Time gap vs player percentile, GT Sport vs Forza Motorsport 7

[breeminator]

This week's Daily Race B has provided a great opportunity for some stats analysis, because it matches a FM7 monthly rivals from June 2018.

So, here is what I have recorded from that FM7 rivals:
Top time 3:54.405
My time 4:01.510, time gap = 3.03%
My percentile on the world leaderboard was top 1.92%, i.e. 1.92% of players were above me, the rest below me.

Looking at the EMEA leaderboard on K', we currently have:
Top time 3:52.824
3.03% slower = 3:59.879 = 1364th out of 15210 = top 8.97%

So the same % time gap of 3.03% has a massively greater % of players in it in GT Sport than in FM7, 8.97% vs 1.92%.

This has made me ponder why that might be. I can think of three main areas that could cause it:

1. Different player demographics - the player base doing daily races might be genuinely biased more towards the top end than the player base doing the monthly rivals in FM7.

2. Different motivating factors - the monthly rivals in FM7 don't incentivise people to necessarily try to put in the absolute best performance they can. If you've done enough to earn all the rewards, many people might not bother beyond that. OTOH GT Sport rewards everyone trying to do the best QT they can, if they want to achieve the best possible DR.

3. Different physics - maybe the GT Sport physics allow more people to get closer to the best time? My hunch is this is less likely than the first two.

I just found it quite interesting that there is such a big difference, and would be interested in any insights people have into why it's the case.

 

[kub_man]

Obviously avg pilot level (distribution curve) is more skilled in GTS.

 

[GOTMAXPOWER]

3. Different physics - maybe the GT Sport physics allow more people to get closer to the best time? My hunch is this is less likely than the first two.

The last Forza I played was FM6, if 7 is the same the physics will effect how quick players are. The cars slid around a lot (Whether that is or isn't realistic is a conversation for another thread) so you need more finesse to get your maximum on any lap, Gran Turismo is more predictable so you can drive consistently, I think that helps you get closer to your personal maximum.

 

[mthomas_95]

This week's Daily Race B has provided a great opportunity for some stats analysis, because it matches a FM7 monthly rivals from June 2018.

So, here is what I have recorded from that FM7 rivals:
Top time 3:54.405
My time 4:01.510, time gap = 3.03%
My percentile on the world leaderboard was top 1.92%, i.e. 1.92% of players were above me, the rest below me.

Looking at the EMEA leaderboard on K', we currently have:
Top time 3:52.824
3.03% slower = 3:59.879 = 1364th out of 15210 = top 8.97%

So the same % time gap of 3.03% has a massively greater % of players in it in GT Sport than in FM7, 8.97% vs 1.92%.

This has made me ponder why that might be. I can think of three main areas that could cause it:

1. Different player demographics - the player base doing daily races might be genuinely biased more towards the top end than the player base doing the monthly rivals in FM7.

2. Different motivating factors - the monthly rivals in FM7 don't incentivise people to necessarily try to put in the absolute best performance they can. If you've done enough to earn all the rewards, many people might not bother beyond that. OTOH GT Sport rewards everyone trying to do the best QT they can, if they want to achieve the best possible DR.

3. Different physics - maybe the GT Sport physics allow more people to get closer to the best time? My hunch is this is less likely than the first two.

I just found it quite interesting that there is such a big difference, and would be interested in any insights people have into why it's the case.

People are so used to Gr3 in GT that will account for a fair chunk of the difference I reckon. Generally the slower the cars the closer the percentage gaps are and vice versa. Below is how many have got within 3.03% in EMEA (and 107% rule in brackets, just for fun )

Interlagos Gr4 - 26.6% (81.1%)
Le Mans Gr3 - 9.0% (60.0%)
Autopolis SF - 4.2% (45.1%)
Brands F1500 - 1.3% (17.1%)

 

[zzz_pt]

I think way more people use a steering wheel in GT too. Given that Forza is pushing their esports competition with controllers, a lot of people who drive with a wheel and want some more and better competition don't play Forza.

I have no data, just what ai know from both games.

 

[Pigems]

I think way more people use a steering wheel in GT too. Given that Forza is pushing their esports competition with controllers, a lot of people who drive with a wheel and want some more and better competition don't play Forza.

I have no data, just what ai know from both games.

I thought Forza was a lot closer to GTS until I saw a few clips last week, physics wise it’s basically Need for Speed, I don’t even know if the guys were using brakes in the clips I saw, guys would smash into walls hard and then catch the player in front a couple corners later anyway, it looked waaaay less realistic than GTS.

 

[Nomadpt1]

I think the fact that your faster with ABS off, in FM7, means that every lap has diferent braking points between every player so the diference is more aparent in FM7.
While in GTS you are faster with ABS on so is very easy to hit braking points consistently, therefore times will be closer between players

 

[Sven Jurgens]

Does Forza have BOP or does tuning play a part?

 

[DC2_Evan]

Does Forza have BOP or does tuning play a part?

