Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[prisonermonkeys]

Just found the interview, he should definitely be put onto a plane immediately. My advice is for him and his entourage to loudly sing Ukrainian anthems over the radio as they make a surprise approach to Simferopol.

I was think more along the lines of "Boom, Boom, Boom", like Javier Bardem approaching the manor house in SKYFALL.

And yes, definitely. Maybe Piers Morgan too? He could meet them out there, would be the best TV he ever made.

And Andrew Bolt.

 

[ITCC_Andrew]

Ukrainian crisis. Not Australian political crisis. Not "I hate Piers Morgan and it's somehow a crisis."


I'll get you all back on-topic. It should be pointed out that, for example, if a Crimean politician can show overwhelming support in Crimea, it could be possible that the politician could take control of the entire country, legally, reform the constitution, and then allow Crimea to form its own [STRIKEOUT]independent[/Strikeout] Russian puppet nation...


A similar thing is playing out in Québec, in Canada, but they're given enough sovereignty that a majority of the Québecois are happy enough as-is. It really did make for an interesting hour, though, when the referendum about a Sovereign Québec came down to a single percent. Twice. Given that I speak French, and enjoy rally, I plan on going to Québec. I don't want to need a passport to visit Québec though - and that same sentiment can apply here. I highly doubt any Crimeans want to need a passport to go to Kiev, and vice-versa. I also doubt that anyone wants a Berlin-wall type ordeal. Considering last time, when the Berlin wall single-handedly sucked U.S.S.R.'s finances into American-style debt...



So, TL;DR...: It's unlikely that the nation itself will split, unless there are good relations maintained between the two sides. No one should need a passport to go between the regions of the country, nor should travel and trade be restricted, à la Cold War.

 

[playnthru]

What the hell does this have to do speaking French, liking Rallying or Canada? What thread did I wander into.

 

[ITCC_Andrew]

What the hell does this have to do speaking French, liking Rallying or Canada? What thread did I wander into.

The passport. Read the post.

 

[Azuremen]

The passport. Read the post.

Which has what to do with the current situation?

 

[ITCC_Andrew]

No one wants to need a passport to visit their own country. It's something I almost experienced with Québec. I'm glad that Québec is still part of Canada so I can visit it without a passport.


Somewhere, in Ukraine, someone is in the same situation as I would be... Wanting to travel from Kiev to Crimea, for example.

 

[SMfan]

Good spot, the Syria actions were vetoed so any UN proposition in respect of Russia would presumably be vetoed by China making Russia's position academic.

Not sure what the position is if China decide not to exercise their veto. You'd traditionally think they'd support Russia but I wonder if, given the recent warming in their relationships with Western and US markets, China might actually sit back and let events take their course for now.

It's not just the relationship with the West. China is unlikely to support any sort of separation of a part of a country because of their own problems with Tibet.

The passport. Read the post.

Having to use a passport seems like a mild inconvenience compared to being completely consumed by Russia. Also, I think if a separation is to happen, they wouldn't wanna build a (figuratively speaking) wall between Crimea and the rest of Ukraine, so I don't think that travelling would become much harder.

 

[Rage Racer]

What a mess, I can't believe Putin is going to annex the Ukraine as he did with Ossetia.

1. Who told you that?
2. Was South Ossetia annexed to the RF? Really?

However, if the Budapest agreement that the US and the UK signed with Ukraine is actually a legal treaty, you can forget the Security Council. The US and the UK would go to war with the RF because that agreement carries the force of international law.

Starting the WW3 because of a threat to the Ukrainian revolution (which is not pro-European anyway) is not an efficient desicion. Europe and US have a lot easier way to manipulate Russia. Guess what.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Ukrainian crisis. Not Australian political crisis.

You clearly don't know anything about the current state of Australian politics, then. All I am doing is trying to find a solution to both problems at once.

 

[SMfan]

What a mess, I can't believe Putin is going to annex the Ukraine as he did with Ossetia.

The RF is not gonna annex the whole Ukraine, but yeah, some of its parts may factually join Russia. At least that's the plan.

2. Was South Ossetia annexed to the RF? Really?

Well, it basically was. Not completely, but it's now financed by Russia and "guarded" by Russian military forces.

Starting the WW3 because of a threat to the Ukrainian revolution (which is not pro-European anyway) is not an efficient desicion.

Why is it not pro-European? The name kinda speaks for itself.
However, I do agree, that there won't be any direct confrontation between Russian and NATO forces.

Europe and US have a lot easier way to manipulate Russia.

