Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[Grayfox]

I am suprised put(crimea)"in"(mypocket) has not blocked GTplanet since this thread is against his "views" on what I am doing is for the benefit of the Russians people in Crimea.

 

[Rage Racer]

Crimea's annexion to RF is now official, there was a ceremony in Kremlin.

This question is an actual thing that has been on my mind constantly for the past 6 or so months.
I still hope that if I'm to leave, it'll happen in a civilised way, but I can't be sure Russia won't go full Iron Curtain in the next 3-5 years.

Be careful, Peter the piglet.
I consider this, too, but I prefer not to talk about it too much.
"One ticket to New York... Brighton Beach, here I come!"
"Shhh..."

I am suprised put(crimea)"in"(mypocket) has not blocked GTplanet since this thread is against his "views" on what I am doing is for the benefit of the Russians people in Crimea.

The Internet censorship hasn't gone that far yet. My page on VK is full of anti-Putin posts but it's fine.
But who knows what comes to Darth Puter's mind next...

 

[Grayfox]

I don't like Cyrillic.
It's like the buttons you never press on a calculator to me.

No clue in what the letters mean.

 

[SMfan]

Be careful, Peter the piglet.
I consider this, too, but I prefer not to talk about it too much.
"One ticket to New York... Brighton Beach, here I come!"
"Shhh..."

On the one hand, there's a risk, on the other - I feel like, our KGB would be glad to have every person opposing therm just leave the country.

I don't like Cyrillic.
It's like the buttons you never press on a calculator to me.

Those buttons can actually be pretty helpful, y'know.

No clue in what the letters mean.

1. - Peter the piglet found a goddamn GLONASS (Russian GPS analogue) in his goddamn tractor.
2. - Where to: Away from goddamn Russia
3. - Go 150 km N-E
4. - Keep moving in that direction.
5. - You have arrived at your destination. (FSB building)
6. - no translation needed.

 

[Grayfox]

1. - Peter the piglet found a goddamn GLONASS (Russian GPS analogue) in his goddamn tractor.
2. - Where to: Away from goddamn Russia
3. - Go 150 km N-E
4. - Keep moving in that direction.
5. - You have arrived at your destination. (FSB building)
6. - no translation needed.

Russian humor does not make any sense to me, just like British humor.

 

[Rage Racer]

Russian humor does not make any sense to me, just like British humor.

The point is, he tried to run away from "crappy Russia", but the GLONASS led him to FSB (the successor of the Soviet KGB), who knew what he typed into the navigator.

 

[SMfan]

Russian humor does not make any sense to me, just like British humor.

I don't really find that joke particularly funny either. Just something you would say "uh-huh" to.
Also, I don't think it is in any way a typical Russian joke.
Honestly, I wouldn't be able to point out the specifications of Russian jokes, aside from the fact that a lot of them are really kinda sad.

 

[JMR450]

This awesome plan works!

1. Wash the brains of your people using media stories about "ethnic Russians being oppressed and in danger" and remind about this land being "historically Russian"
2. Send unmarked Spetsnaz operators to seize the parliament and force it to claim the target area independent from its owner country
3. Send unmarked troops called "self-defense militia" to block the owner country's military objects from activity
4. Carry out a quick referendum (legality of which is not necessary)
5. Recognize the target area independent because "people made their choice" and it will automatically get under your influence
6. ?????
7. PROFIT!
Repeat N times and you'll feel like an Emperor!

So, one "historically Russian land" is now back ("Welcome home, Crimea!").
The next is probably Alaska.

Nicely summarized, reaffirms my hope that some people understand the details here. If anyone was in doubt, this is a prefect explained narrative.

 

[Dotini]

Ron Paul's thoughts on Ukraine and Crimea:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/opini...e-russia-ron-paul-editorials-debates/6544163/

"Perhaps the U.S. officials who supported the unconstitutional overthrow of Ukraine's government should refocus their energies on learning our own Constitution, which does not allow the U.S. government to overthrow governments overseas or send a billion dollars to bail out Ukraine and its international creditors."

