Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[Keef]

And I suppose the West is mad about Russia "taking" these lands because they still think Russia is the big bad bear in the woods who is out to get them? I don't understand the logic. Russia is not our enemy. I don't understand how you can be upset that people who want to be part of a different country are taking the proper steps to become part of that country.

 

[Rage Racer]

Yes, the West is demonizing the "red bear" - "Agressors! Invaders! New Cold War! Or even WW3!". And Ukrainian media is telling idiotic stories like "Russian soldiers rape girls in Crimea!" or "people in Rostov want to join Ukraine!", lol.

But Russian officials lie, too. Putin told that those armed Gentlemen (c) "have nothing to do with the Russian army" and "this equipment can be bought in a store" (especially the Ka-52 gunships, lol), calling the soldeirs "Crimean self-defense force". The takeover of Crimea was bloodless, but still dirty - seize of the parliament, airports, blocking military units from their legal activity, blocking Ukrainian media channels...
And the TV is full of stories about "Russian-speaking people being prosecuted and even assaulted, and running away to Russia!", which are far from being true, too.

The truth is somewhere in the middle. Informational warfare is being carried out by the both sides. Be careful to any info coming in.

 

[SMfan]

And I suppose the West is mad about Russia "taking" these lands because they still think Russia is the big bad bear in the woods who is out to get them? I don't understand the logic. Russia is not our enemy. I don't understand how you can be upset that people who want to be part of a different country are taking the proper steps to become part of that country.

I feel like you're trying to go against the too heavy anti-Russian rhetoric, buuut what you said in this post isn't very well-balanced either.
Obviously, the idea that Russia is gonna militarily go against the EU is outright stupid. Also, RF doesn't want to break any major natural resource deals, nor do any European countries.
In addition, it seems that most Crimeans weren't against joining Russia, so they were not actually taken hostage or whatever.

However, Russia did literally annex Crimea (territory-wise) by force and block all Crimea-Ukraine roads.
And, about "the proper steps to become part of that country" - there kinda were none. There was that mighty effed up referendumand, that's it. Nothing except the fact that Crimea would be a part of Russia was actually figured out, so they are only now trying to kinda-sorta deal with the transition process.

Finally, whilst you may not see Russia as an enemy, the sad truth is, most Russians do see the US as the enemy, thanks to our super-awesome media reinforcing the fear and hate from the Soviet era. Granted, if for some inexplicable reason the same media start saying that Americans are our brothers, and we should unite, most people would go along with that as well, maybe after some more time.

__________________________________________

Now, all of those negative things about Russia don't make either the EU, the US, or any other places on Earth perfect. All countries have their problems, and politicians tend to be be horrible hypocrits. Also, most reports of political events in other countries are highly inacurate, because of bias, and general lack of info.

I come off sounding very, anti-RF in this, but I was just trying to balance out your view.

 

[Dotini]

Entertaining physical workouts on the floor of the Ukraine parliament, outwardly appearing to be fistfights, prepare the parliamentarians for resistance against invading Russian infantry.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/0...arliament-brawl-as-russia-warns-of-civil-war/

 

[Rage Racer]

Entertaining physical workouts on the floor of the Ukraine parliament, outwardly appearing to be fistfights, prepare the parliamentarians for resistance against invading Russian infantry.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/0...arliament-brawl-as-russia-warns-of-civil-war/

What if I tell you that this is a completely normal situation in the Rada?
Ironically, Vital Klitchko, the Udar party leader and a professional boxer in the past, never fights here.

 

[SMfan]

What if I tell you that this is a completely normal situation in the Rada?
Ironically, Vital Klitchko, the Udar party leader and a professional boxer in the past, never fights here.

I'm sure that's for the best.

 

[Dotini]

What if I tell you that this is a completely normal situation in the Rada?
Ironically, Vital Klitchko, the Udar party leader and a professional boxer in the past, never fights here.

Two hundred years ago, American politicians fought on the floor of the Congress. Aaron Burr, sitting Vice-President to Thomas Jefferson fatally wounded former Treasury Secretary Alexander Hamilton in a duel after the latter had accused the former of pedophilia.

 

[Rage Racer]

Meanwhile:
Pro-Russian protesters in Kharki(o)v throwing stones in a police bus came from another region (Mykolaiv).

 

[prisonermonkeys]

And I suppose the West is mad about Russia "taking" these lands because they still think Russia is the big bad bear in the woods who is out to get them? I don't understand the logic. Russia is not our enemy. I don't understand how you can be upset that people who want to be part of a different country are taking the proper steps to become part of that country.

I'm struggling to get my head around that one, too. Sure, there's the suggestion that the Russians have been stirring up protests, but if that has been their plan all along, it means they are relying heavily on public sentiment. Without that support, they would not be able to move on the Ukraine.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Vital Klitchko, the Udar party leader and a professional boxer in the past, never fights here.

We had John Prescott, similar thing really... although he DID punch a voter and effectively win the election.

