Tesla Master Plan: Part Deux

[CodeRedR51]

You posted the Tweet. 🤷‍♂️ And literally nothing else.

As nothing in the post was yours, how on Earth was I "picking apart" your post?

Its what you do.

 

[Famine]

Its what you do.

Again, nothing in your post was yours. It was a Twitter embed of a Tesla tweet and nothing else.

Unless you're Tesla's social media guy there was nothing of yours to pick apart, thus making it impossible for me to pick apart your post.

This is the most imaginary slight ever conceived.


You're not curious about the data and the context for the data at all?

 

[CodeRedR51]

Again, nothing in your post was yours. It was a Twitter embed of a Tesla tweet and nothing else.

Unless you're Tesla's social media guy there was nothing of yours to pick apart, thus making it impossible for me to pick apart your post.

This is the most imaginary slight ever conceived.


You're not curious about the data and the context for the data at all?

I'm off for the next two weeks. I'm going to keep working on my car

Merry Christmas.

 

[Famine]

I'm off for the next two weeks. I'm going to keep working on my car

Cool story. Hopefully the rest of us can have a meaningful conversation about the data presented (such as it was) without weird sidebars in the interim.


So back to the Norway data. InsideEV, citing OFV (Norway's official motoring organisation), posts the following monthlies for the Modelly.

Nov - 3212
Oct - 47
Sep - 3063
Aug - 342
Jul - 38
Jun - 2533
May - 229
Apr - 45
Mar - 3305
Feb - Not recorded
Jan - Not recorded (combined Jan/Feb figures are 23 units)

March seems to be its best single month, so it's unlikely that Tesla is crowing about a monthly record. Maybe annual? I don't know what the Beetle's 1969 annual sales volume was, but YTD for the Modelly was reported on November 9 as 12,832.

Edit: Ahhh, good old BestSellingCarsBlog!

Norway 1968-1969: Beetle, Cortina and Kadett on podium

The 100,000th VW Beetle sold in Norway * See the Top 10 best-selling models by clicking on the title! Many thanks to Rene * While in 1968 the Norwegian car market gains only 0.1% to 65,229 registra…

bestsellingcarsblog.com

Looks like the Beetle sold 16,699 units in Norway in 1969. So the Modelly would need to have... 3,867 cars registered in December to match it, and that would be a monthly record for the car - as well as the only back-to-back four-figure sales months. Not sure annual is the answer either, so it's still rather unclear.


Another question is "why today"? OFV looks like it releases data on the first Friday of each month, and today isn't that... so where's the data from?

And why is Tesla being so opaque about such a niche thing anyway?

 

[Joey D]

Another question is "why today"? OFV looks like it releases data on the first Friday of each month, and today isn't that... so where's the data from?

This is one of the earliest mentions of the "record" but it doesn't give any sources either. Numerous blogs have quoted this Tweet as proof too, but I have no idea what the Twit is even looking at to get his graph.



So for "why today" my guess is some random dude on Twitter posted a sourceless chart and made the claim. I don't really see the reason to lie about it because earning the yearly sales record in Norway is kind of a weird record to hang the banner on. But still without sources it is a bit suspect, especially because Tesla fanboys aren't exactly the most truthful.

**Scratch that, it looks like this is the source: https://elbilstatistikk.no/

 

[Famine]

**Scratch that, it looks like this is the source: https://elbilstatistikk.no/

The official numbers from OFV (government organization) is not always the same as my numbers. That is because I include imported cars (cars not imported by the main distributor) and electric busses etc.

Seems the guy literally scans the public data hotel for Norway for new car registrations as they go live (a lot of Hongqi HS-9s going through right now...).

Looks like the differences are smallish though - 30-40 cars a month difference. At 3,xxx though there's too many to be all non-official; Tesla must have got another boat in, as you can see all other months are mere handfuls of cars then a four-figure quarterly delivery.


So the statement looks to actually be "Model Y just broke the annual bestselling car record in Norway, held since 1969 by the Beetle, with an estimated 16,700 units sold so far (pending official confirmation)!". Probably.

Bad and contextless stats make the baby Jesus cry. And at this time of year, Tesla? Really?

 

[Darla Starch]

And at this time of year, Tesla?

At this time of day? Localized entirely within your Tweet?

