Tesla Master Plan: Part Deux

  • Thread starter CodeRedR51
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Are we putting words in my mouth now? I mean, kind of expected from someone like you. Clicking on that second quote takes me to a post with nothing in it. Try harder.
And as you well know - and I can still see - those words (among others that got you a direct, in-thread warning about your conduct on this site) were in that post until you edited it to blank it. They were quoted in the post directly after it too.

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Lie harder.


This thread was much nicer in the "two weeks" you weren't in it. So I'm going to give everyone that time. Don't lie again.
 
I mean purely anecdotal stuff is all well and good, but the truth is EVs do struggle in cold weather because batteries take a longer time to charge in temps under 40 degrees and the range is reduced as well. The condition of the batteries will play into how much of an effect it has too. So yes, I fully believe some people had problems with the cold, but having a car that's been in a "deep freeze" able to charge up doesn't really prove anything either.

Also, that Out of Spec channel is super cringy when you look at the comments.

"You're so brave for going out in the element at 3 am to bring us this information!"

My brothers in Christ, the dude and his wife are "influencers". They're going to do that sort of crap for clicks.

It's becoming really, really common too. There are people who are diehard, environment hating, conservatives who are defending Tesla because they think Elon is a fine, upstanding person with their best interest in mind. I guess when you inhale too much of Elon's musk, you join the cult.

I like the idea of an electric car for the winter. Instant heat would be pretty nice to have. But if there are charging issues there goes the neatness factor.
 
I think Tesla's overvalued bubble had to burst some time, and it looks like it's happening now.
And i can't really see things improving until they release a sub 25k car. I think there comes a time when you can only sell so many expensive cars, before that demand grinds to a halt. Add on top of that competitors who're too grabbing some of that market. People have more choices than just Tesla now.
 
I'm not fully convinced whatever nonsense Musk has done with Twitter is directly correlated yet. I think it's more related to:

1: The Chinese market was being heavily relied on for continuous growth, and the Chinese market would much rather have Chinese companies fill that electrical growth now that they are up and running.

But, more importantly and likely a larger effect even if the first point hadn't happened:

2: Tesla was much more exposed than any other automaker to the tech bubble at large. That ten year-ish period of "borrow whatever you want to dump into stocks because it's free money anyway and the investment might pay off tenfold" following Obama's first term that the Fed has shown it absolutely has no interest in allowing to continue if it means inflation gets under control. It's why even companies that are performing no different than they were 6 months ago like Microsoft have taken a bit of a beating.
 
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I think Tesla's overvalued bubble had to burst some time, and it looks like it's happening now.
And i can't really see things improving until they release a sub 25k car. I think there comes a time when you can only sell so many expensive cars, before that demand grinds to a halt. Add on top of that competitors who're too grabbing some of that market. People have more choices than just Tesla now.
The most common excuse or reason that I've seen thrown back at my cynicism about Musk/Tesla, is that it's valuation reflected its status as a tech company, not a carmaker. I'd suggest therefore that to sustain a wildly high valuation, it needs to deliver on the tech front and not the car front. Autonomous driving was that golden ticket, but as time goes on it's becoming clearer that AD is not coming as quickly as Elon said it would, the hardware they've chosen might not be up to the job, and if only for the regulators, their 'lead' in the market is basically just hype.

I can't help but think the shot in the arm TSLA might need is to announce dividends. Sales are good and they're making money now, offering a payback that doesn't rely on liquidating your investment or placing your faith in the word of a shyster, would be sensible, IMHO... having said that, I'd also like to see the whole lot to collapse in an epic sea of fanboy tears. Musk fans have long since been one of the worst bunch of fanboys on the web and I've always found Musk to be a bit of a ****-stain, but to see what he's pandering to and stirring up on Twitter, it goes beyond just stanning for EV's or a car brand.

FlDloeKaAAA-x8d
 
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I'm not fully convinced whatever nonsense Musk has done with Twitter is directly correlated yet. I think it's more related to:

1: The Chinese market was being heavily relied on for continuous growth, and the Chinese market would much rather have Chinese companies fill that electrical growth now that they are up and running.