Russia is still the enemy - if they weren't then we wouldn't spend so much time and effort protecting ourselves against their ongoing attempts at industrial and political espionage, we wouldn't require specifically target military deterrents and we've have a history of genuine friendliness. That isn't the case and for very good reason - Russia continues to be ruled by a militarised pseudo-elected chosen few with a very specific isolationist agenda. You can argue about how corrupt elections are in general but in Russia all comedy is off - they do election fraud at a professional level.

 

[Rage Racer]

Yatsenyuk: I'll be the president, okay?
Klitschko: I'll punch you in the face, okay?!
Tyahnybok: Any ideas how can I fool these two?...

There's a rumor that Dr. Ironfist was asked to fight in the Rada, but he refused and said: "No, I won't fight for free! My punches are very expensive!".

Russia is still the enemy - if they weren't then we wouldn't spend so much time and effort protecting ourselves against their ongoing attempts at industrial and political espionage, we wouldn't require specifically target military deterrents and we've have a history of genuine friendliness. That isn't the case and for very good reason - Russia continues to be ruled by a militarised pseudo-elected chosen few with a very specific isolationist agenda.

What do you mean by "militarised"? The military culture? Yes, it stayed from the Soviet Union, I am a militarist in some way, too. But I don't see anything bad in this. If a country improves its military power, this is only good. If you want peace - be ready for war. A country that doesn't want to feed its own army, will be feeding someone else's (c).

I also don't think that the government is isolationist. Isolationists don't host Olympics.
They just do some things that the world society doesn't like, and don't care about the world's opinion.

You can argue about how corrupt elections are in general but in Russia all comedy is off - they do election fraud at a professional level.

Speaking about the president election of 2012, I don't think it was much of a fraud. The Crab may be an asshole in some ways, but we have to admit that there was no better candidate than him. Prokhorov is an oligarch with suspicious past, Zhirinovsky is a clown, Zyuganov is a commie, and Mironov is just a stranger.
Putin is supported by very many people, my parents voted for him, too. No wonder he could win this fairly.

But the 2011 parliament election was full of "LOL" and "WTF?!" moments. Almost none of the people who I know voted for United Russia (aka "the Party of Rogues and Thieves), but they got the most chairs in the Duma, and "146%" is still a widely known meme.

 

[terminator363]

Meanwhile:
Pro-Russian protesters in Kharki(o)v throwing stones in a police bus came from another region (Mykolaiv).

That was goddamn freaky, hell I'd be ******** myself if I was the driver. It's like a zombie apocalypse.

 

[Rage Racer]

At least they don't throw Molotov cocktail bottles like Maidan fighters in Kiev did.

 

[JMR450]

At least they don't throw Molotov cocktail bottles like Maidan fighters in Kiev did.

The police members in the van were not trying to kill them like the government forces in Kiev were.

 

[Rage Racer]

The police members in the van were not trying to kill them like the government forces in Kiev were.

It's not that simple. There's some info coming up, about snipers who shot at both sides and provoked the massacre. When the rebels were shot with sniper bullets, they started to attack with their guns (some of them had hunting shotguns and rifles), and the Berkut police force faced gunfire, too, so they were permited to use lethal force later - AK's and combat shotguns.
However, this info is questionable, too. There are proofs that the cops had (and used) snipers, too.

But anyway, Molotov cocktail was widely used a long time before the police started applying lethal force and anyone died.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Satellite photos of Russian military build up on Ukraine's Eastern border. Russia say they were taken early last year during exercises, NATO say they're all current or less than a month old.

In fairness I wouldn't believe the US or UK governments to tell me that this was the case but I would trust Rasmussen (from NATO).

Linkski

Not everyone on Team Russia is so well prepared of course;

 

[VolkswagenX]

W

Satellite photos of Russian military build up on Ukraine's Eastern border. Russia say they were taken early last year during exercises, NATO say they're all current or less than a month old.

In fairness I wouldn't believe the US or UK governments to tell me that this was the case but I would trust Rasmussen (from NATO).

Linkski

Not everyone on Team Russia is so well prepared of course;

Wouldn't be the first time NATO supported forged evidence.

 

[TenEightyOne]

W-wouldn't be the first time NATO supported forged evidence.

Citation? I'm guessing you're referring to the Serbian war?

 

[Rage Racer]

@TenEightyOne
Remember, there's an uprising going on in the east of the country (Donetsk, Kharkiv and Luhansk). The protesters are flipping at the new government, building barricades just like their opponents in Kiev did, seizing governmental buildings, destroying Ukrainian symbols there and waving Soviet (red stars with sickle and hammer, lol), singing Soviet anthem (trolol!). Kiev is butthurt and sends more police units from other regions (because the local are no more loyal) to suppress the protests, but they face resistance from the "counter-revolutioners" (see the bus attack video above). Things are getting tense.

If they get too hot, someone uses lethal force and blood gets shed, the RF government may throw the "Gentlemen troops" a bone and start the "peacekeeping operation for protecting Russian people". Like in South Ossetia, where Georgian government used rockets and artillery on the "separatists".

I'm 99.999% sure that the plan of invasion to Ukraine is already developed and approved by the Genshtab, and ready to enforce in any time.

