Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[JMoney]

What if the mystery soldiers turn out to be North Koreans? But in all seriousness, what would be the point of Russia keeping the identity of it's troops a secret? Everybody knows it's them.

It's interesting that Top Gear was just in Ukraine, probably a few months before the chaos began.

 

[Rage Racer]

@Rage Racer ; the same radio Professor said that securing the airports was a logical step for troop movements. That was just after the airport was secured by armed men who identified themselves to a BBC reporter on the scene as "normal Crimeans. We are teachers, we are from offices, we are a brigade to protect our town from damage. We are just people".

They were very well armed though, and that's what counted.

teachers and office workers armed like this... If it's true, this is the coolest "self-defence" ("samooborona" in Russian and Ukrainian) militia ever.

A journalist said, "...They obviously didn't get the guns just yesterday, they are used to holding them like a hipster used to holding his iPhone".

More photos of the "polite gentlemen" in Crimea:

Another truck, a Ural 4320, not a Kamaz seen before:

Near the airport

"Excuse me, sir, may I have a smoke?"

And some "gentlemen" helicopters (Mi-8 and Mi-35M) in the sky of Sevastopol.

Nice music added, looks like an opening movie of some Call of Duty.

 

[SMfan]

Damn, and I wanted to be the smart-ass and give everyone on GTP proof of the (unofficial) invasion. Welp, apparently I'm a terribly slow individual.

On a side note, GTPlanet is a better source of news from Ukraine than 99% of Russian media.

 

[Rage Racer]

Damn, and I wanted to be the smart-ass and give everyone on GTP proof of the (unofficial) invasion. Welp, apparently I'm a terribly slow individual.

On a side note, GTPlanet is a better source of news from Ukraine than 99% of Russian media.

Hey, good to see you here Alex.
Yeah, our Goebbels TV isn't really trustable. I have a friend in Kiev, he watches Russian channels and says "WTF? And people in Russia believe this? What a :censored:ing lie!".

 

[Sanji Himura]

And the sad thing about it is that we all knew that this was coming, and the only person who was trumpeting the horn was called an idiot for it.

 

[Dotini]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26400035#

The latest from the BBC.

It appears likely that Russia will, without much opposition, invade and control eastern and southern portions of Ukraine, Crimea at a minimum, and there's nothing anyone can do about it.

On another forum, I read:

"Russia's Council of Federation also recommended that President Putin recall the ambassador to the US as a reaction to President Obama's "there will be costs" statement."

I sincerely hope this does not happen, as it would mark a very serious new phase of escalation.

 

[Liquid]

Why wouldn't a split of the country be amicably arranged? East Ukraine can stay as it is but West Ukraine, if it really loves Moscow that much, can allow itself to be annexed by Russia.

 

[Dotini]

Why wouldn't a split of the country be amicably arranged? East Ukraine can stay as it is but West Ukraine, if it really loves Moscow that much, can allow itself to be annexed by Russia.

Very logical.? But West Ukraine would lose its whole coastline on the Black Sea!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novorossiya

 

[Liquid]

Also I goofed with east/west. Of course, east Ukraine loves Moscow and west Ukraine is more European aligned.

Apologies.

 

[SMfan]

Why wouldn't a split of the country be amicably arranged? East Ukraine can stay as it is but West Ukraine, if it really loves Moscow that much, can allow itself to be annexed by Russia.

Also I goofed with east/west. Of course, east Ukraine loves Moscow and west Ukraine is more European aligned.

Apologies.

Welp, neither part is a hundred per cent commited to one "ideology" (not sure what else to call their preferences). Plus, patriotism (as much as I'm not a fan of that word) includes the belief that your country should remain undivided, so any person claiming to be a patriot automatically rejects any idea of the country splitting.

 

[Liquid]

Plus, patriotism (as much as I'm not a fan of that word) includes the belief that your country should remain undivided, so any person claiming to be a patriot automatically rejects any idea of the country splitting.

Try saying that across Ireland. You'd be surprised at the different responses you would receive.

 

[SMfan]

Try saying that across Ireland. You'd be surprised at the different responses you would receive.

