourselves.

^That's what should happen after those words.

EDIT: Putin announces that Crimea have formally invited him to make it "another bit of Russia". He is happy, say the Kremlin, to ignore the fact that he's making a lot of stuff up right now.

This awesome plan works!

1. Wash the brains of your people using media stories about "ethnic Russians being oppressed and in danger" and remind about this land being "historically Russian"
2. Send unmarked Spetsnaz operators to seize the parliament and force it to claim the target area independent from its owner country
3. Send unmarked troops called "self-defense militia" to block the owner country's military objects from activity
4. Carry out a quick referendum (legality of which is not necessary)
5. Recognize the target area independent because "people made their choice" and it will automatically get under your influence
6. ?????
7. PROFIT!
Repeat N times and you'll feel like an Emperor!

So, one "historically Russian land" is now back ("Welcome home, Crimea!").
The next is probably Alaska.

EDIT: Waking up on March, 17th in Crimea and see the salo disappeared somehow, Russian roubles in the wallet, balalaika on the wall, valenki near the bed and where's this bear from?!?

 

[TenEightyOne]

The bear finds you, I think it's part of the deal

 

[Dennisch]

So, the G8 is now back to being the G7, and Japan also will impose sanctions on Russia.

Prepare for financial isolation!

 

[Jet Badger]

Should I start packing? To Madagascar maybe

 

[Ryanswannell]

These things are scary as hell.

I thought the whole thing was a missile, I didn't realise it was effectively a launchpad with a missile inside .
But yeah, I don't fancy seeing anything like that launched in anger .

 

[Dotini]

The second image suggests that it's got to do with the Ukrainian crisis. The rubel followed the Euro pattern all the way until the Ukrainian central bank couldn't manage the float of their currency anymore and it started it's rollercoast, by which time it dragged the rubel with it. After that point the Rubel follows the Hruynia (however it's spelled, looks like a Pagani ) for a month until the revolution takes place, which has a bigger impact on Ukraine than on Russia.

So the direct cause looks more like a regional uncertainty as a result of the demonstrations in Ukraine. Indirectly Putin's policies may have contributed to that, had he been closer to the EU for instance the Ukrainian president may have followed that path too and the initial demonstrations would not have taken place. But the discontent with the president seems to have been a dormant volcano, so chances are that something else might have kicked in instead.

The lines start diverging last June.
By pure coincidence (?) last June was when Obama signed an execute order for a secret military cyber operation: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/mar/13/military-given-execute-order-obama-secret-cyber-mi/

 

[SMfan]

From what I've heard and read in the UK one of the reasons people are worried about Russian investments is that if you find a good supplier, help build them up, establish trade.... one day you find out they've been "bought out" by 5 identical men called "Sergei" who you can only tell apart by their scars.

Welp, yeah. Or you receive a phone call saying: "you have 5 days to accept our generous offer for your great business, you better start packing".

And on that note:

Should I start packing? To Madagascar maybe

This question is an actual thing that has been on my mind constantly for the past 6 or so months.
I still hope that if I'm to leave, it'll happen in a civilised way, but I can't be sure Russia won't go full Iron Curtain in the next 3-5 years.