The F1 driver transfer discussion/speculation archiveFormula 1

[Liquid]

It would actually make for an interesting story, though. If Hamilton wins this year, both he and Vettel have four titles.

By the by Rosberg would set a record of being the first driver to win the opening three rounds and not win the championship.

But many of the same criticisms that can be levelled at one can be levelled at the other - that they won because they had the best car. So how does Hamilton separate himself from Vettel as the better driver? By going to Ferrari and doing what Vettel couldn't.

Hamilton moved to Mercedes-Benz at exactly the right time; just as they started designing a winner, new regs or not. I don't think he would have done much better in Schumacher's Merc and his 2009 with McLaren showed how bad it can be for a top driver in a crap car.

I personally don't think he would move to Ferrari, or anyone else for that matter, unless he was confident that they were onto a winner. Is he the kind of driver who can do well in bad cars? His early career suggests not but he has matured somewhat since then. But if he did move and Ferrari were still 2nd best and then he wins a title... that would be a great achievement. Something Vettel has not yet done and something Alonso sadly never did.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

I personally don't think he would move to Ferrari, or anyone else for that matter, unless he was confident that they were onto a winner. Is he the kind of driver who can do well in bad cars? His early career suggests not but he has matured somewhat since then. But if he did move and Ferrari were still 2nd best and then he wins a title... that would be a great achievement. Something Vettel has not yet done and something Alonso sadly never did.

There's this unspoken rule that when you win three titles, you become a legend of the sport. So what do you do after your third? Sure, you can chase Schumacher's record of seven, but you'll only ever be the guy who broke Schumacher's record, not the guy who did the unprecedented as he did (and even then, Sébastien Loeb has nine World Championships). When you're in Hamilton's position and Vettel is likely to go down in history as someone equally good, you need something more to set you apart. That's why I like this story, even if it is Horner stirring the pot. It could end in absolute triumph, with Hamilton doing what Vettel never could; or it could end in absolute disaster, with Vettel taking an opportunity Hamilton consciously rejected and succeeding while he faltered. It's that sort of narrative that fans will be talking about thirty years from now.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Rosberg has re-signed with Mercedes; it's believed to be a two-year deal.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Rio Haryanto's Manor seat is reportedly under threat, as his deal only guarantees funding for this race. Jordan King has been hinted as a potential replacement.

Spoiler

But let's give it up for Ted Kravitz, who has once again managed to grossly misrepresent the abilities of a British driver. King might have won GP2 races, but he's only won the sprint rounds, and only after finishing eighth in the feature race. Anyone who has been following the series can tell that King isn't a serious, long-term prospect.

Secondly, Kravitz conveniently forgot to mention that Haryanto's management is still working out a deal and that this is the second time this season that they've had to do it; it's pretty clear that Haryanto is on a rolling contract, but if there's a chance for another British driver to under-perform, let's not allow those pesky little facts get in the way.

 

[Samus]

Rosberg has re-signed with Mercedes; it's believed to be a two-year deal.

2018 silly season for the 2019 season is certainly going to be very interesting.

Rosberg
Hamilton
Vettel
Ricciardo
Alonso

All potentially reaching the end of their contracts if they don't extend in the meantime. Likely why Rosberg only signed for two years, that's when doors will be open as who knows the pack order by then.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Esteban Gutiérrez has apparently said that he has a contract for 2017, but he hasn't said who it is with. I say "apparently" because I can't actually find the relevant quote. I find this very curious because Charles Leclerc has said that winning the GP3 title is key to his ambitions of joining the grid in 2017; he wants to do what Kvyat and Bottas did and bypass GP2 altogether. I can't imagine that Leclerc would be looking at any team other than Haas, which raises the question of who Gutiérrez has a contract with. Of course, it could mean that he returns to a testing role.

Elsewhere, Kevin Magnussen has said that he is focused solely on Renault for 2017, and I doubt that the team will drop him.

Likely why Rosberg only signed for two years, that's when doors will be open as who knows the pack order by then.