 

[ROAD_DOGG33J]

A Tesla owner says his car wouldn't charge in freezing temperatures, leaving him stranded on Christmas Eve

Domenick Nati told Insider that the problem has forced him to cancel his Christmas plans as no Ubers are available where he lives in Virginia.

news.yahoo.com

I wonder if any other electric cars also had issues during this cold blast, though 19 degrees isn't that bad.

 

[CodeRedR51]

A Tesla owner says his car wouldn't charge in freezing temperatures, leaving him stranded on Christmas Eve

Domenick Nati told Insider that the problem has forced him to cancel his Christmas plans as no Ubers are available where he lives in Virginia.

news.yahoo.com

I wonder if any other electric cars also had issues during this cold blast, though 19 degrees isn't that bad.

Ironically, this video was just posted recently.

 

[Northstar]

Man, that 2 weeks just flew by...

 

[CodeRedR51]

Man, that 2 weeks just flew by...

Off of work, smart guy.

 

[Northstar]

Off of work, smart guy.

All you said was that you were off for 2 weeks, you never said what exactly you were “off” of so it was only natural to think you were having yet another rage quit. @Famine seems to have come to the same conclusion and he is like 1,000x smarter than me, so yeah...

Cool story. Hopefully the rest of us can have a meaningful conversation about the data presented (such as it was) without weird sidebars in the interim.

A post which you unsurprisingly ignored despite you not being able to ignore him yet you did respond to me, someone that I’m rather confident is a long term resident on that list.

Now, since I have your attention. Can you please finally explain how an electric car hating person such as yourself comes to be such a Tesla defender?

 

[CodeRedR51]

Can you please finally explain how an electric car hating person such as yourself comes to be such a Tesla defender?

Who said I hated electric cars? They have their place, even if its not or ever will be in my garage.

 

[Joey D]

I mean purely anecdotal stuff is all well and good, but the truth is EVs do struggle in cold weather because batteries take a longer time to charge in temps under 40 degrees and the range is reduced as well. The condition of the batteries will play into how much of an effect it has too. So yes, I fully believe some people had problems with the cold, but having a car that's been in a "deep freeze" able to charge up doesn't really prove anything either.

Also, that Out of Spec channel is super cringy when you look at the comments.

"You're so brave for going out in the element at 3 am to bring us this information!"

My brothers in Christ, the dude and his wife are "influencers". They're going to do that sort of crap for clicks.

Can you please finally explain how an electric car hating person such as yourself comes to be such a Tesla defender?

It's becoming really, really common too. There are people who are diehard, environment hating, conservatives who are defending Tesla because they think Elon is a fine, upstanding person with their best interest in mind. I guess when you inhale too much of Elon's musk, you join the cult.

 

[TexRex]

Holy crap. Tesla dropping below 100 seems not only possible but likely. Last I saw, it was about to hit 114. Wasn't it over 300 earlier this year?

Man, that 2 weeks just flew by...

Grievances don't take vacations.

 

[Northstar]

Who said I hated electric cars? They have their place, even if its not or ever will be in my garage.

Sure you may have never used that exact word, but even your second sentence kind of proves what I’m getting at. It seems very odd to staunchly defend something while at the same actively disliking the very same thing.

So let me rephrase the question, if Tesla is so bloody wonderful, why don’t you want one? I mean, I very much dislike Elon, but I wouldn’t turn down a Tesla (it also wouldn’t be my first choice, but that’s a different discussion).

Holy crap. Tesla dropping below 100 seems not only possible but likely. Last I saw, it was about to hit 114. Wasn't it over 300 earlier this year?

Dropped to 112 now.

Also, it started the year at basically 400, it’s down 287 YTD.

 

[MatskiMonk]

Last I saw, it was about to hit 114. Wasn't it over 300 earlier this year?

YTD 52wk high was 402.67

YTD low is 111.85 (earlier today)

5D chess has an expensive buy in

Market cap aside it's price is now behind Ferrari, Toyota and VW.

edit: tree'd

 

[Famine]

5D chess has an expensive buy in

Perhaps he's going to buy back those $25bn of shares he sold over the course of the year for $7bn (after giving himself another $50bn Tesla bonus) and get back up to a 20% stake so he can bounce the BOD.

 

[TexRex]

Dropped to 112 now.