 

[SMfan]

Ron Paul's thoughts on Ukraine and Crimea:

Being an 80% libertarian, I kinda generally support what Paul is saying there, BUT...
1 - The US government didn't overthrow Yanukovich (although they did support the revolution, yes).
2 - what happened in Crimea is nooooot the same as what is happening in Scotland.
3 - I do agree, that dumping 1 billion American dollars isn't the greatest idea for the US generally, but it may not be as bad with Ukraine (or it may be as bad - we need more detailed stats and future programs to decide). The fact is - without some support (not just the money) Ukraine may not be able to sustain even its Crimea-less borders and/or economic "independence" (there's a little more freedom in being with the EU than with Russia).

As for the sanctions - even though I'm glad to see Mizulina lose her s#!t on twitter, those sanctions are purely a political act and have almost no weight in terms of economics. What will have weight, however, is a different strategy for both the EU and the US in terms of acquiring oil and gas - basically trying to shift away from Russia as much as possible. And not even to "show those Russians" - it's a simple minimization of risk.

 

[Dotini]

As for the sanctions - even though I'm glad to see Mizulina lose her s#!t on twitter, those sanctions are purely a political act and have almost no weight in terms of economics. What will have weight, however, is a different strategy for both the EU and the US in terms of acquiring oil and gas - basically trying to shift away from Russia as much as possible. And not even to "show those Russians" - it's a simple minimization of risk.

There is a close-to-zero chance of significantly heavier US sanctions.
Reason: Overwhelming bulk of lobbyists as well as most important Republicans are firmly against. Sorry, but business is business.

It will be up to the revolution and to Europe to sink or swim on their own.

 

[SMfan]

There is a close-to-zero chance of significantly heavier US sanctions.

Perhaps, I was unclear in the last post, but I was not saying that there would be heavier sanctions, or that they would even be necessary.
What I meant was - Russia will suffer because of the changes in European and American resource buying patterns in the near future. Those changes won't be done for political reasons, but instead for purely economic ones.

 

[Akira AC]

What if the majority of people in Crimea really want to detach from Ukraine?

I mean, being a subsidiary region from a country in global economic transition while also being a satellite hold of military assets for one of the G8 members and one the world's superpowers, instead of being a part of a resurgent economy and part of one of the world's superpowers (because Russia is ... after all a superpower in terms of military and economical strength).

Nearly 100% of it's inhabitants speak Russian, 60% of them are ethnic Russians. Putting aside that there have been traces of the region wanting to be integrated with Russia since 1995. To me it seems like cold war paranoia, take Georgia in 2008 with South Ossetia, is still disputed and it was known that Georgia wanted to that regions at ransom because they wanted to stablish a greater territorial control. Yet western media take the same attitude towards it, even though back then it was Medvedev and no Putin who was doing the war, western media wasn't making a big deal of it, but when Putin is found in the exact same position the fears of "Cold War" and all that starts to pour, for some reason (not to say that Putin is some saint or such, because he isn't).

CIS, CSTO, USA, NATO, UN, EU, is all the same, all with their own agendas and own interest, here the majority is just showing how they should be ruled under, give the majority what they want, isn't what democracy is all about?

 

[Dotini]

What if the majority of people in Crimea really want to detach from Ukraine?

...isn't what democracy is all about?

A fine post.

It may well be true the majority of Crimea really wants to detach from Ukraine. BUT, the West says, they cannot do it so fast, and certainly not without the consent of the entire country, not to mention the revolution ruling in Kiev. Democracy depends on playing by the rules established by the rulers, not by the majority obeying their hearts.

Democracy is a pliable concept, depending on whose ox is gored.

 

[DK]

Well, if the majority of Crimeans really did want to detach from Ukraine, they must have changed their minds en masse fairly quickly:

 

[Rage Racer]

@DK
Possibly the propaganda about "Bandera fascists and rusophobes taking the power of Ukraine" worked well (assuming the voting results true). Note that all Ukrainian TV channels were cut off by the "gentlemen" on 1st of March.

 

[Jet Badger]

@DK
Possibly the propaganda about "Bandera fascists and rusophobes taking the power of Ukraine" worked well (assuming the voting results true). Note that all Ukrainian TV channels were cut off by the "gentlemen" on 1st of March.

