Tesla Master Plan: Part Deux

[Joey D]

How many units per year would the Cybertruck need to achieve in order for you to consider it a success?

It's largely going to depend on when it comes out and how much it costs. Say it comes out next year at a price of $60k, then 3,000 units a month for the first year is likely good since that seems to be the benchmark at this point. It's hard to tell what the market will do though.

The demand will be there, even if you personally do not understand the appeal of Teslas software and durable exterior panels. I understand the disadvantage of having a smaller tray... But as far as I can see, this is the only legitimate reason to buy a Ford Lighting instead.

There are far more reasons to buy the Ford over Tesla, the main one being that the F-150 is a tried and tested platform. Yes, the Lightning isn't exactly the same as the ICE version, but Ford has had decades to perfect the design of the truck, and it pumps more money into it than any other product. The second is a dealer and service network. I live in BFE Michigan, and there's a Ford dealer and service center 6 miles away in what passes here for a town. The nearest Tesla showroom and service center is 200 miles away. I get that the maintenance on an EV isn't nearly as involved as an ICE vehicle, but you're still going to need it serviced and Tesla just hasn't been around long enough to build a service network. The third thing is accessories and aftermarket. I'm not talking about lifts or anything like that, but actual utility stuff like toolboxes, bed racks, and things like that.

The final thing is usability. All pick-up trucks look the same because that's the design that works the best. If there was a better design, it would've been figured out by now. Deviating from that merely to change up the look will result in a loss of usability. An F-150, Silverado, or Sierra EV will all be more useful as a truck than the Tesla. This is why I say people who treat trucks as a fashion accessory would be the ones considering a Cybertruck, but those who use a truck as a truck likely won't which is a relatively small market. For a long time this wasn't the case since it seemed like everyone was buying a pick-up, but those people have now moved on to some flavour of crossover.

 

[Danoff]

This is why I say people who treat trucks as a fashion accessory would be the ones considering a Cybertruck

The thing is, this is what a pickup looks like when it's a fashion accessory.

I don't think this crowd has a lot of "cyberpunk" in their fashion taste. So really, this truck has to appeal to a demand that hasn't really been recognized by the market yet. We have to imagine that there are a lot of 80s kids out there who want to bladerunner out with their pickup truck. I mean, it could be the case, and we don't know it yet, but it seems so far like it's a billionaire guessing that he knows best what people think will be cool.

 

[Tornado]

I said it earlier, I believe the Cybertruck will outsell its main EV competitors within a couple of years of production

This means less than you intended it to, I suspect. The only direct competitor the Cybertruck actually has at this point is the Hummer; and while you can probably make the case for Rivian the R1T is explicitly chasing a market (the Range Rover set) that the Cybertruck is not. The market segment of domestic bread and butter full size trucks (but now electrified) was never going to be realistic competition for Tesla and in the long run post-ICE bans never will be.

But as far as I can see, this is the only legitimate reason to buy a Ford Lighting instead.

I strongly suspect there will be 20 to 30,000 reasons.

 

[EngieDiesel]

There's also the fact that the Cybertruck is now planned to start production at the end of 2023, presuming no further delays, and the Lightning is already on the market and sold close to 2,500 units last month. By the time the Tesla shows up the Lightning will have likely locked down the EV truck market the same way the Raptor had the performance truck market locked down by the time others bothered to make their efforts, not by necessarily having the superior product but simply by not having any actual competition for long enough that it becomes the McDonald's of the segment.

 

[Joey D]

The thing is, this is what a pickup looks like when it's a fashion accessory.

I don't think this crowd has a lot of "cyberpunk" in their fashion taste. So really, this truck has to appeal to a demand that hasn't really been recognized by the market yet. We have to imagine that there are a lot of 80s kids out there who want to bladerunner out with their pickup truck. I mean, it could be the case, and we don't know it yet, but it seems so far like it's a billionaire guessing that he knows best what people think will be cool.

