Tesla Master Plan: Part Deux

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Model S Plaid with a new "Track Package" sets new EV record at the Nurburgring, 7:25.23. The Taycan Turbo S had a previous record of 7:33

The Track Package has new carbon ceramic rotors, one-piece forged calipers, and high-performance pads. The brake upgrade requires new brake fluid and a software update. The Track Package also gets 20" forged aluminum rims with Goodyear Supercar 3R tires



 
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From the leaked documents, its been revealed that back in January 25, 2022, a report on the "alpha" version of the Cybertruck was struggling with multiple basic problems with suspension, body sealing, noise levels, handling, and braking.

Many parts of the truck had to be hand sealed and some areas had no possible method to properly seal for the production version. The truck had handling problems including "structural shake" and "high head-toss accelerations". When testing braking, it recieved a score of 4 or "poor". According to the leaked report, some issues had "no solution without modifying suspension design." The car also had poor torsional stiffness

In May, the German newspaper Handelsblatt began reporting on the “Tesla Files”: thousands of internal documents provided to it by a whistleblower. Among those documents was an engineering report that might give some insight into why the vehicle has taken so long to come to market. The report, dated January 25, 2022, which WIRED has examined, shows that the preproduction “alpha” version of the Cybertruck was still struggling with some basic problems with its suspension, body sealing, noise levels, handling. and braking.

The contents of the report do not deal a fatal blow to the Cybertruck. As one veteran automotive engineer, who spoke on condition of anonymity to prevent backlash from Tesla fans, says, the company has enormous financial resources which will allow it to address the issues detailed in the report. However, he said, “my first reaction is I am astounded. These are classic mechanical automotive engineering challenges that you have in pretty much any vehicle. I'm blown away that they would be struggling so much with the basics.”

[...]

The internal dynamics and NVH—noise, vibration and harshness—report leaked to Handelsblatt contains test results measuring the performance of the alpha version of the Cybertruck against projections made using computer-aided design (CAD) simulations, and against internal benchmarks. In summary, it presents a picture of a prototype vehicle that’s leaky, noisy, and has poor handling and braking.

“It’s an alpha-stage vehicle, so it's not surprising that it’s some way off its targets,” says Andy Palmer, the former COO of Nissan and CEO of Aston Martin Lagonda, who has more than 40 years of experience in the automotive industry. Palmer says he’s surprised at the frankness of the report. “You’d be giving the engineers that wrote this stuff a good bollocking. You don’t normally write this down.”

The report says that the alpha version of the Cybertruck had to be hand-sealed, but that “there are a number of areas that we do not have a clear path to sealing” in a production version of the vehicle. This is an issue not just for keeping the weather out, but for noise in the cabin. Data in the report shows that the alpha version was significantly noisier than engineers had projected based on their designs, and that testers had identified 21 potential noise leaks in the body of the vehicle.

Tesla cars have a history of leaking, and the report hints that the Cybertruck’s unusual design may have complicated engineers’ attempts to properly seal it. “Body manufacturing and paint shop processes have struggled to seal bodies for optimal NVH performance in the past, and the Cybertruck design presents new challenges,” the report says.

Handling was also a concern for the alpha Cybertruck. The report noted a number of issues, including “excessive mid-speed abruptness and chop,” “high head-toss accelerations,” and “structural shake.” It said that the truck experienced “excessive lateral jerk during low-speed maneuvering” and that it needed to address problems with steering refinement and body roll. The EV’s strafe mode, a feature that allows the wheels to turn to allow the car to “crab walk” sideways had “only basic functionality.”

Braking performance was one of the worst areas of the report. Tesla’s engineers were aiming for a score of 7, or “fair,” on the Society of Automotive Engineers rating scale, but the alpha version achieved only a 4, or “poor” rating. According to the report, in January 2022, the Cybertruck’s brake pedal pressure pad was still under design, and so the alpha experienced “excessive pedal travel and inconsistent stop,” and “excessive pitch during friction braking,” braking during turning issues, as well as power braking instability.

“The brake performance seems serious. I’m surprised they’re not further forward,” Palmer says, after being apprised of the content of the report. Normally, the chassis, including the braking system, is the first thing that engineers work on, ahead of the body and other systems. “So to be only on prototype parts at this stage is quite late.”