Also, it started the year at basically 400, it’s down 287 YTD.

God damn. I don't pay much attention to it, but I recall it being 300 in the not too distant past. Had no idea it was plummeting from 400.

 

[CodeRedR51]

Also, that Out of Spec channel is super cringy when you look at the comments.

"You're so brave for going out in the element at 3 am to bring us this information!"

My brothers in Christ, the dude and his wife are "influencers". They're going to do that sort of crap for clicks.

It is a very informative channel, the guy knows his **** and I quite enjoy learning from him.

Grievances don't take vacations.

Interpret it however you want, bullies tend to be that way. I meant what I meant.

even your second sentence kind of proves what I’m getting at.

No, it doesn't.

if Tesla is so bloody wonderful, why don’t you want one? I mean, I very much dislike Elon, but I wouldn’t turn down a Tesla

If someone gave one to me for free, sure. I would take it. But I won't be purchasing one, or any other EV for that matter.

 

[MatskiMonk]

Perhaps he's going to buy back those $25bn of shares he sold over the course of the year for $7bn (after giving himself another $50bn Tesla bonus) and get back up to a 20% stake so he can bounce the BOD.

I'm actually genuinely curious what he's up to. The thing that makes most sense (after him simply being an imbecile), is that he's tanking the price to do just that. That doesn't sound particularly legal to me, but what if there share price doesn't bounce back... surely that's a lot of money he's intentionally cost investors and traders... are they going to take that lying down? I mean, I get that it's basically gambling when it comes to T$LA in the past, but there were people buying the dip $100 ago. He's also exposing the company to buy ins from other players, the Chinese for example aren't above buying their way on to the board of major western car companies....

.. and where's the money coming from for him to buy them back anyway? He must have sold them because he needed the capital for something, and aside from Tesla, nothing's making that kind of money for him... has he found someone else to rinse for subsidies?

 

[TexRex]

Interpret it however you want, bullies tend to be that way. I meant what I meant.

Wilt.

 

[Tornado]

It could just be that he's kind of an idiot; and is so desperate to prove that he wasn't extremely lucky this whole time that he's willing to flush everything down the toilet to prove it. He's already under intense SEC scrutiny as is. If he deliberately tanked Tesla so he could regain control over it, it's not like they wouldn't notice.





It's not like we don't have an example of someone who works at an auto company who acts like an expert about everything and gets super tilted whenever proof is provided to the contrary.

So for "why today" my guess is some random dude on Twitter posted a sourceless chart and made the claim. I don't really see the reason to lie about it because earning the yearly sales record in Norway is kind of a weird record to hang the banner on.

 

[Famine]

.. and where's the money coming from for him to buy them back anyway?

He's due to pick up something like $1bn (admittedly in stock options) in a bonus for Tesla's Q3 (Oct-Dec) sales.

 

[MatskiMonk]

$1bn (admittedly in stock options)

So if it's agreed that the options are at the market rate then he'll be able to pick up more shares than he would have.

.. again, possibly to the detriment of other share holders.

 

[Northstar]

$109.10 is the bottom of today’s pit, seems very possible for it to dip below 100 tomorrow.

 

[Joey D]

$109.10 is the bottom of today’s pit, seems very possible for it to dip below 100 tomorrow.

At least someone is making money off them:

Short-sellers make $15 billion betting against Tesla as shares in Elon Musk's company sink by 70% this year

Bets against Elon Musk's EV maker proved more lucrative than any other US company this year, as the carmaker's value fell by about $800 billion.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Famine]

So if it's agreed that the options are at the market rate then he'll be able to pick up more shares than he would have.

.. again, possibly to the detriment of other share holders.

I think it's "x" options at "y" price to come out with a dollar value; if the price is above "y" then he makes more money, but if it's below "y" he makes less - he still gets "x" options.

If it was agreed when Tesla was at $200 share, his bonus will be doubled at $400 and halved at $100.

 

[TexRex]

lol

If someone gave one to me for free, sure. I would take it. But I won't be purchasing one, or any other EV for that matter.

Always against progress, no matter how good it is.

 

[CodeRedR51]

lol

Are we putting words in my mouth now? I mean, kind of expected from someone like you. Clicking on that second quote takes me to a post with nothing in it. Try harder.