Russian Invasion of Ukraine

  • Thread starter Rage Racer
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The real question is whether, or when, tanks will roll across the Russian border through Kharkiv and Donetsk all the way to Moldova, cutting Kiev off from the Black Sea.

I said this on March 3rd.

Since then I've added Kiev itself to Putin's "to-do" list. I think he's on something like a 5 year plan, though certainly the fateful stroke could come much, much sooner.
 
She looks something like Daenerys Targaryen, the Dragon Queen. Bring you to ecstasy with one hand, flay you with the other! :drool::crazy:
Imo she looks like just another your average next-door neighbour except blonde (if that's natural color), those are kinda rare here.
 
ArmA III: DLC "Polite troops"
p7FpP_Bw0wo.jpg


She looks something like Daenerys Targaryen, the Dragon Queen. Bring you to ecstasy with one hand, flay you with the other! :drool::crazy:
7j0jpUalCTU.jpg


EDIT: :lol:
 
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Does word 'poklon' mean 'gift' in Russian? Here it does, which makes it a little funny.

No, it's 'bow down'.

I'd bow down to her anytime if you know what I mean.

I do know what you mean, eh? Eh? Phwwoaarrr, I do know hehehe eh? eh? Say n'more guvnor, eh? ;)

Oh, sorry, I normally try to be less British when I'm using the internet.

She looks something like Daenerys Targaryen, the Dragon Queen. Bring you to ecstasy with one hand, flay you with the other! :drool::crazy:

That's too much too early man, she needs a simple double entendre. Perhaps you could give her one?

Back on-topic; as we've seen the news is covering the "buildup" of Russian troops at the border, how credible is it that Putin may move further? He says he's not interested in invading places. Now I'm not a qualified diplomat but I think most people would say he does have some form in that regard, doesn't he?
 
Back on-topic; as we've seen the news is covering the "buildup" of Russian troops at the border, how credible is it that Putin may move further? He says he's not interested in invading places. Now I'm not a qualified diplomat but I think most people would say he does have some form in that regard, doesn't he?

Putin could, militarily, easily take eastern Ukraine complete to Moldova, and even Kiev for that matter. I'm hoping he prefers a diplomatic solution. I think his best hope is for the Ukraine military establishment to turn against the revolution and arrest them all, then itself take control of Ukraine entire. I'm operating on the assumption the Ukraine military culture has a great affinity with Russian military culture.

In any case, the Ukraine lays open and ripe for the plucking. They are defenseless, and there are few to defend them. The revolution has opened a Pandora's box it cannot close.
 
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Back on-topic; as we've seen the news is covering the "buildup" of Russian troops at the border, how credible is it that Putin may move further? He says he's not interested in invading places. Now I'm not a qualified diplomat but I think most people would say he does have some form in that regard, doesn't he?
There's an opinion that this build-up is meant to scare Ukraine and the EU, so that later they could accept the takeover of Crimea with more ease.
I feel like that is the option for now, but Putin may turn to something different if the situation (or his opinion of it) changes.


Putin could, militarily, easily take eastern Ukraine complete to Moldova, and even Kiev for that matter.
Well, whilst the Russian forces would clearly have the advantage in a fight with Ukrainians, it wouldn't be another case of Crimea. If Russia decides to invade Ukraine, there will be a lot of blood. Also, if there's a real risk of such invasion, I wouldn't be surprised to see NATO forces in Eastern Ukraine, well if they get there fast enough.
I'm hoping he prefers a diplomatic solution. I think his best hope is for the Ukraine military establishment to turn against the revolution and arrest them all, then itself take control of Ukraine entire. I'm operating on the assumption the Ukraine military culture has a great affinity with Russian military culture.
Dawg, stop assuming stuff, pleeeease. I don't wanna sound like a total d!ck, but I just can't, sorry.

Putin has pretty much done all he could to unite Ukraine against him.
None of the Ukrainian forces are even thinking about turning.

In fact, if you wanna talk about culture, the need for independence is deep in the minds of most Ukrainians.

AND, if you wanna talk about a military interruption, it didn't happen during the events of Maidan, and the Minister of Defence specifically refused to take any action. Later he was replaced by Yanukovich with 'his man', but it was too late.
 
None of the Ukrainian forces are even thinking about turning.