The report also details the results of kinematics and compliance (K&C) testing, which is used to evaluate the ride and handling performance of an automobile. During a typical K&C test, the vehicle body is fixed while controlled forces or displacements are applied to the wheels. The results of such tests yield vehicle suspension parameters, such as camber and toe, a measurement that determines how much the wheels are turned in or out from a straight-ahead position. The report showed that the alpha Cybertruck’s performance showed a “significant gap to targets.”

The report lists problems against potential solutions, some of which are illuminating. The front of the vehicle had some issues where there was “no solution without modifying suspension design.” Against the problem of “too high camber gain,” resulting in, among other things, tire wear and alignment change with ride height, the entry on the solutions column bluntly states “possibly none.”

There are indications within the report of the problems that Tesla has had in building a truck that can compete with other electric vehicles in its category.

Torsional stiffness is the ability of a car’s body to withstand twisting. When turning, if the torsional stiffness is too small, the body will fail. Too large, and it will be difficult to turn and tend to understeer. The alpha truck’s performance was significantly off target, which might be concerning for Tesla, according to Palmer. “What's surprising about that is it's really hard to fix. It's fundamental. In your development, you can simulate it fairly accurately. So I’m surprised it's so far off,” he says. “It's a biggie, too, because fixing it adds weight and compromises the design of the vehicle.”

[...]
On an earnings call on January 26, 2022, one day after the date on the leaked report, Musk announced that the Cybertruck would be delayed until “probably next year,” arguing that launching a new vehicle would disrupt the company’s production schedules. “If we were to introduce new vehicles, our total output will decrease,” Musk said on the call. Tesla has since pushed back mass production of the Cybertruck once again, to 2024, despite Musk declaring in a YouTube interview in July 2022, just five months after the NVH report, that the design was “finally locked,” adding, with an audible sigh, “We got too carried away.”

 
Are these Tesla files documents actually publicly available? I run into paywalls on the German website. I'm most curious about the Semi truck.
 
Are these Tesla files documents actually publicly available? I run into paywalls on the German website. I'm most curious about the Semi truck.
The German newspaper Handelsblatt was the one that the whistleblower delivered the files too which is probably why you keep seeing them from a German website.

I bet Jalopnik has them though, but then you'd have to go to Jalopnik so maybe that's not ideal.
 
Are these Tesla files documents actually publicly available? I run into paywalls on the German website. I'm most curious about the Semi truck.
It seems like the files are not publicly available, because it has a lot of private information. The German site has a search tool for VINs or employee IDs to see if your personal data is included in the files.

Informants have passed 100 gigabytes of data to the Handelsblatt, which is said to come from the heart of the world's largest electric car manufacturer. The “Tesla files” contain more than 23,000 files. Some documents appear to show the salaries and home addresses of more than 100,000 current and former employees. Others presumably list customers' private email addresses and telephone numbers.

Your data will not be disclosed. You only receive information about which data types can be found for the respective ID or VIN. More detailed information is not possible from the point of view of data protection.

The results of the inquiries do not claim to be complete in the entire Tesla files. Due to the sheer volume and structure of the data sets, the editors had to make a selection as to which of the more than a thousand Excel spreadsheets could be included in the query tool. Therefore, the answer "no" or "not found" does not necessarily mean that the VIN or PN you are looking for is not included in the more than 100 gigabytes of data in the Tesla files.

(Google Translate)

 
From the leaked documents, its been revealed that back in January 25, 2022, a report on the "alpha" version of the Cybertruck was struggling with multiple basic problems with suspension, body sealing, noise levels, handling, and braking.

Many parts of the truck had to be hand sealed and some areas had no possible method to properly seal for the production version. The truck had handling problems including "structural shake" and "high head-toss accelerations". When testing braking, it recieved a score of 4 or "poor". According to the leaked report, some issues had "no solution without modifying suspension design." The car also had poor
Nothing unusual for hand-built prototypes.

Here's some significant news... News that I genuinely didn't see coming anytime soon. GM have announced they will also be switching to the NACS connector, including access to the Tesla supercharger network!