"Manipulate" is a very strong word. "Affect" or "leverage" seem more realistic.

 

[Rage Racer]

Well, it basically was. Not completely, but it's now financed by Russia and "guarded" by Russian military forces.

So it's not annexed but taken into strong influence.

Why is it not pro-European? The name kinda speaks for itself.

It's no more Euromaidan. The Right Sector doesn't intend to associate neither with EU nor the Customs Union.

"Manipulate" is a very strong word. "Affect" or "leverage" seem more realistic.

Yes, leverage. I mean, there are a lot more simple levers to affect RF.

Meanwhile: Ukrainian artillery movement in Zaporizhia

 

[SMfan]

So it's not annexed but taken into strong influence.

Ehhh, if you go 100% by the book, then it's not. I'm saying that it's factually controlled by Russia.

It's no more Euromaidan. The Right Sector doesn't intend to associate neither with EU nor the Customs Union.

Well, yeah, but the Right Sector ain't the whole thing. Plus, even if you say the people aren't strictly pro-Europe, they're not against the EU either.

Yes, leverage. I mean, there are a lot more simple levers to affect RF.

Right now I only see one - economic sanctions.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Having to use a passport seems like a mild inconvenience compared to being completely consumed by Russia. Also, I think if a separation is to happen, they wouldn't wanna build a (figuratively speaking) wall between Crimea and the rest of Ukraine, so I don't think that travelling would become much harder.

Quite right, I see what ITCC_Andrew was saying but I'm less concerned about the potential for increased post-apocalyptic bureaucracy than the apocalypse itself.

 

[ITCC_Andrew]

Quite right, I see what ITCC_Andrew was saying but I'm less concerned about the potential for increased post-apocalyptic bureaucracy than the apocalypse itself.

When you say it like that... In the Canadian side of things, I saw the passport as a major hassle, and was seriously glad the country stayed together. But, when compared - rightly - with the other, more drastic changes, it's like stubbing a toe versus being shot.

 

[BobK]

So @MrMel steps into a thread on the Ukraine crisis, and has to start talking about Canada. Surprise, surprise.

 

[ITCC_Andrew]

So @MrMel steps into a thread on the Ukraine crisis, and has to start talking about Canada. Surprise, surprise.

It is very much relevant and very much interesting:


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_sovereignty_movement

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_referendum

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/...s_revives_talk_of_sovereignty_referendum.html

http://www.vice.com/en_ca/read/chatting-with-quebecs-young-separatists



You wanted to talk about peaceful attempts at forming a sovereign country? Check. You wanted to talk about legally attempting to form a sovereign country? Check.



It's extremely relevant, because it's a model of how a country should organize a sovereignty referendum. The people have spoken, and have continued for the past 34 years.

 

[TenEightyOne]

It's extremely relevant, because it's a model of how a country should organize a sovereignty referendum. The people have spoken, and have continued for the past 34 years.

Ukraine doesn't have a sovereign in that sense, and nor is it any stranger to democracy. That's why some of the people say different things from their neighbours.

Since the parliament voted the President from power the whole world (Ukraine included) has known that they need to hold proper elections quickly to ratify their government. That's old news.

The worry at the moment is the physical military interventions that seem to have taken place so far and their potential for escalation. We could thump on about any French backwater's sovereignty debate and it would be a day-late and a Delors short. You can have that joke, if you like. And it was a joke - Canada is in very complex political position but only in a diplomatic sense, there are currently no hostiles ready to storm them.

 

[zzz_pt]

USA and Britain have to help Ukraine. In 1994 Ukrain agreed to destroy all their nuclear arsenal (the 3rd larger in the world, larger that the nuclear arsenal from france, britain and china together) in exchange of protection from... USA, Britain and.... Russia.

Russians -.-'

 

[Joel]

It really did make for an interesting hour, though, when the referendum about a Sovereign Québec came down to a single percent. Twice.

Weren't you born in '92 or '93? Because the referendum was in '95 and somehow I doubt you understood the gravity of the situation at age 2 or 3.

And the other referendum in 1980 was a 60-40 split. This all ignores that the situation in the Ukraine isn't comparable, what with massive protests and foreign troops in the country. If the US invaded while Quebec was having a referendum and during weeks of protests and bloodshed you might be a bit closer to the point.

 

[Dennisch]

So @MrMel steps into a thread on the Ukraine crisis, and has to start talking about Canada. Surprise, surprise.

Because the situations in both countries are so strikingly similar. Have you not seen the images of French Canadians getting up in arms against the English Canadians. And those horrible riots on the freedom square? all those deaths?