Kind of similar of what happened here in 1991, the soviet "gentlemen" tried to to "peacefully" take over all the main media broadcasters but due to Gorbachev's "no more pointless civilian killings, mmkay?" policy and the live fence of unarmed crowd of people surrounding the attacked buildings, they failed. Who knows what would've been their next step if they succeeded.

But now since it's pretty much obvious that Crimea is now Putin's for good, the question is will that be the end of it? It's obvious that Crimea joining RF was not entirely it's choice. And Putin's words that "if the west are going interfere in any way with the free choice of the Crimean people, it will be seen as a sign of aggression and we will respond accordingly" give away his position quite clearly. In other words, who's next? Not many spots where the "russian historical ground" card can be pulled off and I don't believe any EU or NATO countries could be in the target. But then a bear is never full after one small fish.

 

[SMfan]

In other words, who's next?

The funny (saddddly funny) thing is the two most possible targets for Russian expansion are "our friends" - Belarus and Kazakhstan. Neither of these countries has enough military power to match Russia and if Putin likes to "save Russian-speaking people" there's plenty of them in both countries. Well, especially Belarus - pretty much everyone speaks some Russian there. Not sure if Putin wants to attempt a takeover any time soon, but if he's to do that, some internal changes will need to preface/follow the invasion. At this point, I doubt that there will be any kinda actual war with anyone in the coming decade, but Russia might try to overthrow a governemnt or two.

 

[Dotini]

Kharkiv and Donetsk are the obvious next targets. I would also rush to defend Odessa, as that would be Kiev's last access to the Black Sea.

 

[Rage Racer]

In other words, who's next?

Alaska.
Then California, and a little bit of Canada on the way to it.

 

[JMR450]

A fine post.

It may well be true the majority of Crimea really wants to detach from Ukraine. BUT, the West says, they cannot do it so fast, and certainly not without the consent of the entire country, not to mention the revolution ruling in Kiev. Democracy depends on playing by the rules established by the rulers, not by the majority obeying their hearts.

Democracy is a pliable concept, depending on whose ox is gored.

Easy for you to wax poetic from your comfy habitat in the Emerald City. As long as your ox is gored the way you like, democracy is ok, isn't it? You live in a democratic country, you get to vote on your leadership, you don't think ALL Ukranians deserve the same, as an entire country?

Would you have then supported the separation of Quebec in the last referendum we had a number of years back. Allow a province to become a separate state, cutting our country in half and hijacking trade within neighboring provinces. It didn't happen because the country as a whole had a say, not just them in Quebec. They have equal representation in the government of Canada and that is how they can influence change.

The Ukranian PM has already stated there will be an election upcoming where representatives from Crimea, and among other states, can run in the election and represent their state. That is democracy. If then you don't like it, then you can move out of your state and go where you like. You don't dissect a country as the radical antagonists wish it to go.

 

[Dotini]

Easy for you to wax poetic from your comfy habitat in the Emerald City. As long as your ox is gored the way you like, democracy is ok, isn't it? You live in a democratic country, you get to vote on your leadership, you don't think ALL Ukranians deserve the same, as an entire country?

The Ukranian PM has already stated there will be an election upcoming where representatives from Crimea, and among other states, can run in the election and represent their state. That is democracy. If then you don't like it, then you can move out of your state and go where you like. You don't dissect a country as the radical antagonists wish it to go.

Thanks for your questions - they're tough ones! I'll ignore the one on Quebec on the grounds it's off topic.

Do I think all Ukrainians deserve to vote on their leadership? Yes. They actually did, and then their elected leader and his party were violently forced out by an unelected revolutionary junta. The current government sitting and ruling in Kiev is not acknowledged as legitimate by Putin's "set of lawyers", as Obama put it. Nor by me. So what you have now is not a democracy but a thoroughly messed-up revolution. The revolution is now trying to stand up a government, obtain financing for Ukrainian debts and current and future obligations, hold an election, reform an economy controlled by corrupt oligarchs, field an army, and fight a war to secure its sovereignty and lands. It may lose on all these counts! The revolution is still in chaotic motion with its antagonists taking countering actions and its cheerleaders in Europe and the US showing very feeble support. Mainly lip service. I would say the future is dangerously uncertain for Ukrainians. They have dipped their toes into violent, unpredictable, uncontrolled revolution. And though now they may come to regret it, the fateful deed is begun but not complete. The Ukrainians are in for a period of struggle and suffering before their dreams are realized - whether of democracy, or even simple peace and prosperity. They've been sold a bill of goods on a defective revolution that appears it may be doomed.