Between GM and Toyota, I thought they'd both be the last to make the switch.
 
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Nothing unusual for hand-built prototypes.
I disagree. There's a lot of fundamental problems with the car design that should have been realized before the prototyping stage. As the article states, discovering braking problems and torsional stiffness during the prototyping stage is incredibly late. These are fundamental problems with the design that they will have to redesign.

The alpha truck’s performance was significantly off target, which might be concerning for Tesla, according to [Andy Palmer, former COO of Nissan and CEO of Aston Martin Lagonda]. “What's surprising about that is it's really hard to fix. It's fundamental. In your development, you can simulate it fairly accurately. So I’m surprised it's so far off,” he says. “It's a biggie, too, because fixing it adds weight and compromises the design of the vehicle.”



With GM switching to the NACS port as well, it's likely that all other manufacturers will follow too. It's astonishing how Volkswagen dropped the ball on this. They essentially had a monopoly on charging and they blew it. The government had to step in to force Tesla to open their connection standard

The White House announced [on February 15th, 2023] that manufacturers of electric vehicle chargers must make them usable by all EV brands if they want to receive federal funding.

White House Infrastructure Coordinator Mitch Landrieu said Tuesday that the Biden administration's goal is to create "a national network of chargers that will work for everyone, everywhere, no matter what type of car or state they're in."
 
I suspect the torsional issues are so fundamental to the design of the car that they can't even be truly fixed, at least not without making the Cybertruck exceptionally heavy.
 
The report was made in Jan 2022, so likely testing results from late 2021.... A whole two years before production, using nothing but one-off non-production intent components. This was long before any of the IDRA equipment for the ultra-stiff megacasting components arrived. Far too early to make any sort of assumptions on the final product, especially for a company known for their frequent mech design implementations/improvements.

I'm not saying the first production vehicles won't have issues... They inevitably will, given the huge engineering feat they'll need to achieve. But the two-year progress between early prototype to production-ready will be significant enough to resolve many of these issues.
 
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The report was made in Jan 2022, so likely testing results from late 2021.... A whole two years before production, using nothing but one-off non-production intent components. This was long before any of the IDRA equipment for the ultra-stiff megacasting components arrived. Far too early to make any sort of assumptions on the final product, especially for a company known for their frequent mech design implementations/improvements.

I'm not saying the first production vehicles won't have issues... They inevitably will, given the huge engineering feat they'll need to achieve. But the two-year progress between early prototype to production-ready will be significant enough to resolve many of these issues.

I agree that pre-production cars are often crap, but Tesla have been taking money from customers for the Cybertruck for three and a half years, and they'd expected to start deliveries in 2020 - if they got to 2021 and still hadn't addressed fundamental design issues, then I'd suggest sheer incompetence and there's no excuse for it. Ford announced an Electric truck in 2019, developed it, have sold more than can make, and started delivering them last year. Rivian, a younger company than Tesla announced their truck only the year before Tesla, and started delivering about the time Tesla were saying the Cybertruck would be delayed until 2022. Cybertruck didn't even live up to claims made at the unveiling - at the unveiling, and so far it's all been down hill ever since.

... and yet Space Karen claims he knows more about manufacturing then anyone else currently alive.
 
I agree that pre-production cars are often crap, but Tesla have been taking money from customers for the Cybertruck for three and a half years, and they'd expected to start deliveries in 2020 - if they got to 2021 and still hadn't addressed fundamental design issues, then I'd suggest sheer incompetence and there's no excuse for it. Ford announced an Electric truck in 2019, developed it, have sold more than can make, and started delivering them last year. Rivian, a younger company than Tesla announced their truck only the year before Tesla, and started delivering about the time Tesla were saying the Cybertruck would be delayed until 2022. Cybertruck didn't even live up to claims made at the unveiling - at the unveiling, and so far it's all been down hill ever since.

... and yet Space Karen claims he knows more about manufacturing then anyone else currently alive.
I think incompetence is a little unfair to the engineering teams. I'd guess its more the result of unrealistic expectations and totally inflexible upper management. When you develop a product that requires a high level of engineering but then place aesthetics (and some arbitrary construction typology) as the primary driver of the whole project, I think you can come up against an impossible mission, or at least one that delivers compromised performance. Every other Tesla project has been developed with performance goals as the primary design consideration, with aesthetics secondary. This one has too much Musk.
 