I have heard that he wanted three years and Wolff wanted one, so two years was the obvious compromise. But that excuse gets trotted out every time something like this happens. I wouldn't be surprised if your prediction comes true; during FP2 in Budapest, there was an interesting discussion about the logic behind staggering driver contracts, or having them due to expire simultaneously.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Interesting observation on Sauber from Sky during FP2 - is this the end of the saga?

They, like so many of us, made the connection between Longbow Finance and Marcus Ericsson's backers. But they noted that the rumoured amount Longbow invested - around €20 million - is probably only enough to keep the team running to the end of the season, but all of the language from the team and analysis in the media suggests that this is a long-term partnership.

So the question is why invest the way they did? If they were only interested in protecting Ericsson's future, it would be easy enough to bankroll a seat elsewhere, and probably cheaper, too.

 

[mustafur]

So Gasly just Dominated both races at Hungary and is now leading the championship, I would be surprised if Redbull get anyone else apart from him now to replace Kyvat, even if he doesn't win the championship he has shown plenty of speed this season to deserve the call up.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

So Gasly just Dominated both races at Hungary and is now leading the championship, I would be surprised if Redbull get anyone else apart from him now to replace Kyvat, even if he doesn't win the championship he has shown plenty of speed this season to deserve the call up.

Gasly is still pretty inconsistent. Sure, he just won two feature races - but before then, he hadn't won anything for two years. I think he needs to do more to demonstrate that he can cut it in Formula One.

 

[mustafur]

He came 2nd in Formula 3.5 in 2014 including scoring more then anyone in the 2nd half the season.

And speed is really all that matters your not going to get the finished product as soon as they are in F1.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

He came 2nd in Formula 3.5 in 2014 including scoring more then anyone in the 2nd half the season.

And speed is really all that matters your not going to get the finished product as soon as they are in F1.

I would be worried about his apparent inability to convert grid position to race results. When he has qualified down the order, he struggles to move up by race end. He's not as bad as Alex Lynn, but he needs work.

 

[Clark]

I've found that the only good F1 drivers from GP2 are the ones that win it in their first season. (Give or take a few exceptions like Grosjean who had more than one season or Perez who never won it).

Drivers who won it in their first season; Rosberg, Hamilton, Glock (who never really had a decent F1 car apart from '09), Hulkenberg.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

I would be worried about his apparent inability to convert grid position to race results. When he has qualified down the order, he struggles to move up by race end. He's not as bad as Alex Lynn, but he needs work.

To put this in perspective, there was a move that Sirotkin made on Nato yesterday that was as emphatic as it was decisive. It wasn't opportunistic or aggressive, just very, very assertive; the kind of move where you could spend lap after painstaking lap setting it up and nevet actually executing it for over-thinking it (and the sort of move Sirotkin was known for in 2015). I haven't seen Gasly do anything like this - he's capable of controlling a race from the front, and of making his strategy work, but if it comes down to two drivers with the same strategy on the same piece of road, then I wouldn't back Gasly to make the move work.

 

[mustafur]

To put this in perspective, there was a move that Sirotkin made on Nato yesterday that was as emphatic as it was decisive. It wasn't opportunistic or aggressive, just very, very assertive; the kind of move where you could spend lap after painstaking lap setting it up and nevet actually executing it for over-thinking it (and the sort of move Sirotkin was known for in 2015). I haven't seen Gasly do anything like this - he's capable of controlling a race from the front, and of making his strategy work, but if it comes down to two drivers with the same strategy on the same piece of road, then I wouldn't back Gasly to make the move work.

But I would back Gasly to be half the field ahead most of the time.

The FIAs killing of F3.5 has ruined F1s best feeder series, because it rarely got any journeyman taking good seats, so the talent can come in and show there stuff without being massively disadvantaged and the drivers that have came from there is a much better list then GP2 overall especially in the 2010s.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Ted Kravitz asking Éric Boullier an interesting question: if Haryanto is out of a drive, will McLaren place Vandoorne at Manor until the end of the season the way Red Bull placed Ricciardo at HRT in 2011?

Boullier deflected the question, but at least it makes more sense than Jordan King, who can't actually get a superlicence until the end of the year at the earliest.

