Tesla Master Plan: Part Deux

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The real question is how long will it take to fully recharge the batteries from a full range trip, which we won't know for actual until these get out into real world service for a while. I imagine Pepsi will be using them on routes where downtime won't be a concern, but that downtime will be a concern for smaller companies that can't afford to have lots of spare trucks sitting idle for long periods.
The new liquid-cooled megachargers which they plan on installing specifically for the Semi will apparently be capable of recharging up to 400 miles in 30 minutes. They just need to install them on every major route in order to make full-range trips viable. Will be interesting to see how many they've installed in a year or two.

 
I actually wonder about the body panel performance of the production truck. Cars don't have flat panels because they have essentially zero resistance to bending (section modulus). You can mitigate that by using a thicker section but the efficiency (both in terms of weight and cost) goes waaaay down. That's really bad for a vehicle. I have a feeling the Cybertruck, if it ever actually makes it to production, is going to be extraordinarily heavy, even by EV standards. I also think the faceted body will be difficult to build and cost a lot of money* if it really is stainless steel - it's basically 11-gauge steel which is incredibly thick and heavy (most car bodies are either 18 or 20 gauge).

*Stainless 11 gauge is currently around $60/sf (and that's not even brushed-finish) whereas mild 18 gauge is more like $15/sf.
 
I actually wonder about the body panel performance of the production truck. Cars don't have flat panels because they have essentially zero resistance to bending (section modulus). You can mitigate that by using a thicker section but the efficiency (both in terms of weight and cost) goes waaaay down. That's really bad for a vehicle. I have a feeling the Cybertruck, if it ever actually makes it to production, is going to be extraordinarily heavy, even by EV standards. I also think the faceted body will be difficult to build and cost a lot of money* if it really is stainless steel - it's basically 11-gauge steel which is incredibly thick and heavy (most car bodies are either 18 or 20 gauge).

*Stainless 11 gauge is currently around $60/sf (and that's not even brushed-finish) whereas mild 18 gauge is more like $15/sf.
I would have to presume that if they really are going that route, there's going to be a fiberglass underbody providing reinforcement to keep the weight down, like was done with the DeLorean DMC-12. A carbon fiber underbody might be a viable option too, but I doubt it'd be used if they're really sticking to a price point that's competitive with existing fullsize trucks.
 
I would have to presume that if they really are going that route, there's going to be a fiberglass underbody providing reinforcement to keep the weight down, like was done with the DeLorean DMC-12. A carbon fiber underbody might be a viable option too, but I doubt it'd be used if they're really sticking to a price point that's competitive with existing fullsize trucks.
I've read that the intent is for the body to be made of un-reinforced 11 gauge stainless and the whole reason for the "giga press" is that ordinary stamping presses can't stamp such thick steel. Of course the way you are describing makes a hell of a lot more sense. I'd guess that the actual unibody will be coated 18-20 gauge mild steel. Aside from the hood, the Delorean actually had a reasonable amount of cross-sectional development in the body panels too. The cybertruck is the only production vehicle I can think of with legitimately flat surfaces everywhere.
 
I've read that the intent is for the body to be made of un-reinforced 11 gauge stainless and the whole reason for the "giga press" is that ordinary stamping presses can't stamp such thick steel.
The 9000-ton IDRA press, as far as I’m aware, is intended to be used for the front and rear internal castings for Cybertruck. The volume for each Cybertruck casting will be greater than the mega castings currently used on Model 3’s and Y’s, which is why Tesla needed a much bigger machine. The external bodywork will supposedly not be pressed at all, just folded.
 
The 9000-ton IDRA press, as far as I’m aware, is intended to be used for the front and rear internal castings for Cybertruck. The volume for each Cybertruck casting will be greater than the mega castings currently used on Model 3’s and Y’s, which is why Tesla needed a much bigger machine. The external bodywork will supposedly not be pressed at all, just folded.
I guess I'm not paying attention very well.
 
I guess I'm not paying attention very well.
They will still need press machines for the bodywork as you mentioned (door frames, crumple zones etc), but I have no idea how this will tie-in to the Cybertrucks 'exoskeleton chassis' ethos. Will be interesting to see what they've decided on.
 