 

[TenEightyOne]

Weren't you born in '92 or '93? Because the referendum was in '95 and somehow I doubt you understood the gravity of the situation at age 2 or 3.

And the other referendum in 1980 was a 60-40 split. This all ignores that the situation in the Ukraine isn't comparable, what with massive protests and foreign troops in the country. If the US invaded while Quebec was having a referendum and during weeks of protests and bloodshed you might be a bit closer to the point.

92, I seem to remember him implying in another thread. It would be great to see people talking about Canada in a Canada thread, it really doesn't fit into the discussion about armed invasion of treatised nations or the potential for getting Piers Morgan involved on the ground.

 

[zzz_pt]

http://www.praguepost.com/eu-news/37525-zeman-other-pols-oppose-russian-intervention​

 

[TenEightyOne]

http://www.praguepost.com/eu-news/37525-zeman-other-pols-oppose-russian-intervention​

Nothing surprising in the article, but what's the picture for? You can't be confusing the doctrines of Putin and Hitler?

You posted a link to a Hungarian article with a picture of a Russian altered to look like an Austrian of Austro-Hungarian heritage... I don't get it?

 

[zzz_pt]

The picture is in context. Did you read it?

Hitler invaded other countries with the pretext of protecting german people in those countires... That is the context and the motive of the picture I guess. Nothing more than that.

 

[Dotini]

Posting a big picture Putin photo shopped in Hitler is a bit over the top, considering not a shot has been fired.

 

[SMfan]

USA and Britain have to help Ukraine. In 1994 Ukrain agreed to destroy all their nuclear arsenal (the 3rd larger in the world, larger that the nuclear arsenal from france, britain and china together) in exchange of protection from... USA, Britain and.... Russia.

Russians -.-'

Uhm, yeah...
This is called "generalizing".
Not that I think that all the blame should be on Putin personally, or that Russian people are all innocent or whatever. But still, man, I'm a Russian dude myself and, you know, I don't support any of that ****. And I'm not the only one.

 

[zzz_pt]

Uhm, yeah...
This is called "generalizing".
Not that I think that all the blame should be on Putin personally, or that Russian people are all innocent or whatever. But still, man, I'm a Russian dude myself and, you know, I don't support any of that ****. And I'm not the only one.

I know that Ilya. And you are right of course.

I was reffering to russians politicians. They sign one thing and are doing the oposite of what they sign. :S

 

[TenEightyOne]

The picture is in context. Did you read it?

Hitler invaded other countries with the pretext of protecting german people in those countires... That is the context and the motive of the picture I guess. Nothing more than that.

Seems a bit silly, you could have posted Bush, Thatcher, Reagan... the article didn't say anything that any other media outlet isn't already saying and you posted an Austro-Hungarian alongside a Hungarian article, I just wondered if there was some very clever point I was missing

Hitler isn't comparable to Putin in any way, and he didn't invade any territories on the pretext of protecting German nationals, more to provide Lebensraum. Not a great connection to the topic, really.

 

[SMfan]

Posting a big picture Putin photo shopped in Hitler is a bit over the top, considering not a shot has been fired.

Well, the method is pretty much the same as what Hitler did with Austria. Obviously, the scale is smaller, but the scheme is the same so far. Now, just posting a pic isn't necessarily equal to showcasing a balanced opinion, but the similarities are there. Granted, all authoritarian and dictatorship-type regimes have many things in common, but Hitler is just a very vivid analogy

I know that Ilya. And you are right of course.

I was reffering to russians politicians. They sign one thing and are doing the oposite of what they sign. :S

Ehh, these dudes we got now aren't even actual politicians, they're just playing roles.
Oh, and my name is Alex.

 

[Dotini]

Well, the method is pretty much the same as what Hitler did with Austria. Obviously, the scale is smaller, but the scheme is the same so far. Now, just posting a pic isn't necessarily equal to showcasing a balanced opinion, but the similarities are there. Granted, all authoritarian and dictatorship-type regimes have many things in common, but Hitler is just a very vivid analogy

Ehh, these dudes we got now aren't even actual politicians, they're just playing roles.
Oh, and my name is Alex.

With the exception of Gorbachev, Putin is the least authoritarian Russian leader in 300 years. He provides bases so that the US can provide logistics to Afghanistan. He is a rational actor.

In a tense situation, it is wrong to lose objectivity and self-control, and start demonizing people as if in a rush to war. Stay cool, brother Alex.