Sort of, but for online there is not. It's basically run what you want, full tuning and upgrades are allowed within that class (E-S, R, and X)

 

[Tired Tyres]

I'm D class in GTS but that is in 14 sport races in three sessions. In F7 I do the Rival event at Indianapolis against the ghosts of Indycar racers and I'm in the top 9% in Europe after three sessions.

Not like for like of course but as close as I can realistically get since I don't have Gold.

 

[breeminator]

I thought Forza was a lot closer to GTS until I saw a few clips last week, physics wise it’s basically Need for Speed

That's definitely not the case. FM7 physics with road cars feels pretty similar to GTS road cars IMO. FM7 race cars are more slidey, they don't gain as much grip over the road cars as the race cars do in GTS.

Does Forza have BOP or does tuning play a part?

For the rivals event I mentioned above, no tuning was permitted, it was basically the exact same thing as this week's GTS Race B, the same track with the same type of car. IIRC it even had the Huracan being used for the world #1 time as well.

 

[Pigems]

That's definitely not the case. FM7 physics with road cars feels pretty similar to GTS road cars IMO. FM7 race cars are more slidey, they don't gain as much grip over the road cars as the race cars do in GTS.


For the rivals event I mentioned above, no tuning was permitted, it was basically the exact same thing as this week's GTS Race B, the same track with the same type of car. IIRC it even had the Huracan being used for the world #1 time as well.

All I meant was the driving style needed to be fast. It looked like you needed to slide the car through nearly every corner in Forza just like NFS has always been, whereas is GTS you actually have to drive somewhat properly to be fast. That’s all.

 

[breeminator]

All I meant was the driving style needed to be fast. It looked like you needed to slide the car through nearly every corner in Forza just like NFS has always been, whereas is GTS you actually have to drive somewhat properly to be fast. That’s all.

No, definitely not the case, sliding is slow in Forza as well. This is a lap by the fastest hot lapper in Forza, the track limits have been tightened since it was recorded:

 

[Xlxy90]

No, definitely not the case, sliding is slow in Forza as well. This is a lap by the fastest hot lapper in Forza, the track limits have been tightened since it was recorded:

Look at how much faith the driver is putting on the astroturf not being made of oil!

Any trips towards the green stuff in GTS results in being flung rear first in to the nearest grandstand..

 

[The Babooon]

This week's Daily Race B has provided a great opportunity for some stats analysis, because it matches a FM7 monthly rivals from June 2018.

So, here is what I have recorded from that FM7 rivals:
Top time 3:54.405
My time 4:01.510, time gap = 3.03%
My percentile on the world leaderboard was top 1.92%, i.e. 1.92% of players were above me, the rest below me.

Looking at the EMEA leaderboard on K', we currently have:
Top time 3:52.824
3.03% slower = 3:59.879 = 1364th out of 15210 = top 8.97%

So the same % time gap of 3.03% has a massively greater % of players in it in GT Sport than in FM7, 8.97% vs 1.92%.

This has made me ponder why that might be. I can think of three main areas that could cause it:

1. Different player demographics - the player base doing daily races might be genuinely biased more towards the top end than the player base doing the monthly rivals in FM7.

2. Different motivating factors - the monthly rivals in FM7 don't incentivise people to necessarily try to put in the absolute best performance they can. If you've done enough to earn all the rewards, many people might not bother beyond that. OTOH GT Sport rewards everyone trying to do the best QT they can, if they want to achieve the best possible DR.

3. Different physics - maybe the GT Sport physics allow more people to get closer to the best time? My hunch is this is less likely than the first two.

I just found it quite interesting that there is such a big difference, and would be interested in any insights people have into why it's the case.

Look at how much faith the driver is putting on the astroturf not being made of oil!

Any trips towards the green stuff in GTS results in being flung rear first in to the nearest grandstand..

I got top 997 global in GT7 Sport in Suzuka time trial (on a wheel). I’ve been practicing for two days. Should I go for the World Series? I know I can improve my times.

Also, how can I know what percentile I am in worldwide? Thank you

 

[breeminator]

I got top 997 global in GT7 Sport in Suzuka time trial (on a wheel). I’ve been practicing for two days. Should I go for the World Series? I know I can improve my times.

Also, how can I know what percentile I am in worldwide? Thank you

I'm not sure if the same information is available for GT7, they seem to have made it harder for 3rd party websites to access information. For GTS, here is an example of a daily race qualifying time leaderboard on kudosprime:

Autodromo Nazionale Monza | 2020-03-08 | Leaderboard | Gran Turismo Sport | kudosprime.com

Gran Turismo 5 complete visual cars and tracks dynamic database, favorites cars, images and videos.

www.kudosprime.com

I don't know if you can access the same information for performances in GT7. You could start a thread on the GT7 subforum to ask there.

The only way to tell if you're good enough for world series is to practice more and see how good you can become. People differ in how much they improve with more practice, so while being decent after 2 days of practice is good, the question is how good can you be after more practice. You might improve enough, you might not, you can't tell unless you try. For what it's worth, I sometimes had top 50 performances in daily race qualifying in GTS, and I'm way way too bad for world series.