Tesla is under criminal investigation for misleading consumers, investors, and regulators

Tesla Inc is under criminal investigation in the United States over claims that the company's electric vehicles can drive themselves, three people familiar with the matter said.

The U.S. Department of Justice launched the previously undisclosed probe last year following more than a dozen crashes, some of them fatal, involving Tesla’s driver assistance system Autopilot, which was activated during the accidents, the people said.

Federal and California safety regulators are already scrutinizing whether claims about Autopilot's capabilities and the system's design imbue customers with a false sense of security, inducing them to treat Teslas as truly driverless cars and become complacent behind the wheel with potentially deadly consequences.

The Justice Department investigation potentially represents a more serious level of scrutiny because of the possibility of criminal charges against the company or individual executives, the people familiar with the inquiry said.

As part of the latest probe, Justice Department prosecutors in Washington and San Francisco are examining whether Tesla misled consumers, investors and regulators by making unsupported claims about its driver assistance technology's capabilities, the sources said.

Officials conducting their inquiry could ultimately pursue criminal charges, seek civil sanctions or close the probe without taking any action, they said.

The Justice Department’s Autopilot probe is far from recommending any action partly because it is competing with two other DOJ investigations involving Tesla, one of the sources said. Investigators still have much work to do and no decision on charges is imminent, this source said.

The Justice Department may also face challenges in building its case, said the sources, because of Tesla’s warnings about overreliance on Autopilot.

Barbara McQuade, a former U.S. attorney in Detroit who prosecuted automotive companies and employees in fraud cases and is not involved in the current probe, said investigators likely would need to uncover evidence such as emails or other internal communications showing that Tesla and Musk made misleading statements about Autopilot’s capabilities on purpose.
 
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The Cyberquad kids' ATV has been recalled for safety reasons, which brings up the important point:

...wait, there was a Cyberquad?
A toy designed for kids was recalled after a 36-year-old bruised herself on it? :lol: It’s no wonder everything comes with a warning label these days.

Yup, the full scale Cyberquad ATV was revealed at the Cybertruck announcement event.

Speaking of the Cybertruck, it’s beginning to look much more pre-production than the original concept. I do fancy buying one if (or when) they come to Australia. Seems like the perfect tool for all of the country road driving I'll be doing.

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Tesla opens their proprietary charging standard to others, calling it the "North American Charging Standard"

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Similarly, we look forward to future electric vehicles incorporating the NACS design and charging at Tesla’s North American Supercharging and Destination Charging networks.

As a purely electrical and mechanical interface agnostic to use case and communication protocol, NACS is straightforward to adopt.

Too bad all other EVs on the market already use the SAE J1772 / CCS standard connector. Even Tesla uses the CCS Type 2 connector in Europe

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But the article mentions that in the US the vast majority of chargers and vehicles use Tesla's plugs...because all the infrastructure and cars are Tesla. It's undeniable that Tesla is far more advanced than anybody else when it comes to charging infrastructure.

As far as I can tell, the only reason CCS is used in Europe is because European governments forced it to be the public option. Unfortunately, they chose the worse option.
 
But... buuut the media has been telling me that the semi will always be vapourware, as is the Cybertruck. And we all know journalists are always honest and thorough.

Really though, in regards to the Cybertruck, we are seing the foundations for the two 9k tonne IDRA press machines being constructed in the Texas factory. At least one of the speculated two casting machines have been shipped to the US. Based on what we learnt from the 6k tonne press installation timeline, we are probably a couple of months off seeing assembly of the first 9k press machine for Cybertruck front & rear castings.



I've never been more fascinated about the development of any vehicle before - Some of these methods have never been attempted for mass scalability, so I'm curious how exactly Tesla will pull it off.

One thing is for sure, it has become painfully obvious that the Cybertruck will indeed exist close to its pre-production form we saw at the Cyber rodeo event, and production will start next year.
 
But... buuut the media has been telling me that the semi will always be vapourware, as is the Cybertruck. And we all know journalists are always honest and thorough.
I don't think there were many people that doubted the semi-truck, but the Cybertruck is very much an "I'll believe it when I see it." Even if the Cybertruck ends up being real, I don't see it selling very well. Tesla missed the mark big time by not beating Ford and GM to market. Trying to compete with Ford on anything truck related is going to be next to impossible, and when you add the GM pair to the mix, it'll become more difficult. It's not even going to capture the "I don't want a name brand truck" market too, since Rivian already beat them there as well.