For sure, that's definitely a fashion accessory, but there's more to it than that I think. I was mostly talking about about the type of person who buys a truck and never does anything remotely truck-like with it. Basically, someone who should've bought a car or crossover, but opted for a pick-up so they can be viewed as "manly" or whatever and uses it to commute back and forth to work and nothing else. Those people might buy a Cybertruck if the price is right and they like the looks. The problem is, that market isn't nearly big enough to sustain a product is a crowded market segment. Unless Tesla can attract commercial and fleet sales, the Cybertruck won't sell extremely well, and I don't see that happening since the Cybertruck is terrible as a truck.

Tesla will absolutely sell a decent number of them in the beginning for the reason you mentioned. Cyberpunk styling is big for some people and it heavily intersects with the tech bro demographic as well, however once they get one and had their fill, they'll be on to the next shiny thing.

 

[Danoff]

For sure, that's definitely a fashion accessory, but there's more to it than that I think. I was mostly talking about about the type of person who buys a truck and never does anything remotely truck-like with it. Basically, someone who should've bought a car or crossover, but opted for a pick-up so they can be viewed as "manly" or whatever and uses it to commute back and forth to work and nothing else. Those people might buy a Cybertruck if the price is right and they like the looks. The problem is, that market isn't nearly big enough to sustain a product is a crowded market segment. Unless Tesla can attract commercial and fleet sales, the Cybertruck won't sell extremely well, and I don't see that happening since the Cybertruck is terrible as a truck.

Tesla will absolutely sell a decent number of them in the beginning for the reason you mentioned. Cyberpunk styling is big for some people and it heavily intersects with the tech bro demographic as well, however once they get one and had their fill, they'll be on to the next shiny thing.

Since the cybertruck's inception, pickup trucks (especially as fashion accessories) have also become more and more synonymous with facism and insurrection. I don't know whether that works for or against the cybertruck at the moment. I can see it cutting both ways. Regardless, I think, with the styling of the truck, it pretty much has to market to people that don't usually buy pickups. It's also so connected with Elon that those people also have to be not put off by that connection. Seems niche.

 

[Tornado]

There's also the fact that the Cybertruck is now planned to start production at the end of 2023, presuming no further delays, and the Lightning is already on the market and sold close to 2,500 units last month. By the time the Tesla shows up the Lightning will have likely locked down the EV truck market the same way the Raptor had the performance truck market locked down by the time others bothered to make their efforts, not by necessarily having the superior product but simply by not having any actual competition for long enough that it becomes the McDonald's of the segment.

Also (I'll say this recognizing that Jajoca might not be familiar with this market segment in the US), I feel some things have been interpreted backward: The full size domestic truck market wasn't a ripened tomato just waiting around for Tesla to show up and convince everyone how to do it right by plucking it. This particular segment is very much the opposite: Tesla not getting the thing out in a timely matter before the domestic manufacturers announced (and in Ford's case, released) their entries doomed any chance of the Cybertruck not being a niche product. It's unquestionably their market (to the extent of being semi-codified in US law) and now their products (Dodge being a bit behind) are imminent and buying an electric truck from the brand that they always buy from is what people were actually waiting for.





It took a decade for Toyota to even carve out a steady, extremely distant 5th. Nissan poured a ton of money they probably could have used elsewhere into trying and ultimately bellyflopped.

Since the cybertruck's inception, pickup trucks (especially as fashion accessories) have also become more and more synonymous with facism and insurrection. I don't know whether that works for or against the cybertruck at the moment. I can see it cutting both ways.

Not specifically Cybertruck related (and honestly more that pig GM makes is far worse), but one concern I've had is when someone figures out that their electric pickup truck or SUV would make a far better protest dispersal implement than some Charger or Challenger.

 

[EngieDiesel]

It's unquestionably their market (to the extent of being semi-codified in US law) and now their products (Dodge being a bit behind) are imminent and buying an electric truck from the brand that they always buy from is what people were actually waiting for.

Especially when you consider that customer loyalty figures are a loudly trumpeted marketing point when it comes to trucks. I regularly get local dealer ads in my mailbox about how one brand or another has the highest customer loyalty of all the others, according to whatever commissioned study or cherry-picked numbers they care to attach a dozen asterisks to. That said, I'm also old enough to remember when Ford vs. Chevy bar brawls were a semi-common occurrence while growing up in the backwoods of Michigan, so it's not all hyperbole and is still very much a thing even in the less, ah, rural parts of the country.