 

[TenEightyOne]

@RageRacer, in truth that's what worries me most, the potential for a localised flashpoint. I actually think Russia is displaying might rather than intention although they'll have Orders of Battle to cover all kinds of scenarios. Including the complete annexation of Ukraine, as you pretty much say.

That doesn't mean they're likely to fulfil any of those plans but they'd be foolish not to prepare for them and, in fairness, to defend themselves if the time came.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

I don't think the total annexation of Ukraine would be possible. They were able to maintain the illusion of legitimacy in Crimea by playing up to public sentiment, and the same strategy seems to be in play in Donetsk. But as they get closer to Kiev, they will face more and more opposition, both militarily and from public opinion.

 

[Dotini]

...the complete annexation of Ukraine...

Somehow I doubt the complete annexation of Ukraine is in the Russian playbook. But I can understand the appeal of an annexation of the industrial east which leaves the west "slowly twisting in the wind", responsible for the gigantic sovereign debts, lacking access to the Black Sea, and hopelessly trying to reassemble the broken eggs of fascists, reforming idealists and corrupt oligarchs.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Fail to prepare and prepare to fail, they'll have had invasion plans for most places for a long time... as will all countries of any military scale.

Some plans are just a little nearer the top of the pile than others right now

 

[Rage Racer]

I actually think Russia is displaying might rather than intention although they'll have Orders of Battle to cover all kinds of scenarios.

Putin has already recieved a permission from the Federation Council to send troops to Ukraine (that was after the visit of "polite armed tourists" to Sevastopol, lol), which means, he assumes the invasion possible. Definetly.

Including the complete annexation of Ukraine, as you pretty much say.

No, you can't annex an area against the will of the local population. If you're not Hitler, lol (Putin, I think, is not).
The occupants of Donetsk are Russia-friendly, not sick with nationalism and wouldn't mind joining RF (and Crimeans were just happy to do it). But if The Crab gets his pincers to Western Ukraine (Lviv, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk, etc), he will face resistance. He'd have to lock 70% of the local population in concentration camps to make Galicia a loyal part of Russia.

Besides, this is just unreasonable. Possible benefits from doing that wouldn't compensate the problems.
Crimea was very tasty for RF (I already told why). And Donbass is too (but not as tasty as Crimea) - another "historic Russian area", and contains lots of coal deposites. Losing such a great area of heavy industry and coal mining would leave Ukraine with no pants (there's a common opinion that "Eastern Ukraine feeds the Western", and it's not far from being true), so Kiev won't give it up easily. But the locals want to show that they're stronger than the "junta" of Kiev.

They were able to maintain the illusion of legitimacy in Crimea by playing up to public sentiment, and the same strategy seems to be in play in Donetsk.

The legitmacy of the Crimean referendum could have been questionable, but there is one solid fact: most of the locals were happy to join RF. And they always wanted to.

My Ukrainian friend (from Kiev) says, "Maybe not 93% as the referendum showed, but at least 60% always wanted it."

 

[prisonermonkeys]

The legitmacy of the Crimean referendum could have been questionable, but there is one solid fact: most of the locals were happy to join RF. And they always wanted to.

That's my point. If this is Russia's strategy, it has one gaping flaw: it relies on public opinion. They would have a very hard time passing an annexation off as "what the people want" in a region opposed to Russia. And even if they annex all of the parts of Ukraine that are at least 50.1% in favour of joining Russia, that won't give them any advantage over the rest of the country.

 

[TenEightyOne]

@RageRacer, I wasn't saying that any plan was particularly credible or feasible, I was more saying that the job of any armed force is to have a plan to cover every extreme eventuality. A "defensive" outward push involving the default annexation of one or more independent territories would be included in Russia's plans, just as they would be in the plans of any large nation.

I quite understand why it's something that's very unlikely to happen. That I hope is very unlikely to happen...

 

[Rage Racer]

Check this out. Pro-Russian activists assaulting a police HQ in Slaviansk, Donetsk Oblast.

Look at the gunners on the left. They look like professionals. Another "Gentlemen squad"?..

 

[eran0004]

I'm 99.999% sure that the plan of invasion to Ukraine is already developed and approved by the Genshtab, and ready to enforce in any time.

Of course it's developed. It's too late to start making plans and moving troops after the war has already begun.

Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win. / Sun Tzu

Doesn't mean that all plans will be used, it's just nice to have options available.

 

[Rage Racer]

"Operation Polite People".
The video record of the Unit 0900 actions in Crimea from February, 22nd to March, 28th, 2014.

The vid shows the Spetsnaz operators gaining the military control of Crimea. Quickly, clean, and gently.
Also, nice music.

 

[Akira AC]

I can almost picture Ukraine split to the Dnieper river, based on the political situation and how the country seems fractured politically, it would be no surprise if the eastern areas become Russia at some point, I mean:

If you consider the areas that effectively supported a pro Russian government, is easy to see the areas in which separatist might get control and even detach from Ukraine, and which areas are indeed pushing for a separation.

I can see western media becoming completely paranoid when these areas eventually detach and annex to Russia, while it wont be a surprise to anybody else.