Russian Invasion of Ukraine

  • Thread starter Rage Racer
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Oil watchers have been reporting for months Russian oil exports to the EU have stalled. Neither pipeline was operational at the time of the supected sabotage. One of the pipelines was shut down due to "maintenence" since August.

Seems like the sort of thing that will eventually be used as an excuse for war. Or in this case, the timing suggests, for domestic propaganda to help with the draft.
 
ClydeYellow
Same reason they would fund neo-Fascist groups that would go on to blow up a train station - at the end of the day, you can't really trust any country that claims to be a "superpower" not to stab its "allies" in the back when it aligns with their goals. And we have Biden on record saying "Nordstream 2 won't happen, no matter what the Germans have to say about it".

But with that being said, Russia has a lot more reasons to conduct such an act of sabotage - it would give them a good reason to raise prices should Europe decide to abandon sanctions and buy gas from the remaining pipelines, and more importantly, it shows that the new Baltic Pipe is equally vulnerable, while letting the deranged psychopaths Moscow gauge the European response. They certainly have the means to carry out such an attack - likely with Navy or FSB frogmen operating out of Kaliningrad.

As for Ukraine... Even if their navy divers were capable of sabotaging a pipeline, how would they get there? Perhaps with the help of Poland, which would obviously stand to benefit from the abandonment of the NS pipelines (the Baltic Pipe touches ground in Poland). But this is the kind of **** that only seems plausible to the tinfoil-hat-wearing portion of the population...
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What would a pipeline sabotage materially do? I think that's the first question. On the surface it would make it at least less likely that there will be gas deliveries to Europe this winter. But would it really? I imagine it could be repaired within a few weeks. So was it done to make it seem like gas supplies are more volatile? Perhaps it was done to keep Europe from thinking this can all be over soon and everything can go back to normal? Maybe Ukraine perceives Europe is getting cold feet? That would seem to provide a motive for Ukraine. Maybe Ukraine is afraid that this conflict might end, militarily, sooner rather than later, but they want Europe/NATO to keep the sanctions noose tight.

I struggle to see why Russia would do this - it's a pretty oblique way to intimidate Europe. Would they deny it? Probably but then how does that get the point across. Would they claim responsibility - that would be ridiculous.

Iran has somewhat of a motive in that it would benefit greatly if Russia is unable to provide Europe with gas, (Iran has nearly 20% of the world's natural gas) and the timing could make sense if they are anticipating sanctions to be lifted with the JPOA revival. That's a pretty far flung location for the Iranian military though, I don't if know they could pull it off, and the risk of attacking one of their only allies seems pretty dumb. But the Iranian regime is pretty dumb, so who knows.

The US could do it, and could potentially benefit - but it would be at the direct expense of the people of Europe. I don't think Biden is that cynical.

Lastly it could be some non-state actor, but I would guess this is extremely unlikely.
 
TheCracker
The Nord Stream pipelines 1 & 2 have been 'attacked'

But who was it? - What does Russia have to gain by heavily damaging its own pipeline to Europe, one that they had already shut down due to sanctions. What do European countries have to gain by making sure the already cut off supply of Russian gas won't be available if we have a particularly cold winter and that gas is needed?

The US is all i can think of. That way Germany and co can't cave in and losen sanctions on Russia if they get backed into a corner and need that gas.
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Our former head of Polish diplomacy is absolute moron posting **** like this:



I can see that Russia will quickly use this for their propaganda.
 
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I can understand that the people of Donetsk and Luhansk want to be independant from Ukraine.

Everybody has to respect this decision. Looks like Ukraine treated them bad in the past.

The bombing of both North-Stream pipelines from the USA are a terroristic attack against Europe and Germany.

Germany is clearly one of the losers of this war.
 
FerrariF40
I can understand that the people of Donetsk and Luhansk want to be independant from Ukraine.

Everybody has to respect this decision. Looks like Ukraine treated them bad in the past.

The bombing of both North-Stream pipelines from the USA are a terroristic attack against Europe and Germany.

Germany is clearly one of the losers of this war.
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Yes definitely the USA....

 
Current population of Donetsk and Lugansk definitely want to be part of Russia. Because, it would drastically increase their quality of life in all regards. I am not sure about 98+% results, but ~70% is plausible. Almost all proUkraine population of this regions is dead, in exile or staying as low as possible.

Results for Kherson and Zaporozhye would be around 10-20%.
 
The problem is that Russia's word is meaningless. It's a gigantic if but let's go to fantasy land and let's say IF Russia said "Give us Luhansk and Donetsk and we'll leave it there, be satisfied with the border and not annex more territory", nobody would believe it. And why would you?

Putin's Russia won't be satisfied until all of Ukraine is exterminated and under Russian control. Any idea of concession based on a legitimate want of eastern Ukrainian territory to join the Russian Federation is at a complete impasse with Russia's unwilling to honour any agreement.
 
Tornado
Good for you. If you'd be so kind, examine any of the literal hundreds of posts by OP of this thread and compare a typical one to the two nonsense posts FerrariF40 has posted.



Then maybe you can explain for the crowd what the difference is supposed to be that's so obvious to you.
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Ok ok. I don't want any tensions. I have just thought this was irony.

To be clear I am 100% against russia here if you think we are in some kind of cooperation or something.
 
a3ZYDXe_460s.jpg


Haven't heard anything from the moustached marauder for a while now, you guys think he feel the **** storm coming his way too?
 
FerrariF40
I can understand that the people of Donetsk and Luhansk want to be independant from Ukraine.

Everybody has to respect this decision. Looks like Ukraine treated them bad in the past.

The bombing of both North-Stream pipelines from the USA are a terroristic attack against Europe and Germany.

Germany is clearly one of the losers of this war.
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Funny how you would completely ignore the other regions with 0 separatism history also going through fake referendums with armed thugs overlooking each individual voter.

Also funny how independence to Donetsk and Luhansk for all this time has just been a codeword for being annexed.
 
FerrariF40
I can understand that the people of Donetsk and Luhansk want to be independant from Ukraine.

Everybody has to respect this decision. Looks like Ukraine treated them bad in the past.
Click to expand...
I’m sure some of them want to be independent from Ukraine, but that doesn’t justify starting a war to try to enforce it. The so called “referendum” that allegedly took place in the past days was not about independence from Ukraine, but about annexation by Russia, and you’d have to bend over pretty hard to try to interpret those results as any kind of indicator of what the people actually want.
FerrariF40
The bombing of both North-Stream pipelines from the USA are a terroristic attack against Europe and Germany.
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I haven’t heard of any such bombing from the USA, where did you get that information from?
FerrariF40
Germany is clearly one of the losers of this war.
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Everyone is a loser in this war.
 
The Referendum was just an excuse to make it so Ukraine is attacking "Russian land", which will allow Vladdy to justify escalating a war and sending the next bunch of fighters and mobilised units in to remove the renegade Ukrainians attacking Mother Russia.
 

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