I think maybe 80% of the Ukraine forces in Crimea have decided to switch sides. That is where their families live. Supposedly, they can come across with equal rank and substantially higher pay.
 
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Putin could, militarily, easily take eastern Ukraine complete to Moldova, and even Kiev for that matter.

He could, as could a band of citizens (as we've seen).

In a military move to Kiev he would surely finally incur the wrath of NATO?
 
In a military move to Kiev he would surely finally incur the wrath of NATO?
No; Ukraine is not a NATO member. Neither is there any stomach in the US or Europe for a losing military adventure in eastern Europe. Oh sure, there will shouting, screaming and great gnashing of teeth amongst the neocons and neoliberals. Let them stew. Though Kiev is his goal, I doubt Putin will need tanks to take it when he has political and economic options to achieve the same goal bloodlessly.
 
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No; Ukraine is not a NATO member.

That's academic, NATO can still act with or without UN resolution (link)

Neither is there any stomach in the US or Europe for a losing military adventure in eastern Europe.

I don't think the result of a conventional NATO .vs. Russia territorial battle in Ukraine is in too much doubt; the combined NATO forces would (eventually) overcome the Russian forces. That would be at a huge civilian cost and in truth would be an unlikely occurence; Russia will be joined by allies leading, potentially, to a global escalation.

Putin is not a good man, but nor is he a stupid one. He understands that biting is easier than chewing and, for now at least, he holds the territory that is militarily so vital to Russia's long-term protection. He knows that Europe and North America are going to use financial means hurt Russia badly but he also knows that they won't dare to completely starve the bear.

Don't underestimate any European's stomach for a fight* when they become annoyed enough, that's what started this whole thing... ish :D

The point of invading places always is, or should be, national interest.

Indeed, and it always is. At least it always is according to the relevant Commander in Chief. ;)


*Apart from the French or Spanish, between about 1.30 and 4. And the British during tea. Or lunch. And the Belgians, ever. And the Dutch, because they have great gear, give fantastic demos and then just park in a wadi 40 miles from the front shooting dice and practicing guitar. Don't mess with the Germans though.
 
You known, the more I dig up this split, the more I find information in both western and eastern media the more evidence I find that part of the coup e tat group was indeed composed by a Nazi political party.

Think about that for a second, and how is not nearly mentioned in western media, If I were to be governed by a Nazi-forced stablish government, I would also like to be annexed to a country that offers actual safety against these threats.

Russia has it's own military interests in Crimea, like naval and air force bases, so it's not protecting people, still is quite unnerving to see how all of this hindered from the majority of population worldwide just because it affects government interests. How come the US starts to negotiate with them without researching who they are first.
 
You known, the more I dig up this split, the more I find information in both western and eastern media the more evidence I find that part of the coup e tat group was indeed composed by a Nazi political party.

Think about that for a second, and how is not nearly mentioned in western media, If I were to be governed by a Nazi-forced stablish government, I would also like to be annexed to a country that offers actual safety against these threats.

Russia has it's own military interests in Crimea, like naval and air force bases, so it's not protecting people, still is quite unnerving to see how all of this hindered from the majority of population worldwide just because it affects government interests. How come the US starts to negotiate with them without researching who they are first.
Pretty much the issue with many revolutions or planned revolutions. Pretty sure that some countries were not ready to have any government overthrown and it took the country back 20-30 years.
 
Russia has it's own military interests in Crimea, like naval and air force bases, so it's not protecting people, still is quite unnerving to see how all of this hindered from the majority of population worldwide just because it affects government interests.
Not only military interests. There are also other causes:

2. Most of the Russian people always wanted Crimea in RF since 1991 because it's a "historically Russian land", Crimean population being mostly Russian-speaking, and Sevastopol is the hero city, "our grandfathers were heroically defending it twice (during the Crimean War and WWII), we shouldn't lose it! And now we can't give it up to the Nazis taking power of Ukraine!"

3. After annexion of Crimea, Putin's rating raised unbeliveably high, and much more people support him now (see above why). So he doesn't need to fake the next election results, lol.

4. Crimea always were the balls that Russia used to pull Ukraine by. A country with territorial questions cannot join EU or NATO, so Putin could just say "we have something unclear about Crimea" and Ukraine can't join anything. Now, Ukraine does not recognize Crimea as a part of RF (certainly), which makes the "territorial question" even sharper.