I agree that pre-production cars are often crap, but Tesla have been taking money from customers for the Cybertruck for three and a half years, and they'd expected to start deliveries in 2020 - if they got to 2021 and still hadn't addressed fundamental design issues, then I'd suggest sheer incompetence and there's no excuse for it. Ford announced an Electric truck in 2019, developed it, have sold more than can make, and started delivering them last year. Rivian, a younger company than Tesla announced their truck only the year before Tesla, and started delivering about the time Tesla were saying the Cybertruck would be delayed until 2022. Cybertruck didn't even live up to claims made at the unveiling - at the unveiling, and so far it's all been down hill ever since.

... and yet Space Karen claims he knows more about manufacturing then anyone else currently alive.

Not sure where you got your dates from, but Cybertruck was estimated for initial production at the end of 2021, not 2020.

Manufacturing a BEV at high volume at a profit is extremely difficult. This is exactly what Elon was referring to. I personally like the Ford Lighting, but at the end of the day it is a reletive low-volume, negative profit vehicle. It's based off the existing ladder frame chassis F150, with batteries shoehorned where the drivetrain would normally sit. This was a bare-minimal effort in order for Ford to get a BEV truck into the market as quickly as possible before the competition.

It's an inefficient, lazy design, which is why Ford is now developing a proper ground-up skateboard BEV pickup for their next generation vehicle. This will be Fords true Cybertruck competitor, but it will take time to develop properly.

Also worth noting that Fords 'Model e' profit margin for last quarter was at -40%. They sold less than 4.5k F150 lightnings in Q1, so it's no surprise demand is higher than the slow production rate. Rivian, in a similar situation, faced numerous quality issues (bricking, tonneau cover recall/factory removal, unfulfilled features, no camp kitchen, no tank turns, etc), and they faced many setbacks while ramping production.
Like Ford Model e, Rivian have also been consistently losing billions each year due to these production difficulties and tooling.
BEV mass manufacturing and profitability is extremely difficult.

Cybertruck obviously was never a priority for Tesla during covid, whilst they were dedicating all resources to 3 and Y production ramps. There was also the insanely difficult supply chain challenges, battery supply constraints, chip shortages, shutdowns - It would have been an insanely stupid time to introduce a new vehicle and platform with the additional manufacturing headaches unique to Cybertruck.

It will ultimately be a ~1.7 year delay from what was originally estimated. In contrast to Rivian and Ford, Cybertrucks' manufacturing plant is designed for much higher output... And profitability.
 
I'd suspect that the overwhelming majority of cars made in the past 25 years probably had alleged major issues with the design of the chassis discovered a bit earlier than right before they were originally due to start deliveries. That's "Roger Smith demands the C4 be changed to a targa months before it is to be first shown off" stuff.
 
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It will ultimately be a ~1.7 year delay from what was originally estimated. In contrast to Rivian and Ford, Cybertrucks' manufacturing plant is designed for much higher output... And profitability.
Gonna be longer than that. Every time a release date comes around, it gets pushed back. Originally due late 2021. In late 2021, it suddenly got pushed to 2022. Then January 2022 came around & it immediately shot back to 2023. Then as 2022 came to a close in November, it got pushed back to late 2023.

Well, we're approaching the halfway mark of 2023 & I won't be surprised as we reach Year #2 past "Late 2021" if it goes into 2024.
 
Gonna be longer than that. Every time a release date comes around, it gets pushed back. Originally due late 2021. In late 2021, it suddenly got pushed to 2022. Then January 2022 came around & it immediately shot back to 2023. Then as 2022 came to a close in November, it got pushed back to late 2023.

Well, we're approaching the halfway mark of 2023 & I won't be surprised as we reach Year #2 past "Late 2021" if it goes into 2024.

Based on the factory progress, I personally bet we'll be seeing production begin in the next few months, with limited customer deliveries before the end of the year... Followed by a steady production rump increase in early 2024.
 