But, more importantly and likely a larger effect even if the first point hadn't happened:

2: Tesla was much more exposed than any other automaker to the tech bubble at large. That ten year-ish period of "borrow whatever you want to dump into stocks because it's free money anyway and the investment might pay off tenfold" following Obama's first term that the Fed has shown it absolutely has no interest in allowing to continue if it means inflation gets under control. It's why even companies that are performing no different than they were 6 months ago like Microsoft have taken a bit of a beating.

Good point. Twitter is probably just something that fell into the avalanche.
 
The most common excuse or reason that I've seen thrown back at my cynicism about Musk/Tesla, is that it's valuation reflected its status as a tech company, not a carmaker. I'd suggest therefore that to sustain a wildly high valuation, it needs to deliver on the tech front and not the car front. Autonomous driving was that golden ticket, but as time goes on it's becoming clearer that AD is not coming as quickly as Elon said it would, the hardware they've chosen might not be up to the job, and if only for the regulators, their 'lead' in the market is basically just hype.

I can't help but think the shot in the arm TSLA might need is to announce dividends. Sales are good and they're making money now, offering a payback that doesn't rely on liquidating your investment or placing your faith in the word of a shyster, would be sensible, IMHO... having said that, I'd also like to see the whole lot to collapse in an epic sea of fanboy tears. Musk fans have long since been one of the worst bunch of fanboys on the web and I've always found Musk to be a bit of a ****-stain, but to see what he's pandering to and stirring up on Twitter, it goes beyond just stanning for EV's or a car brand.

FlDloeKaAAA-x8d
He's literally on the leg.
Giggle Smile GIF
 
Used Tesla prices are also going down.

Not too surprising. The market is seeing competitive offerings from other manufacturers and the novelty of EVs has long since worn away, much like what happened with smartphones a few years after the iPhone first hit the stores. But unlike Apple, Tesla wasn't able to position itself as the prestige brand of its sector and buyers' attention is being pulled in other directions.
 
Yikes, what on earth did I miss in this thread over holidays!? Lets keep it respectful.

My 2 cents on the last few conversations:

The current stock valuation is a correction (P/E ratio did not justify the previous high), combined with present FUD in the world contributing to the annihilation of growth stocks. Despite this, Tesla has continued to expand no differently from pre-Twitter takeover days, and they continue to make approx 30% profit margin on their vehicles. TSLA may continue to dip below $100 in 2023 (and I hope it does, as I will stock-up again).

2023 will be an exciting year for the brand. They are rumored to announce their next gigafactory soon (perhaps Mexico or Canada). Cybertruck will begin production in a few months, and the IRA EV tax credits will begin... Which is partly the reason why USA orders dipped in Q4. Customers had the option to wait a few weeks to save up to $7,500 on their car. Pretty significant factor that everyone seems to have forgotten about.
 
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Yep. My parents (one retired, one works locally) have both expressed interest in owning an electric vehicle for the past year, with prices generally going down now I might be be able to convince them to get some seat time in a used Model 3 despite them not being fans of the Muskreant himself.
 
The current stock valuation is a correction (P/E ratio did not justify the previous high), combined with present FUD in the world contributing to the annihilation of growth stocks. Despite this, Tesla has continued to expand no differently from pre-Twitter takeover days, and they continue to make approx 30% profit margin on their vehicles. TSLA may continue to dip below $100 in 2023 (and I hope it does, as I will stock-up again).
...the reason the P/E ratio was out of sync with the previous high is because stocks are bought on perception rather than P/E ratios. Does beg the question what a P/E ratio is good for.
 
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...the reason the P/E ratio was out of sync with the previous high is because stocks are bought on perception rather than P/E ratios. Does beg the question what a P/E ratio is good for.
More like a combination of short-term performance and long-term anticipation, which is why the valuation jumps after each quarterly earnings call. If the previous high was based solely on long-term expectations, then the price was justified.
 
More like a combination of short-term performance and long-term anticipation, which is why the valuation jumps after each quarterly earnings call. If the previous high was based solely on long-term expectations, then the price was justified.
If someone is willing to pay for it, no matter the reason, the price is justified. A lot of times stocks have more to do with the people buying and selling than they do what is being bought and sold.
 