That's also why I have my doubts that the Tesla semi is going to really garner much market share in the long run. They may get fleet orders but the vast majority of trucks in America are still independent owner-drivers, and for those folks it's not so much brand loyalty as it is an entire lifestyle (as you'd expect from a profession where you literally live out of your vehicle for long stretches).

 

[CodeRedR51]

 

[Northstar]

Without any other information it’s hard to tell if that’s impressive or not.

 

[MatskiMonk]

Hands up who wouldn't be surprised if this was the first time Tesla had actually tried that.

 

[Adamgp]

81k lbs is 1k over the legal limit to haul without a permit, so it sounds like they are testing it for heavy haul.

Wonder how long it took them to complete the trip. 500 miles is a short, easy drive in a diesel truck.

 

[Joey D]

Without any other information it’s hard to tell if that’s impressive or not.

I'm pretty sure federal law states that a truck can't be over 80,000 lbs without certain permits. So it's likely not legal.

Otherwise, a fully loaded diesel rig averages about 1,500 miles before needing to refuel.

 

[Keef]

Without any other information it’s hard to tell if that’s impressive or not.

In my opinion that is QUITE impressive for a BEV of any type, assuming it was a single charge. Much of the highway and local truck traffic these days is regional and most of those drive under 500 miles in a day, and the vast majority of those are hauling nowhere near a full load.

If it did that on a single charge then it’s literally the perfect regional semi and hopefully will alleviate a lot of trucking traffic in the future.

 

[CodeRedR51]

81k lbs is 1k over the legal limit to haul without a permit, so it sounds like they are testing it for heavy haul.

Wonder how long it took them to complete the trip. 500 miles is a short, easy drive in a diesel truck.

EV trucks are allowed an extra 2k pounds.

The Tesla Semi is allowed to be heavier than other trucks. Here's why

The Tesla Semi falls into a new category of alternative power Class 8 semis that are allowed to weigh 2,000 pounds more than other trucks to accommodate batteries.

www.foxnews.com

 

[Adamgp]

EV trucks are allowed an extra 2k pounds.

The Tesla Semi is allowed to be heavier than other trucks. Here's why

The Tesla Semi falls into a new category of alternative power Class 8 semis that are allowed to weigh 2,000 pounds more than other trucks to accommodate batteries.

www.foxnews.com

Makes sense. That was my other thought, the weight of this truck compared to a diesel.

 

[Northstar]

In my opinion that is QUITE impressive for a BEV of any type, assuming it was a single charge. Much of the highway and local truck traffic these days is regional and most of those drive under 500 miles in a day, and the vast majority of those are hauling nowhere near a full load.

If it did that on a single charge then it’s literally the perfect regional semi and hopefully will alleviate a lot of trucking traffic in the future.

Like I said, it’s hard to tell if it’s impressive or not with little info. Was it on one charge? What were the traffic conditions? Was it all highway, city or mixed? How much elevation change was there?

As it is it’s like saying you earned a million dollars and nothing else to add context. It really could be an amazing accomplishment or it could just mean you've been in the labor force for awhile.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

In my opinion that is QUITE impressive for a BEV of any type, assuming it was a single charge. Much of the highway and local truck traffic these days is regional and most of those drive under 500 miles in a day, and the vast majority of those are hauling nowhere near a full load.

If it did that on a single charge then it’s literally the perfect regional semi and hopefully will alleviate a lot of trucking traffic in the future.

Can you elaborate on this? I'm not connecting the dots.

 

[Keef]

Can you elaborate on this? I'm not connecting the dots.

Many of the highway traffic problems we deal with are caused by semi trucks. I’m not talking about the number of vehicles - unless you live in in California or NYC (heh) it’s not the number of vehicles that is the problem, it’s their behavior.

Diesel trucks cause 90% of the issues we deal with. Slowing down uphill, speeding up downhill, slowing down too early for exists, not being able to merge on entrances. They’re literally never going the speed limit. They try to pass each other in the most pathetic ways. A single semi on a two-lane freeway can cause an accordion that would bring a tear to Weird Al’s eye. The trucks lack technology, their drivers lack discipline, etc. Also they’re loud as hell and obnoxious.