5. RF used to give Ukraine a discount for the gas in exchange for hosting a naval base in Sevastopol. Now, there are no more Russian troops on Ukrainian territory (lol), so there's no more discount, pay the full price! *trollface*
 
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Crimea always were the balls that Russia used to pull Ukraine by...

Comrade, does this look to you like a man who touches balls?

Putin1.jpg


Does this look to you like the office of a man who touches balls?

PutinsOffice.jpg


Honestly, what an image you present with that statement...but what a perfect description :D
 
If they mean Pridnestrovie, then - maybe.
Actually, Russian troops are already there (for a pretty long time already), but now there is a law project being developed to annex Transnistria to RF.
I don't know if they would move on Transnistria, though. They wouldn't get anything out of it except for an economic headache. Moldova is Europe's poorest nation, and Transnistria is Moldova's poorest region. Putin has gone out of his way to characterise the annexation of Crimea as Russia correcting an historical wrong, but as far as I am aware, there is no such sentiment about Moldova. And while there might be a movement within Transnistria that would like to return to Russia, it is a minority. Russia would have a hard time putting up the pretense of legitimacy that they have in Crimea. The only strategic value in Transnistria would be to put pressure on Kiev, but it would mean invading a soverign nation and putting themselves on a narrow strip of land between the EU, NATO and the Ukraine.

I have a friend who is Moldovan, and to hear her tell it, Transnistria is Moldova's problem, and that's the way Moldova likes it.
 
Comrade, does this look to you like a man who touches balls?

Putin1.jpg
He tore these balls off Ukraine, and now he's got more balls than ever, but Yatsenyuk is now a castrate. :lol:

A funny fact: Yatsenyuk is often called Yaitsenyuk in jest ("yaitsa" - balls). :D

Does this look to you like the office of a man who touches balls?

PutinsOffice.jpg
This doesn't look like an office at all. ;)

Meanwhile: Oleksandr Muzychko (aka Sashko Bily), one of the leaders of the Right Sector and a member of UNA-UNSO, the man who threatened the local authorities with a gun, was killed in Rovno.
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http://rt.com/news/sashko-bily-dead-reports-013/
 
I think maybe 80% of the Ukraine forces in Crimea have decided to switch sides.
Considering the fact that the biggest Crimean bases refused to give up, I'm pretty sure it's not 80%. It looks more like 40% at max to me.
That is where their families live. Supposedly, they can come across with equal rank and substantially higher pay.
The thing is, those who did swithc sides thought of themselves as Russians with a Ukrainian passport. You can't expect these kinda dudes to be high in the hiearchy of the Ukrainian military, let alone be the majority there.

Russia 10% increase in capital outflow as, we're told, investors become increasingly nervous about the possible effects of world sanctions. I have a pretty basic understanding of economyonomics but imo this was fairly predictable.
Well, it's actually relatively stable now. The trend is even somewhat positive. After being close to the 37 RUB mark, USD is now lower than 36 Rubles (suppose I should order some clothes from America or sumn:D).
 
Meanwhile: Oleksandr Muzychko (aka Sashko Bily), one of the leaders of the Right Sector and a member of UNA-UNSO, the man who threatened the local authorities with a gun, was killed in Rovno.

Great catch, Rage Racer! 👍
It's a classic sign of "progress" in any revolution when it begins *"to devour it's own children".

*"The original revolutionaries, once they are mostly successful, are now worried about some future revolutionaries starting a different revolution, to redo the society once again. To the original revolutionaries, what they believed in was right. So, what's the need for another revolution, they think.
So, they do not want another revolution after their revolution, or a revolution within their revolution. In the chaos of their revolution, they have the incentive and means to wipe out anyone they think differs from their viewpoint. In the same chaos, someone else can wipe out the original revolutionaries, and hijack the revolution. The incentive of money, power, women, and future good life is far too much to resist."
 
"Now is known all over internets".

That's some propoganda right there. I love the "But I've got cancer!" X-Factor music when she denies any aspiration to anything other than virtuous and true attorneydom.

This is one of Putin's greatest moves ever. No elderly drunk Crimean will be able to resist her, understand why, or realise where the gunfire is coming from.
 
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