About the only thing it will compete with is that monstrosity Hummer EV. So the target market is pretty much going to be "influencers."

I'm still not sure what the point of the Cybertruck is either. It's not going to do truck things well at all, it's going to be too heavy to really go off-road, and if they sell it with those tires, it's going to chew through the range rather quickly. There was so much Tesla could've done with their truck, but instead, they (or really Musk) made something useless. Something to compete against trucks like the Ford Maverick would've been excellent since there is absolutely a need for a mid-sized, electric truck that gets decent range and works well in an urban environment.
 
It'll sell like crazy based on looks alone. A lot of people out there these days that feel like they need to draw attention to themselves will buy one to get their fix. 😆
 
It'll sell like crazy based on looks alone. A lot of people out there these days that feel like they need to draw attention to themselves will buy one to get their fix. 😆
I mean, you're not really wrong. I've no doubt a number of Youtube influencers are going to jump on it for that reason alone, and every neighborhood has at least one household who need to have a "look at my paycheck" driveway decoration that no one else has.

The real question is how well is it gonna sell after the initial novelty period has worn off, and people have had to actually live with it for a year or so.
 
But... buuut the media has been telling me that the semi will always be vapourware, as is the Cybertruck. And we all know journalists are always honest and thorough.

Granted there's often a similar degree of cynicism around anything Musk says, as is there blind belief, but most of the criticism I've seen is centered around failure to deliver what he's claimed he'd deliver either when he said he'd deliver it, if at all. The simple day to day performance and suitability remains to be seen, but, as with electric cars, there's little reason to believe it won't be a suitable solution for a big piece of the market. The timescale is an obvious **** up though... announced 5 years ago with deliveries slated to start in 2019, here we are, nearly in 2023. Okay, so put that error of judgment down to whatever you want... but then look at the other stuff that was presented as part of what the Semi was going to be during the Semi presentation event.

"Travel anywhere in the world on the Tesla Megacharger network"... how's that coming along? "we can guarantee the electricity rates because these will be solar powered mega chargers", that'll be great news for achieving the cost benefits Elon stated, but again, it's not here yet, and certainly seems to be a way off "It’s 24/7 guaranteed"...

... and then you get onto the statements made about the economics of it, let's not forget Elon also said running a diesel truck would be "economic suicide", and also "suicide for rail"...

The promises, the expectation and the hype that was built by the Semi pitch is not fulfilled simply by delivering battery powered trucks, and anyone saying "Look, Elon delivered!!" is being as disingenuous as someone who told you "it will always be vapourware".

I note Mercedes have already shifted 400+ eTrucks (and Buses) in the first half of this year, on top of 3,300 eVans, for moving freight... (and we've also had "eTrains" for shifting cargo for decades!)...

One thing is for sure, it has become painfully obvious that the Cybertruck will indeed exist close to its pre-production form we saw at the Cyber rodeo event, and production will start next year.
The real question is how well is it gonna sell after the initial novelty period has worn off, and people have had to actually live with it for a year or so.

Something like >1,000,000 deposits, I'd assume most of those will be in the USA so I'd imagine they'll be a common-ish sight.
 
Something like >1,000,000 deposits, I'd assume most of those will be in the USA so I'd imagine they'll be a common-ish sight.
Eh...those are fully refundable $100 deposits for a $50,000+* item...not exactly ironclad product orders. This was transparently an interest-free borrowing scheme rather than a serious reservation system.

*The original base price was stated to be $40,000. However, you can't even get a base model Model 3 for less than $45,000 anymore. If any cybertruck is sold for less than $60,000 I would be genuinely surprised. How many of those cybertruck deposits were based on a version of the product that may never exist? I suspect that, like the $35,000 Model 3, the base model cybertruck will be mostly mythical. If it exists at all. I find it really, really hard to believe that Tesla would be in the position to sell the cybertruck at any sort of loss, and it has clearly been a very expensive product to develop. I would guess that $100,000 will be much closer to the final price than $40,000.
 