The Tesla Semi solves all those problems. It’s got the power - and the regen braking - to maintain speed in virtually all scenarios. It can pass in a hurry. It can slow down and speed up effectively on ramps. It’ll have autopilot to help fight crosswinds and alleviate car drivers being scared to pass. They’ll be able to maintain spacing on the highway and even convoy with each other. The days of semis blocking both lanes while they tug each other are over. Semis will no longer be unruly, unpredictable rolling road blocks.

Many of the trucks who contribute to these problems are intercity and regional trucks moving from warehouse to warehouse, not coast to coast. The whole triangle from Dayton to Cincy to Columbus back to Dayton is only 250 miles. Cincy to Detroit is also 250 miles. Cincy to Chicago is 300. Cincy to St Louis is 350. The Semi being able to carry a full load 500 miles is massive for the Midwest where intercity trucking is a huge source of traffic.

 

[CodeRedR51]

They’re literally never going the speed limit.

A lot are speed limited unless they are owner/operator. This same limit will apply to EV trucks.

 

[EngieDiesel]

Diesel trucks cause 90% of the issues we deal with. Slowing down uphill, speeding up downhill, slowing down too early for exists, not being able to merge on entrances. They’re literally never going the speed limit. They try to pass each other in the most pathetic ways. A single semi on a two-lane freeway can cause an accordion that would bring a tear to Weird Al’s eye. The trucks lack technology, their drivers lack discipline, etc. Also they’re loud as hell and obnoxious.

Having spent some time in those trucks when I worked for a moving company (not as a driver mind, but still in the cab), I can tell you that in many instances the fault isn't the truck driver or the truck itself, it's the cars around them that don't understand how to merge correctly and then act like it was the truck's job to get out of their way, or cut the truck off and then slam their brakes because they see a cop with a radar gun, or actively refuse to make space and force the truck to slow down and go behind them to change lanes which screws up everyone else. All of those things being examples that happened to the truck I was riding in on a single trip from Columbus to Cincinnati. The trip back wasn't much better.

If you think semi drivers are insane road bullies causing trouble for laughs, you should probably look into how expensive it is to get a Class A commercial driver's license and how difficult it is to get it reinstated if you lose it. Not to say that there aren't inexperienced or clueless drivers out there, but the vast majority of them actually care about their jobs and what's going on around them.

A lot are speed limited unless they are owner/operator. This same limit will apply to EV trucks.

Not to mention the posted highway speed limit for trucks in most states is 55 to 65, depending on how close to civilization you are. I wouldn't want to go much faster with a fully loaded trailer anyway.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

Many of the highway traffic problems we deal with are caused by semi trucks. I’m not talking about the number of vehicles - unless you live in in California or NYC (heh) it’s not the number of vehicles that is the problem, it’s their behavior.

Diesel trucks cause 90% of the issues we deal with. Slowing down uphill, speeding up downhill, slowing down too early for exists, not being able to merge on entrances. They’re literally never going the speed limit. They try to pass each other in the most pathetic ways. A single semi on a two-lane freeway can cause an accordion that would bring a tear to Weird Al’s eye. The trucks lack technology, their drivers lack discipline, etc. Also they’re loud as hell and obnoxious.

The Tesla Semi solves all those problems. It’s got the power - and the regen braking - to maintain speed in virtually all scenarios. It can pass in a hurry. It can slow down and speed up effectively on ramps. It’ll have autopilot to help fight crosswinds and alleviate car drivers being scared to pass. They’ll be able to maintain spacing on the highway and even convoy with each other. The days of semis blocking both lanes while they tug each other are over. Semis will no longer be unruly, unpredictable rolling road blocks.

Many of the trucks who contribute to these problems are intercity and regional trucks moving from warehouse to warehouse, not coast to coast. The whole triangle from Dayton to Cincy to Columbus back to Dayton is only 250 miles. Cincy to Detroit is also 250 miles. Cincy to Chicago is 300. Cincy to St Louis is 350. The Semi being able to carry a full load 500 miles is massive for the Midwest where intercity trucking is a huge source of traffic.