In contrast to Rivian and Ford, Cybertrucks' manufacturing plant is designed for much higher output... And profitability.
Do you honestly think that Ford's manufacturing process for the F-150 Lightning isn't designed for high output and profitability? Rivian, I get, but Ford? Especially when it comes to the F-150.
 
Do you honestly think that Ford's manufacturing process for the F-150 Lightning isn't designed for high output and profitability? Rivian, I get, but Ford? Especially when it comes to the F-150.

Yes. Buuut F150 lightning production will at least contribute to Fords long-term economies of scale goals. They plan on reaching profit from their EV devision by the end of 2026. Everything they learn from current F150 lightning production will contribute towards that goal, their next-gen vehicle and factory designs.

For production numbers, Ford are 'targeting' a run rate of 150k by the end of this year. Tesla has told suppliers to prepare for a 375k Cybertruck run rate each year, so take both with a grain of salt.
 
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Yes. Buuut F150 lightning production will at least contribute to Fords long-term economies of scale goals. They plan on reaching profit from their EV devision by the end of 2026. Everything they learn from current F150 lightning production will contribute towards that goal, their next-gen vehicle and factory designs.

For production numbers, Ford are 'targeting' a run rate of 150k by the end of this year. Tesla has told suppliers to prepare for a 375k Cybertruck run rate each year, so take both with a grain of salt.
I believe Ford, especially when it comes to the F-150. They know how to produce those more efficiently than any other products in their range and F-150s sell without even trying. Telsa's goal of selling 375k Cybertruck annually seems lofty. Once the people who "gotta have it" have it, then the market is pretty small. Design-wise, it's not a good vehicle for fleet sales which is where most truck sales come from. It'll likely be on par with the Hummer EV since they both go after the same market.

This is, of course, assuming the Cybertruck isn't terrible, which I have my doubts about. But since it seems like the thing keeps getting delayed again and again, who knows when we'll know for sure.
 
I believe Ford, especially when it comes to the F-150. They know how to produce those more efficiently than any other products in their range and F-150s sell without even trying. Telsa's goal of selling 375k Cybertruck annually seems lofty. Once the people who "gotta have it" have it, then the market is pretty small. Design-wise, it's not a good vehicle for fleet sales which is where most truck sales come from. It'll likely be on par with the Hummer EV since they both go after the same market.

This is, of course, assuming the Cybertruck isn't terrible, which I have my doubts about. But since it seems like the thing keeps getting delayed again and again, who knows when we'll know for sure.

Jim Farley has been realistic with Fords plans, I respect him. Remember though, even if regular ICE F150's have kick-ass volume/profit margins, they can't simply transfer the production benefits over to the EV equivalent. It comes down to economies of scale for batteries, reducing material costs, establishing suppliers and a million other factors. If they can save money by just reusing the ladder frame, then great! But this is an inefficient design for a BEV.

I've been watching Munro's teardown of the Hummer EV - There is zero chance that thing will complete with Cybertruck on efficiency or production volume. Too heavy, and too complicated - Even GM has given up on the Hummer. Beyond that, I reckon Cybertruck will outsell the current gen F150 lightning, as it will be more capable as an EV.
 
Beyond that, I reckon Cybertruck will outsell the current gen F150 lightning, as it will be more capable as an EV.
The Cybertruck might be a better EV, but it won't be a better truck, and that will hurt its sales. Just by the nature of the Cybertruck's design, it won't be a good fleet vehicle and that's what matters when it comes to trucks. The F-150 Lightning is just a standard F-150 with an EV drivetrain, that alone will make it favourable since fleets will already be setup for it.
 
The Cybertruck might be a better EV, but it won't be a better truck, and that will hurt its sales. Just by the nature of the Cybertruck's design, it won't be a good fleet vehicle and that's what matters when it comes to trucks. The F-150 Lightning is just a standard F-150 with an EV drivetrain, that alone will make it favourable since fleets will already be setup for it.
And outside of fleet sales, brand loyalty is still a huge driver in truck sales and there's heaps of data that shows truck owners don't often switch brands, so much so that it's been a major selling point for most of them for decades. An unknown quantity like the Cybertruck isn't going to sway any Ford guys or Chevy guys away until it's had several years to prove that it's just plain better than the trucks they know and trust.
 