Literally Everyone: "What environment could be easier for a self-driving car to negotiate than a tunnel?"

Tesla:

 
Literally Everyone: "What environment could be easier for a self-driving car to negotiate than a tunnel?"

Tesla:


Why did the driver not immediately disengage the system and continue on their way with only a minor hiccup? We pilots know that automation can fail and it has on me several times. I've got the knowledge to simply disengage and the skills to continue the hard way.

Why are drivers not trained to operate their equipment?
 
Perhaps it didn't not see brake lights.



Why did the driver not immediately disengage the system and continue on their way with only a minor hiccup? We pilots know that automation can fail and it has on me several times. I've got the knowledge to simply disengage and the skills to continue the hard way.

Why are drivers not trained to operate their equipment?
Literally like.

At some point the DOT has to realize that the reason crashes happen is because drivers are morons who are not effectively trained and have no sense of responsibility.
 
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Literally Everyone: "What environment could be easier for a self-driving car to negotiate than a tunnel?"

Tesla:


Whilst the Tesla and its occupant were both clearly not up to the task they were attempting to execute, it's not their fault the drivers behind were too close to the vehicle ahead and/or weren't paying enough attention to avoid a crash. Yes, if the Tesla hadn't stopped for no reason the crash (probably) wouldn't have happened... but a 2 year old and 8 others got injured by improper/inattentive driving, not because Tesla's self driving feature is a bit cack.
 
Roo
Whilst the Tesla and its occupant were both clearly not up to the task they were attempting to execute, it's not their fault the drivers behind were too close to the vehicle ahead and/or weren't paying enough attention to avoid a crash. Yes, if the Tesla hadn't stopped for no reason the crash (probably) wouldn't have happened... but a 2 year old and 8 others got injured by improper/inattentive driving, not because Tesla's self driving feature is a bit cack.
Would-be operator of the self-driving car and other motorists certainly aren't without blame, however it does appear there was a maneuver to the left immediately prior to the sudden stop which may explain at least in part why other motorists were ill-prepared. Certainly blame for subsequent collisions lay more squarely on inattentiveness and poor driving practices.
 
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At some point the DOT has to realize that the reason crashes happen is because drivers are morons who are not effectively trained and have no sense of responsibility.
Driver assistance systems used to be a safety net that can reliably, though not inevitably, sort things out if/when you get it wrong - which would ideally be rarely, with proper driving skills. Autonomous driving seems to have flipped that on its head. It does the easy bit but relies on the driver to be the safety net when it gets it wrong. We've gone from having safety features on cars that aren't used 99% of the time, but functionally work 99.99% of the time, and 50/50 might save your life. An autonomous system that's less reliable, and used far more of the time is just bonkers yet the Tesla apologists will still try and justify paying extra for it.

Everything about the direction these systems are taking is about making the customer think they're offloading some/all of their responsibility on to the car. It effectively encourages drivers to be less vigilant, with the tech being unfit for purpose, and being sold as a feature, whilst being perceived and marketed as a benefit. Training could always be better but to a degree relies on practice, and the more we rely on cars to do stuff for us, the less practice we're going to get. Smarter cars, dumber drivers.
 
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Driver assistance systems used to be a safety net that can reliably, though not inevitably, sort things out if/when you get it wrong - which would ideally be rarely, with proper driving skills. Autonomous driving seems to have flipped that on its head. It does the easy bit but relies on the driver to be the safety net when it gets it wrong. We've gone from having safety features on cars that aren't used 99% of the time, but functionally work 99.99% of the time, and 50/50 might save your life. An autonomous system that's less reliable, and used far more of the time is just bonkers yet the Tesla apologists will still try and justify paying extra for it.