Well luckily for me, Marin & SF are not along major freight corridors (most freight travels east or north from Oakland, we only get last-mile box trucks up here mostly) so it's not something I deal with very much but I think I get what you are saying. However, I don't agree that electrifying the trucks will solve this as completely as you are hoping for. I don't think an EV truck with 81,000lbs in tow is going to be all that brisk (Tesla says 20 seconds 0-60), especially while trying to preserve range. The trucks will still be big and they will still have to navigate urban areas slowly. I could see marginal improvements but to say it will "solve" the problem is quite a stretch.

I also don't happen to think they are going to be widely adopted within 10 years.

 

[Danoff]

I don't think an EV truck with 81,000lbs in tow is going to be all that brisk (Tesla says 20 seconds 0-60), especially while trying to preserve range.

Isn't that like more than twice as fast as a typical diesel? (Edit: 3 times as fast according to Tesla)

I love the EV semi concept. Faster acceleration, regen braking for big efficiency boosts, and quiet.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

Isn't that like more than twice as fast as a typical diesel? (Edit: 3 times as fast according to Tesla)

I love the EV semi concept. Faster acceleration, regen braking for big efficiency boosts, and quiet.

I'm not really offering an opinion on how relatively fast it is compared to other trucks, but 20 seconds to 60mph, presumably at full batter depleting throttle, is not going "solve" the concerns that Keef laid out in his post, because relative to passenger cars, that's pretty dang slow - slower than an old VW beetle slow. BEV trucks undoubtedly have a lot of theoretical benefits* but significantly alleviating traffic due to freight I don't see as one of them.

*I'm still skeptical they will be actually fully realized

 

[Keef]

I'm not really offering an opinion on how relatively fast it is compared to other trucks, but 20 seconds to 60mph, presumably at full batter depleting throttle, is not going "solve" the concerns that Keef laid out in his post, because relative to passenger cars, that's pretty dang slow - slower than an old VW beetle slow. BEV trucks undoubtedly have a lot of theoretical benefits* but significantly alleviating traffic due to freight I don't see as one of them.

*I'm still skeptical they will be actually fully realized

You mention the box trucks but I am a little surprised you're not more familiar with the concept given how mountainous it is out yonder. @R1600Turbo and @EngieDiesel are kinda dodging the point as well - I'm not talking about speed limiters, or different truck speed limits, or mergers. I'm talking about how it's literally impossible for most trucks to maintain the speed limit uphill or downhill. South of Dayton and closer to Cincinnati on I-70 - and basically everything south of that - this becomes a tremendous problem with the constant rolling hills, and semis constantly speeding up and slowing down +/- 10 mph easy. It causes ridiculous traffic accordions. Literally all they have to do is maintain a constant speed like any car can and the problem is solved. The Tesla will be capable of that.

 

[CodeRedR51]

I'm talking about how it's literally impossible for most trucks to maintain the speed limit uphill or downhill.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

You mention the box trucks but I am a little surprised you're not more familiar with the concept given how mountainous it is out yonder. @R1600Turbo and @EngieDiesel are kinda dodging the point as well - I'm not talking about speed limiters, or different truck speed limits, or mergers. I'm talking about how it's literally impossible for most trucks to maintain the speed limit uphill or downhill. South of Dayton and closer to Cincinnati on I-70 - and basically everything south of that - this becomes a tremendous problem with the constant rolling hills, and semis constantly speeding up and slowing down +/- 10 mph easy. It causes ridiculous traffic accordions. Literally all they have to do is maintain a constant speed like any car can and the problem is solved. The Tesla will be capable of that.