Anyway, that's my opinion. I believe it is informed more by long-term practical realism than by short-lived idealistic fervor.

 

[Dennisch]

So, Putin is now screaming that the sanctions are acts of agression against Russia and will be retaliated.

...I hope the Germans can hold up the fight long enough for me to blow up my rubber boat and paddle to the US.

 

[Dotini]

So, Putin is now screaming that the sanctions are acts of agression against Russia and will be retaliated.

...I hope the Germans can hold up the fight long enough for me to blow up my rubber boat and paddle to the US.

Everything's fine if it's confined to screaming and shouting. It's just bluster. The sanctions talked about so far are literally nothing. There is no real fighting, nor will there be any real fighting, in my opinion. I do not believe there will even be any strong sanctions on either side. They need each other too much.

 

[SMfan]

So what you have now is not a democracy but a thoroughly messed-up revolution.

Again, a revolution, especially a mass revolution can be called a form of direct democracy.
You could realistically say, that if the 2013 Maidan never started, democracy woulda been effectively destroyed in Ukraine in the following years. Now, that doesn't mean that they had to complete a revolution, but the fact that the situation went in such an agressive direction cannot be treated as a responsibility of just one side.

They've been sold a bill of goods on a defective revolution that appears it may be doomed.

Could you explain where exactly you got that idea?
I mean, obviously it's nothing close to perfect and it's not going to be in the near future, but there will be choice and there may be that one right direction to go for Ukraine, or even multiple more or less positive outcomes, with many more possible negative outcomes. The question is - what will be chosen and who will try to be the next generation of politicians there, because the current government may not have a particularly ling political life.

 

[Dennisch]

Everything's fine if it's confined to screaming and shouting. It's just bluster. The sanctions talked about so far are literally nothing. There is no real fighting, nor will there be any real fighting, in my opinion. I do not believe there will even be any strong sanctions on either side. They need each other too much.

Yeah, that's what I figured as well. I don't see either side tossing the first bomb. I think the Ukrainians already gave the Crimea up as they are calling back their soldiers and families who want to leave.

Anybody want to place a bet on the next piece of land Russia will claim?

 

[Dotini]

Could you explain where exactly you got that idea?

Good post and questions.

My idea stems from the fact that predictable, elementary Russian actions were not factored into the plans of the revolutionaries. Worse, they did not plan on the tasks required for sustained success much after the initial one of toppling the existing regime. They need good people, money, weapons, an army, full legitimacy, and control over the country. They have none of it. Now you have revolutionaries, nationalists, oligarchs and simple hooligans arguing like a pack of fools as to what to do. I hope Victoria Nuland is laughing loudly at her cosmic joke, and that Barack Obama is very satisfied indeed with his State Department.

 

[JMR450]

There has already been one death in Crimea and yesterday a number of Ukrainian soldiers were taken hostage by a pro Russian mob. The first shot may not be fired by the West ( The Russians have already fired warning shots at international observers) but how long can you expect the Ukrainians to remain passive? All it takes is one to fight back against the Russian invaders and thugs and the whole thing could blow up rather quickly. I see it as a tinderbox and I do not think it is all bluster. The politicians in Russia and the West can't control the human drama unfolding on the ground.

 

[Jet Badger]

The ukrainian soldiers in the naval base in Crimea have refused to serve to RF and left to the mainland. Ukraine has promised support for families that left their homes in now annexed Crimea but ofcourse Ukraine itself isn't very financially stable right now. The Crimean region brought around $3 billion a year to the budget as it used to be an attractive place for tourists. Russia also pretty much took half of Ukraine's naval fleet including a submarine and everything else that was on the land though Ukraine is now to reposess all RF factories, companies and other belongings that are on it's land as a response.

 

[JMR450]

Glad to hear the soldiers were released. I find it unthinkable the Ukrainians will remain completely passive as this unfolds but if they are it may negate more bloodshed. Going to have to see what the Russians do next.