Everything about the direction these systems are taking is about making the customer think they're offloading some/all of their responsibility on to the car. It effectively encourages drivers to be less vigilant, with the tech being unfit for purpose, and being sold as a feature, whilst being perceived and marketed as a benefit. Training could always be better but to a degree relies on practice, and the more we rely on cars to do stuff for us, the less practice we're going to get. Smarter cars, dumber drivers.
Almost all of airline pilot/jet pilot training revolves around the automation. This is my second time going through it. We all know how to fly planes effectively, just like on the ground we all know how to drive cars effectively (how to follow rules and make it go etc). The automation can make it vastly easier and safer...but only if you are well trained in how the automation works. If it weren't for the (actual) autopilot system there would be nothing for airlines to teach us. But ultimately the responsbility is placed on our shoulders and our lives and that point is drilled home with humbling effectiveness. Driver training could learn a lot. Pilots spend most of their time fully aware that anything could go horribly wrong at any point but drivers simply don't think like that. They expect that things will continue working as they always have and that's a total failure of training.
 
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I don't know whether people realize that Autopilot is not FSD. It's not even Enhanced Autopilot. This is the basic version of Tesla's cruise control lol.

So Elon just cut prices across the board. I'm really tempted to buy a Model Y now before March. Trying to figure what else would be nice at $55k that hauls all my junk and does 0-60 in 4 seconds
 
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I don't know whether people realize that Autopilot is not FSD. It's not even Enhanced Autopilot. This is the basic version of Tesla's cruise control lol.

So Elon just cut prices across the board. I'm really tempted to buy a Model Y now before March. Trying to figure what else would be nice at $55k that hauls all my junk and does 0-60 in 4 seconds
I think you need a Wrangler 392.
 
The accident occured while the driver was using Full Self Driving as stated in the article and report



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I think it's reckless that Tesla is using completely untrained drivers to beta test their incomplete software on public roads where no bystander has accepted to the terms of being beta tested against.

This whole desire to create autonomous vehicles seem pointless. If you want driving to be safer, you need stricter driving tests and better driving training. If you want better transit, you need to develop better public transit, like trains and subways.

Currently with Level 2 or 3 autonomy, the driver needs to be attentive at all times, but when the system works "good enough" people will start to trust the system too much, thus not paying enough attention to take over when necessary. Which has already happened multiple times
 
but when the system works "good enough" people will start to trust the system too much, thus not paying enough attention to take over when necessary.
It's not like there isn't an entire global industry which has already fought through this cultural problem and has many lessons to be taught. I can't tell if I'm just so right that nobody has a rebuttal or if people literally want these problems to continue but every time I bring up aviation there is zero discussion about it, no questions asked, no nothing.

All of this nonsense is very well esablished science and has been since like the 90s.
 
It's not like there isn't an entire global industry which has already fought through this cultural problem and has many lessons to be taught. I can't tell if I'm just so right that nobody has a rebuttal or if people literally want these problems to continue but every time I bring up aviation there is zero discussion about it, no questions asked, no nothing.

All of this nonsense is very well esablished science and has been since like the 90s.
Right, but flying takes so hundreds of hours of training. You have to fly for thousands of hours to be able to fly commercially. There are so many different regulations in place to protect everyone involved. And yet, fatal accidents still happen, even with autopilot on. The FAA is trying to revise training to reduce reliance on autopilot.


(The last bit here, specifically)
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) said Wednesday it is proposing training revisions to help pilots avoid overly reliance on autopilot and to ensure they focus on flightpath management.

The FAA said it was issuing draft guidance and recommended practices, and said it was important that even on autopilot flight crews "should always be aware of the aircraft's flightpath so they can intervene if necessary."

The guidance addresses a National Transportation Safety Board recommendation sparked by a July 2013 accident of Asiana Airlines Flight 214 (020560.KS) that struck a seawall at San Francisco Airport and fatally injured three passengers.

The draft guidance was also prompted by some requirements specified by Congress in late 2019 as part of reforms adopted after two fatal Boeing (BA.N) 737 MAX crashes killed 346 people in five months and prompted the best-selling plane's 20-month worldwide grounding.

A Congressional Research Service report issued in September noted the crash investigations "raised questions about the increasing use of automated flight control systems and flight crew interactions with those systems, as well as broader concerns regarding human performance and human factors assumptions about pilot reactions to abnormal and emergency situations and alerts."

The FAA said the advisory "provides a single framework for operations and training programs. This will help pilots develop and maintain manual flight operations skills and avoid becoming overly reliant on automation."

I think this in between level of automation, where people are still in the loop, is incredibly dangerous and should not be available for the general public to use.
 
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