The FIAs killing of F3.5 has ruined F1s best feeder series

The definition of "best feeder series" alternated depending on the line-up. When Bianchi and Frijns were racing in FR3.5, that was the best place to be. But arguably GP2 was the better series to be in last year. There are plenty of drivers with potential - like Kevin Korjus and Tio Ellinas - who made the wrong decision at the wrong time and lost a chance at Formula One. A world with GP2 and FR3.5 competing with one another was never going to be sustainable; the feeder series needed to be streamlined.

 

[mustafur]

2014 was the last half decent F3.5 season because the FIA changed the superlicense rules for 2015.

The problem is GP2 needs to cut off drivers that stay too long it kills the series, and the massive cost compared to other series means it was filled with more pay drivers, Gasly is pretty much the first redbull driver that has done GP2 as a priority.

 

[Clark]

Yeah I think two maybe seasons at most for GP2 drivers. Let's be honest in the current climate even if you win the title on your third try pure unlikely to get an F1 drive unless you have a huge chunk of money to give a team, even then you'd struggle.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Sergio Pérez keeps saying that he's not committed to Force India for 2017, despite Vijay Mallya's claim that he has a contract with the team. This has led to speculation that he could be Renault-bound, which opens up all sorts of permutations and combinations - if he goes, I would expect Mercedes to place Wehrlein at Force India and draft Ocon into the Manor seat.

 

[Samus]

Sergio Pérez keeps saying that he's not committed to Force India for 2017, despite Vijay Mallya's claim that he has a contract with the team. This has led to speculation that he could be Renault-bound, which opens up all sorts of permutations and combinations - if he goes, I would expect Mercedes to place Wehrlein at Force India and draft Ocon into the Manor seat.

Interestingly he was apparently so close to signing for Renault in 2016 they already did some promo shots and put them on his website. They were obviously never used but someone found them snooping around as the web guys forgot to delete them.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Sky are suggesting that Williams won't keep Massa, though Davidson thinks Massa already has a pretty good idea of where he will be racing in 2017.

 

[mustafur]

Button will likely take the Seat, if Massa is staying in F1 the only seat that seems to make sense is Renault.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

I can't see what Massa would offer Renault.

 

[MagpieRacer]

I can see Magnussen and Perez at Renault next season quite easily. Massa if he does leave Williams won't be in F1 as he simply wouldn't have anywhere to go unless Force India took him.

 

[mustafur]

I can't see Massa in F1 if he isn't at Williams or Renault, I don't see force India signing him.

This is just going by his situation by itself, I think Perez would probably go to Renault as that seems like his only realistic shot at getting future wins.

Massa is on decent money at Williams and is very experienced, this would appeal to the likes of Renault far more then Force India, who historically don't pay drivers well and don't have the cash to spend.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

A rumour that refuses to die: Carlos Sainz Jr to Renault.

 

[FutureF1]

My question is, if Perez moves to Renault, where does that leave Ocon? Wherein goes to Force India. And he goes to Manor?

That leaves Massa without a seat as Button is likely to go to Williams to make way for Vandoorne.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

My question is, if Perez moves to Renault, where does that leave Ocon? Wherein goes to Force India. And he goes to Manor?

I imagine that's where Mercedes would place him. It would give Wehrlein an opportunity to develop further while Ocon waits in the wings.

 

[Eva]

I actually like how Mercedes are using Manor as a B team to scout talent further. It puts Manor in a far better position to make financial gains, especially if they routinely get people like Wehrlein and Ocon. I wouldn't be stunned if next year Wehrlein and Ocon were teammates to be honest.

 

[Bram Turismo]

I can't see what Massa would offer Renault.

To be honest, there is a whole wave of old F1 drivers that I don't think have anything to offer: Alonso, Raikkonen, Massa, Button.

I don't really see how experienced drivers are to put old teams back to their former glory. I don't really see how Button's experience is going to help Honda produce a decent engine unit. These teams have their staff and heritage and know what they are doing.

I'd rather see new, young, fresh blood like Max and Stoffel unfold their talents in F1. Young blood eager to proove itself, it might actually make races very exiting.

But that's just my opinion.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

I don't really see how Button's experience is going to help Honda produce a decent engine unit.

Because at the very least they can gauge progress.