Eh...those are fully refundable $100 deposits for a $50,000+* item...not exactly ironclad product orders. This was transparently an interest-free borrowing scheme rather than a serious reservation system.

*The original base price was stated to be $40,000. However, you can't even get a base model Model 3 for less than $45,000 anymore. If any cybertruck is sold for less than $60,000 I would be genuinely surprised. How many of those cybertruck deposits were based on a version of the product that may never exist? I suspect that, like the $35,000 Model 3, the base model cybertruck will be mostly mythical. If it exists at all. I find it really, really hard to believe that Tesla would be in the position to sell the cybertruck at any sort of loss, and it has clearly been a very expensive product to develop. I would guess that $100,000 will be much closer to the final price than $40,000.

I agree from Tesla's point of view it was crowd-funding for the company's future, and I agree some people won't see it through, but even if half of them go for a refund (or have gone for a refund), it'll still be one of the best selling trucks there is in the US. Honestly at this point I could see it going either way - don't under estimate the power of the Tesla cult! And if I'm wrong about that, I'll just have a little chortle and be glad I'll probably never have to see one in the flesh in the UK anyway.
 
I agree from Tesla's point of view it was crowd-funding for the company's future, and I agree some people won't see it through, but even if half of them go for a refund (or have gone for a refund), it'll still be one of the best selling trucks there is in the US. Honestly at this point I could see it going either way - don't under estimate the power of the Tesla cult! And if I'm wrong about that, I'll just have a little chortle and be glad I'll probably never have to see one in the flesh in the UK anyway.
I can only speculate, but I would be really surprised if those 1,000,000 "deposits" translate to even 200,000 actual sales. The Tesla dealership near me is at capacity...meaning that there is no space on the lot to fit more vehicles. Right across the highway is a Honda dealership with maybe 5 or 6 new cars and an almost entirely empty parking lot. A lot of that is that Honda's manufacturing (like most of the industry) was not sufficiently vertically integrated (particularly with electronics) to handle the supply shock. The BMW dealer nearby is a little bit better. But what I'm getting at is that Tesla has a lot of sitting inventory in an environment of scarce new cars. A LOT. Tesla is currently moving between 100-200k Model 3s a year (difficult to really understand a clear trend with the pandemic) and that's not for lack of inventory. The Model 3 is a perfectly useful car and a genuine alternative to a BMW 3 series or really any sedan. The model Y is arguably a better fit for the market, and it sells about the same amount. To suggest that they would be selling 4-5x more cybertrucks yearly (which they would have to do to outsell brands like Ford & GM*) I think is wildly unrealistic, and the reservation figure is basically an unreliable indicator of genuine interest because A: It was very little money, B: they reflect on a product that is probably going to be much different (at least in terms of price) than was originally advertised, C: (related to A & B) There was no income verification required for the deposit (of course) so people who can't even afford the thing could have reserved one, D: This is Elon Musk we're talking about, I'm certain there is embellishment/padding of the numbers. Something else has changed since the cybertruck was unveiled too - Elon Musk. To drive around in a cybertruck in 2023/2024 is in the very least pretty damn conspicuous if not a tacit endorsement of the man.

There are a lot of Tesla/Musk stans out there, it's true - but are there 1,000,000 of them with $60k-$100k to burn on a giant, impractical assemblage of stainless steel - particularly as we are going into uncharted territory with the economy and interest rates? My money is on no.

Just my opinion, we'll find out eventually. Maybe.

*I just want to note...the Ford F series is utterly ubiquitous in the US at 750-900k annual sales like clockwork. They are literally everywhere. I honestly can't imagine seeing cybertrucks at the same rate as F series, my brain refuses to produce the image because it makes zero sense.
 
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The Tesla dealership near me is at capacity...meaning that there is no space on the lot to fit more vehicles
Tesla doesn't have dealers. Cars on the lots are either orders waiting to be delivered (paid for) or in for service. (If that location does service)
 
@Eunos_Cosmo

Yeah, I hear all that. I've no idea what kind of timescale it would take Tesla to produce 500,000 Cybertrucks... 2-3 years production allowing for ramp up maybe? Don't get me wrong, I think Elon is full of ****, and mostly I don't like the Tesla product (not because it's EV, I hate the interiors and the X and Y look awful - I'm low key cheering for the Model S Plaid to become an iconic American muscle car though)... however... I still think in the US they'll become a common sight.