It's astonishing how Volkswagen dropped the ball on this.
It's not astonishing, it's par for the course.

I don't even plan on owning an EV anytime soon but I think a lot of people have been convinced for several years that Tesla set the standard for charging software and hardware, and countless video reviews of every car on the market have confirmed it time and time again in all parts of the country in all types of weather. Nearly as many people expected VW to drop the ball and that's exactly what happened. I sense that company scrambling to get their ducks in a row lately, especially considering most of their offerings in NA (I can't even name them) are ridiculously undesirable and still quite rare on the streets. They can't get the Buzz and ID2 onto the market soon enough. I feel like the ID2 may actually already be a second-gen EV design for VW given how it's an excellent continuation of the Golf versus the anonymous blobs of the other cars.
 
Volkswagen built Electrify America so the DoJ wouldn't catapult their asses out of the US market entirely. As a result it's been built up/maintained exactly as well as you expect it would be for something VW was obligated to do.
 
Rivian announces that they too will support NACS


Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) today announced it has signed an agreement with Tesla to provide Rivian drivers access to Tesla’s Supercharger network across the United States and Canada. Central to its mission to electrify and decarbonize transportation, Rivian will also continue to expand its own Rivian Adventure Network.

An adapter will be available to enable Rivian's award-winning R1T and R1S to charge on the Supercharger network as early as spring 2024. Rivian will incorporate North American Charging Standard (NACS) charge ports as standard in future R1 vehicles starting in 2025, as well as in its upcoming R2 platform.
 
Rivian announces that they too will support NACS

Given how Rivian is closely allied with Ford, I'm not really surprised. Though anyone who wants a grab at that federal funding in the future is going to follow suit anyway, which would be pretty much any EV manufacturer looking to sell in the States.
 
Given how Rivian is closely allied with Ford, I'm not really surprised. Though anyone who wants a grab at that federal funding in the future is going to follow suit anyway, which would be pretty much any EV manufacturer looking to sell in the States.
You should expect literally every OEM to adopt the same thing in the coming months. Guaranteed they're all currently working on plans, regardless of affiliations. It was bound to happen, the data and more importantly the public perception doesn't lie.
 
You should expect literally every OEM to adopt the same thing in the coming months. Guaranteed they're all currently working on plans, regardless of affiliations. It was bound to happen, the data and more importantly the public perception doesn't lie.
Pretty much. As I said before there's really no reason not to since the charging infrastucture has already been built and paid for by someone else, and even if Tesla gouges on licensing fees for the connecting hardware it'll still be much cheaper now than it would have been a few years ago, when nobody was 100% certain about what direction that bit of tech was going in.
 
Volvo to adopt the NACS connector starting in 2025


As part of Volvo Cars’ aim to be a fully electric car maker by 2030, the company is the first European car maker to sign an agreement with Tesla, giving current and future electric Volvo car drivers access to Tesla’s vast Supercharger network across the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

Under the agreement future Volvo cars, starting from 2025, will be equipped with the North American Charging Standard (NACS) charging port in the region.

Drivers of Volvo Cars’ current line-up of fully electric cars, from the XC40 and C40 Recharge to the recently revealed EX30 and EX90, will be able to find charging locations through the Volvo Cars app and are anticipated to be able to use the Supercharger network with an adapter from the first half of 2024.

Drivers of future Volvo cars equipped with the NACS charge port that wish to continue charging in the Combined Charging System (CCS) of chargers will be able to continue doing so with an adapter provided by Volvo Cars.



SAE will standardize the NACS connector


SAE International today announced it will standardize the Tesla-developed North American Charging Standard (NACS) connector. This will ensure that any supplier or manufacturer will be able to use, manufacture, or deploy the NACS connector on electric vehicles (EVs) and at charging stations across North America.

The standardization process is the next step to establish a consensus-based approach for maintaining NACS and validating its ability to meet performance and interoperability criteria. The Joint Office of Energy and Transportation was instrumental in fostering the SAE-Tesla partnership and expediting plans to standardize NACS—an important step in building an interoperable national charging network that will work for all EV drivers.

This is probably the nail in the coffin for NACS to become the main connector in the US
 
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