I may have been unclear there. Patriotism is interpreted very differently by people: some use it in regards to the whole country, some to just their city or region. That's just one aspect.

Could you explain what exactly you meant by the Ireland example?

 

[Rage Racer]

Now let me make this more clear what are these "gentlemen" doing here.
The RF troops (most of those who we have seen are probably Spetsnaz) entered Crimea for controlling the situation and securing some objects.
Objects secured for now are: Belbek airfield, Navy headquarters in Sevastopol, border troops HQ, AA center in Kerch, border checkpoint on ferry docks and some more minor objects.

The troops secured them quickly... and gently.
The only target of this mission was to prevent any tough guys from messing around with guns, whatever if on their own will or someone else's order. This security is needed to stabilize the situation and provide conditions for the referendum.

The first operators to act here were the officers of the disbanded Ukrainian Berkut force.

Also, more Russian "tourists" arrived on GAZ Tigr armored cars, now with plates. The 21 digits tell they're from the North Caucasus Military District. The Ground Forces, not Marines.

And this Kamaz belongs to the Black Sea Fleet (plate code 90), so the soldiers are the Marines (aka Naval Infantry).

Aww, real gentlemen.

An old AKMS on the right?.. Hmm...

 

[SMfan]

Because nothing makes a referendum legitimate quite like foreign armed people.
Btw, I love how Russian politicians act as if all the people in Crimea are Russians and/or supporters of their current pro-Russian gov-ment of the autonomy. Because, you know, on the last election the party of their prime minister (who himself obtained power not through any election, but a takeover) got 4% of the votes. Doesn't that just scream "region-wide popularity"?

EDIT: The first Ukrainian president Kravchuk has just mentioned that a Crimea-only referendum would not legally work. The Ukrainian constitution states that in a separation situation only a country-wide referendum can be used as a means of deciding whether a region may become independent.

 

[DK]

I may have been unclear there. Patriotism is interpreted very differently by people: some use it in regards to the whole country, some to just their city or region. That's just one aspect.

Could you explain what exactly you meant by the Ireland example?

Liquid is probably referring to Irish nationalists vs unionists. An Irish nationalist's idea of patriotism is reunifying the island of Ireland as a republic, while a unionist's idea of patriotism is remaining loyal to the United Kingdom.

 

[Lizard]

Ahh the Crimea.
What is going to happen at the end of this? Even my lecturers don't know and they are doctors in Politics and International Relations between them (Some specialise in IR and some in Politics and of course each specialise in a certain area within that topic.)
What should happen? Depends on which school of IR you follow. Realists believe that every state is untrustworthy and selfish and as such the west should be very careful in what they do as letting Russia have the Crimea even if it is to bring peace can have bad consequences. Everything revolves around the balance of power as far as a realist is concerned.
If you follow more liberal schools they would likely say (as did one of my lecturers) maybe the west should let Russia have the Crimea in the name of peace.

 

[TenEightyOne]

teachers and office workers armed like this... If it's true, this is the coolest "self-defence" ("samooborona" in Russian and Ukrainian) militia ever.

I don't know, and I wouldn't be able to identify the accent, that's just what he said. I have no idea how well or poorly equipped territorial barracks are there. Certainly in the case of UK division a people's army would have access to modern vehicles and equipment if they chose to split from Westminster and would look as well armed.

The idea that civilian forces are just blokes with their anoraks zipped RIGHT up can be a bit misleading sometimes.

You're much closer and you know... and I know you'll be right I was just repeating what I'd heard on the BBC, but their coverage really hasn't been good at ALL, it's been very biased and selective.

EDIT: We know the Russian army are on the ground now, and Ukraine has just put its forces on alert.

Head of NATO tweeted "Urgent need for de-escalation in Crimea".

Hopefully everyone has phone chargers in their tanks and are checking their updates :\

 

[Mike Rotch]

What a mess, I can't believe Putin is going to annex the Ukraine as he did with Ossetia. The only way the confront him is another war, and that will just escalate into an even bigger mess.

Obama and NATO really have easy answer; do nothing and Putin feels he can do this where ever he wants to in the future with no cost, or assist in the defence of the Ukraine (i.e. war).

Politicians. What a rotten bunch.