Again, cars like the Hummer, the Rivians and the Lucid SUV might factor in more now than people thought when the Cybertruck was announced... We'll see... I've no skin in the game, the UK is not a big Pickup market.
 
@Eunos_Cosmo

Yeah, I hear all that. I've no idea what kind of timescale it would take Tesla to produce 500,000 Cybertrucks... 2-3 years production allowing for ramp up maybe? Don't get me wrong, I think Elon is full of ****, and mostly I don't like the Tesla product (not because it's EV, I hate the interiors and the X and Y look awful - I'm low key cheering for the Model S Plaid to become an iconic American muscle car though)... however... I still think in the US they'll become a common sight.

Again, cars like the Hummer, the Rivians and the Lucid SUV might factor in more now than people thought when the Cybertruck was announced... We'll see... I've no skin in the game, the UK is not a big Pickup market.
Yeah I'm not trying to be contrarian for the sake of it, I just like prognosticating. :lol:
 
I don't think there were many people that doubted the semi-truck, but the Cybertruck is very much an "I'll believe it when I see it." Even if the Cybertruck ends up being real, I don't see it selling very well. Tesla missed the mark big time by not beating Ford and GM to market. Trying to compete with Ford on anything truck related is going to be next to impossible, and when you add the GM pair to the mix, it'll become more difficult. It's not even going to capture the "I don't want a name brand truck" market too, since Rivian already beat them there as well.

About the only thing it will compete with is that monstrosity Hummer EV. So the target market is pretty much going to be "influencers."

I'm still not sure what the point of the Cybertruck is either. It's not going to do truck things well at all, it's going to be too heavy to really go off-road, and if they sell it with those tires, it's going to chew through the range rather quickly. There was so much Tesla could've done with their truck, but instead, they (or really Musk) made something useless. Something to compete against trucks like the Ford Maverick would've been excellent since there is absolutely a need for a mid-sized, electric truck that gets decent range and works well in an urban environment.

That could be true. From what I've seen, consumers in the US truck market are extremely loyal to the brands they have been using for decades. Even if Tesla does offer a superior product, it will be difficult to convince many of those people to switch to Tesla.

Your comment on the Hummer being the only real competitor to the Cybertruck - Do you mean this in terms of polarising design, functionality, or number of units sold? I would personally prefer a truck which has been designed using a bespoke EV platform rather than a modified traditional chassis, as it helps with efficiency, safety, and perhaps also a bit of weight.

Then there's also the nerdy stuff which I find appealing, such as V4.0 FSD hardware, waterproofing, biohazard air filters, 4-wheel steering, steer-by-wire system, Teslas software with continuous over-the-air updates, and the ridiculously tough body panels with no paint to worry about. I think it looks rather cool too... But I'm weird.

Granted there's often a similar degree of cynicism around anything Musk says, as is there blind belief, but most of the criticism I've seen is centered around failure to deliver what he's claimed he'd deliver either when he said he'd deliver it, if at all. The simple day to day performance and suitability remains to be seen, but, as with electric cars, there's little reason to believe it won't be a suitable solution for a big piece of the market. The timescale is an obvious **** up though... announced 5 years ago with deliveries slated to start in 2019, here we are, nearly in 2023. Okay, so put that error of judgment down to whatever you want... but then look at the other stuff that was presented as part of what the Semi was going to be during the Semi presentation event.

"Travel anywhere in the world on the Tesla Megacharger network"... how's that coming along? "we can guarantee the electricity rates because these will be solar powered mega chargers", that'll be great news for achieving the cost benefits Elon stated, but again, it's not here yet, and certainly seems to be a way off "It’s 24/7 guaranteed"...

... and then you get onto the statements made about the economics of it, let's not forget Elon also said running a diesel truck would be "economic suicide", and also "suicide for rail"...