It's not something I see around here...I think there just isn't that much freight transportation via highways. You see a lot of trucks on the 5 in central CA, but that's dead flat and straight. Maybe up north towards Redding you'd get some issues...but then again there aren't very many people up that way so probably not many trucks either. I don't remember it being a big deal in Texas either, but Texas has pretty robust highway network and it's flat. I don't remember a lot of trucks up in New England either. The only time I've noticed trucks backing up on hills is on the 5 heading north out of LA through the San Gabriel mountains and to a lesser extent coming into the Bay Area on 580 through the Diablo Range...but in both of those cases, the roads are at least 4 lanes and the trucks stick to the far right and don't cause too many issues. I'd guess this a bigger problem in the midwest/Appalachia where you have the combination of being far from sea ports, older/smaller road networks, lots of hills, and a lot of people distributed kind of all over the place. I'll have to take your word for it being a problem around where you are and I can see how a truck that can maintain speed could alleviate that. However, I seriously doubt a Tesla truck is going to be getting anywhere close to 500 miles of range if it's maintaining speed up hills. Regen will obviously help, but I'm doubtful it will be ultimately all that useful. I think a Tesla box truck for last mile stuff would have been a better fit for the limitations of the batteries, but those aren't exactly sexy.

There really should be overhead high voltage lines on some high-use freight corridors (like I45 in Texas, the 5 in CA, I10 from Texas to CA, etc) to allow for electric trucks to run without needing huge batteries. It's not unprecedented and can work in a limited scope like this. Then you give the trucks a 100 mile battery for "hand off" duty for local distribution. I might be in the minority, but I strongly believe big batteries are a waste of pretty rare and environmentally sensitive resources.

 

[CodeRedR51]

Here's some clarity on the 500 mile drive.

 

[Keef]

It looks from the highest point of the trip all the way to Pasadena, say from the 280 mile mark to 350, 70 miles total, the truck basically used net zero power due to regeneration. Seventy miles, zero power. Wow. That said, it seems only about 25% of uphill use is being recovered downhill and I'm not fluent enough in regenerative braking to know if that stands out in any way.

One thing I do know is that the 75% net loss of power over those extreme elevation gains simply won't exist in most of the country, especially here in the Midwest, so this fully loaded 500 mile trip instantly goes up by a considerable margin due to increased average efficiency.

Because of the terrain Tesla's operations are in they emphasize the truck's ability to climb grades, and that's good news for the Rockies and Appalachia, but extended grades are rare where I live. On the freeway, the only place they exist anywhere near me is at Ohio River crossings, for example southbound on I-75 into Kentucky. The freeway up that hill is four lanes wide for a reason, and there are tons of signs posted for slow vehicles to keep right. Trucks climbing that grade is a localized issue that was planned for.

No, the bigger issue is the rolling hills which I've mentioned several times and had more problems with today while out driving. We don't have to worry about slow semis or hot brakes around here, we have to worry about semis racing down one rolling hill so they can use that speed to get up the next one. Over and over and over again. Speed up, slow down, speed up, slow down. The Tesla truck simply won't do that, it'll power up, regen down, power up, regen down, maintaining speed as a car would do on Autopilot. Is choosing a speed and going it really that much to ask? I think not, but then again if the speed limit is 35 on a city road buddy I'm slappin that Toyota cruise control stalk like it was talking back to me.

But in places that don't even have rolling hills, like all of Ohio north of Dayton and everything west of here until Denver, the Tesla truck will benefit from little need for all three motors to engage, little need to negotiate genuinely slow traffic or to pass using full power, decreased rolling resistance due to straighter roads, and more consistent power usage leading to more accurate trip planning. I bet that Semi could cover the 530 miles from Detroit to St. Louis with room to spare and probably cover the 570 from Columbus to Green Bay. From Denver it's 540 miles to Omaha and 600 to Kansas City, both downhill, both with the wind...I bet that's totally doable, and they're important routes because there's a whole lot of nothing between Denver and either of those two cities. Hell, it's only 440 miles from Minneapolis to Kansas City, a straight shot and flatter'n a phone book. Get there with 20% left. Dallas, Houston, San Antonio: You can hit all three in 550 miles but not return home. But the Dallas, Houston, Austin circle can be completed in just a hair under 600 miles. Miami to Savannah? Orlando to Atlanta? I think you get the point.

God damn they can't build and sell these things fast enough.

 

[CodeRedR51]

It was also revealed that, like the Tesla Semi, the Cybertruck will also use 1mW charging. Coming to V4 Superchargers next year.

Tesla confirms Cybertruck is going to get 1 MW ultra-fast charging tech

Tesla confirmed that Tesla Cybertruck will also take advantage of the company's 1 MW ultra-fast charging technology.

electrek.co