 

[Dennisch]

I wonder if Kiev has the balls to take on Russia.

 

[Mike Rotch]

I wonder if Kiev has the balls to take on Russia.

If they have EU backing yes, otherwise, no.

 

[TenEightyOne]

What a mess, I can't believe Putin is going to annex the Ukraine as he did with Ossetia. The only way the confront him is another war, and that will just escalate into an even bigger mess.

Obama and NATO really have easy answer; do nothing and Putin feels he can do this where ever he wants to in the future with no cost, or assist in the defence of the Ukraine (i.e. war).

Politicians. What a rotten bunch.

I'm genuinely quite nervous about this, this has the potential for flashpoint escalation in all kinds of areas.

If the situation escalates then the UK and US have mandated themselves to protect the impartiality of Ukraine, the onus is on them to act if requested to (providing their Attorney Generals validate the legality of the current Ukrainian government-in-parliament in reference to the Budapest agreement).

I don't know how Russia's UN veto works if they are a party to a debated complaint?

Hopefully diplomacy will out and soon we'll see every adult Ukrainian of every heritage at polling booths deciding the future of their country.

 

[Mike Rotch]

I don't know how Russia's UN veto works if they are a party to a debated complaint?

I'm not sure, but China will do what they do best on the UNSC; veto anything and everything, just like with the Syria situation.

 

[TenEightyOne]

I'm not sure, but China will do what they do best on the UNSC; veto anything and everything, just like with the Syria situation.

Good spot, the Syria actions were vetoed so any UN proposition in respect of Russia would presumably be vetoed by China making Russia's position academic.

Not sure what the position is if China decide not to exercise their veto. You'd traditionally think they'd support Russia but I wonder if, given the recent warming in their relationships with Western and US markets, China might actually sit back and let events take their course for now.

EDIT: BBC reporting that Obama and Putin had 90 minute phone call in which Obama "accused Russia of violating their international duties". Putin apparently said (not necessarily in response) that "Russia had a duty to protect its interests". Firm talk from both sides so far, Obama clearly stepping up to the situation rather than leaving it just in the European arena.

 

[Sanji Himura]

However, if the Budapest agreement that the US and the UK signed with Ukraine is actually a legal treaty, you can forget the Security Council. The US and the UK would go to war with the RF because that agreement carries the force of international law.

 

[Dotini]

However, if the Budapest agreement that the US and the UK signed with Ukraine is actually a legal treaty, you can forget the Security Council. The US and the UK would go to war with the RF because that agreement carries the force of international law.

No. Going to war is never automatic. There is always a choice.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

I think I have a solution to the crisis!

We send Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott over broker a peace deal. I just saw part of an interview with him, where he managed to show a complete and utter lack of understanding about the situation, but he is *always* right. So he's probably the least-qualified person to sort things out, which is the beauty of it - after about fifteen minutes with him, the Russians and the Ukrainians will forget what the problem in Crimea is, and turn against him.

There have been plenty of wars throughout history that started because one person was being a prat. But this could be the first war that was prevented by one person being a prat.

 

[TenEightyOne]

And if it all kicks off, Tony Abbott's there in the middle. Win-win.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Didn't think of that. Can we send Pyne and Morrison over there while we're at it?

 

[TenEightyOne]

Just found the interview, he should definitely be put onto a plane immediately. My advice is for him and his entourage to loudly sing Ukrainian anthems over the radio as they make a surprise approach to Simferopol.

And yes, definitely. Maybe Piers Morgan too? He could meet them out there, would be the best TV he ever made.

 

[Dotini]

I think I have a solution to the crisis!

We send Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott over broker a peace deal. I just saw part of an interview with him, where he managed to show a complete and utter lack of understanding about the situation, but he is *always* right. So he's probably the least-qualified person to sort things out, which is the beauty of it - after about fifteen minutes with him, the Russians and the Ukrainians will forget what the problem in Crimea is, and turn against him.

There have been plenty of wars throughout history that started because one person was being a prat. But this could be the first war that was prevented by one person being a prat.

My suggestion would be trial by single combat, like in Game of Thrones. Putin vs Obama. Or maybe a trial by seven champions from each side.