The promises, the expectation and the hype that was built by the Semi pitch is not fulfilled simply by delivering battery powered trucks, and anyone saying "Look, Elon delivered!!" is being as disingenuous as someone who told you "it will always be vapourware".

My comment was just a cheeky jab at the people who said the Semi will never exist... And there were plenty of people. But yes, I completely agree. Elon timelines are usually far too over-ambitious. We know that demand for battery cells have caused a huge bottleneck for Tesla's future product expansions. Combined with the unexpected demand for the 3 and the Y, they had to dedicate their battery supplies to those two vehicles and put Semi and Cybertruck on the backburner.

But I shall rant. We know the Roadster 2.0 was always intended as a low-volume product, capacity at no more than 200kWh per unit, and the Semi contains up to 1MWh per unit (And we have learnt recently they are not even dependent on 4680 cells!). So my question is, where the heck have they been for the last two years? I know the Model Y ramp is important when they are making north of 20% profit margin on each vehicle, but surely they could have sacrificed a few thousand Y's in order to start producing the Semi on time.
The Roadster 2.0 delay is even less understandable, considering it shares existing hardware with the S Plaid+. I 100% agree that Tesla should not announce a new product with a sale date unless they have the design finalised and resources reserved, with potential delays taken into account.

Saying that, they did release the Model Y six months earlier than promised, so perhaps Elon is beginning to restrain his timeline expectations.

I note Mercedes have already shifted 400+ eTrucks (and Buses) in the first half of this year, on top of 3,300 eVans, for moving freight... (and we've also had "eTrains" for shifting cargo for decades!)...
Those eTrucks are at 240kWh capacity - Not the same product as a Class 8, 1MWh Semi.
The eVans are brilliant, and Mercedes needs to focus on ramping production.

*I just want to note...the Ford F series is utterly ubiquitous in the US at 750-900k annual sales like clockwork. They are literally everywhere. I honestly can't imagine seeing cybertrucks at the same rate as F series, my brain refuses to produce the image because it makes zero sense.
I personally think that the Cybertruck will outsell the F-150 Lightning within two years of production due to its manufacturing
speed and larger battery supply. Ford is cell constrained, but will be aiming to produce 150,000 Lightnings next year.
Cybertuck will not outsell overall F series anytime soon though! I doubt 900k potential customers per year will even exist.


But what I'm getting at is that Tesla has a lot of sitting inventory in an environment of scarce new cars.
R1600Turbo is correct here - This will just be a Tesla delivery/collection center for cars already paid for.
 
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Your comment on the Hummer being the only real competitor to the Cybertruck - Do you mean this in terms of polarising design, functionality, or number of units sold? I would personally prefer a truck which has been designed using a bespoke EV platform rather than a modified traditional chassis, as it helps with efficiency, safety, and perhaps also a bit of weight.

Then there's also the nerdy stuff which I find appealing, such as V4.0 FSD hardware, waterproofing, biohazard air filters, 4-wheel steering, steer-by-wire system, Teslas software with continuous over-the-air updates, and the ridiculously tough body panels with no paint to worry about. I think it looks rather cool too... But I'm weird.
The Cybertruck is a terrible truck design that can't be used like a truck. The bed is useless, the off-road capabilities will be awful, and like any EV I have to imagine when you start towing anything, the range will be awful. The Hummer is more or less the same way, it's a big useless truck that attracts people that don't use a truck as a truck but think they need one to go to Home Depot once a year. While there are some people out there that buy a truck because they think they need it, the most significant number of truck sales come from people who do need a truck for truck things (fleet and commercial). So basically, the Cybertruck will compete with the Hummer EV as a fashion accessory for people that don't really need a truck and also don't want something from one of the main manufacturers.

The techy stuff on the Cybertruck is just gimmicky too and probably won't really attract many buyers. I mean, my truck is waterproof to a certain depth, as are most trucks, so that's not really that big of a selling point. The biohazard stuff is a gimmick, as are the "indestructible" panels and "bulletproof" glass. Four-wheel-steering has been tried on trucks numerous times and it's never good, plus it just overcomplicates the rear suspension. Steer by wire is neither here nor there, and I'm going to guess a majority of people wouldn't even know what that means. And the over the updates? That's a negative for many people since they because it means features could be disabled if they don't pay a monthly subscription or whatever. I can't say I blame that for that either.

This is, of course, assuming the Cybertruck ever sees the light of day.

The only way I could see the Cybertruck being successful is if Tesla gets a contract from someplace like U-Haul, which I can't see happening. The Big 2 American manufacturers pretty much have that on lock and those that don't do fleet sales through them, buy a Ram or Toyota and to a lesser extent a Nissan. Trying to compete with Ford and GM in the US truck market is really a fruitless endeavor for anyone. Even Rivian is likely going to fail and they have a purpose-built EV truck.
 
That could be true. From what I've seen, consumers in the US truck market are extremely loyal to the brands they have been using for decades. Even if Tesla does offer a superior product, it will be difficult to convince many of those people to switch to Tesla.

Your comment on the Hummer being the only real competitor to the Cybertruck - Do you mean this in terms of polarising design, functionality, or number of units sold? I would personally prefer a truck which has been designed using a bespoke EV platform rather than a modified traditional chassis, as it helps with efficiency, safety, and perhaps also a bit of weight.

Then there's also the nerdy stuff which I find appealing, such as V4.0 FSD hardware, waterproofing, biohazard air filters, 4-wheel steering, steer-by-wire system, Teslas software with continuous over-the-air updates, and the ridiculously tough body panels with no paint to worry about. I think it looks rather cool too... But I'm weird.



My comment was just a cheeky jab at the people who said the Semi will never exist... And there were plenty of people. But yes, I completely agree. Elon timelines are usually far too over-ambitious. We know that demand for battery cells have caused a huge bottleneck for Tesla's future product expansions. Combined with the unexpected demand for the 3 and the Y, they had to dedicate their battery supplies to those two vehicles and put Semi and Cybertruck on the backburner.

But I shall rant. We know the Roadster 2.0 was always intended as a low-volume product, capacity at no more than 200kWh per unit, and the Semi contains up to 1MWh per unit (And we have learnt recently they are not even dependent on 4680 cells!). So my question is, where the heck have they been for the last two years? I know the Model Y ramp is important when they are making north of 20% profit margin on each vehicle, but surely they could have sacrificed a few thousand Y's in order to start producing the Semi on time.
The Roadster 2.0 delay is even less understandable, considering it shares existing hardware with the S Plaid+. I 100% agree that Tesla should not announce a new product with a sale date unless they have the design finalised and resources reserved, with potential delays taken into account.

Saying that, they did release the Model Y six months earlier than promised, so perhaps Elon is beginning to restrain his timeline expectations.


Those eTrucks are at 240kWh capacity - Not the same product as a Class 8, 1MWh Semi.
The eVans are brilliant, and Mercedes needs to focus on ramping production.


I personally think that the Cybertruck will outsell the F-150 Lightning within two years of production due to its manufacturing
speed and larger battery supply. Ford is cell constrained, but will be aiming to produce 150,000 Lightnings next year.
Cybertuck will not outsell overall F series anytime soon though! I doubt 900k potential customers per year will even exist.



R1600Turbo is correct here - This will just be a Tesla delivery/collection center for cars already paid for.
I'm not an expert on Tesla's delivery model, but I would guess this Gallery/Showroom/Center has around 200 cars on their lot. Is that normal? This is in addition to a service center a few miles away.
 
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@Joey D
How many units per year would the Cybertruck need to achieve in order for you to consider it a success?
I said it earlier, I believe the Cybertruck will outsell its main EV competitors within a couple of years of production - And please hold my words accountable!

The demand will be there, even if you personally do not understand the appeal of Teslas software and durable exterior panels. I understand the disadvantage of having a smaller tray... But as far as I can see, this is the only legitimate reason to buy a Ford Lighting instead.

I'm not an expert on Tesla's delivery model, but I would guess this Gallery/Showroom/Center has around 200 cars on their lot. Is that normal? This is in addition to a service center a few miles away.

Is this in California? That would be a pretty typical number of cars in more populated areas. Because of Tesla's unique sales method, they are legally not allowed to sell vehicles in some states like Texas, so they try and find loopholes, or just sell them through nearby states which allow direct-to-customer sales.
 
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